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Archives for October 2016

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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John Oliver: Police accountability.

Stephen: Gary Johnson is running his campaign…into the ground.

Lewis Black: Getting out the millennial vote:

Bill Maher with Sen. Al Franken.

The 2016 Pussy-footing around the Alt-Right Clown:

Lewis Black Black to the Future – The Longest Election Cycle.

Kimmel : The week in unnecessary censorship.

SNL: 2016 Presidential Debate:

Bill Maher: I don’t know it for a fact…I just know it’s true.

Trevor: Congress overrides 9/11 veto.

Jimmy Dore: Even FAUX News see through Christie’s BS.

PsychoSuperMom: Dear Internet Trolls.

Daily Show: “The O’Reilly Factor” Gets Racist in Chinatown.

VP Wannabe:

White House: West Wing Week.

Seth Meyers: Chelsea Clinton on life-long family attacks and Bad ’90s fashion.

Mental Floss: 44 facts about birds.

Jimmy Dore: Ted Cruz humiliates himself in one embarrassing, slimy phone call.

Samantha Bee: Maine’s personal Drumpf.

Sam Seder: Cruz’s pathetic phone banking for Drumpf.

Adam Ruins Everything: Why your AirBnB may be illegal.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Open Thread — 7 Oct

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It’s always a bit tough to figure out when companies make decisions that activists have been pushing, how much is because of those activists, and how much is the stated reasons. So Shell won’t be sending oil trains to Anacortes.

I don’t know how much oil prices had to do with it as the company says, and how much activists and environmentalists won the day. It’s great for Anacortes, and good for everywhere between there and the Bakken.

O’Penthread

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On top of the instrumental benefits of getting the hell around much faster, Sound Transit expansion will be good for the environment. It’s sort of duh, but it’s nice to be able to read some specifics. It’s nice to be able to say it will cut over 360 million vehicle miles per year, save 800,000 tons of annual carbon emissions. Rather than just I assume it must be because driving is still driving.

Live Blogging the VP Debate

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Because, why not.

Feel free to add your own commentary to the discussion thread.

6:04: “Kaine wins the coin toss…people are saying the coin is rigged, so rigged. Believe me!”

6:08: Donald Trump certainly isn’t “stifled” by taxes!

6:09: Pence seems to be rambling.

6:10: I see Kaine is wearing his commie child-slaying arugula-eaters flag pin this evening. Typical.

6:16: Somebody is going to be fired. The idiot who mixed up their ties.

6:18: Pence’s blue tie with that background makes his hair look blue. He should be a poll worker on election day!

6:21: Now that we have gotten past the early interupty start, both candidates are effectively filibustering.

6:23: Time for the “bikini graph”:

6:25: “Donald Trump has created thousands of unpaid subcontractors.”

6:27: Pence, “There they go again…” Laughter erupts.

6:35: I hate anecdotes in politics.

6:40: What makes Trump and Pence such a good team: One of them constantly pops Viagra, the other, Ambien.

A communist immigrant!!!!!!!

6:49: Contra Pence, Obama did not bring bin Laden “to Justice”. He had him executed.

6:58: The moderator needs a switch to cut off their microphones!

7:00: Does Donald know that Pence is saying all these anti-Russia things?!?

7:18: Clearly, the Clintons read the bestselling “Foundations for Dummies”

7:26: Shorter Pence: “I’m an anti-abortion fanatic!”

7:30: Statement of the night: Pence, “Look, he is not a polished politician.”

7:32: I was hoping for more debate on Donald Trump’s “personal Vietnam.”

VP Debate Edition of Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottleThe VP debate is tonight, so the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally will start early. Please join us for an evening of debate cheers and jeers over over a pint.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. For the debate, we’ll start at 6:00 pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Long Beach, and West Seattle chapters also meet. The Lakewood and Bellingham chapters meet on Wednesday.
On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Poll Analysis: Clinton surges post-debate

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Clinton
Trump
92.5% probability of winning
7.5% probability of winning
Mean of 300 electoral votes
Mean of 238 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

We have now had a few days for post-debate polls to trickle out. My previous analysis, four days ago, was almost entirely pre-debate polls. It showed Clinton with a 79.2% probability of winning the election with, on average, 288 electoral votes.

There have been about 20 or so post-debate state head-to-head polls released, mostly in competitive states. The results confirm the general wisdom that Clinton gained the edge from the first debate.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 92,456 times and Trump wins 7,544 times (including the 1,007 ties). Clinton received (on average) 300 to Trump’s 238 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 92.5% probability of winning and Trump would have a 7.5% probability of winning.

A couple of states showed some interesting changes:

In Colorado one poll aged out and we got two new polls today that both have Clinton up by +11%. This has moved the probability from 51.4% for Trump to 83.7% for Clinton. The state is still quite close, but the magnitude of Clinton’s lead in two polls suggest that Clinton now has the advantage.

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16colorado

The story is similar in Florida one poll aged out, and three new polls were released, all with Clinton leading. Clinton’s leads, however, are smaller at 4%, +0.2% and 5%. Clinton is leading in 6 of the 10 current polls. Trump had a 60.6% probability of taking Florida 4 days ago, now Clinton is up with a 62.9% probability. The state is still mighty close!

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16florida

Trump gains a bit in Iowa, not because of any new polls—there have been none since the debate. Rather one poll aged out. Trump leads in 2 of the 3 current Iowa polls.

Nevada gains two new polls with Clinton up by +6% and +1%. As a result Trump’s probability of winning of 66.8% four days ago has shrunk to 47.6%. This is, basically, a tie.

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16nevada

New Hampshire is over-polled because of a competitive Senate race. We lost one poll and gained two new ones in 4 days with Clinton up +6% and +7%. Clinton’s chances go up a bit to a 99.1% probability of winning today.

We have one new poll in New Jersey for a total of 2 polls. This one has Clinton up 6.4%, and so Clinton moves from a 78.3% probability to a 92.5% probability of taking the state.

In New Mexico, one old poll was replaced by a new (but small) poll that has Clinton up +4%. The previous poll had her at +9%. As a result, Clinton’s chances have dropped from 99.4% to 77.3% probability of winning the state now. The polling history suggests that Clinton is very likely to take New Mexico:

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16new-mexico

Two new polls, and the loss of an old poll in North Carolina have strengthened Clinton’s tenuous hold on the state. She now has lead in five consecutive NC polls, but the margins are small (+1%, +3%, +1%, +2.6% and +1%). Her chances have gone from 52.2% to 56.7%. Still, pretty much a tie.

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16north-carolina

In Pennsylvania we lose two polls and gain one new one. This has tightened the race slightly, but Clinton still has a 94.9% probability of taking the state. The polling history does suggest a tightening of the race, but Clinton leads the last 5 polls by small margins (+4%, +3%, +1%, +2%, +2%).

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16pennsylvania

Virginia loses one poll and gains two new ones. Four days ago, Clinton had a 99.7% probability of winning. Today, she takes all but 28 of the 100,000 simulated elections.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 03-Oct-2015 to 03-Oct-2016, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ). As we’ve seen before, Clinton is on the move upward, after hitting a “low” that still had her most likely winning the election.

Note that the polls have yet to “speak” to Donald Trump’s other problems that arose after the debate—his 3am tweet about an Hispanic model (Alicia Machado) and her non-existent “sextape”, Trump’s own soft-core porn video, Trump’s suggestion that his opponent is cheating on her spouse, Trump’s partial 1995 tax forms showing over $900 million losses, the Trump Foundation’s potential legal problems, his badly-stated comment about Vets with PTSD, and a bunch of high profile newspaper non-endorsements. If these issues affect the polls, we’ll see the effects over the next week or two.

Of course, things may not continue to favor Clinton. Wednesday is supposedly the “October Surprise” that will un-do her.

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

HA Bible Study: Genesis 11:10-24

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Genesis 11:10-24
Two years after the flood, when Shem was one hundred, he had a son named Arpachshad. He had more children and died at the age of six hundred. This is a list of his descendants:

When Arpachshad was thirty-five, he had a son named Shelah. Arpachshad had more children and died at the age of four hundred thirty-eight.

When Shelah was thirty, he had a son named Eber. Shelah had more children and died at the age of four hundred thirty-three.

When Eber was thirty-four, he had a son named Peleg. Eber had more children and died at the age of four hundred sixty-four.

When Peleg was thirty, he had a son named Reu. Peleg had more children and died at the age of two hundred thirty-nine.

When Reu was thirty-two he had a son named Serug. Reu had more children and died at the age of two hundred thirty-nine.

When Serug was thirty, he had a son named Nahor. Serug had more children and died at the age of two hundred thirty.

When Nahor was twenty-nine, he had a son named Terah. Nahor had more children and died at the age of one hundred forty-eight.

Discuss.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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A voter registration day message from the Late Show.

Jimmy Dore: War Criminal George W Bush is having a great time with paint.

Obama: Votes matter.

The 2016 G.O.P./Alt-Right Shit Show:

Jon Batiste: Hey, White people!

Adam Ruins Everything: Why a wall won’t work:

White House: West Wing Week.

Debate is What Catches De Fish:

Stephen: Elizabeth Warren rips Wells Fargo’s CEO a new one.

John Oliver: 2016 Scandals.

Olbermann: How to gauge Clinton’s lead over Drumpf.

Here is how they try to suppress your vote.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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