Archives for September 2016

Larry Wilmore does the Late Show.

Stephen: Are Russian hackers targeting American voters.

Thom: Exposing the Koch’s environment corruption.

Stephen with Congressman John Lewis (who goes surfing).

The 2016 White Nationalist Party Campaign Drumpf Campaign:

• Kimmel: Picking Drumpf is like picking a shirt.
• David Pakman: Drumpf polls at 0% among Blacks in some polls.
• Maddow: Donald Drumpf extremism cuts at America’s foundation
• Stephen: What Drumpf’s meeting to Mexico probably looked like.
• PsychoSuperMom: We are (mostly) all immigrants, you shmucks:

• Young Turks: Why Drumpf has no ground game.
• Thom: Drumpf’s one man Good Cop, Bad Cop routine.
• David Pakman: Drumpf DESTROYED by Mexican Prez, who told him Mexico won’t pay for wall
• Maddow: New poll says Drumpf African-American numbers are abysmal
• George Lopez’s: position on Drumpf has hardened
• Seth Meyers: A couple of things about Drumpf’s modeling agency.
• Drumpf on a really stoopid tirade.
• Maddow: Donald Drumpf nativist speech follows dark US pattern
• Young Turks: Remaining Hispanic supporters flee Drumpf campaign.
• Farron Cousins: Summary of Drumpf’s immigration speech—Immigrants are going to murder you
• David Pakman: Former Drumpf model admits she was working in US illegally
• Steve Kornacki: Nativist message costing Drumpf GOP support
• Joy Reid: Drumpf Foundation investigation
• Sam Seder: Michele Bachmann claims Drumpf was elevated to nomination by God.
• Colbert: Statesman Drumpf lasted about 3 minutes.
• Drumpf’s disastrous foreign “diplomacy”
• Kimmel: Drunk Drumpf in Mexico.
• James Corden: Drumpf goes to Mexico.
• Susie Sampson: Are Canadians down with Drumpf?.
• Stephen with Double Vision
• Thom: Drumpf could learn from the “Rat Park” experiment
• Ann Telnaes: Drumpf prepares for the presidential debate.
• Sam Seder: Right after Mexico Drumpf, “they don’t know it yet, but they’ll pay for the wall.”
• Jimmy Dore: Donald Drumpf pleasures praises himself over Dwayne Wade’s family tragedy.
• Drumpf’s immigration rhetoric: “rapists” and “criminals”
• Young Turks: Racist right rallies for Drumpf.
• Steve Kornacki: “Here’s your electoral problem, Mr. Drumpf”:

• Conan speaks with Drumpf’s doctor
• David Pakman: Drumpf’s doctor admits writing “medical letter” to please Drumpf.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf’s Doctor can totally explain why his note sounds like Drumpf.
• Seth Meyers: An interview with Donald Drumpf’s doctor
• Stephen: Drumpf’s extraordinary health report.
• David Pakman: Drumpf flip-flip-flip-flops back to “DEPORT THEM” in “major speech”
• Drumpf Models illegally hired immigrants without work visas
• Young Turks: Drumpf campaign manager’s insane military rape comments

Stephen: It’s finally time to cut off that Weiner.

Adam Ruins Everything: Why you don’t need 8 glasses of water a day.

Seth Meyers: A closer look at Clinton’s and Drumpf’s debate prep:

David Pakman: Overall, life is much better for most people under President Obama.

Farron Cousins: Sarah Palin’s head injury made her even more crazy.

The Flames in Maine Fall Mainly on LePage:

• David Pakman: Gov. Paul LePage (R-ME) is overtly racist.
• Sam Seder: Nutburger Gov. Paul LePage: People of color or Hispanic origin are the enemy.
• Proof that Gov. Paul LePage is a racist
• Maddow: Paul LePage scrambles as Republican support fades

Seth Meyers: A closer look at extreme weather events and climate change.

Stephen: Scandals surrounding the Clinton Foundation.

Jimmy Dore: Political news of the week.

Weiner’s Wares:

• James Corden: Anthony Weiner can’t stop.
• Conan: Weiner sexts some other things
• Jimmy Dore: Anthony Weiner’s penis destroys his entire life. Again.

Sam Seder: Shepard Smith goes rogue on FAUX—by casually NOT lying about voter suppression.

Farron Cousins: Surprise! Republican states are the real welfare queens.

Mental Floss: 25 parenting life hacks.

Sports Patriots:

• Thom: Kaepernick isn’t unpatriotic, Levi Strauss is…
• David Pakman: Does anyone see the insane hypocrisy of Colin Kaepernick smears?
• Farron Cousins: White people freak out when Black athletes speak up
• Young Turks: Veterans defend Colin Kaepernick’s right to sit
• Stephen: Colin Kaepernick’s bold stance is technically a bold sits.
• Sam Seder: FAUX News spokes-model Whitesplains MLK to Colin Kaepernick

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Stephen: Sarah Palin crashes and burns.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Seattle Transit Blog have published their endorsement of ST3. On the one hand, this is probably the most predictable endorsement of the campaign season. On the other hand, it’s such a refreshing change of pace from The Seattle Times’ uninformed screeds or Reuven Carlyle, all of a sudden and way too late, deciding he wants different financing.

Of course, I agree with them. It’s a great thing to be able to travel so easily to the U District and to South Seattle. Expanding the rail system is exactly the right thing to do.

Clinton	Trump
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 350 electoral votes	Mean of 188 electoral votes

We now have about 20 new polls since the previous analysis last week. There Sec. Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump in mean electoral votes 347 to 199. If the election had been held last week we would expect Clinton to win with near certainty.

The new polls come largely from swing states, and include: 2 AZ, 1 FL, 1 MI, 1 MO, 2 NC, 1 NH, 1 NY, 2 OH, 4 PA, 1 VA, 4 WI, and 1 WV.

A Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections, gives Clinton all 100,000 wins. Clinton received (on average) 350 to Trump’s 188 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would be expected to win with greater than 99% probability.

Basically, the newest polls don’t change the picture much. The only state to flip is Georgia, that went from Trump with a 72.5% probability of taking to state to Clinton with a 50.1% chance. In other words, Georgia looks like a toss-up. The change isn’t because of new polling. Rather, one old poll “dated out”. Frankly, Clinton’s standing is being driven by one poll from JMC Analytics that has her up +7%. I suspect this poll is an outlier.

In Missouri, a new PPP poll has Trump up +6%, which improve his chances of taking the state from 79.4% last week to 93.9% this week.

In North Carolina we lost one old poll and gained two new polls. The net result is no change: Clinton still has an 84% chance of taking the state now.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]