Archives for September 2008

Daily Kos just put up its third Hell to Pay poll, and I need all of you to immediately click through and VOTE FOR DARCY!

The winner of tonight’s poll will have an online fundraiser held on Saturday, and last week’s winner, Al Franken, ended up raising over $25,000.  That’s money Darcy desperately needs not only to keep pace with Dave Reichert and the NRCC, but also gobs of “independent” expenditures from the likes of the US Chamber of Commerce.

In a race that’s expected to be excruciatingly close, a couple minutes of your time right now could mean the difference between winning and losing.  So please, vote for Darcy right now!

UPDATE:
It looks like we kicked ass and Darcy won!  Thanks to all of you who cast your vote.

JP Morgan Chase to acquire struggling Washington Mutual. I suppose that means I shouldn’t continue to expect 3.75 percent interest on my savings account, should I?

UPDATE:
Okay, now the NY Times is saying that WaMu has been “seized” by the FDIC, and its retail banking and “other pieces” sold off to JP Morgan Chase.  But…

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation issued a statement on Thursday evening promising a seamless transition. “For all depositors and other customers of Washington Mutual Bank, this is simply a combination of two banks,” said the F.D.I.C. chairman, Sheila C. Bair, adding that for Washington Mutual’s customers, it would be “business as usual come Friday morning.”

I just checked, and I still have access to my account.  Not so sure about that sweet interest rate though.

UPDATE, UPDATE:
Largest.  Bank failure.  Ever.  (We’re number one!)

The Public Disclosure Commission voted to concur with a staff report today, finding the Washington State Republican Party guilty of numerous egregious violations of our state’s campaign finance and public disclosure laws, including at least $150,000 of illegal expenditures on behalf of Dino Rossi in the weeks leading up to the August primary.  Lacking the authority to impose a large enough penalty proportionate to the violations, the PDC has referred the case to Attorney General Rob McKenna for further prosecution.

This is the second time in as many weeks that McKenna has been handed an investigation of close political allies, following the PDC ruling that found the Building Industry Association of Washington guilty of failing to report at least $1.2 million in campaign contributions.  There is no word from McKenna as to when he might take action on either of these cases.  But don’t hold your breath.

As first reported here on HA, the WSRP flagrantly used “exempt” soft money contributions to illegally finance direct advocacy, specifically a pro-Rossi/anti-Gregoire direct mail smear campaign.  And as I wrote at the time, the case against Rossi and the WSRP was pretty cut and dry:

This isn’t rocket science.  It’s Campaign Finance 101.  All the political candidates, consultants, committees and parties know damn well what is or is not allowed.  And yet the WSRP chose to blatantly violate campaign expenditure laws that have been in place for the past 16 years.

[…] Let’s be clear, this is no mistake or accidental oversight; WSRP chair Luke Esser, allegedly a lawyer, deliberately and knowingly violated the law, feebly attempting to disguise these illegal expenditures by mislabeling them as “member communications” (a label that would not make these expenditures exempt, even if true.)  The WSRP could have run the mailing past the PDC ahead of time—campaigns do this all the time—but they knew the answer they would get.  Which of course is why they never asked.

The distinction between “exempt” and “non-exempt” funds is clear.  The former are “exempt” from normal campaign contribution limits, and may be used for party building, organizing and get out the vote efforts, but not for direct advocacy for or against a candidate.  The latter may be used for any purpose, but are subject to strict contribution limits.  Buy using exempt funds for non-exempt purposes the WSRP has intentionally violated the law, using large lump sum contributions from GOP fat cats like Rufus Lumry ($80,000) and Eastside developer Skip Rowley ($30,000), and from powerful special interests like the National Electrical Contractors Association ($50,000) and Walmart ($25,000) to illegally finance Rossi’s campaign.

But, well, I guess Esser just figures that breaking the law, and the inevitable fines, are just part of the cost of running an effective campaign.

No doubt the WSRP fully understands that it faces a substantial penalty for such a flagrant and deliberate PDC violation, but that won’t come until after the election, so no harm done.  No, if there’s a penalty to be paid ahead of this election it will have to come at the hands of the local media, but whether they’ll give this story the scrutiny it deserves, or merely brush it off as another “he said, she said” between two feuding camps, remains to be seen.

Personally, I don’t have much faith in our local media to express the outrage such deliberate flouting of our campaign finance laws rightly deserves, and I’m afraid that McKenna, now with two major cases on his plate, against his two biggest financial backers, won’t substantively move on either case until well after the November election.

And if my fears are proven correct, that means the WSRP and the BIAW will well learn the lesson that crime does indeed pay.  Voters will never know about the extent of these violations because our amen editorialists can’t be bothered to muster up the outrage, and the fines, however large, will simply be paid with more lump sum contributions from the same wealthy Republican benefactors.

What they hope to buy with all their illegal money is the governor’s mansion.  And you can be sure that they’ve already made the calculation that even a hefty post-election fine would be money well spent.

Yesterday, John McCain claimed he was suspending his presidential campaign, and this morning KUOW dutifully and credulously reported it—four times within a 2-minute segment—and despite the fact that the surrounding piece clearly contradicted the claim from the initial lead in:

John McCain has suspended his presidential campaign. He says he needs to help his colleagues in DC fix the financial crisis. But Republicans continued fundraising yesterday (Wed) in Bellevue. Cindy McCain and Todd Palin helped raise nearly a million dollars at a luncheon in Hunts Point.

So… exactly what does it mean to suspend one’s campaign while the nominees’ spouses are raising a million bucks?  Huh.  Perhaps Washington State Republican Party chair Luke Esser can clear things up:

ESSER SAYS IT WAS A GREAT DAY FOR WASHINGTON REPUBLICANS. EVEN THOUGH THE MCCAIN CAMPAIGN IS SUSPENDED. ESSER SAYS IT’S THE RIGHT THING TO DO. ALTHOUGH HE DOES HAVE ONE CONCERN.

ESSER: “You know, I worry that if Barack Obama doesn’t suspend his campaign, that he’ll be raising money, and he’ll be running negative ads against Senator McCain, and that may give him an advantage. But I think in the long run, frankly, doing the right thing usually has its own reward, and I think the American people will appreciate that kind of campaign. It’ll be refreshing.”

Um… so… Esser voices concern about Obama raising money while McCain’s campaign is suspended, at the very same time he’s hosting Cindy McCain at a million dollar fundraiser?  And the reporter doesn’t bother to challenge with a follow up?  I mean… what the fuck?

But it gets worse…

ESSER MADE IT TO LUNCH AND DINNER WITH FELLOW REPUBLICANS. AND SO DID CHRIS FIDLER. HE’S STATE CO–CHAIR OF THE MCCAIN CAMPAIGN STEERING COMMITTEE. HE SAYS HE FOUND OUT THE CAMPAIGN WAS SUSPENDED AFTER HE’D GONE TO THE MILLION–DOLLAR LUNCH. HE SAYS MRS. MCCAIN DIDN’T MENTION IT…

FIDLER: “We’re standing down in terms of campaign activity. We’re going to wait to see how these negotiations go.”

That’s right, they’re “standing down.”  Except for, you know, the million dollar fundraiser with Cindy McCain and Todd Palin.  And McCain’s speech in New York this morning.  And the political ads that continue to run nationwide.  But we can trust Fidler that other than that, the McCain campaign, both nationally and locally, has been “suspended,” right?

Huh.  This seemed like an opportunity for some actual reporting, so I called the McCain campaign’s West Regional Headquarters in Henderson NV, and surprisingly, they answered on the first ring.  They gave me the number for the Washington State campaign, who didn’t answer until the fifth ring (in their defense, from the background noise, they sounded pretty busy), and they assured me that McCain was just “trying to make a point,” but that no local activities had been canceled.

Finally, I sent this following email to the campaign (I’m ashamed to say, under an assumed name):

I have some time to volunteer for John McCain today and tomorrow, and was wondering if there are volunteering opportunities available while Sen. McCain has suspended his campaign, or even if your offices are open.  I’m in Kirkland, and am looking for something within a reasonable drive.

And a Don Skillman, emailing from a mccain08hq.com address, quickly and courteously replied:

Our office in Bellevue is wide open.. Ask for Moses..

Hmm.  It sounds to me like the only thing that was suspended was KUOW’s disbelief.

Both the Seattle Times and the Seattle P-I published editorials today lauding the recently announced Western Climate Initiative as a necessary and constructive step toward addressing an imminent environmental crisis.

The Times:

The Western Climate Initiative has overcome the most difficult step of any complex, worthwhile undertaking — getting started.

The announcement Tuesday of broad design recommendations for a regional market-based cap-and-trade program to cut greenhouse gases launched Washington, six other states and four Canadian provinces on the path of reducing pollution that causes global warming.

And the P-I:

Washington and other Western states have shaken off Bush administration-induced climate paralysis to summon themselves to responsible action. The states’ design of a cap-and-trade system for carbon emissions should help inspire an overdue national effort.

Washington, California, five other states and four Canadian provinces laid out a regional cap-and-trade system with incentives on all the right sides: in favor of energy independence, technological innovation and clean-energy jobs. In contrast to the let-the-planet-cook policy in D.C., there’s responsibility, good government and smart economics all in one.

But even when in agreement, our editorial boards manage to once again demonstrate why our region is so fortunate to still have two major dailies.  For example, the P-I gives credit where credit is due:

Gov. Chris Gregoire and other smart Western governors are wise to embrace the plan.

Whereas the Times…

In the absence of leadership from the federal government and the Bush administration, states around the country took it on themselves to explore workable, collaborative solutions.

Um… our “state” didn’t take it on itself to explore workable, collaborative solutions, our governor did… but God forbid the amen editorialists at the Times should actually mention Gov. Chris Gregoire by name, because you wouldn’t want to give her any credit for providing leadership, especially during an election year. Besides, we all know that Dino Rossi would have delivered the same kind of leadership because, um… he, uh, doesn’t believe in global warming.

I’m just sayin’….

The Great Schlep from The Great Schlep on Vimeo.

You likely saw it here first, but Sarah Palin’s preacher problem is starting to go viral, her witchcraft fetish even making it into the pages of the Seattle Times.

In fact, in terms of how this will impact the Jewish vote, it’s worse than the small clip I put makes it.  Over on Daily Kos, Kagro X noticed a segment that slipped by me as I was struggling to decipher the preacher’s heavy accent:

The second area whereby God wants us, wants to penetrate in our society is in the economic area. The Bible says that the wealth of the wicked is stored up for the righteous. It’s high time that we have top Christian businessmen, businesswomen, bankers, you know, who are men and women of integrity running the economics of our nations. That’s what we are waiting for. That’s part and parcel of transformation. If you look at the — you know — if you look at the Israelites, that’s how they work. And that’s how they are, even today.

That’s right, Pastor Muthee is talking about Christians need to take over the banks so that we can end the corruption of the Israelites.  Really.   Watch the whole clip and the context is pretty damn clear.

Sen. John McCain announced today that in light of the current crisis (ie, his plummeting poll numbers), he has suspended his campaign for President of the United States… you know, except for the TV ads, the field operations, the media relations, the fundraising, and some campaign stops.

If things don’t turn around pretty soon, I’d personally be more concerned about the Republicans trying to suspend the actual election.

Yes, that’s Sarah Palin, in her own church, receiving a blessing from visiting Pastor Thomas Muthee, who beseeches Jesus to finance her political campaigns, and protect her from “witchcraft.”  Max Blumenthal has the full clip, plus more on Pastor Muthee and his reputation for waging witchhunts against actual witches.  (Or, alleged witches, depending on whether you are sane or not.)

Of course, as the amen editorialists at the Seattle Times might point out, Palin is an Evangelical Protestant, and so it would be religious bigotry to mention her scary Dominionist aspirations and wacky fixation on witchcraft.  Still, if hundreds of thousands of Americans will refuse to vote for Barack Obama because they believe he is a Muslim, when he is not, isn’t it only fair that voters understand what kind of Christian Sarah Palin is?

As I have repeatedly stated, there is no state budget deficit, despite the claims of Dino Rossi and his (perhaps unwitting) collaborators in the press. Our current budget is actually running a small surplus, and the next biennium budget will be balanced, as is constitutionally required.  The question facing voters is not if the budget will be balanced, but by whom, and based on what priorities.

To call a revenue forecast a “budget deficit” is thus inexcusably misleading, as when one thinks of budget deficits, most voters think of the enormous federal deficits (only made even more enormous by the Bush administration) in which our government borrows money to pay for expenditures that far exceed tax revenues.  That can’t happen here in Washington state, under any administration, and to suggest otherwise, even through semantic inference, is simply irresponsible.

And it is equally irresponsible and misleading to suggest, as the amen editorialists at the Seattle Times relentlessly insist, that this projected $3.1 billion revenue deficit—the difference between projected growth in state revenues and projected growth in state expenditures at current levels—is the result of profligate spending on the part of Gov. Chris Gregoire, when in fact, as the chart above clearly illustrates, it is simply the result of declining state revenues.

According to a policy brief prepared by the Washington State Budget & Policy Center, while remaining relatively flat for the past decade, state spending has declined from 6.6% of personal income in 1995 to 6.1% at present.  Meanwhile, state revenues as a percentage of personal income will decline from 6.6% to a projected 5.6% by 2011.

Yes, our revenue deficit has been exacerbated by a worsening economy, just as the problem was masked by the boom years, but the real culprit here is not out of control spending, but rather a long-term structural revenue deficit that results from a tax system that overly relies on a steadily shrinking segment of our economy: the sale of goods.

This is a fact—a fact that is constantly and conveniently ignored in press accounts of this issue—and unless we eventually fix this structural deficit, preferably by shifting to a fairer tax system that doesn’t leave WA the most regressive state in the nation, our state government, and the services it is able to provide, will steadily shrink, regardless of which party controls the legislature or the governor’s mansion.

If the Times is looking for a legitimate budget issue on which to attack the governor, it is not state spending, which during her administration has thus far grown in virtual lockstep with growth in revenues and growth in our state economy.  Rather, the most substantive critique of Gov. Gregoire comes from the left, where she has disappointed fair tax advocates by failing to take the lead on much needed tax restructuring.

First she’s up.  Then she’s down.  Now Gov. Gregoire is back on top again in the latest SurveyUSA poll.  And as Darryl has pointed out, Washington isn’t the only state that has seen a similar pattern in its gubernatorial race in the weeks following the national conventions.

Darryl attributes Rossi’s recent rise to a now fading “Republican Awakening;” others have dubbed it a “Palin Surge.”  But I think it’s starting to look more like a “Republican Bubble,” and as we’re repeatedly reminded, often quite painfully, bubbles have a tendency to pop.

At least, that’s what it looks like according to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll which finds Obama up nationally by a 52% to 43% margin, an 11-point swing from McCain’s 49-47 lead in the days following the Republican convention.  Pop!

And what has led to such a dramatic swing in public opinion?

Just 9 percent of those surveyed rated the economy as good or excellent, the first time that number has been in single digits since the days just before the 1992 election. Just 14 percent said the country is heading in the right direction, equaling the record low on that question in polls dating back to 1973.

More voters trust Obama to deal with the economy, and he currently has a big edge as the candidate who is more in tune with the economic problems Americans now face. He also has a double-digit advantage on handling the current problems on Wall Street, and as a result, there has been a rise in his overall support.

McCain’s initial reaction to the financial meltdown was both baffling and befuddled, leading even conservative columnist George Will to question whether the senator has a temperament suited to the presidency. And McCain’s ham-fisted effort to pound a tenuous connection between Barack Obama and failed mortgage giant Fannie Mae’s former CEO Franklin Raines (apparently, they’re both black) is about to blow up in his face, with news that McCain’s own campaign manager has been on Freddie Mac’s payroll through the end of last month!

Since 2006, the federally sponsored mortgage giant Freddie Mac has paid at least $345,000 to the lobbying and consulting firm of John McCain’s campaign manager, Rick Davis, according to two sources familiar with the arrangement.

Freddie Mac had previously paid an advocacy group run by Davis, called the Homeownership Alliance, $30,000 a month until the end of 2005, when that group was dissolved. That relationship was the subject of a New York Times story Monday, which drew angry denunciations from the McCain campaign. McCain and his aides have vehemently objected to suggestions that Davis has ties to Freddie Mac—an especially sensitive issue given that the Republican presidential candidate has blamed “the lobbyists, politicians and bureaucrats” for the mortgage crisis that recently prompted the Bush administration to take over both Freddie Mac and its companion, Fannie Mae, and put them under federal conservatorship.

But neither the Times story—nor the McCain campaign—revealed that Davis’s lobbying firm, Davis Manafort, based in Washington, D.C., continued to receive $15,000 a month from Freddie Mac until last month—long after the Homeownership Alliance had been terminated. The two sources, who requested anonymity discussing sensitive information, told NEWSWEEK that Davis himself approached Freddie Mac in 2006 and asked for a new consulting arrangement that would allow his firm to continue to be paid. The arrangement was approved by Hollis McLoughlin, Freddie Mac’s senior vice president for external relations, because “he [Davis] was John McCain’s campaign manager and it was felt you couldn’t say no,” said one of the sources.

Huh.  I guess McCain should have talked to Davis before angrily denying that he had anything to do with Freddie Mac.

When asked about his own campaign manager’s associations with the mortgage giants, McCain, in an interview with CNBC on Sunday night, said that Davis “has had nothing to do” with the Homeownship Alliance since it disbanded and “I’ll be glad to have his record examined by anybody who wants to look at it.”

Or maybe, McCain and Davis were just plain lying?

Davis, in a conference call arranged by the McCain campaign Monday, said, “It’s been over three years since there’s been any activity in this area and since I had any contact with those folks.”

You know, except for his consulting firm cashing their checks.  (Only in DC would being paid for doing nothing be advertised as evidence of ethical absolution.)

Many have attributed the recent Republican Bubble to Sarah Palin, whose nomination undoubtedly energized the far-right Republican base, but I’d worried that much of the bounce was due to the surprising success of McCain’s facially ridiculous attempt to rebrand himself as a Beltway outsider dedicated to bringing sweeping change to our nation’s capital.  Well, if so, that success now appears to have been momentary.

As one of the Senate’s most fervent free traders and deregulators, McCain’s fingerprints are all over this financial mess, and he has surrounded himself with lobbyists who have enriched themselves on behalf of many of the failed companies now seeking a trillion dollar taxpayer funded bailout.  It is hard to imagine how the coverage gets any better for McCain from now through the election.

Meanwhile, one of Obama’s greatest weaknesses during the primary—the notion that he was a usurper with untested loyalties going up against a party stalwart like Hillary Clinton—may prove to be a great strength with independent voters trying to sort out who they can best trust to handle this crisis while protecting the interests of average Americans.  Perhaps I underestimate the power of images, but I just don’t think that ads showing that both Obama and Raines are black, and that they may have met each other once or twice, are enough to convince voters to pin the blame on the donkey.

And so it goes. Washington state Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) has re-taken the lead from Dino Rossi (“G.O.P. Party”), 50% to 48%, in the latest poll by SurveyUSA. The poll of 682 likely voters was taken from 21-Sep to 22-Sep and has a margin of error of 3.8%.

So, let’s recap the September poling. A week ago, a Strategic Vision poll gave Rossi a 48% to 46% lead. Before that, a Rasmussen poll had Rossi up by a remarkable 52% to 46%. Then in early September we had an Elway poll that gave Gregoire a 49.1% to 42.4% lead and a SurveyUSA poll that had Rossi up 48% to 47%. So what is going on?

Because I’ve been systematically collecting and analyzing state head-to-head polls for every gubernatorial, senatorial and presidential race with an OCD-like fervor this election season, I’ve noticed a very strong pattern. In numerous states, for all three race types, I see examples of a Republican bump in the polls during the first half of September, only to see it fall again in the second half of September.

Call it a “Palin surge,” if you will. I call this transient phenomenon: “The Republican Awakening.” And it has largely diffused over the last week in races all over the country.

We see it here in the Washington state gubernatorial race. That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it—at least until a more compelling hypothesis that better explains the data pops up. Back to the objective analysis.

Gregoire’s lead is, clearly, within the margin of error. We can empirically determine the probability that either Rossi or Gregoire would win an election held now using a Monte Carlo analysis.

A million simulated elections of 682 voters gives Gregoire 636,814 wins, and Rossi 353,324 wins. If an election had been held today, we would expect Gregoire to win with a 64.3% probability and Rossi to win with a 35.7% probability.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes resulting from the simulation.

The same SurveyUSA poll finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain 54% to 43%. The +11% lead is even wider than a week-older ARG poll that had Obama up 50% to 44%. And compare that to the two mid-month polls: a Strategic Vision poll and a Rasmussen poll that each gave Obama a smallish single-digit lead (+5% and +2% respectively).

See how the “Republican Awakening” thing has melted away?