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Archives for September 2012

Headlines

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 9/5/12, 6:18 pm

Yesterday, coming home from Drinking Liberally, I was reading the paper version of the New York Times. And I guess it was seeing all of the headlines for the Op-Ed columnists all together. I noticed that all the headlines were shit.

They’re Not What They Used to Be doesn’t tell you what “they” refers to. People over 30 will say that about just about anything if given the opportunity. Maybe say “conventions” in the headline. The Elevator Speech refers to a common phrase that BoBo mentions in the piece. But again, it’s a common enough phrase, especially in the business world that just using that as the headline doesn’t actually tell you anything. The Hex on Paul Ryan is the least terrible of the headlines, and it’s not particularly good either. I guess you could probably guess that the hex is being picked as VP, but the piece probably spent more time on Biden than Ryan, so maybe something more VP related would be better.

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Free Ride

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 9/5/12, 8:02 am

Over at Seattle Transit Blog, there’s a discussion of the upcoming elimination of the free ride area, and answering some objections to it. While I generally agree with the post, this stuck in my craw: “while I would like to see more County programs that provide transportation assistance to the poor, giving everyone a break on downtown trips seems like a badly targeted way to do it.”

I’m not sure that it’s in the county’s best interest, in general, to separate things that help the middle class from those that help the poor. Programs tailored to the poor have a tendency to get the ax earlier than those with middle class support.

I readily admit that I don’t know what busing should look like downtown. And I support eliminating the ride free area (although I supported it a lot more before the fare increases). But in general, I don’t think it’s a good idea to have separate programs for the poor and the middle class.

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Michelle speaks

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/4/12, 10:48 pm

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/4/12, 3:42 pm

DLBottlePlease join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. Believe it our not, this will be the first week of the 2012 presidential General Election. That’s worth discussing. Oh…and the Democratic Convention is now underway.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter meets. And the Spokane chapter and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meet this Thursday.

With 236 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

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Open Thread 9/4

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 9/4/12, 8:03 am

– Desmond Tutu says Bush and Blair should be tried for war crimes.

– The terrible thing is that he’s right.

– Sure, Paul Ryan’s marathon time should be the lie that proves he’s a liar.

– What to do with the missing link if there’s still an EIS to do?

– One true soul mate.

– Theistic evolution

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Poll Analysis: Romney slips a bit

by Darryl — Monday, 9/3/12, 6:01 pm


Obama Romney
97.2% probability of winning 2.8% probability of winning
Mean of 305 electoral votes Mean of 233 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 302 to 236 electoral votes. If the election was held then, Obama would be expected to win with a 96.9% probability, and Romney with a 3.1% probability.

Only seven new polls covering five states have been released since then. But, on the heels of the Republican convention and the start of the Democratic convention, this seems like a good place to take stock of the race. First, the new polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
FL PPP 31-Aug 02-Sep 1548 2.5 48 47 O+1
MI EPIC/MRA 28-Aug 28-Aug 1200 2.6 49 46 O+3
MO PPP 28-Aug 29-Aug 621 3.9 41 53 R+12
NC PPP 31-Aug 02-Sep 1012 3.1 48 48 tie
NC SurveyUSA 26-Aug 30-Aug 543 4.3 43 46 R+3
NC Elon U 25-Aug 30-Aug 1089 3.0 43 47 R+4
WV R.L. Repass 22-Aug 25-Aug 401 4.9 38 52 R+14

Close as ever, the new Florida poll has Obama leading Romney by +1%. This poll has been taken as evidence for a lack of a strong convention (or Ryan) bump. But, who knows in Florida, the next poll may go strongly for Romney.

Michigan puts Obama over Romney by a rather weak +3%. The longer term trend suggests a much tighter race than earlier in the year. But Obama still seems to have the advantage:

ObamaRomney03Aug12-03Sep12Michigan

A surprise poll comes out of Missouri, where Romney leads Obama by +12%. This double digit lead is a wider gap than we have seen recently. But the real surprise is the increasing variability seen among pollsters. Just two polls ago, Rasmussen found Obama leading Romney by +1%:

ObamaRomney03Aug12-03Sep12Missouri

Three North Carolina polls mostly favor Romney. The two tie in the most recent poll. The two other polls give Romney a +3% and +4% advantage. With six “current” polls in the state, the weight of evidence is that Romney would win the state (now) with a 69% probability:

ObamaRomney03Aug12-03Sep12North Carolina

In West Virginia, Romney leads Obama by a +14%. Believe it or not, this race has tightened up since the last couple of polls.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 97,197 times and Romney wins 2,803 times (including the 330 ties). Obama receives (on average) 305 (+3) to Romney’s 233 (-3) electoral votes. Obama has a 97.2% (+0.3%) probability of winning and Romney has a 2.8% (-0.3%) probability of winning an election held now. The difference from the previous analysis is really too small to “make” anything over.

Now, let’s consider the longer term trends in this race. I’ve done as series of Monte Carlo analyses, conducted every seven days using all the polls from the last year. For each simulation, I follow the same rules of including only polls from the past month (and the most recent poll before then if there are none) (FAQ). The following graph shows how the election is “scored” over time. The middle (magenta) line is the median number of electoral votes for Obama. When that line dips below the dashed line, Romney wins. Above it, Obama wins.

The pair of tan lines show the interval of electoral college totals within which 75% of the results for Obama were found. And the outer green lines show the interval of electoral college totals within which 95% of the results for Obama were found.

Romney was at his best in the 4th quarter of 2011. Even then, his probability of winning the election was never greater than about 30%. Beginning in late January, Romney slipped into zero percent territory, and has been there until recently. He has now recovered to same place he was in late January.

The general election has just started, so we are at a point with much potential for big change in the standings. In 2008, we saw McCain begin to do, only to have Obama run away with it in the end.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Read more…]

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Labor Day open thread

by Darryl — Monday, 9/3/12, 9:30 am

Why Unions matter more than ever.

Roy ZImmerman: The Problem With Democrats:

“In 1968, France was a dangerous place to be for a 21-year-old American, but Mitt Romney was right in the middle of it.”

Bill Maher’s New Rule: GOP must admit George W. Bush exists .

The making of Labor Day.

The redevelopment of Yesler Terrace.

Chair Talk:

  • The Million Dollar Chair.
  • Jon celebrates Clint Eastwood’s ‘Fistful Of Awesome’ speech
  • The old man from Gran Torino crashes the RNC.
  • Bill Maher defends Clint Eastwood.
  • Clint Eastwood’s Comedy Central Chair Roast.

Bashir: Is Paul Ryan the fastest ‘Kenyan’ candidate ever???

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Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 9/2/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was won by milwhcky. It was the home of the Sikh Temple shooter in Cudahy, WI.

This week’s contest is a random location somewhere on earth, good luck!

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HA Mormon Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 9/2/12, 7:00 am

[HA Bible Study is on hiatus through the November election as we honor Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by studying the scriptures of his Mormon religion.]

Book of Mormon, Ether 11:14
And it came to pass that Ethem did execute judgment in wickedness all his days; and he begat Moron. And it came to pass that Moron did reign in his stead; and Moron did that which was wicked before the Lord.

Discuss.

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It could be so much worse

by N in Seattle — Saturday, 9/1/12, 1:54 pm

I’m fortunate.

When I was laid off from my job last month, I was eligible for continuation of my health insurance. I have enough money saved up that I can pick up the large portion of the premiums that used to be contributed by my employer. I was persistent enough, and knowledgeable enough, to navigate through the shoals of bureaucracy that lay between employer-based and formerly-employed insured status.

It was frustrating for several weeks. For instance, I wasn’t allowed to apply for continuation coverage while still insured. Then I couldn’t write a check for the first month of coverage until my application for continuation coverage was received, processed, and accepted. It took over a week after my check was deposited before my status was updated from no coverage to insured. Even after that change was acknowledged, it required a call to the PBM (pharmacy benefit manager), a business separate from the insurer, to update my prescription insurance.

When it all settled out, the insurance was reinstated retroactively to the first day of the month. But I still had to make sure that the claims rejected while I was in limbo were resubmitted (I haven’t yet contacted the lab that drew and tested a blood sample). Every one of those steps wastes money—customer service operators who could have helped someone else, clerks who had to open, photocopy, and file my applications, eligibility assessors who had to process my paperwork, personnel at my providers who had to send my claims to the insurer for a second time, computers that had to rerun those claims. It was only a little bit of money each time, but of course those infinitesimal amounts add up to big bucks when multiplied by thousands or millions of incidents. At least I get my EOBs electronically, so I didn’t kill many trees by generating all those papers twice.

My office visits and lab tests hadn’t made it through the providers’ billing systems by the time I became retroactively covered, so they had no visible impact on my wallet. Because the office personnel don’t know the alleged prices of their services, they probably couldn’t require up-front payment anyway. Not so when it comes to prescriptions … I had to pay the full retail price before I could get my medications. Once covered, I went back to the drugstore to have my credit card reimbursed for the cash I’d laid out.

As it happens, I take six “maintenance medicines”, prescriptions that I refill every month. All six are generics, costing appreciably less than the brand name versions of those medications. Even so, the full retail price of a month’s-worth of my meds was rather hefty — $445.74 (brand names would have run $864.67). After my coverage was restored retroactively, I went back to Bartell so that they could resubmit the prescriptions to my insurance. After applying the (appreciably lower) price negotiated by the insurer, and after accounting for the portion of that price paid by the insurer, my out of pocket cost for those six prescriptions came to just $11.98. I have very good insurance.

Similarly, were I not insured, the price of an office visit would be $219.00. My insurer had negotiated an allowed amount of $83.01 for that sort of visit, only about 38% of the alleged retail price. And my out of pocket portion of the insurer-negotiated price comes to a mere $12.45. To reiterate, I have very good insurance.

I knew it would work out as it did. And I had the resources to ease the difficulties of the bureaucratic delays. But suppose I didn’t have a credit card. Suppose I lived from paycheck to paycheck, with only a debit card and a meager bank account. Then, I would have had a problem. Then, I might have been required to choose between maintaining my health and buying groceries, or maybe even between medicines and rent. Forced into such a dilemma, filling prescriptions would undoubtedly fall behind food and shelter.

Being unemployed and uninsured, then, is a double triple-whammy:

  • You have much less money coming into your bank account
  • The bill for healthcare services is much larger than what an insurer can negotiate with the provider
  • You bear responsibility for paying the entire bill

I could go on. I could mention the uncertainties faced by providers; because of the myriad insurers with myriad rules and myriad methods of bill submission, they never know how much they’ll actually receive in reimbursement for their services (and they must hire additional staff to handle all those procedures). I could argue for something like Medicare for all, or for a sensible healthcare system like those in civilized nations (there are many models to choose from, all of which are better and less costly than ours).

Instead, I’ll just thank my lucky stars that my layoff isn’t the kind of financial and health disaster that it could be if I didn’t have resources. And I’ll pay my insurance premiums every month.

[Cross-posted from Peace Tree Farm]

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 9/1/12, 12:37 am

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Aloha, Hawaii!:

The Obama-Romney rap battle.

The debate between Inslee and McKenna.

Who is Paul Ryan?

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, South Carolina edition:

Pap: GOP bound to fail.

Thom and Pap: Obama endorses Constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United.

Liberal Viewer: The most negative campaign ever?

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

White House: West Wing Week.

The G.O.P. Multimedia Extravaganza!

  • Young Turks: Mitt on Abortion.
  • The Worst jokes from the convention (via Political Wire).
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: RNC 2012—Romney for President?
  • Mitt: “Say”.
  • Young Turks: Tim Pawlenty’s jokes at the Republican Convention.
  • Clint on Obama:

    • Clint Eastwood offers a rambling and surreal bit of “performance art” at the convention.
    • Raw Story interviews Clint Eastwood’s chair
    • Jonathan Mann: Clint Eastwood Talking To A Chair:
    • SlateTV: Eastwooding
    • Young Turks: Clint Eastwood and the invisible Obama.
    • Ann Telnaes: Romney talks to his chair.
    • Maddow: Eastwood’s terribly timed RNC meltdown
    • Sam Seder: Clint Eastwood, Mitt Romney & the RNC in a nutshell
    • Comedian John Fugelsang reacts to Clint Eastwood
  • Sam Seder and friends on Fact checking Paul Ryan’s RNC Speech (hint: full of lies!).
  • Thom: It’s all another Republican con job.
  • Young Turks: Mitt’s acceptance speech.
  • Young Turks: The Ryan acceptance speech.
  • Sam Seder: Ann Romney’s RNC Speech (or Tell Us How You REALLY Feel!).
  • Thom: How the MSM helps the GOP Big Lie.
  • Mark Fiore: The Love Me Mitt doll!
  • Thom: GOP’s nightmarish response to MLK’s “I Have a Dream”.
  • Mitt’s convention: Not going as planned.
  • Jon would settle for ANY truth in Ryan’s speech
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: RNC 2012, elephants and a Newt!
  • Jonathan Mann: Your Monster’s Come To Life
  • Sharpton: The history of Mitt Romney’s flips and flops
  • Young Turks: Buying Mitt Romney…The real Convention Is at Cracker Bay.
  • Sam Seder: RNC attendees throw peanuts at African American CNN camera operator. “This is how we feed the animals”.
  • Mitt accidentally calls the United States a “company”
  • Thom: Can Romney flip-flop from being wealthy and out of touch?
  • Young Turks: Paul Ryan blames Obama for S&P downgrade?!?
  • Sam Seder: Jan Brewer endorses Obama at RNC?
  • Mitt Romney: You didn’t build it…you DESTROYED it!

Roy Zimmerman: Mitt’s America the Beatiful:

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Maddow: Court strikes down Ohio early voter restrictions.

The Democratic plan for gun control.

Veterans who support Obama.

Liberal Viewer: Colbert in the tank for Obama?

Ann Telnaes: Republican VP candidates, past and present.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, The Idaho verse.

Romney’s plan to “strengthen” the middle class.

Young Turks: The Michelle Obama slave mag cover.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Recent HA Brilliance…

  • Wednesday Open Thread Wednesday, 5/7/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 5/6/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 5/5/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 5/2/25
  • Friday Open Thread Friday, 5/2/25
  • Today’s Open Thread (Or Yesterday’s, or Last Year’s, depending On When You’re Reading This… You Know How Time Works) Wednesday, 4/30/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 4/29/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 4/28/25
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  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Saturday, 4/26/25

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I no longer use Twitter because, you know, Elon is a fascist. But I do post occasionally to BlueSky @goldyha.bsky.social

From the Cesspool…

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