How many of you all have a Swiss bank account?
— Vice President Joe Biden countering Mitt Romney’s claim that President Barack Obama is “out of touch.”
by Darryl — ,
How many of you all have a Swiss bank account?
— Vice President Joe Biden countering Mitt Romney’s claim that President Barack Obama is “out of touch.”
by Darryl — ,
This week’s Stranger has an awesome story by Dominic Holden on the Seattle Subway proposal:
A group of transit nerds, working with allies in local government, are developing a way to do it and do it fast. With lines above and below grade (more than half of the New York City subway is aboveground), the Seattle Subway would transport riders from downtown to Ballard in nine minutes, according to estimates for modern subway technology. Travel from downtown to West Seattle would take 10 minutes—no matter the traffic. Trains could arrive every five minutes.
Here’s how it would work: Seattle voters would take advantage of the City Transportation Authority, created by the state legislature in 2002, which was intended to fund the monorail. That authority still allows voters to establish a motor vehicle excise tax of up to 2.5 percent for “a transportation system that utilizes train cars running on a guideway.” An initial vote as soon as this November or next year could pay for relatively inexpensive analysis and design work for the first line—probably to Ballard and West Seattle. A subsequent vote would pay for constructing the first line. Repeat as necessary until that map you see is complete.
“It’s a great concept,” says former mayor Greg Nickels, who was integral to building the light-rail lines we have. He agrees the current construction schedule for light rail is “frustratingly slow.”
Read the whole thing…it’s good, thought-provoking stuff.
So…Dominic Holden is now pro-tunnel?!?
by Darryl — ,
Lots to talk about. Let’s see…the Washington legislature has a stalemate with a huge deadline tonight, Newt is bouncing checks, Santorum has suspended.
Let’s talk about it. Please join us tonight for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.
Seattle DL meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. We begin at 8:00pm, but some folks show up even earlier to enjoy a peaceful dinner.
SPECIAL EVENT: This Thursday (April 12th) the Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI) will hold their 2012 Spring Fundraising Gala Mercer Island Community Center, 8236 SE 24th Street.
The event will benefit NPI and will feature food by Frankie’s Pizza (my favorite pizzeria in the PNW), music, memorable speakers, and great company. The speakers include Senator Maria Cantwell, Congressman Adam Smith, the Honorable Ron Sims, and NPI’s Andrew Villeneuve.
The reception begins at 6:30 PM, main program to begin at 7:15 PM. Tickets are available here or at the door. (The individual rate is $60, household rate is $90. Those living lightly can get in the door for $20, and students who want to volunteer with event setup and takedown are welcome to come for free.)
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? You’re in luck…there are DLs meeting all over Washington state. Tonight there are also meetings of the Tri-Cities, Bellingham, and Vancouver, WA chapters. And on Thursday, Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets. Next Monday there are meetings of the Woodinville, Olympia, Yakima, and Shelton chapters.
With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.
by Darryl — ,
Late last week, media sources, both local and national, were abuzz with the figure $770,000 released by Secretary of State Sam Reed. That is, supposedly, the “cost” for a special election to replace Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-1). Inslee recently resigned his seat to run for Governor.
Last Friday I listened to KUOW’s Weekday Friday news round-up as they spent quite a bit of time on the topic of this special election. (Aside: I was a little surprised that the four esteemed journalists in the studio didn’t understand that the Governor cannot appoint a replacement for a Representative…it’s in the Constitution.)
I was puzzled by the figure. I mean, the special election will take place on the same days as the primary and general election. Does it really cost $770,000 to add one race to the ballet for about 11% of the state’s voters? Is that the cost of adding a couple of pages to the voter’s guide for residents of the old 1st CD?
Now…if Inslee had resigned just days earlier (before March 6th), it would have required a stand-alone special election. I could imagine a new election costing taxpayers $770,000. But that isn’t what happened. Inslee, intentionally or not, delayed his resignation and a stand-alone special election was avoided.
For the answer to the puzzling cost figure we turn to TNT.
Katie Blinn, the co-director of elections with the Secretary of state, said there isn’t really an increase in election costs only a change in how those costs are distributed. County elections offices divide the cost of elections among the government entities with matters on the ballot. But state law dictates that the state doesn’t pay anything for state and federal elections held in even-numbered years like this. It only chips in for special elections that are normally held in odd-numbered years and for any election to fill an unexpired U.S. Senate or U.S. House position.
[…]So there are not additional costs other than the postcard mailing. What Blinn’s response seems to indicate is that the costs will be shared by an additional governmental entity. As state costs go up, the costs borne by local governments will go down.
In short…the election itself costs taxpayers almost nothing extra. What we are talking about with the $770,000 is the transfer of funds between different government entities; budgetary shuffling. Somehow, the mainstream media missed that subtly. And maybe it’s because Sam Reed wasn’t particularly clear about what the $770,000 is.
The Democrats, of course, point out that Sam Reed is the McKenna campaign’s Thurston County co-chair, and that “[t]he conflict of interest is clear.”
The SOS office is also requesting $225,000 to do voter education—essentially to mail out postcards to educate voters about the confusing special election in the old 1st and the regular election in the new first. I’m not sure why the voter’s pamphlet—you know, that document sent to all voters that educates them about the elections and candidates—cannot be used to educate voters about the special election. Perhaps it violates the RCW or something. I don’t know.
So boos and hisses to the majority of the MSM that hyperventilated over the $770,000 “cost” of a special election.
And boos and hisses to the SOS office for failing to clearly communicate to the media the meaning of the $770,000 figure. It’s an integrity issue, given how a high-ball estimate would look like conflict of interest. Reed should have gone out of his way to explain exactly what the figure means, and provide an actual estimate of taxpayer’s costs.
Finally, Reed should have been out front with corrections last week when the media was hyping the figure incorrectly.
by Darryl — ,
Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Jesus was a Jew; Obama is a Muslim.
Stephen does Nikki Haley.
Sam Seder: James Murdoch resigns as BSkyB Chairman.
Young Turks: Rep. Allen West…Gay Marriage not important.
Pres. Obama speaks at Easter prayer breakfast.
Episode 9 of the Not Exactly Rick Snyder Show.
Thom: Some more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Young Turks: Crazy new FAUX News conspiracy theory.
The Republican War on Women:
Pap: The death of the GOP.
Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
White House: West Wing Week.
Sam Seder: Supreme Courts strip-‘n-probe ruling.
Jon on Sarah Palin’s “Today Show” gig.
Ann Telnaes: Real aftermath of the Gulf oil spill.
Stephen: Disheartening improved employment news.
Thom: The President strikes back.
Mark Fiore: Abraca-Tax-Cut.
Jon: Can you make Bill-O pay $4.00 for a shrimp.
Obama: The story of “Fired Up, Ready to Go:
Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Paul Ryan “misspoke” on calling Generals liars.
White House: The Google White House tour projet.
Obama speaks at the White House forum on women and the economy.
Thom: A well-oiled machine to privatize colleges that doesn’t depend on facts.
The G.O.P. Primary Reality Show:
Young Turks: The Wingnut “Obama is a bully” theory.
Sam Seder: GOP-er fights against Gay Marriage until she realizes she is gay.
Pres. Obama’s Passover message.
Ann Telnaes: Masters of their universe.
Maddow: “You have one new message from the Secretary of State”.
The White House Carpet Crisis.
Jennifer Granholm and Karen Middleton (President of Emerge America): Getting women into politics.
Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Rep. Steve King (R) on DADT in the workplace.
ALEC ATTACK:
Newsy: Olbermann talks it.
Progressives hold Republicans accountable for Medicare vote: .
Buzz 60: March Jobs report.
Sam Seder: Surprise! Repeal of DADT has caused zero problems.
Young Turks: Ayn Rand, Glenn Beck, and Teabaggers.
Bill Maher and friends on Zimmerman.
Maddow: Update on the Michigan story.
Alyona: How much of your tax dollars go to the Military.
Jon on The death of the GOP.
w.indecisionforever.com/blog/2012/04/06/the-daily-show-on-barack-obamas-email-spam’>Obama’s email spam.
Thom with even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
The right-wing media has a huge breaking scandal….
The Democratic Party’s newly appointed Jewish outreach liaison is pictured on Facebook in a series of provocative photos with her friends holding dollar bills and referring to themselves as “Jewbags” and the “Jew cash money team.”
Dani Gilbert, who has been a staffer in the office of Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D., Fla.), was recently appointed as the Democratic National Committee’s Jewish outreach liaison, according to her Twitter feed.
Ooohh….that sounds weally, weally, wascally really, really bad.
The whole thing supposedly exposes a huge riff between Pres. Obama and DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
Here is the offending picture….
There she is kissing the money!
Except, wait. That Facebook page is from January 2006. I presume Ms. Gilbert was in college (or maybe high school) and was goofing around with some friends.
Inexcusable still. It’s scandalous!
Clearly, Ms. Gilbert should be fired and forbidden from participation in politics.
And kept away from young children.
by Darryl — ,
Rachael Maddow has a pretty remarkable story here….
by Darryl — ,
Why the hell not? I mean, soon we won’t have Newt or Santorum to kick the shit out of anymore.
Newt is already out of the picture. But Lil’ Ricky Santorum keeps on Mitt like a bad case of Giardia. Cesspool ensues.
The polls close in Wisconsin, D.C. and Maryland at 5:00 PM PDT. That’s now!
5:04: It’s all tied up in all three states, with 0% reporting…
5:06: I got a call this afternoon from my favorite neice, Maria Elaine Valdez Holman. “Guess what, uncle Darryl, I voted today,” she said with some excitement. My guess is that most 18 year-olds don’t get quite so excited about voting, but Maria has become quite passionate about politics. She is really looking forward to voting Gov. Scott Walker’s ass out of office. Needless to say, she got her voting issues resolved, but not without some considerable effort, thanks to Walker.
5:32: With less than 1% reporting, we have some results for Maryland:
5:41: With 1% reporting in Maryland, CNN boldly calls it for the Mittster.
5:42: We just got a teevee turned to CNN at the Ale House (that can be hard to do during Basketball season, and there is a Women’s final on tonight). Anyway, it seems I was misunderinformed…polls in Wisconsin haven’t closed yet. I believe they close at 6:00 PM PDT.
6:00: Polls are closing in Wisconsin. Wolf Blitzer puts his “intensity” face on.
CNN projection based on exit polls:
6:02: NPR points out that turn-out may be much lower than expected in Wisconsin. That’s bad news for Scott Walker. The G.O.P. voters are simply not all that engaged.
6:06: CNN projects that Mitt Romney wins in D.C. What took them so long…I mean, Santorum didn’t even make the ballot. But I’m grateful we have that settled.
6:07: Dear CNN…When you have a text insert saying, “Santorum to speak soon” up for 45 minutes, you ought to be asking yourself…”Are we being played by the Santorum campaign?”
6:09: CNN has Ari Fleischer on the teevee. Without sound, I have no idea what he is saying. But I’m guessing he is lying–after all, his lips are moving.
6:14: Finally…after almost an hour of pushing it…Santorum is speaking. All smiles and waiving signs. This looser is on fucking Mars! Oh…wait. He’s giving the speech from Mars, PA.
6:17: CNN banner: “Breaking News: Awaiting Wisconsin Results”. That’s not fucking breaking news. We have been awaiting these results for our entire fucking life!
[Read more…]
by Darryl — ,
Please join us tonight for another evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. Tonight’s primaries are in Wisconsin, Maryland, and DC.
Seattle DL meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our regular starting time is 8:00pm, but feel free to show up before then to catch the earliest election returns.
Naturally, we’ll be doing a bit of live blogging of the results.
Can’t make it to Seattle? There is also a meeting tonight of the Tri-Cities chapter, and the Tacoma chapter meets this Thursday.
With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.
by Darryl — ,
US Supreme Court Affirms Warrantless Ass Searches
Who else…but Goldy.
Goldy goes on to explain that Washington has laws that require a warrant for incarceratory cavity probes.
The gist of the Supreme Court ruling is that jailers have the right to invasive searches without warrants because of the heightened security environment of a jail or prison.
Yet…somehow, lacking warrantless ass searches, Washington state jails and prisons manage to not spiral into utter chaos.
Maybe it’s the climate.
by Darryl — ,
A new Grove Insight poll of the gubernatorial race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-1) and Washington state AG Rob McKenna (R) shows Inslee with a +2% lead over McKenna. The poll surveyed 500 likely Washington voters (M.O.E. 4.4%) from the 26th to 28th of March.
Before doing my usual Monte Carlo analysis of the results, I want to point out that with this poll and the previous Grove Insight poll, I debated whether or not to analyze the results. One of my rules for polls is to, “ignore polls released by party organizations or candidates.” The issue is that campaigns and party organizations commission polls all the time, but we rarely get to see the polling results. When they are released, there is a strategic reason. Therefore, including such polls can lead to a biased overall interpretation, even if the polls themselves are completely honest and accurate.
Both of the Grove Insight polls are, apparently, commissioned by the SEIU. Even though SEIU isn’t part of the campaign or the Democratic party, SEIU has recently endorsed Inslee and they obviously share elements of their politics. I really don’t know if Grove Insight would have released these results if they had been bad for Inslee. It is a close call, but I opted to go with publishing an analysis.
Of the 500 respondents, there were only 360 who had a preference for either Inslee or McKenna, so the effective margin of error is actually bigger than the 4.4% given in the release. A Monte Carlo analysis that held a million simulated elections gave Inslee a win 762,761 times and McKenna a win 225,707 times.
The analysis suggests that, if the election was today, Inslee would have a 77.2% probability of beating McKenna. Note that by statistical conventions we would call this a tie because the winning percentage doesn’t exceed 95%. Here is the distribution of election outcomes resulting from the analysis:
This makes three consecutive polls that contradict the narrative that McKenna is the front-runner:
Although I want input from another poll or two, it is beginning to look like this race is flipping—gone from McKenna having a hefty lead, to a tie. If correct, it’s pretty remarkable is how fast things have turned around….
[The most recent analysis in this race can be found here.]
by Darryl — ,
Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Roy Zimmerman: Texas verse of “Vote Republican”.
Medicare, Affordable Care, and Health Care:
Jennifer Granholm: Outrage over the war on women is deafening.
Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Sen. Rand Paul shills for Big Oil.
V.P. Biden says “Thank you, Dr. Pepper” to Dr. Paper.
Stephen on Obama’s secret plot to not take away your guns.
The G.O.P. CrazyFest:
Greenman: What we knew about global warming in 1982.
Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
White House: West Wing Week:
Jon: Obama’s hot mic gaffe.
Sam Seder: It isn’t just phone hacking for Newscorp anymore.
Death Sentence for Trayvon:
Roy Zimmerman: Utah verse of “Vote Republican”.
Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Obama: Repeal subsidies for oil companies.
Liberal Viewer: FAUX News’ biased reporting on CA prisons.
Sam Seder: Dick Cheney has a heart.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
Obama | Romney |
100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
Mean of 347 electoral votes | Mean of 191 electoral votes |
There have been fourteen new state head-to-head polls taken since my previous analysis of the race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.
No big surprises in them. Obama leads Romney in the three classic swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania poll and Ohio (twice). Obama also leads in Virginia and three Wisconsin polls. On the other hand, Nebraska CD 2 has swing slightly in favor of Romney.
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
AR | Talk Business-Hendrix College | 26-Mar | 26-Mar | 759 | 3.6 | 33.0 | 56.5 | R+23.5 |
CT | Quinnipiac | 14-Mar | 19-Mar | 1622 | 2.4 | 53 | 37 | O+16 |
FL | Quinnipiac | 20-Mar | 26-Mar | 1228 | 2.8 | 49 | 42 | O+7 |
MA | PPP | 16-Mar | 18-Mar | 936 | 3.2 | 58 | 35 | O+23 |
NE | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 1028 | 3.1 | 39 | 51 | R+12 |
NE1 | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 432 | — | 41 | 49 | R+8 |
NE2 | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 277 | — | 45 | 46 | R+1 |
NE3 | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 319 | — | 31 | 57 | R+26 |
NH | ARG | 15-Mar | 18-Mar | 557 | 4.2 | 48 | 41 | O+7 |
OH | Rasmussen | 26-Mar | 26-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 48 | 40 | O+8 |
OH | Quinnipiac | 20-Mar | 26-Mar | 1246 | 2.8 | 47 | 41 | O+6 |
OR | SurveyUSA | 14-Mar | 19-Mar | 1615 | 2.5 | 49.8 | 38.8 | O+11.0 |
PA | Quinnipiac | 20-Mar | 26-Mar | 1232 | 2.8 | 45 | 42 | O+3 |
VA | PPP | 20-Mar | 20-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 51 | 42 | O+9 |
WI | Rasmussen | 27-Mar | 27-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 52 | 41 | O+11 |
WI | Marist | 26-Mar | 27-Mar | 1400 | 2.6 | 52 | 35 | O+17 |
WI | Marquette Law School | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 707 | — | 48.2 | 43.2 | O+4.9 |
The previous analysis had Obama leading Romney by an average of 339 to 199 electoral votes. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 347 to Romney’s 191 electoral votes.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
by Darryl — ,
In 2005, Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA-8) was one of only 21 Republicans to vote against House Resolution 639 that, essentially, authorized drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). HR-639 passed the house only to be killed in the Senate (thanks to a big show of leadership by Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA)).
Reichert has gotten a lot of mileage out of these types of “courageous” votes against his own party…but he shouldn’t. After all, Reichert stupidly admitted that his voting record was built on a strategy of keeping himself and Republicans in power—even on this very ANWR vote:
Sometimes the leadership comes to me and says, “Dave, we want you to vote a certain way.’ Now, they know I can do that over here, that I have to do that over here. In other districts, that’s not a problem, but here I have to be able to be very flexible in where I place my votes. Because the big picture here is, keep this seat, keep the majority, keep the country moving forward with Republican ideals…. Not the vote I place on ANWAR that you may not agree with, or the vote that I place on protecting salmon.”
With redistricting, Reichert finds himself moving from a very competitive district to a safe district. So today, when the House Republicans took a vote on the Ryan budget—you know, the one that would dismantle Medicare and replace it with a coupon system–how did Reichert vote?
He voted in favor of it (via Publicola):
Perhaps it’s because he’s in a safer Republican district now thanks to redistricting (and the only person running against him has raised just $12,000), but US Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA, 8 ), who has broken with his party on some high-profile and highly politicized votes in the past, stuck with his party today. (In the past, Reichert voted against his party to override President Bush’s veto of a children’s health care bill, voted for the employee non-discrimination act, i.e., for gay rights, voted with President Obama and the Democrats to extend emergency unemployment benefits, and, most dramatically, voted for the cap and trade bill.
Today, the liberated Congressman from the redrawn 8th (no more rich Microsoft liberals coming after him), voted for the controversial budget pushed by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) in a party-line 228-191 vote.
Last year, Reichert skipped this vote…not out of political strategy, but because his mother had just died after an 18-month bout with pancreatic cancer (and, no doubt, Medicare prevented another bankruptcy). His office suggests he would have voted for it with the caveat that:
I’ve heard from my constituents and share their concerns about reductions in Pell Grants for low-income students, oil drilling expansion in our wilderness, and how entitlement reform could affect seniors and those approaching retirement.
Today he really did vote for a extremist right-wing bill. Sure…this version is a bit less extreme than the previous version, but it is still extreme. Yes, this one lets Senior’s use their coupons to purchase their way into a Medicare-like system. (This particular modification came about with the assistance of Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR).) It’s still extreme.
The bottom line is that the bill gives tax breaks to the wealthy at the same time raising health care costs for Seniors by thousands of dollars a year. And it does lots of other bad things, like repealing key parts of “Obamacare” and cutting Pell Grants.
If this bill were to become law millions of Americans would be affected by loss of insurance, increased health care costs, uncertainty and bankruptcy.
As Publicola suggests, Riechert is free now—free from having to take strategic votes that appease his constituents against his conscience.
Reichert still represents the OLD 8th Congressional District. What his vote today did was tell many of his constituents (the soon-to-be ex-constituents from the liberal parts of the old 8th) to fuck-off. And why shouldn’t he? Yeah…as he said last year, he’s heard from them, he knows their concerns. But they no longer hold anything over him, so screw ’em.
by Darryl — ,
You’re not gonna use the pink ball. We’re not gonna let you do that. Not on camera. Friends don’t let friends use pink balls.
I’m pretty sure Rick prefers blue balls….
I no longer use Twitter or Facebook because Nazis. But until BlueSky is bought and enshittified, you can still follow me at @goldy.horsesass.org