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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 9/7/12, 11:57 pm

White House: West Wing Week.

Roy Zimmerman: Citizens United:

Thom: Are Americans better off than 30 years ago when the the Reaganomics experiment started?

The Democratic National Convention:

  • SlateTV: Clinton brings it home for Obama.
  • Young Turks: Analysis of Pres. Clinton’s speech
  • Fallon: Clinton Speaks:
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Clinton and the Crazies
  • Jon: Clinton had more stats than RNC did in entire week (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Young Turks: Analysis of Michelle Obama’s speech
  • Cory Booker’s DNC Speech
  • Stephen: Democrats’ “God gaffe.”
  • The Coultergiest tries to outdo Rush on Sandra Fluke.
  • Thom and Pap on GOP trying to make Obama fail.
  • Young Turks: Looking at Obama’s speech.
  • Sam Seder chats with Obamabot Andy Kindler on his thoughts on Barack Obama’s DNC speech!.
  • Maddow: Presidential campaign may hinge on VA candidate.
  • John Lewis Crooks and Liars).
  • Young Turks: Sen. Kerry has best line of the DNC.
  • Ann Telnaes: The ups and downs of Bill Clinton.
  • Jenn breaks down D v. R’s us v. me.
  • Deval Patrick slams Mitt Romney.
  • Maddow: Rocky Balboa secret Romney advisor?
  • Young Turks: Analysis of Biden’s speech
  • James Taylor performs at DNC (after empty chair joke):
  • Gov. Granholm’s DNC Address.
  • Young Turks: Analysis of Jenn Granholm’s

Indicision’s attack ad against FOX News.

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Rob McKenna’s supersleuths uncover a secret video of Jay Inslee bulldozing. Oh…that smarts!

Willard!

  • Mark Fiore: The Love-Me-Mitt doll
  • Sam Seder: Clint beats Mitt.
  • Romney and Rep. Steve King: Partners in extremism.

Ann Telnaes: Are Democrats the new G.O.P.?

Obama’s beer recipes revealed.

Red State Update: Jackie talks to Obama’s chair:

Pharmaceutical Ad: “Legitimate Rape”.

Palin Around With Terrorists:

  • Sarah complains (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Slate TV: Sarah Palin doesn’t want the attention. Really!

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Ann Telnaes: A conservative view of the American Worker.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, West Virginia edition.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

194 Stoopid Comments

The DNC Celebration

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/6/12, 11:34 pm

The DNC has just wrapped up their convention. The actual news: Both President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have accepted their Party’s nomination.

(I note that, despite some “excellent”, “well-intentioned” and “perfectly sound” advice from the our friends to the right, it wasn’t Hillary Clinton accepting the VP nomination…)

But the conventions were so much more than nomination machines. They provided Americans with a well-packaged set of arguments for why their candidates should be elected.

I listened to some of the content from both conventions, and man, what a difference! First, the Republicans sounded angrier. During the previous decade they peddled fear during their conventions. This decade they seemed to be peddling some bizarre moralistic hate. But the biggest difference is that the Republicans were selling us yesterday—a world without concerns for the environment, a world lacking equality for most non-Caucasian-hetersexual-male humans, a world lacking humanity and compassion. To me, it comes off as social and economic Darwinism—petty, selfish, greedy, primative thinking.

In contrast, the DNC was filled with thoughts of a better America—a future based on the future instead of clinging to a distant (and largely illusory) past. It was hopeful; it was optimistic; it was long term; it was about creating a better world together. It was a vision that embodies and embraces the single most distinctive trait of Homo sapiens: Our hyper-social nature that has empowered us to take collective action on huge scales to benefit whole societies. America is a shining example of this uniquely human trait.

Of course another huge difference between the two conventions was the use and abuse of Truth. Sure…some factual mistakes were made by speakers at both conventions. But there are elements at the very foundations of Romney’s argument to be President that are based on fabrications, distortions, or taking words out of context. As you can tell, I’m not buying hate, but peddling hate using lies, distortions, and out-of-context sound bites isn’t a winning strategy. Politically, you are what you eat, and too many people are smart enough to walk when being fed a constant diet of bullshit.

There were a number of inspiring speeches at the DNC. I’ll just cover the four biggies (and without suggestion that there were no other top-notch speeches at the convention):

  • I though President Obama had a solid speech, despite sounding rather horse and, maybe, a little tired. His arguments were coherent, convincing and, at times, inspiring. But, speaking as someone who sat in Mile High stadium as Sen. Obama delivered his first acceptance speech, it wasn’t his best address ever. Let’s give it a B+. It did the job quite nicely.
  • Michelle Obama gave a solid performance. I am constantly impressed by her ability to “play” First Lady, given the high power Type-A professional position she gave up to become FLOTUS. She is a most impressive human being.
  • Joe Biden was incredible. This speech was on par with the one he gave to the NAACP this year. Wingnuts have a strong tendency to underestimate Joe Biden. And, empirically, it hasn’t served them well.
  • Clearly, the top prize goes to Bill Clinton, who can serve it up like no other. Yes, my wingnut friends, Clinton definitely blows Reagan away in oratorical prowess. I challenge anyone to find a speech by Reagan that even came close to this one. Bill was on fire.

Ultimately, the DNC seemed like a celebration of the future. I liked the vision.

270 Stoopid Comments

Biden and Obama speak at the DNC

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/6/12, 6:25 pm

Vice President Joe Biden and President Barack Obama are the last two speakers at the DNC.

Watch the livestream here. (I’ll convert the speeches to videos later.)



139 Stoopid Comments

Elizabeth Warren speaks

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/6/12, 4:19 pm

I talk to nurses and programmers, salespeople and firefighters—people who bust their tails every day. Not one of them—not one—stashes their money in the Cayman Islands to avoid paying their fair share of taxes.

(Full text.)

20 Stoopid Comments

The Big Dog speaks

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/6/12, 10:19 am

In Tampa, the Republican argument against the president’s re-election was actually pretty simple—pretty snappy. It went something like this: We left him a total mess. He hasn’t cleaned it up fast enough. So fire him and put us back in.

Now, there were two other attacks on the president in Tampa I think deserve an answer. First, both Governor Romney and Congressman Ryan attacked the president for allegedly robbing Medicare of $716 billion. That’s the same attack they leveled against the Congress in 2010, and they got a lot of votes on it. But it’s not true.

Here’s what really happened. There were no cuts to benefits at all. None. What the president did was to save money by taking the recommendations of a commission of professionals to cut unwarranted subsidies to providers and insurance companies that were not making people healthier and were not necessary to get the providers to provide the service.

And instead of raiding Medicare, he used the savings to close the doughnut hole in the Medicare drug program and—you all got to listen carefully to this; this is really important—and to add eight years to the life of the Medicare trust fund so it is solvent till 2024.

So President Obama and the Democrats didn’t weaken Medicare; they strengthened Medicare. Now, when Congressman Ryan looked into that TV camera and attacked President Obama’s Medicare savings as, quote, the biggest, coldest power play, I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry because that $716 billion is exactly, to the dollar, the same amount of Medicare savings that he has in his own budget. You got to get one thing—it takes some brass to attack a guy for doing what you did.

(Full text).

71 Stoopid Comments

Sen. Murray speaks

by Darryl — Wednesday, 9/5/12, 8:06 pm

“With a Republican Congress sitting shotgun, Mitt Romney will put the middle class on the roof and take us for a long, painful ride”

(Full text.)

4 Stoopid Comments

Michelle speaks

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/4/12, 10:48 pm

165 Stoopid Comments

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/4/12, 3:42 pm

DLBottlePlease join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. Believe it our not, this will be the first week of the 2012 presidential General Election. That’s worth discussing. Oh…and the Democratic Convention is now underway.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter meets. And the Spokane chapter and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meet this Thursday.

With 236 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

192 Stoopid Comments

Poll Analysis: Romney slips a bit

by Darryl — Monday, 9/3/12, 6:01 pm


Obama Romney
97.2% probability of winning 2.8% probability of winning
Mean of 305 electoral votes Mean of 233 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 302 to 236 electoral votes. If the election was held then, Obama would be expected to win with a 96.9% probability, and Romney with a 3.1% probability.

Only seven new polls covering five states have been released since then. But, on the heels of the Republican convention and the start of the Democratic convention, this seems like a good place to take stock of the race. First, the new polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
FL PPP 31-Aug 02-Sep 1548 2.5 48 47 O+1
MI EPIC/MRA 28-Aug 28-Aug 1200 2.6 49 46 O+3
MO PPP 28-Aug 29-Aug 621 3.9 41 53 R+12
NC PPP 31-Aug 02-Sep 1012 3.1 48 48 tie
NC SurveyUSA 26-Aug 30-Aug 543 4.3 43 46 R+3
NC Elon U 25-Aug 30-Aug 1089 3.0 43 47 R+4
WV R.L. Repass 22-Aug 25-Aug 401 4.9 38 52 R+14

Close as ever, the new Florida poll has Obama leading Romney by +1%. This poll has been taken as evidence for a lack of a strong convention (or Ryan) bump. But, who knows in Florida, the next poll may go strongly for Romney.

Michigan puts Obama over Romney by a rather weak +3%. The longer term trend suggests a much tighter race than earlier in the year. But Obama still seems to have the advantage:

ObamaRomney03Aug12-03Sep12Michigan

A surprise poll comes out of Missouri, where Romney leads Obama by +12%. This double digit lead is a wider gap than we have seen recently. But the real surprise is the increasing variability seen among pollsters. Just two polls ago, Rasmussen found Obama leading Romney by +1%:

ObamaRomney03Aug12-03Sep12Missouri

Three North Carolina polls mostly favor Romney. The two tie in the most recent poll. The two other polls give Romney a +3% and +4% advantage. With six “current” polls in the state, the weight of evidence is that Romney would win the state (now) with a 69% probability:

ObamaRomney03Aug12-03Sep12North Carolina

In West Virginia, Romney leads Obama by a +14%. Believe it or not, this race has tightened up since the last couple of polls.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 97,197 times and Romney wins 2,803 times (including the 330 ties). Obama receives (on average) 305 (+3) to Romney’s 233 (-3) electoral votes. Obama has a 97.2% (+0.3%) probability of winning and Romney has a 2.8% (-0.3%) probability of winning an election held now. The difference from the previous analysis is really too small to “make” anything over.

Now, let’s consider the longer term trends in this race. I’ve done as series of Monte Carlo analyses, conducted every seven days using all the polls from the last year. For each simulation, I follow the same rules of including only polls from the past month (and the most recent poll before then if there are none) (FAQ). The following graph shows how the election is “scored” over time. The middle (magenta) line is the median number of electoral votes for Obama. When that line dips below the dashed line, Romney wins. Above it, Obama wins.

The pair of tan lines show the interval of electoral college totals within which 75% of the results for Obama were found. And the outer green lines show the interval of electoral college totals within which 95% of the results for Obama were found.

Romney was at his best in the 4th quarter of 2011. Even then, his probability of winning the election was never greater than about 30%. Beginning in late January, Romney slipped into zero percent territory, and has been there until recently. He has now recovered to same place he was in late January.

The general election has just started, so we are at a point with much potential for big change in the standings. In 2008, we saw McCain begin to do, only to have Obama run away with it in the end.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Read more…]

42 Stoopid Comments

Labor Day open thread

by Darryl — Monday, 9/3/12, 9:30 am

Why Unions matter more than ever.

Roy ZImmerman: The Problem With Democrats:

“In 1968, France was a dangerous place to be for a 21-year-old American, but Mitt Romney was right in the middle of it.”

Bill Maher’s New Rule: GOP must admit George W. Bush exists .

The making of Labor Day.

The redevelopment of Yesler Terrace.

Chair Talk:

  • The Million Dollar Chair.
  • Jon celebrates Clint Eastwood’s ‘Fistful Of Awesome’ speech
  • The old man from Gran Torino crashes the RNC.
  • Bill Maher defends Clint Eastwood.
  • Clint Eastwood’s Comedy Central Chair Roast.

Bashir: Is Paul Ryan the fastest ‘Kenyan’ candidate ever???

176 Stoopid Comments

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 9/1/12, 12:37 am

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Aloha, Hawaii!:

The Obama-Romney rap battle.

The debate between Inslee and McKenna.

Who is Paul Ryan?

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, South Carolina edition:

Pap: GOP bound to fail.

Thom and Pap: Obama endorses Constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United.

Liberal Viewer: The most negative campaign ever?

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

White House: West Wing Week.

The G.O.P. Multimedia Extravaganza!

  • Young Turks: Mitt on Abortion.
  • The Worst jokes from the convention (via Political Wire).
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: RNC 2012—Romney for President?
  • Mitt: “Say”.
  • Young Turks: Tim Pawlenty’s jokes at the Republican Convention.
  • Clint on Obama:

    • Clint Eastwood offers a rambling and surreal bit of “performance art” at the convention.
    • Raw Story interviews Clint Eastwood’s chair
    • Jonathan Mann: Clint Eastwood Talking To A Chair:
    • SlateTV: Eastwooding
    • Young Turks: Clint Eastwood and the invisible Obama.
    • Ann Telnaes: Romney talks to his chair.
    • Maddow: Eastwood’s terribly timed RNC meltdown
    • Sam Seder: Clint Eastwood, Mitt Romney & the RNC in a nutshell
    • Comedian John Fugelsang reacts to Clint Eastwood
  • Sam Seder and friends on Fact checking Paul Ryan’s RNC Speech (hint: full of lies!).
  • Thom: It’s all another Republican con job.
  • Young Turks: Mitt’s acceptance speech.
  • Young Turks: The Ryan acceptance speech.
  • Sam Seder: Ann Romney’s RNC Speech (or Tell Us How You REALLY Feel!).
  • Thom: How the MSM helps the GOP Big Lie.
  • Mark Fiore: The Love Me Mitt doll!
  • Thom: GOP’s nightmarish response to MLK’s “I Have a Dream”.
  • Mitt’s convention: Not going as planned.
  • Jon would settle for ANY truth in Ryan’s speech
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: RNC 2012, elephants and a Newt!
  • Jonathan Mann: Your Monster’s Come To Life
  • Sharpton: The history of Mitt Romney’s flips and flops
  • Young Turks: Buying Mitt Romney…The real Convention Is at Cracker Bay.
  • Sam Seder: RNC attendees throw peanuts at African American CNN camera operator. “This is how we feed the animals”.
  • Mitt accidentally calls the United States a “company”
  • Thom: Can Romney flip-flop from being wealthy and out of touch?
  • Young Turks: Paul Ryan blames Obama for S&P downgrade?!?
  • Sam Seder: Jan Brewer endorses Obama at RNC?
  • Mitt Romney: You didn’t build it…you DESTROYED it!

Roy Zimmerman: Mitt’s America the Beatiful:

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Maddow: Court strikes down Ohio early voter restrictions.

The Democratic plan for gun control.

Veterans who support Obama.

Liberal Viewer: Colbert in the tank for Obama?

Ann Telnaes: Republican VP candidates, past and present.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, The Idaho verse.

Romney’s plan to “strengthen” the middle class.

Young Turks: The Michelle Obama slave mag cover.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

223 Stoopid Comments

Poll Analysis: Even more Ryan bump

by Darryl — Wednesday, 8/29/12, 4:00 pm


Obama Romney
96.9% probability of winning 3.1% probability of winning
Mean of 302 electoral votes Mean of 236 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed G.O.P. presidential candidate Mitt Romney edging up to almost a 1% probability of winning an election held now. Romney lagged in expected electoral votes to President Barack Obama by 230 to 308.

Since then, 15 new polls covering 12 states have been released.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO Keating 21-Aug 22-Aug 500 4.4 48 44 O+4
CT Quinnipiac 22-Aug 26-Aug 1472 2.6 52 45 O+7
CT PPP 22-Aug 23-Aug 881 — 53 40 O+13
FL CNN/TIME 22-Aug 26-Aug 895 3.5 50 46 O+4
IA PPP 23-Aug 26-Aug 1244 2.8 47 45 O+2
MI Mitchell 23-Aug 23-Aug 1277 2.7 46.6 46.7 R+0.1
MO Mason-Dixon 22-Aug 23-Aug 625 4.0 43 50 R+7
MO Rasmussen 22-Aug 22-Aug 500 4.5 47 46 O+1
NV PPP 23-Aug 26-Aug 831 3.4 50 47 O+3
NJ Eagleton-Rutgers 23-Aug 25-Aug 710 3.5 51 37 O+14
NC CNN/Time 22-Aug 26-Aug 766 3.5 47 48 R+1
NC SurveyUSA 18-Aug 23-Aug 540 4.3 43 43 tie
OH Columbus Dispatch 15-Aug 25-Aug 1758 2.1 45 45 tie
PA Philadelphia Inquirer 21-Aug 23-Aug 601 4.0 51 42 O+9
VA Rasmussen 23-Aug 23-Aug 500 4.5 47 47 tie

Obama takes the latest Colorado poll by +4% over Romney, and he leads in four of the five current polls for the state.

Two polls in Connecticut both go to Obama. The Quinnipiac poll has Obama up by a modest +7%. A slightly older PPP poll has Obama up by +13%.

The latest Florida poll has Obama leading Romney by +4%. The current Florida polls go 4 to 2 for Romney, and Romney is given a 97% chance of winning the state right now.

Obama is up by +2% in the new Iowa poll. The candidates split the two current polls, but the poll that has Obama up is the much larger of the two: ObamaRomney29Jul12-29Aug12Iowa

In Michigan, Romney leads Obama by a weak +0.1%. The candidates split the four current polls, but the weight of the evidence has Obama up slightly with a 57% probability of winning an election held now.

The candidates split the two Missouri polls, with Romney up by +7% in one and Obama up by +1% in another. Obama has only led in this one poll out of the 6 current Missouri polls: ObamaRomney29Jul12-29Aug12Missouri

Nevada has Obama up by a slender +3% over Romney, slightly beating the +2% he had in the other current poll: ObamaRomney29Jul12-29Aug12Nevada

Little surprise that New Jersey has Obama up by a double-digit lead (+14%) over Romney.

In North Carolina, Romney has a +1% lead over Obama in one poll and the candidates are tied in another. The weight of evidence in the five current polls has Romney up by the slightest margin and a 56% probability of taking the state in an election held now:
ObamaRomney29Jul12-29Aug12North Carolina

Ohio is a tie at 45% each in the new poll. But Obama has led in three of the current six polls (with two ties), so the weight of evidence gives him an 87% probability of taking the state right now:
ObamaRomney29Jul12-29Aug12Ohio

Another Pennsylvania poll gives Obama a +9% lead over Romney. Obama take all three of the current polls and would be expected to win an election now with a 99% probability.

Virginia is all tied up at 47% in the newest poll. Overall, Obama takes 4 of the six current polls, so he ends up with a 90% probability of winning an election held now.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 96,863 times and Romney wins 3,137 times (including the 449 ties). Obama receives (on average) 302 (-6) to Romney’s 236 (+6) electoral votes. In an election held now, we would expect Obama to win with a 96.9% (-2.3%) probability and Romney with a 3.1% (+2.3%) probability.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Read more…]

32 Stoopid Comments

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/28/12, 3:10 pm

DLBottle

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. Material for tonight’s discussions: The hurricane that is the G.O.P. convention, Rob McKenna’s refusal to release his tax returns, and, perhaps, today’s Arizona, Vermont, Alaska and Oklahoma elections ….

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. And on Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.

With 235 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

73 Stoopid Comments

What is Rob McKenna hiding?

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/28/12, 1:19 pm

Rob McKenna is refusing to release his tax returns:

Washington gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna said Tuesday he will not release any of his tax returns, dismissing the matter as a distraction from important policy discussions.

McKenna, the state’s attorney general, said he has disclosed enough information in the personal financial forms that candidates file with the state. He called the tax-return debate – both here and nationally – a “phony issue.”

McKenna, a Republican, said his political rivals are attempting “to change the subject away from the real issues of the state.”

Democratic rival Jay Inslee, a former congressman, released five years of tax returns last week, and his campaign had called on McKenna to do the same.

I’m sure McKenna wants you to believe that he is taking a principled stand in refusing to release his tax returns, but his recalcitrance is problematic for the gubernatorial wannabe.

First, even if the “principled stand” hypothesis is true, standing tall with Mitt Romney isn’t going to endear him to Washingtonians. The state is just not that into Mittens. In other words, if McKenna wants to peddle himself as a “different kind of Republican,” one that is palatable to the voters of our state, he shouldn’t emulate, pretend to be, or come off as, in any way, an entitled one-percenter.

Romney has good reason to hide his tax returns. He’s done the political calculation. Releasing his tax returns would be much more damaging than disclosure. And it really is understandable—the fabulously wealthy have more opportunity to dodge taxes in ways that, if disclosed to the rest of us, would induce a bout of severe vertigo followed by repulsion-induced wrenching.

But McKenna…not so many tax dodging options. So if McKenna is “standing on principle,” he takes all the damage of non-discosure without any of the benefits.

(And he will take damage from this. Washingtonians are big on transparency. Don’t think for a moment that McKenna’s non-disclosure is going to be swept under the rug.)

So, really, if McKenna is merely standing on “principle”, he’s foolishly hurting himself.

On the other hand, maybe Rob isn’t a fool. Maybe he has done the calculation of relative political damage from disclosure versus non-disclosure. And he came down on the side of hiding his tax returns. If so, what is Rob McKenna hiding?

Is McKenna being foolish here? Or does he really have something to hide in his tax returns?

Intelligent voters want to know.

25 Stoopid Comments

Jay’s Got a Friend

by Darryl — Monday, 8/27/12, 2:56 pm

11 Stoopid Comments

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