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There’s been a lot of speculation that if when Dino Rossi’s election contest lawsuit fails, he will become an immediate threat to Senator Maria Cantwell’s 2006 re-election bid. But I’ve never been so sure.

As I wrote a couple weeks ago, other prominent Republicans may have designs on the nomination, including the politically-challenged George Nethercutt and the factually-challenged Chris Vance. I also suggested that Rossi might think twice before moving his young family to the other Washington.

But writing for the Rothenberg Political Report, (“Don’t Call Rossi ‘Senator’ Just Yet“), Political Editor Nathan Gonzales questions whether Rossi would even be his party’s best candidate:

It’s important to remember that Rossi’s candidacy for governor was fueled by one essential ingredient: Change. Democrats have held the top post in the Evergreen State for 20 years and voters looked anxious to mix things up.
….
But against Cantwell, Rossi’s change message is rendered meaningless and could even work against him. His party controls the White House, the U.S. Senate, and the U.S. House. Any change message that might develop in the next two years will surely benefit Democrats nationwide, not Republicans. And Washington remains a blue state, going 53%-46% for John Kerry over George W. Bush last November.

Rossi’s momentum is not necessarily transferable to a Senate race.

And that’s even assuming Rossi still has momentum coming out of an election contest where the legal evidence fails to live up to the hyperbole of his BIAW-backed PR campaign.

Gonzales concludes that Rossi’s best shot at high office may be to hold tight and run for governor again in 2008. Unfortunately for Rossi, a lot can happen in four years… for example, a successful Gregoire administration.

I was going to add a more narrative description of the Inaugural Ball, but there’s no need to duplicate David’s detailed comments in the previous thread. It was a lovely evening, and a good time seemed to be had by all.

The only thing I’ll add is how impressed I was with the renovation of the Capitol building. Perhaps our representatives’ level of political discourse will be elevated by their surroundings.

But the greatest impression I came away with last night is that Christine Gregoire is indeed, our governor. Not governor “elect”. Not a temporary governor, or an illegitimate governor, or weak or lame-duck or any of the more pejorative adjectives spat about on the right-wing blogs… but governor.

As one longtime political correspondent observed, Republican legislators can stand up in public and dutifully repeat the party’s talking points about a “stolen election”… but pretty soon they’ll be knocking on Gregoire’s door, asking the Governor to sign their bills.

And there ain’t nothing illegitimate about that.

I just got back from the Inaugural Ball and I really want to go to bed, but I know my audience expects a little inside dish, so here’s a taste of the type of probing insight and analysis you only get from HorsesAss.org:

Rep. Hans Dunshee showed up wearing a kilt, and of course only this intrepid reporter had the nerve to ask him the question inquiring minds want to know. The answer: boxer shorts. (So if you want to accuse a Democrat of cheating, that’s the best example I’ve found thus far.)

Other than that, the only scandal to report was the lack of a quality microbrew at an otherwise well catered affair.

In general, the spirit was boisterous and upbeat. Christine Gregoire certainly looked like the governor when she was trapped in the rotunda by a throng of well wishers for well over an hour. And while righties here kept snidely saying the event was undersold, it certainly seemed packed to me. I couldn’t imagine squeezing in a couple hundred more people.

Believe it or not, there was quite a bit of political talk going on, most of which I’ll cautiously keep to myself for the moment. But I can tell you, I didn’t find a single Dem who appeared genuinely concerned about Rossi’s lawsuit.

More in the morning….

Well, my fairy godmother just called and offered me a free ticket and a free ride to the inaugural ball, so not being one to turn down a free meal, I’ll be heading off to Olympia this evening.

If anybody wants to meet up, I’ll be the guy in the tux.

Okay… here’s what I look like, according to The Seattle P-I. (I’m the one on the right.)

About the only thing more distasteful than reading the Wall Street Journal editorial page, is quoting it to support my own arguments:

Still, we have our doubts about the wisdom of a court challenge and a revote, especially if no fraud can be proven.

Consider, first, the problem of moral hazard. There are dozens of extremely close elections in the U.S. at every level of government, elections in which–like this one–the “real” outcome can never be known. What should determine which of these merits a revote? The judgment of a court? An opinion poll? Either of these is a recipe not for more perfect democracy, but for the destruction of democracy.

Gargle-gargle… spit.

(You can read the editorial here, but swallowing it whole requires registration and some Listerine.)

While much of the rest of the piece is the usual vile sophistry, the point above is why I am confident that the Washington Supreme Court will not reach beyond statute and toss the gubernatorial election without the strong appearance that errors or illegal votes actually changed the outcome. As I’ve repeatedly argued, this election is extraordinary only in its extraordinary closeness. There has been no evidence to suggest that this election is any less perfect than any other; thus to set it aside simply because it is close, calls into question all close elections.

Even the highly partisan WSJ understands the dangerous precedent such a decision would create. It would force all too many elections into the courts, where they will be decided on some arbitrary judicial notion of when the margin of error is too high, or public opinion too rancorous (manufactured or not.)

Some in the “revote” camp argue that seating a governor in the face of such uncertainty offends the public’s sense of fairness… but it clearly does not offend reason, or the law. Whatever the safeguards, no election with 3 million ballots can be 100% flawless. Some ineligible voters will always be counted, while legitimate voters are wrongly disenfranchised — there will always be errors in registration, counting, scanning and reconciliation. And yet if this race had ended in a tie, the winner would have been determined by lot.

Is that fair? Not really. But is it practical? Sure.

The statute codifies the pragmatic notion that in close elections, uncertainty is unavoidable. If the Legislature was unwilling to accept this simple reality, it would have modeled the contest statute along the lines of North Carolina’s, or it would have required a margin of victory substantially larger than… one.

And it never, ever would have accepted a tie.

For in fact, that’s what we have here: a statistical tie with the winner determined according to the rules in place at the start of the election. It may be difficult for the public — and painful for Dino Rossi — to accept this uncertainty. But sometimes uncertainty is the best we can do.

Anybody who thinks I’m uncritical of the Democratic Party, hasn’t heard me ranting on the phone or in email about the pathetic response they have mounted to the Rossi/BIAW/GOP all out PR assault. We’ve been getting our asses kicked for over two months now, and quite frankly, I’m getting rather tired of removing steel-tipped neo-con boots from between my butt cheeks.

Christine Gregoire disbanded her campaign staff the minute Sam Reed certified the election, but Dino Rossi’s campaign continues to go strong. Aided dominated by the considerable resources of the BIAW, Rossi is now the nominal leader of a calculated and dishonest campaign to discredit the entire Democratic party. As George Howland writes in The Seattle Weekly, the Democrats failure to effectively defend Gregoire’s legitimacy could make her win a Pyrrhic victory:

The Republicans recognize they have an opportunity, whether or not they win in court. That’s why their revote campaign is so smart. By whipping up a frenzy, the GOP has left most of Washington feeling like 2004 was a botched election.

I do my best to refute the vicious lies and irresponsible rumor-mongering coming from conservative talk radio and the right-wing blogs, but some days I feel like I’m just pissing into the wind. It’s time for the state Democratic Party to fight fire with fire and money with money… they need to wake up and realize that they are in the middle of a political campaign — rallies, paid media, yard signs and all — however weak Rossi’s legal case might be.

Personally, I could give a shit about public opinion when public opinion is wrong, but I’m not running for office! The Republicans are boldly, loudly and unashamedly lying to voters… because it works. At the rally in Olympia yesterday, GOPolitburo Chair Chris Vance said:

“Hundreds of felons voted, hundreds of dead people voted and hundreds of people voted twice.”

These are LIES, damn it, and Vance knows it! But apparently the public does not, else he wouldn’t keep repeating them.

I am a proud Democrat, and I am sick and tired of being called a cheater and a thief by BIAW thugs and their political puppets in the GOP. I have stood up for the Democratic Party again and again, and it’s time for the Party to stand up for me and the hundreds of thousands of other proud Democrats whose support has never wavered.

Dino Rossi will soon get his day in court. And it’s time us Democrats get our day in the court of public opinion.

If Tim Eyman calls a press conference, and no reporters show up, did he make a sound? Apparently not, for the most striking thing about the media coverage of Tim’s performance audits initiative was the almost total lack thereof.

Yesterday was the opening day of the initiative filing season, an event Tim has traditionally turned into an annual photo op… but this year, few reporters took advantage of the opportunity. Indeed, scanning the papers, Tim’s “I-900” received nary a headline and barely a mention in the wrap-ups of the day’s political events.

Of course, with the filing coinciding with the first day of the legislative session, and the GOP’s failed efforts to block certification of Christine Gregoire’s election, part of Tim’s failure to grab headlines was due to timing. But it is also due to the fact that Tim Eyman’s time may have passed.

In fact, the most press coverage an Eyman initiative got today was actually his four-year-old I-747. A group of environmentalists, social organizations and at least one county have filed suit to have the measure tossed out. [Lawsuit says I-747 violates state constitution]

I-747 is a particularly nefarious initiative because its impact is so gradual, masking from the public the enormous cuts projected out onto future budgets. I-747 limits property tax revenue growth to 1% a year… well below inflation, let alone growth in population or personal income. As revenues grow slower than demand for public services, these services are gradually cut. Without revision or repeal, many local taxing districts — particularly in rural communities in eastern Washington — face insolvency over the next few years.

Eyman claims the initiative was carefully drafted to avoid constitutional problems, but as usual, I tend to trust experts over lying blowhards:

Attorney Hugh Spitzer, whose firm has challenged many of Eyman’s initiatives, said it was clear after the initiative passed that there were constitutional issues that could be raised, but there wasn’t a group of cities and counties that wanted to spend the time and effort to litigate it.

If Hugh Spitzer says there are valid constitutional issues, then there are valid constitutional issues. Whereas if Tim Eyman says the sky is blue, I’d have my doubts.

Anyway, it’s nice to see Timmy on the defensive, and it’s unlikely we’ll see him recover any time soon. His newest initiative is a dog, and even if it wasn’t about to be obviated by a more reasonable legislative proposal, he still lacks the grassroots and financial resources to qualify it for the ballot. And now I-747, his most lasting contribution to our state of perpetual budget crisis, is under legal attack.

Tim has failed to pass an initiative two years running, and as his ethical scandals continue to outnumber his electoral victories, he will continue his inevitable slide towards political irrelevance.

Who knows, maybe next year, when the media fails to show up for yet another filing day press conference… perhaps I won’t even bother to blog on it?

As expected, the Legislature just certified Christine Gregoire’s election as our new governor.

Anybody looking for excitement in Olympia today better hope for some kind of street fight between Gregoire and Rossi supporters… because you’re not going to get any drama from the Legislature. Sure, Republicans might follow through on their childish threat to walk out of the joint session, but any chance they had of blocking certification of Christine Gregoire’s election vanished when the slim Democratic majority in the Senate held firm during a procedural vote yesterday.

With that out of the way, the final certification of the election results will fall to a joint session of the Legislature, where a more solid advantage in the House gives Democrats a comfortable majority. Gregoire will be certified on Tuesday, and sworn in on Wednesday… regardless of how much money the BIAW spends on paid media.

Good thing too, because we choose our governor based on who wins the election the first Tuesday in November, not on who wins the PR battle afterwards. This is not a parliamentary system where governments are toppled on losing a vote of confidence — if Rossi wants a new election, he’s welcome to it… in 2008.

So it’s onto the courts — the proper forum for contesting an election — where I expect Rossi’s BIAW attorneys will be less persuasive then his BIAW financed media campaign. For while the court of public opinion might be moved by unsupported rumor and innuendo, a court of law is inconveniently rigid about obscure technicalities like “facts” and “evidence.”

Rossi has spent weeks shamelessly accusing Gregoire, the Democrats and King County Elections officials, of “fraud,” “corruption” and “conspiracy,” but his attorneys — constrained by reality — have now translated these charges into “neglect,” “errors” and “omissions.” This sudden shift in word choice cannot simply be dismissed as a legal expediency… it is an admission that they never had the evidence to back up these baseless charges in the first place.

For this, Dino Rossi owes the public an explanation. And he owes Christine Gregoire an apology.

Show your support for following the rule of law! Rally at the Capitol, Tuesday, Jan 11th, 10:30 AM, State Capitol, Olympia WA, Story Pole on North Side of Capitol Campus.

Or, show your support for Christine Gregoire, by telling the Legislature to stand up to the BIAW media campaign, certify the election, and get on with the business of government! Call the Legislative Hotline, 1-800-562-6000, or email your legislators!

First day of the new legislative session… first day to file initiatives to the people… it’s back to the real work of governing. While Dino Rossi, the BIAW, and the folks at (un)Sound Politics continue to pursue their real agenda — undermining the public’s faith in all government — I hope you’ll excuse me if I take a break from refuting their lies to address some real issues.

For example, as I write this, initiative profiteer Tim Eyman is holding what I expect to be a sparsely attended news conference, to introduce his newest ill-conceived initiative: mandatory performance audits of every state and local government agency, account and program.

Personally, I think performance audits can be a useful tool, along with Gov. Locke’s Priorities of Government program, for evaluating the efficiency of existing state programs, and reprioritizing government spending. But as usual, Timmy’s proposal is more about punishing government than making it efficient, and this initiative is really, stupidly over-the-top.

It’s one thing to empower the State Auditor to conduct performance audits. It’s another thing to require him to audit every single agency, account and program in the state. I mean, let’s be serious… the cost of conducting a performance audit on the average local cemetery district would likely far exceed the district’s entire budget.

How expense is this initiative. Well, Eyman dedicates a portion of the state sales tax equal to about $10 million a year. I believe in accounting terms, this is technically referred to as “a lie.” According to the State Auditor’s Office, the real cost would likely be in excess of $90 million per biennium. Not only that, it would require increasing staff levels by at least four-fold, and take 10 to 12 years to implement. That’s right… Eyman is proposing over a half billion dollars of new spending!

Way to cut government, Tim!

Don’t believe me? Check out the document provided by the State Auditor’s Office in response to questions by public watchdog group Permanent Defense. The Auditor is particularly critical of including local government agencies in the initiative, calling it “ill-advised.”

So where do I stand on this issue. As usual, I tend to defer to well-regarded professionals when it comes to issues on which I have only limited expertise… so I support giving State Auditor Brian Sonntag the kind of legislation he wants:

We believe the intent behind the initiative is good, however, we also firmly believe that there is a better way. We were nearly successful in getting a measure passed during the 2004 session of the Legislature… In our view, the optimum means of accomplishing an independent, comprehensive performance audit function is to have the Governor and Legislature embrace it and enact authorizing legislation and funding to support it.

Sonntag nearly got the legislation he asked for last year… it had the votes to pass the Democrat-controlled House, but was blocked in the Republican Senate. Now that the Democrats control both houses of the Legislature, and the Governor’s Mansion, it seems likely that responsible performance audits legislation will be signed into law, preempting Eyman’s initiative, regardless of his rhetorical gamesmanship.

But even if the Legislature grinds to halt in the partisan meltdown currently being promised by Republicans, and nothing is passed, this initiative still doesn’t have a snowball’s chance. Over the past few years Eyman has demonstrated that he lacks the grassroots support to finance both an initiative campaign and his standard of living. If he couldn’t rile up money-in-my-pocket fervor with last year’s “25% tax cut” initiative, performance audits is guaranteed to be a fundraising dud. And without directly benefiting a greedy special-interest like the gambling industry, he has no sugar-daddy to bankroll his efforts.

Makes you wonder, what with all the money he’s wasted proposing and running failed initiatives… isn’t it time his contributors conduct a performance audit on Tim Eyman?

An Ellensburg, WA man has filed a lawsuit contesting the results of the Seattle Seahawks’ 27-20 loss to the St. Louis Rams in the first round of the NFC playoffs. The suit alleges malfeasance, misconduct or errors by referees resulted in nine penalties on the Seahawks, “several of which kept Ram drives alive when they would have faced fourth down situations.”

Apparently inspired by the unsportsmanlike manner in which failed GOP gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi has blamed his own loss on the officials, longtime Seahawks fan and political blog connoisseur John Slyfield claims that failure to replay the game “could harm the integrity of the game, by not allowing mistakes to be corrected.” Impartial observers — like Seahawk Cornerback Ken Lucas — apparently agree:

“The refs made some very questionable calls today,” Lucas said. “There was one call I thought I did, and that was the hands to the face. The other two I thought were questionable. But they made the calls, and that’s been the story for us this year, calls made against us.”

The lawsuit comes in the wake of a rising tide of public opinion in favor of a new game, fueled by inflammatory rhetoric coming from local sports radio. Radio hosts and callers are particularly irate about a “phantom” fourth-quarter illegal contact call on cornerback Marcus Trufant, that set up the Rams with a first down at the Seattle 30, on a drive that eventually led to a tying touchdown.

Seahawk boosters have reportedly reserved the domain “replaywa.com”, but rumors of a planned “victory parade” through downtown Seattle could not be confirmed.

According to an article by Howard Kurtz in the Washington Post (“U.S. paid journalist to tout law“), the Education Department secretly paid conservative commentator Armstrong Williams $241,000 to help promote President Bush’s No Child Left Behind law.

In taking the money, funneled through a public-relations firm, Williams produced and aired a commercial on his syndicated television and radio shows featuring Education Secretary Rod Paige, touted Bush’s education policy and urged other programs to interview Paige. He didn’t disclose the contract when talking about the law during cable-television appearances or writing about it in his newspaper column.

Democrats immediately accused the administration of trying to bribe journalists. Well duh-uh! It’s standard practice for the US to bribe journalists around the world… what makes anybody think they’re not doing it at home?

This is blatant propaganda that would make Goebbels proud — and at taxpayer expense, no less. When critics like me reluctantly use the word “fascism” to describe the tactics of the Republican leadership and their corporate patrons, this is exactly the kind of undemocratic crap we’re talking about.

Alex Jones, director of Harvard’s Shorenstein media center, said he is “disgusted” by what he called “the worst kind of fakery and flackery” on Williams’ part. “It’s propaganda masquerading as news, paid by government, truly a recipe from hell,” he said. “It would make any thinking person hearing any pundit speak want to say, ‘OK, how much did they pay you to say that?’ ” The contract also shows that “the Bush administration neither understands nor respects the idea of an independent media,” Jones said.

Hmm… makes you wonder how much Dori Monson got paid for his right-wing conversion, huh?

Much has been made by the Rossi campaign over the alleged “felon vote”, with the slanderous implication that it would heavily favor Christine Gregoire. Well, I can think of at least one convicted felon who most likely voted for Dino Rossi: his longtime mentor, Melvin Heide.

As was widely reported in The Seattle Times, The Stranger and other publications, Rossi’s rags to riches story is a little ragged around the edges. Rossi got his start at a real estate company owned and operated by Heide, that engaged in fraudulent business practices, bilking millions out of clients. As scandals and bankruptcies unfolded, Rossi’s colleagues fled to more reputable firms, but he stuck with Heide, following him to two other companies.

On August 18, 1989, a federal grand jury indicted Heide on 18 counts of bank fraud, mail fraud, and making false statements. In exchange for other charges being dropped, Heide eventually pleaded guilty to bilking a Tacoma couple out of $400,000 — and on July 20, 1990, he was sentenced to three years in prison and ordered to pay $1.7 million in restitution.

However, Rossi’s eight-year business relationship with Heide only ended in 1992… in the middle of his first political campaign. Even then, Rossi remained close to the Heide family, indeed, Rossi’s first campaign treasurer was none other than Heide’s son, Ralph. (A tip of the hat to Pleasing to Remember for that tidbit.)

Perhaps this explains why several Republican readers took such offense by the technically accurate description of Rossi in my previous post? In light of the shady companies he worked for, the only thing worse than describing Rossi as an “unemployed real estate agent” would be to describe him as an “employed” one.

Gregoire spent most of her professional career putting felons behind bars, while Rossi spent much of his working for one. So who do you think is more deserving of the “felon vote”?

“Glass houses,” and all that.

One of the more curious rhetorical choices coming out of today’s press conference from Dino Rossi’s Charlotte Bellevue headquarters, was former-Senator Slade Gorton’s odd attempt to point to North Carolina as a role model for setting aside an election whenever the margin of error exceeds the margin of victory.

In a hotly contested Agricultural Commissioner race that saw the Democratic incumbent defeated by only 2,287 votes out of 3.3 million cast, the North Carolina courts ordered a new election after it was revealed that Carteret County had accidentally erased 4,438 votes from electronic voting machines. (Oops.) The decision came despite that fact that Carteret split 60-40 for the Republican, suggesting that these missing votes would have only added to the margin of the winner. Gorton uses the North Carolina example to support his argument that if the GOP can prove there are more illegal or improperly canvassed ballots than Christine Gregoire’s 129 vote margin, her election should be tossed out too.

Problem with that argument is… we don’t live in North Carolina.

At the risk of boring you with more wonkish legal stuff, take a look at the pertinent section of the North Carolina election statute: