Archives for November 2006

Tradesports is a UK-based online futures trading market (well… gambling site, really) where you can trade options on just about anything and everything from stocks to sporting events to political races. And look what race hit the most active list today:

Hmm. Ohio’s corrupt Secretary of State Ken Blackwell is currently down 20 points in the polls in his race for the governor’s mansion.

I don’t want to sound paranoid or anything, but you gotta wonder why anybody would want to bet anything on Blackwell, even at 20 to 1 odds… unless, of course, you thought you knew something. Kinda like those savvy investors who shorted American Airlines on September 9, 2001.

I’m just sayin’.

Who’s afraid of Darcy Burner? The Republicans, that’s who.

Yesterday the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) dumped another $750,000 into Washington’s 8th Congressional District, almost all of it on TV ads attacking Burner. That brings the NRCC’s grand total to $2,346,233.72.

I sure hope the DCCC is prepared to respond in kind.

UPDATE:
A little birdy tells me that the DCCC has booked $700,000 in airtime over the final week of the campaign. Tit for tat.

There’s been some gloating from the other side recently about the latest SurveyUSA poll that shows incumbent Dave Reichert leading challenger Darcy Burner by a 51% to 45% margin. Yet these results are at odds with the Majority Watch poll conducted around the same time that shows Burner leading Reichert 49% to 47%.

Of course, both polls are within the margin of error so technically, it’s possible both could be right. But I’m leaning towards the Majority Watch figures, and not just because I want to believe them.

The key number that leaps out at me from the SurveyUSA crosstabs is the stunning fact that Burner holds a comfortable 8 point lead with the one quarter of respondents who have already voted. And this number is not an anomaly. Reliable sources now tell me that both candidates’ internal polls show Burner leading with early voters, though I have no idea by how much.

As one longtime observer of Eastside elections recently explained: “Show me a Democrat leading in early absentees, and I’ll show you a winner.” And he’s not the only one to view early ballots as a meaningful statistic. Despite a plethora of polls showing Republican John Kyl with a steady lead over Democrat Jim Pederson, the DSCC just bought gobs of airtime in Arizona after internal polling showed Pederson leading Kyl by 4% with early voters in that Senate race.

That said, there are other numbers which I find suspect. SurveyUSA shows Reichert leading with both women and independents, results at odds with both the Majority Watch survey, and… well… my intuition. I am particularly struck by Reichert’s purported 10 point lead with independents, a result that defies national trends showing independents breaking towards Democratic candidates by wide margins. Usually, independents tend to split fairly evenly between the two parties, but as Stuart Rothenberg points out today, this isn’t your usual election.

“There just aren’t any independents this year,” joked one Republican strategist I talked with recently. “There are Republicans, Democrats and soft Democrats.”

I dunno. Perhaps 8th CD independents really are different from their national counterparts. Perhaps Reichert’s reputation as “the Sheriff” — deserved or not — really does make him immune to the national Democratic wave. But… I don’t think so.

If it wasn’t already obvious, this is why our good friend Stefan and many of his fellow Republicans so bitterly oppose King County’s proposed move to all vote-by-mail balloting:

Republican candidate Mike McGavick thinks his chances of unseating Cantwell are enhanced by the fact that Democratic-leaning King, the state’s most populous county, hasn’t yet switched to all-mail ballots. The Cantwell camp agrees that McGavick has a point but says it won’t help him nearly enough.

Voter turnout is generally higher in the 34 counties that now vote solely by mail than in the five counties — King, Pierce, Island, Kittitas and Klickitat — that still use polling places as well as mail ballots.

Secretary of State Sam Reed predicts a statewide voter turnout of 67 percent, a record for an even-year, non-presidential election. But for King County, election officials forecast a turnout of only 59.5 percent, with two-thirds of those voting by mail. Reed expects 88 percent of the votes statewide to be absentees.

“Most of those counties (that vote by mail) are Republican-leaning areas,” Dan Brady, McGavick’s campaign manager, said Wednesday. “To us, it means thousands of votes for Mike because it’s easier for people to vote when (the ballot) is sitting in front of them at home than it is to go to their polling place.”

If as many counties voted by mail in 2004 as are voting by mail this year, “Dino Rossi would probably be governor,” Brady said.

It is about nothing more than naked partisan advantage. Their goal all along has been to delay the implementation of vote-by-mail in King County until at least after the 2008 election, so as to give an advantage to Dino Rossi.

The Washington State Republican Party, having been seized by corporatist and right-wing fundamentalist factions, simply cannot win statewide elections on the issues. That’s why their candidates run these cynical, wishy-washy, issueless, faux-moderate campaigns. And that is why they focus so intently on voter suppression and intimidation.

I mean, I don’t blame them for wanting to suppress voter turnout in their opponent’s strongholds. I blame them for actually acting on their want.

Notice something interesting about the race between Democrat Peter Goldmark and Republican Cathy McMorris in Washington’s 5th Congressional District? Go ahead, look closely. Figure it out?

Goldmark is doing 3 points better in the rural parts of the district than he is in urban Spokane. Sure hope the Dems are pulling out all the stops in their GOTV efforts in traditionally Democratic urban areas. If Goldmark can win Spokane, he can win the district.

Hell, Israel started a war over a kidnapped soldier, but the minute we feel pressure we just pull up our checkpoints and abandon one of our soldiers in the hands of the Shiite militia. Republicans talk about how we need to win the war in Iraq, but the truth is, we’ve already lost it. It’s time to bring the troops home.

FYI, that’s House Majority Leader John Boehner defending the Rumsfeld and blaming the deteriorating situation in Iraq on the generals on the ground.

How disastrously ill-conceived is I-933, the “pay or waive” initiative that seeks to fatten developers by gutting Washington’s land use regulations? Well for example, it could end up costing Spokane County its largest employer:

A stream of military and aviation officials lined up last week to urge Spokane County to adopt regulations that would prevent additional residential development around Fairchild Air Force Base and Spokane International Airport.

Residential development can encroach upon airfields, both in noise complaints from homeowners and with safety issues, when people are living near the area where plane crashes are most likely to occur. Proponents of Fairchild cite “encroachment” as the No. 1 reason why air force bases nationwide get shut down during periodic federal evaluations.

But if I-933 passes, property owners surrounding Fairchild could file claims demanding the county either waive any regulations passed since 1996, or pay property owners for their lost value. This shows up I-933 for what it really is: legalized extortion on a massive scale. Spokane County taxpayers would have to choose between forking over hundreds of millions of dollars, or risk losing 5,500 jobs and the $1.2 billion Fairchild annually pumps into the local economy.

According to Ed Neunherz, a retired air force officer and ex-chairman of the Spokane Regional Chamber Commerce’s armed services committee: “If encroachment is allowed to continue around Fairchild Air Force Base, the base will be closed and our region’s largest employer will go away.”

That’s the conclusion of military and civilian officials nationwide — residential encroachment on military bases leads to almost certain closure. And yet Rep. Cathy McMorris, who the Spokesman-Review congratulated for adding “a strong and helpful voice in protecting Fairchild through the last round of base closures,” has officially endorsed I-933.

Once again McMorris has embraced inflammatory right-wing rhetoric over sound government policy, and you’d think the Seattle Times and the S-R, which both oppose I-933, might hold her accountable. Eh… apparently not.

UPDATE:
I’ve just been forwarded a piece from todays Whidbey New Times on this exact topic:

Since Whidbey Island Naval Air Station was placed on a base closure list in 1991, Oak Harbor and Island County officials have enacted a range of planning measures to protect the base and its long-term viability.

But such past and future planning efforts could be undermined by Initiative 933, the sweeping property rights initiative that’s on the ballot next week.

“It would mean turning back the planning clock, and in my mind, we’ve done some really good planning,” Oak Harbor Mayor Patty Cohen said.

It’s an interesting article that gives a real-world example of the type of land-use restrictions we’re talking about, and how they potentially impact both the property owner and the community at large.

From yesterday’s King County Journal:

Reichert rode with Bush in his motorcade when the president came to the Eastside in June to raise money for Reichert and the state Republican Party.

First, the procession roared along Interstate 5 and State Route 520 to get to the Medina mansion where the fundraiser was scheduled.

Stopped on an entrance to the freeway from I-90, students in several Issaquah School District buses crammed their faces against the windows and waved to the president’s motorcade. Bush waved back.

Bush was having a great time, Reichert told a group of veterans in Orting recently. At least until he came even with one of the bus drivers.

The president turned to Reichert and said the bus driver had flipped him off.

Later, Reichert called the school district. After an investigation, the 43-year-old bus driver was fired in early September.

You can argue all you want about the appropriateness of a school bus driver making an obscene gesture, and what kind of reprimand that might deserve, but the crystalizing point of this story is that a bus driver flipped off the President and in response Rep. Dave Reichert went out of his way to have her fired. In fact he’s so proud if it, he’s made the story part of his stump speech.

Flip off the President, lose your livelihood. That’s justice in Dave Reichert’s America, and shows you what a mean, sanctimonious, vengeful S.O.B. he can really be.

A vote for Reichert is a vote for a man who thinks you should lose your job if you disrespect President Bush.

UPDATE:
Hat tip to Aaron in the comment thread:

If a canvasser comes to your door asking you to vote for Stephen Johnson for state Supreme Court, be careful he isn’t carrying a sawed-off shotgun or trying to sell you meth. For at the same time the Building Industry Association of Washington (BIAW) has spent millions of dollars cynically attempting to characterize Johnson’s opponent, Justice Susan Owens as soft on crime… they’ve been staffing their Walking for Washington campaign with violent felons. You know, like state Sen. Pam Roach’s wayward son Stephen.

Stephen Roach was convicted on drug and weapons charges after he sold an undercover informant the powerful narcotic OxyContin. A September 2004 raid (on his mother Pam’s house) found “cash, OxyContin, scales, ‘marijuana packaged for sale,’ a .45-caliber handgun and a pair of shotguns — one of which was loaded and concealed behind the headboard of his bed.”

Stephen Roach was sentenced to 20 months in prison, but was erroneously released more than 100 days early after Corrections administrators, ignoring testimony from two officers, failed to take into account a prior assault that would have classified him at a higher risk of reoffending. Officials claim the decision had nothing to do with his mother’s political clout, although they also failed to properly inspect her home for weapons after an angry phone call from the often angry senator.

On May 1 of this year, Stephen Roach walked out of prison a free man, and almost immediately started walking the streets on behalf of BIAW-backed judicial candidates Stephen Johnson and John Groen. His first paycheck from Walking for Washington is dated May 16.

Yeah, that’s right… the convicted, drug-dealing son of a sitting, Republican state senator is “erroneously” released from prison more than 100 days early, and the BIAW immediately hires him to walk through residential neighborhoods and knock on peoples doors on behalf of a retiring Republican state senator and supreme court candidate.

Tough on crime? Pam Roach, Stephen Johnson and the BIAW may talk the talk, but when it comes to Walking for Washington they certainly don’t walk the walk.