Gov. Gregoire’s approval ratings continue to go up. President Bush’s support continues to go down.
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XXXXX DRUDGE REPORT XXXXX SUN MAY 21, 2006 20:00:02 ET XXXXX
DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE WORKED TO DEFEAT NAGIN
**Exclusive**
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) secretly placed political operatives in the city of New Orleans to work against the reelection efforts of incumbent Democrat Mayor Ray Nagin, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned.
DNC Chairman Howard Dean made the decision himself to back mayoral candidate and sitting Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu (D-LA), sources reveal.
Dean came to the decision to back the white challenger, over the African-American incumbent Nagin, despite concerns amongst senior black officials in the Party that the DNC should stay neutral.
The DNC teams actively worked to defeat Nagin under the auspice of the committee’s voting rights program.
The party’s field efforts also coincided with a national effort by Democrat contributors to support Landrieu.
Landrieu had outraised Nagin by a wide margin – $3.3 million to $541,980.
Preliminary campaign finance reports indicate many of Landrieu’s contributions came from out of state white Democrat leaders and financiers, including a $1,000 contribution from Sen. Ben Nelson’s (D-NE) PAC.
The defeat of Mitch Landrieu is the latest setback for Dean’s often criticized field operation.
In his victory speech late Saturday night, Nagin praised President Bush.
“You and I have probably been the most vilified politicians in the country. But I want to thank you for moving that promise that you made in Jackson Square forward,” Nagin said.
Developing…
http://www.drudgereport.com/flash5no.htm
Looks like “Deanie” has been doing a “heckuva job” as Chair of the Democrat National Committee. The voters in New Orleans sure told “Deanie” where he can go. Hopefully, “Deanie” can use more DNC money and resources to help white Democrats defeat black Democrats.
Drudge, huh? Richard, your “erudition” never ceases to amaze me. Your clients sure get high-wattage intelligence if you take anything Matt says as credible.
ASSnonymous: Drudge DID NOT REPORT Karl Rove getting indicted like many of the lunatic moonbat lefty sites 10 days ago. He’s good enough for me.
NUFF SAID!!!
RPope: Yes the DNC is a white guy racist club. Too bad Al and Jesse have their heads too far up Dean’s ASS to see the light of day!!! White DNC leaders don’t care about blacks getting in power. Now the wife and I were shocked that Ray Nagin was returned to mayorship, and it was white voters who returned him, so this is another lesson for Dean & the DNC. I wonder if the NO/LA crowd is fed up with the Landrieu family!!!!
IF and it’s a VERY big IT, Pope-A-Dope had ANY credibility, you have to think it’s gone after he admits he reads Drudge. Remember when Drudge got caught making shit up, got sued, lost and finally admitted he’d created a work of fiction? That’s a hell of a source there Dickey. You sure are on top of things allright. HE HE!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12875191/
We got five republican assholes to admit their guilt and to go to jail. We now have a high-ranking White House (read that Bush) official going on trial for the Jackoff scandal. Another day in the culture of corruption.
Hey Puddybutt – your hero Lush Flimbaugh is peeing in a cup for his probation officer today. Better send your kids down there to see how it works. They’re probably about to be busted as druggies too since the only example you hold out for them is a stoner! HE HE!
Goldy,
GREAT opportunity. Rep. William Jefferson D-LA, has been caught red handed with bribes.
Please take this opportunity to call for his immediate removal.
Failing to do so will just add fuel to the partisan fire. Doing so would help silence your critics who say you believe Dems shouldn’t be held to same standards as Reps.
goldy,
are you apologizing for your bling defense of Logan; data now shows 20% error rate in absentee voting.
gee, you guys are piggy, you don’t need 20% extra to win in kc.
Re: #1:
Drudge has a piece up about Dean right now, claiming that he supposedly made a personal decision to send DNC resources in support of Landrieu in the New Orleans mayoral election. There are several notable aspects of this piece:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/5/21/224045/332
Well, well, turns out that Nagin was a closet Bushie!!! I get it. All you spinbots can now blame those schoolbuses on Blanco now.
Yeah right, Brownie did a heckuva job, whatever…
President Bush’s support continues to go down.
Why does your level of dishonesty continue to go up Goldy? Bush’s poll numbers are rising (http://www.rasmussenreports.co.....proval.htm ). The poll numbers you linked are only for his approval rating among Mexican-Americans.
Democrat Congressman caught on tape taking $100,000 bribe from undercover FBI informant
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12903856/?GT1=8199
CHALLENGE
Someone post the list of all Democrat politicians at the federal level who have been indicted, arrested, charged or convicted in the last six years.
Now post the same list for republicans.
Let me help you….Dems 0 Rethugs 12
Case closed.
Good thing Bush can use his storm troopers to plant cash in a Democratic Congressman’s freezer. That’s the only way Bush and his mob can take the spotlight off their own serious corruption.
By the way, I note that the righties had no defense or response to the list of 50 count em 50 republican scandals I posted on this board lately. Why is that? Do the republicans on this board support the illegal conduct of their party?
One of the prosecution’s expected key witnesses will be Neil Volz, a former chief of staff to Ney, who just a week ago pleaded guilty to entering into a conspiracy with Abramoff to corrupt public officials and violate lobbying rules. Prosecutor Peter Zeidenberg said, in a pretrial hearing, that Volz likely will testify about suggestions from Safavian about creating language, to be inserted into legislation, that could have helped convey some GSA-owned property to Abramoff and his clients. Abramoff sought leases on the Old Post Office in downtown Washington and a former Navy facility in the White Oak section of Silver Spring, Md.
More e-mail exchanges
On July 28, additional e-mail exchanges between Abramoff and Safavian show that the lobbyist wanted Safavian’s advice on editing a letter to the GSA, seeking use of facilities at the former Naval Surface Weapons Research Center in Silver Spring for a private school Abramoff and his wife had founded. “How about this?” Abramoff asked Safavian in an e-mail with a draft of the letter.
Prosecutors will present the e-mails as portraying a sordid relationship between a government official and a wily lobbyist who dangled the good life; peppering Safavian with invitations to play racquetball or golf or to meals at his downtown restaurant, Signatures. Abramoff even offered Safavian a chance to join his “band of merry men” at the Greenberg/Traureg lobbying firm, when Safavian left government service. In exchange, according to prosecutors, Abramoff sought favored treatment and privileged inside information.
He dad, did you agree to pay for our honeymoon suite? If you want, you can watch!!!!! Or just read about it on Drudge…the ‘honest’ blog…lmao
10.
LOL!!!
75% of Minnow’s bogus error “analysis” is duplicated ballots. Evidently, right wing nuts believe that people who follow the instructions on their ballot cast suspect votes.
A very high percentage, I would be conservative and say 85%, of duplicated ballots are done because: 1) the voter made a mistake (X out of mistaken vote) 2) ballot is too damaged to be read by the optical scanner (torn, marks in timing area, warped, etc) but clearly marked 3) ballot marked in red, green, pencil or other problematic color 4) the machine cannot read what appears to be a perfect ballot.
Ballot correction is needed in any automated system, which only uncerscores the point that we put too much emphasis on machine ballot counting. The closest method to a perfect count is a hand-count of the ballots. Duplication is as accurate at the hand-count method, and duplicated ballots reflects the voters’ intent best of all in machine counted elections.
@15 There have been exactly 2 convictions or admissions of guilt (Abramoff, Cunningham). Compare that with 50 or so from the Clinton administration…
I have a solution for all who think duplication should not be done.
Put a notice on the outside envelope with a check box that says “Count ballot as received”. The elections staff can segregate all those envelopes and place them in special batches that will not be duplicated.
I’d love to see the stats on the number of voters who take “advantage” of that “improvement” to balloting.
I’d encourage all Republicans to take advantage of my suggested “improvement”.
Michael @
“Why does your level of dishonesty continue to go up Goldy? “
Why does your level of idiocy continue to go up Michael? Oh yeah…you have Wingnut syndrome.
“Bush’s poll numbers are rising (http://www.rasmussenreports.co.....proval.htm ).”
Ummmm…here’s some advice for you, Michael…leave statistics to those who understand statistics. The numbers you point to show no statistical evidence that Bush’s number are rising. (The “rise” is within the sampling error.) The only trend with statistical support is a long term decline in approval since Feb 05.
Here
is a better visualization of Bush’s falling approval numbers: Each symbol is a separate poll. The slide continues….
Well, well, turns out that Nagin was a closet Bushie!!! I get it. All you spinbots can now blame those schoolbuses on Blanco now.
Yeah right, Brownie did a heckuva job, whatever…
Commentby Clueless Democrat— 5/22/06@ 7:42 am
Clueless,
I blame the LANDRIEUS and other liberal Democrats for the flooded schoolbus fiasco. The City of New Orleans government does not run the school system. There is an elected Orleans Parish School Board that runs the school system. City government and the mayor have nothing to do with the schools or the school buses.
Who is the President of the Orleans Parish Fool Board?
http://www.nops.k12.la.us/content/board/index.html
Democrat PHYLLIS LANDRIEU. The aunt of Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu and U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu.
By the way, the liberal Democrat LANDRIEU family is such good friends with black folks that all of them have attended private schools, instead of the overwhelming black public school system — including Mary, Mitch, their father Moon (mayor of New Orleans 1970-1978 and a Carter Cabinet official), and especially Phyllis, the Fool Board president.
The Landrieus may not like public schools, but they are public fools. Thank God that New Orleans voters finally realized that. They sure showed the Landrieus and sure showed Howard Dean and the DNC.
There have been exactly 2 convictions or admissions of guilt (Abramoff, Cunningham).
Wrong. There were more than that just in the GOP phone jamming scandal.
They sure showed the Landrieus and sure showed Howard Dean and the DNC.
See #11 above.
Sen. John Kerry joined most of his Democratic colleagues last week in voting to build a wall along 370 miles of the U.S.-Mexican border.
But he now says that after the wall is built it should be taken down as soon as possible.
“I voted for it,” Kerry acknowledged Friday while speaking to the New England Council breakfast.
But in quotes picked up by the Boston Herald, the Massachusetts Democrat added: “If I were making the long-term decision, I’d announce, you know, hopefully it’s a temporary measure, and we can take it down.” [………………………………………………………………..This is great!!! John Fucking Kerry voted for the fence after he voter against it, or, is it he voted against the fence before he voted for it??]
[Maybe it’s “global cooling”!!!!!!! Oh no!!! What will we do!! Al Gore………….SAVE US!!!!!!!] In just two days, former Vice President Al Gore’s blockbuster global warming movie, “An Inconvenient Truth,” hits theaters nationwide. But the weather doesn’t seem to be cooperating.
Instead of the sweltering late-May temperatures that might give the impression there was something to Gore’s claims that the planet is melting, New Yorkers turned up their thermostats Sunday night to fend off an unusual pre-Memorial Day chill.
In the lower Hudson Valley, frost warnings were issued, as the overnight temperature dipped to a chilly 38 degrees.
The rest of the country was enjoying unseasonably cool weather as well, with Dallas and Atlanta – where the temperature often tops 90 degrees by late-May – coming in 10 degrees below seasonal norms.
Looks like Bush has a problem with his Mexican housekeeper. This will not bode well with the crazy fucked up right wing whackjobs he needs to keep the House and Senate!
Harry Tuttle..
If i want you to count my ballot, I will hand it to you. Don’t fudge up some “duplicate ballot”
If you can’t read what i wrote/marked, then throw it away.
Letting the dupes of the politicians fudge up “duplicates” is a means of voting fraud.
Again, i’d rather you trash my ballot, than have freedom to make up my “intent”
re 1: The Rovian “defeat is victory” paradigm doesn’t work anymore. So , you are trying to claim a Republican victory because Nagin won. What a misguided loser you are.
NOTE: The “story” continues to fester and pustulate on the aptly names”DRUDGE” Report. It will never, however, gain any traction.
Poor Michael @22 he couldn’t find any Dems convicted in the last two years so he had to go back to republican play book 101 blame Clinton – and then he lied about the number of people implicated in the CURRENT White House 12 so far and that’s only those who have been arrested. There are 43 more coming!
I’m pretty sure that Pope-A-Dope’s cut and paste from Drudge constitutes a copyright violation. Much more than fair use would allow. I guess you’re all for following the law Dickey except when you’re not!
@27 We were talking about national level leaders, not a couple of punks with a radio. If you want to stoop to that level, I guess we should throw in Democrats who slash tires to keep people from getting to the polls.
32.
I agree with you whole heartedly, righton.
Join me in lobbying for the “do not duplicate” outer envelope option.
We were talking about national level leaders, not a couple of punks with a radio. If you want to stoop to that level, I guess we should throw in Democrats who slash tires to keep people from getting to the polls.
You really don’t know a thing about the N.H. phone jamming scandal, do you?
re 9: This guy was set up by the FBI for the express purpose of making the corruption appear to be a “bi-partisan” problem and not the Republican corruption problem that it is.
The very fact that the REPUBLICAN congress framed the debate as LOBBYING REFORM instead of CONGRESSIONAL ETHICS reform speaks volumes. There would be no need to outlaw free meals and Golf trips if there wasn’t a group of people willing to take the freebies in exchange for selling us out to corporations.
We need publicly financed campaigns for the sake of this country. The principle that corporations do not need political free speech like a person . It is just a ruse to keep the money and power in the same families after Progressive reform in the early 20th century tried to break up our monied aristocracy.
@25 You link shows no numbers from May, but thanks for playing anyway. Bush approval rating has a 5 point gain, not within margin of error: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,194278,00.html
Poll: Border Plan Gives Bush A Boost
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories.....1566.shtml
@38 You really don’t know anything about tire slashing in Wisconsin, do you?
@34 You claim that there have been 12 convictions/guilty please in the Bush White House. Care to elaborate? Names please?
After rereading the thread, I’ll apologize for one part of my postings. The discussion was indeed about federal level politicians, and the phone jamming scandal hasn’t convicted a national level official yet. I apoligize for the confusion.
In the GOP phone jamming scandal, they’ve convicted the Republican party regional director, a New Hampshire Republican party official, and the owner of the telemarketing firm.
Yes, this sounds like “a couple of punks with radios.”
And perhaps Michael could tell us who is footing the bill for James Tobin’s legal fees?
And perhaps Michael could tell us how many time those “punks with radios” called the White House that day?
apoligize
And I apologize for not proof-reading my apology.
Michael @ 40
“@25 You link shows no numbers from May, but thanks for playing anyway.”
Oh, my little Wingnut Michael, here is more advice for you. Leave READING to the adults. Look carefully at the graph (look for big letters, too) and you will see that the graph is current through May 20th.
Blinded by Wingnuttery….
(Oh…and thanks for the Fox News Poll that shows a significant, upward bounce from 32% to 38% [*snicker*]. I’ll take the aggregate picture, thank you, which so far does not show any short term bump, but strongly supports a long-term slide downward)
@45 Having a little “20-May-06” in the corner is meaningless. There don’t appear to be any points on the graph that are even close to half way between the axis label April-06 and July-06. None of the data points depicted were after the Bush immigration speech, which I (and CBS) claims gave him a bump, so your link really is irrelevant.
You’re just batshit fuckin’ crazy, dude.
RudeJacks @ 47, 48
Let’s hope the Democrats waste a lot of money of lawyer fees.
And if Drudge’s story ends up not having a lot of factual support, what better way to spread it around, than to have the DNC threatening to sue or actually suing? Of course, if Drudge is correct, the DNC’s actions will also help to spread the story.
If the DNC actually sues Drudge, then Drudge gets to do something call “discovery”, and take depositions of Howard Dean and other DNC operatives, as well as compel the production of records that the DNC would otherwise have been able to keep secret.
Either way — it’s a win-win situation for Matt Drudge and the Republicans.
And the voters in New Orleans (especially the BLACK voters) sure showed the Landrieus and the DNC.
Man…you ARE fucking crazy.
The DNC is NOT the RNC, despite what you wingnuts want to believe.
Michael @ 46
“Having a little “20-May-06″ in the corner is meaningless. There don’t appear to be any points on the graph that are even close to half way between the axis label April-06 and July-06.
None of the data points depicted were after the Bush immigration speech, which I (and CBS) claims gave him a bump, so your link really is irrelevant.”
Here is a clue on how to calibrate the x-axis, Wingnut Michael. (Cripes…am I going to have to show you how to wipe you ass, too?). See that one Harris poll that has dipped below 30%? A quick Google search reveals that that poll was published on May 11th.
A few seconds of squinting should convince you that the width of each poll symbol is about 2.5 weeks; hence, the most recent poll (about 1/2 a symbol later) falls pretty close to 20 May—just like the graph says.
Richard Pope @ 49
“Either way – it’s a win-win situation for Matt Drudge and the Republicans.”
Yes! Republican victory through lies and deceit!
All glory to the Party. One people, one nation, one leader! Sieg Heil! Sieg Heil! Sieg Heil!
52.
If you don’t want to measure the distance between dots, look here:
http://www.pollkatz.homestead......hindex.htm
And the voters in New Orleans (especially the BLACK voters) sure showed the Landrieus and the DNC.
See #11 above
Commentby Puddybud – GEORGE BUSH IS PRESIDENT! 2,455 …
@51 Thanks for proving my point. Are you trying to argue that the Harris poll of May 11 tells us anything about the bounce Bush got from his May 15 speech??
@32 Sounds like you don’t like Washington State Election Law. ‘Course4 with your track record in the last statewide election, I can see why.
If you don’t like the law, Work to Change IT . Otherwise, Obey It . Can’t change it? Or abide by it? THEN LEAVE .
Michael @ 56
“Are you trying to argue that the Harris poll of May 11 tells us anything about the bounce Bush got from his May 15 speech??”
Nope, I realize that this “reading” thing is a challenge for you, but if you re-read the thread you well see that, aside from some remedial education, my points were (1) that your statement “Bush’s poll numbers are rising” was not supported by the poll you cited, and (2) the only statistically supported trend (i.e. replicable over multiple polls) is a long-term decline in Bush’s approval rating.
If you don’t like the law, Work to Change IT . Otherwise, Obey It . Can’t change it? Or abide by it? THEN LEAVE .
Commentby Tree Frog Farmer— 5/22/06@ 11:03 am [……..Er, would you give the same advice to the 11 million Mexican illegal aliens [potential Democrat voters in 2008]?
dj:
While Michael seems to have problems with statistics, it probably should be pointed out to him that the Fox News Poll he cites states that at 38% Bush is still below his 2006 average of 39%. So I can’t imagine anyone at the White House is happy with that.
It is amazing that wingnuts like Michael are so desperate for any good news that 38% approval is consider a good thing.
But let’s look at how Bush is doing with immigration:
Hispanic voters, many of whom responded favorably to President Bush’s campaign appeals emphasizing patriotism, family and religious values in Spanish-language media in 2004, are turning away from the administration on immigration and a host of other issues, according to a new survey.
At the same time, separate polls show that conservative white Republicans are the voting group most hostile to the administration’s support for policies that would move toward the legalization of many undocumented immigrants.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....00964.html
And here is the trend line for Bush in the Washington Post Poll:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....01345.html
But what does this all mean in real life?
With approval ratings for Bush and congressional Republicans at a low ebb, GOP strategists see signs of weakness where they least expected it — including a conservative, military-dominated suburb such as Virginia Beach — and fear that their problems could grow worse unless the national mood brightens.
Some veterans of the 1994 GOP takeover of Congress see worrisome parallels between then and now, in the way once-safe districts are turning into potential problems. Incumbents’ poll numbers have softened. Margins against their Democratic opponents have narrowed. Republican voters appear disenchanted. The Bush effect now amounts to a drag of five percentage points or more in many districts.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....01921.html
Wow, no wonder the wingnuts have to lie to themselves about the polls. I’m sure if this was 1974, Michael and the like would be talking about the great Nixon comeback and how well the war is really going in Viet Nam.
[Check this out!!! Let’s see if a black Democrat is treated the same way as Republican Duke Cunningham. Watch Jesse and Al and the CBC go ape shit!!!!!……………………………………………………………….] A congressman under investigation for bribery was caught on videotape accepting $100,000 in $100 bills from an FBI informant whose conversations with the lawmaker also were recorded, according to a court document released Sunday. Agents later found the cash hidden in his freezer.
At one audiotaped meeting, Rep. William Jefferson, D-La., chuckles about writing in code to keep secret what the government contends was his corrupt role in getting his children a cut of a communications company’s deal for work in Africa.
As Jefferson and the informant passed notes about what percentage the lawmaker’s family might receive, the congressman “began laughing and said, ‘All these damn notes we’re writing to each other as if we’re talking, as if the FBI is watching,'” according to the affidavit. …
As for the $100,000, the government says Jefferson got the money in a leather briefcase last July 30 at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Arlington. The plan was for the lawmaker to use the cash to bribe a high-ranking Nigerian official — the name is blacked out in the court document — to ensure the success of a business deal in that country, the affidavit said.
All but $10,000 was recovered on Aug. 3 when the FBI searched Jefferson’s home in Washington. The money was stuffed in his freezer, wrapped in $10,000 packs and concealed in food containers and aluminum foil…
Since Richard Pope and other wingnut fellow travelers were so upset that a liberal blog reported that Rove had been indicted when he wasn’t (a story that the left blogs mostly laid off on, see: http://americablog.blogspot.co.....beral.html or http://www.salon.com/politics/.....index.html), I’m sure they will be calling for the retraction of Drudge’s false report on the New Orleans mayoral race.
I’m also sure that Mr. Pope will call on Mr. Sharansky to withdraw his twisted “20% error rate” story which in fact shows no such thing.
I’m glad that Richard will be fair and balanced on these things.
Oh, and I want to once again want to thank Richard for bringing to our attention Darcy Burner’s straight As at the University of Washington Law School. It is people like Mr. Pope that make the Washington GOP the proud organization it is.
JDB (and Michael)
Good point about the Fox results. Yep…polls will bounce around–sometimes from “noise” (i.e. sampling error), and sometimes from genuine change in approval. Sometimes, however, the “genuine change” is too small to be distinguished from the noise in the short run.
Case in point. Today, the American Research Group released results of a Bush approval poll.
In this poll (from a phone survey conducted from May 18-21 on 1,100 adults), Bush has, apparently, slipped from 34% one month ago to 32% during the survey dates this month—which, Michael, happens to be after Bush’s immigration speech.
The margin of error is 3%. Obviously, these results do not support the hypothesis that “Bush’s approval ratings are rising.” But, by the same token, there is no statistical support for the hypothesis that “Bush’s approval ratings have declined in the last month.” It might well just be luck of who they happened to randomly pick for the poll that the approval declined.
What we can support by statistical evidence from the results of this poll is that Bush’s approval has dropped roughly 10% in the last year.
2 reasons for the illegitimate queens supposed meteoric rise of 2 whole points: she stays in hiding most of the time and when she does pop her grinch face out it’s to cozy up to the commies leaders that play so well to the lefty nirvana of Seattle.
@58 Hmm. Rasmussen, Fox, and CBS constitutes multiple in my book. Perhaps you should brush up on your own reading skills. For example, the Rasmussen poll:
May 18 – 36
May 19 – 37
May 20 – 39
May 21 – 39
May 22 – 40
That, my friend, is a trend.
@61 I guess now we know why he risked life and limb, diverting a helicopter and two large National Guard trucks from the Katrina recovery “to check on his property and rescue his personal belongings — even while New Orleans residents were trying to get rescued from rooftops.”
http://abcnews.go.com/US/Hurri.....038;page=1
But I thought Bush was responsible for all the problems with the Katrina recovery operation?
Michael @ 65
“Hmm. Rasmussen, Fox, and CBS constitutes multiple in my book. Perhaps you should brush up on your own reading skills. For example, the Rasmussen poll:”
Sure…we can pick and chose our polls and get lots of interesting trends. How ’bout if we pick ’em to make a “speed bump”?:
May 18 – 36
May 19 – 37
May 20 – 39
May 21 – 39
May 22 – 32 link
Gooooood Morning Evilfuckingchristianistbitch!
Hey…how did your homophobic hate-fest go in CHURC Sunday morning.
You guys all filled with “Christian Love” after you got done condemning some moer of God’s kids?
Feel GOOD about yerself do ya’.
Bully for you.
Turkey basters all around. Oh! Great idea! I’ll invent a DRINK called a “Turkey Baster” and dedicate it to you. The Krazy Kompassionate Konservative.
You hateful crone.
66, William Jefferson, DEMOCRAT, LA [note the Democrat “progressive” libs will not comment] !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
William [MoFo] Jefferson, DEMOCRAT, LA [hehe]
William [Cold Cash] Jefferson, DEMOCRAT, LA [hehe]
William [“IceBox”] Jefferson, DEMOCRAT, LA [hehe]
Ten percent of Mexicans now live in the United States.
Fifteen percent of the Mexican workforce lives in the U.S.
One in every 7 Mexican workers “migrates” to the U.S.
Mexicans make up 56% of what the Chronicle refers to as the “unauthorized U.S. migrant population.” I’ll translate: Mexicans make up 56% of illegal aliens in the U.S.
There are some Mexican communities that have almost no workers left. They’ve gone to the U.S.
Mexicans in the U.S. send about $20 billion a year back to their homes in Mexico. This amount exceeds Mexico’s income from all oil exports and is much higher than Mexico’s revenue from tourism.
The $20 billion that Mexicans send back home exceeds the entire foreign aid budget of the United States.
In five Mexican states the money sent home by those who have invaded the United States exceeds total locally generated income.
Sounds like a rather successful illegal alien invasion, don’t you think?
@67 You are trying to compare one poll’s results to another, not a trend of the same poll over time. Your method doesn’t hold water scientifically.
I wasn’t “picking and choosing” polls. CBS, probably the most liberal major network, has not only a poll but a whole story on the bump Bush got from his speech last Monday. There is none so blind as he who will not see.
I love a little symmetry in life.
This thread started with an unsourced Drudge smear, and here we are, a few hours later, and we’ve got another one:
http://thinkprogress.org/2006/.....ears-gore/
Michael:
You are of course welcome to celebrate the fact that Bush’s public approval rating may finally have hit rock bottom, where the only way to go is up. The man’s approval rating had to stop dropping eventually. He can always count on support of the “Will Baker” republicans, the ones who would support Bush under any circumstances. Rasmussen has a consistent 4 to 5% GOP slant. Any way you look at it, Bush is in Jimmy Carter territory. I don’t think an immigration plan that his major base of support detests is going to bring Bush back from the mid 30’s in the long term, especially while gas is over $3.00 a gallon and American soldiers are dying in Iraq.
Michael @ 74
“@67 You are trying to compare one poll’s results to another, not a trend of the same poll over time. Your method doesn’t hold water scientifically.”
Indeed…you are correct mixing numbers from different polls. I was teasing you about the idiocy of your statement that the numbers you picked formed a “trend” and reduced it to an absurdity.
Seriously… look what happens if you go back a few days prior to the start of your “trend” in the Rasmussen Polls (i.e. pick and choose):
May 11 – 39%
May 12 – 40%
May 13 – 39%
May 14 – 40%
May 16 – 39%
May 17 – 38%
May 18 – 36%
May 19 – 37%
May 20 – 39%
May 21 – 39%
May 22 – 40%
Your “trend” looks more like a pot hole on Bush’s ride to the bottom. (It probably reflects ordinary sampling error mixed with micro-changes in approval.)
Bouncing around in one poll a few percentage points over a couple of week is pretty meaningless. What are the larger trends?
May 06 Probably something under 40%
Apr 06 40%
Mar 06 41%
Feb 06 45%
Jan 06 44%
Nov 05 43%
Oct 05 43%
Sep 05 46%
Aug 05 46%
Jul 05 49%
Jun 05 48%
May 05 48%
Apr 05 48%
Mar 05 50%
Feb 05 51%
(Why did I claim “probably something under 40%?,” because that is what the evidence suggests: 8 of 11 May polls on the Rasmussen web site are under 40% and the other three are right at 40%. It could change, but it is unlikely.)
BTW: I ignored the CBS story. It is directly contradicted by Rasmussen’s analysis. I’ll not take CBS’s or Rasmussen’s side—I don’t give a rats ass whether Bush experiences a bounce from a national address. I don’t have a dog in that fight; transient changes for the better or the worse are irrelevant to me.
But…go ahead, cling to every little scrap of positive news you can find, ignore supportable trends, and make up whatever story you want over acute, possibly transient, changes in Bush’s approval numbers. Whatever it takes to make you feel better, dude….
No wonder his numbers are in the tank. He’s a fucking moron.
From ThinkProgress again (thanks ATJ, I forgot to go there this AM):
“President Bush was asked this morning whether he will watch Al Gore’s new movie on global warming, An Inconvenient Truth. “Doubt it,” the president answered. He went on to argue that we need to “set aside whether or not greenhouse gases have been caused by mankind or because of natural effects.””
http://thinkprogress.org/2006/.....ore-movie/
@76 BTW: I ignored the CBS story.
Yeah, don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story.
Wayne@76 Yes, these sorts of posts could be taken as signs of desperation. . . “Any way you look at it, Bush is in Jimmy Carter territory. I don’t think an immigration plan that his major base of support detests is going to bring Bush back from the mid 30’s in the long term, especially while gas is over $3.00 a gallon and American soldiers are dying in Iraq.” You more than highlight the reasons why the wingnust will cling to every little drop of hope. . . in vain.
Just wanted to remind you righties that your God Lush Flimbaugh is getting another probation officer – supervised piss test in the morning!
Michael,
“Yeah, don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story.”
Oh…pooolease. I am not sure if you are willfully misreading what I said or whether you are just too stupid to understand what I said. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume the latter.
I already pointed out that:
(1) the CBS story was contradicted by Rasmussen (i.e. the CBS results are not definitive, but then neither are Rasmussen’s results).
(2) I am completely neutral to whether or not Bush got a transient bump in approval from his national address (as presidents almost always do get–but the bumps typically dissapate pretty quickly). I’ve not made claims either way, and it is not relevant to any of the points I was arguing here.
What-sa matter Wingnut Michael? Can’t argue on the merits? Are you left to simply making up shit to criticize me over?
@82 My contention was that Rasmussen, CBS, and Fox all disagree with Goldy’s claim that “President Bush’s support continues to go down.” You even admit that your own data and argument have nothing to do with this. So what was your point again?
Michael @ 83
“My contention was that Rasmussen, CBS, and Fox all disagree with Goldy’s claim that “President Bush’s support continues to go down. You even admit that your own data and argument have nothing to do with this. So what was your point again?”
My original comment to you was to dispute, on statistical grounds, your claim “Bush’s poll numbers are rising.”
To quote (@ 25): “The numbers you point to show no statistical evidence that Bush’s number are rising. (The “rise” is within the sampling error.) The only trend with statistical support is a long term decline in approval since Feb 05.”
Michael:
ABC/Washington Post are at a new low last week. Newsweek was at a new low last week. CNN was at a new low last week. USA Today/Gallup was at a new low last week. Rasmussen was at a new low last week. Since Bush hasn’t killed any puppy’s this week, there may be some slight movememnt in some polls up, but at this point it is hard for Bush to go much lower (Nixon resigned at these levels). What little movement you seem happy with are within margins of error so, as dj pointed out, all that matters is the trend line, and the trend line is very negative still. Here is a good summary (by people on the right) of all polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
But, hey, ask yourself, if you are so happy about Bush being at 38% instead of 33% percent, doesn’t that prove things are pretty bad to begin with?
The “rise” is within the sampling error
That didn’t prevent MSN from running the story 6 times between February and April that Bush’s approval rating had reached a new low, although the actual rating cited in each of the 6 stories was 36%.
C’mon Michael admit it!
You voted for Will Baker.
Michael @ 86
“That didn’t prevent MSN from running the story 6 times between February and April that Bush’s approval rating had reached a new low, although the actual rating cited in each of the 6 stories was 36%.”
Not having seen the particular articles you refer to, I can only speculate and offer my sympathy for your point.
I suspect what happened is that the a new low was recorded for Bush in six different polls. The media does have something of an obsession in that each time a lower (or higher) threshold is crossed, it gets reported as some new landmark, whether or not the number is “real” (i.e. supported statistically).
What these polls really provide us with is a distribution of approvals. This is because the numbers are derived from a small sample of all possible voters. Therefore, no single number represents the “truth” about the approvals found by the survey. The “point estimate” commonly given by the media is the mean or median of the distribution of approvals, and does not tell the whole story.
I do like the analysis by Prof. Polkatz (middle column) where he takes a weighted average of the major polls over the last two weeks. Polls are weighted by the sample size of the poll and are discounted by the age of the poll according to a negative exponential distribution (newest polls contribute heavily, older polls contribute only a little bit of information to the estimate). Polkatz provides numbers to describe the entire distribution of approvals.
So, he updated the estimates today (the figure is updated, too) using polls published through yesterday.
The results: imagine an approximately normal distribution centered on 33.4% but with spread such that 95% of the mass falls between 31.2% and 35.5%. The table allows us to state with pretty good certainty that Bush’s approval has declined since Feb 28. But, statements about increases or decreases in the points in between are largely unsupported.
I see, so rising poll numbers means “margin of error,” while dropping poll numbers is newsworthy ever single time a different poll crossing an arbitrary threshold. And they say there is a bias in media :)
I think William Jefferson, DEMOCRAT, LA, should be on the 2008 Democrat ticket with Cindi McKinney. Both represent the best of the Democrat Party. [hehe] JCH
Michael @ 89
“I see, so rising poll numbers means “margin of error,” while dropping poll numbers is newsworthy ever single time a different poll crossing an arbitrary threshold. And they say there is a bias in media.
Oh, come on, Michael…break out of wingnuttery mode. As I mentioned, the press does it both for record low ratings and record high ratings.
36% isn’t a record in April when it was 36% in January. It isn’t even news.
Michael:
Do you just ignore what has been written in response to your talking points? Or do you just like being wrong.
36% in April in the Rasmussen poll is a record when that poll has never had Bush below 40% until April. It is not a record in the Fox poll which has had Bush lower. However, the new story goes out every time Bush has a new low in a new poll, just as they once went out when he had a new high.
Again, what matters is the trend line and the average of all polls. In that case, Bush continues to trend down. However, in the high 20s- mid 30s, there really isn’t that much more room for him to sink, so you would expect the polls now to kind of hover in that range. Unless Bush starts killing kittens, there will always be about 25% of the population which will support him.
Again, if you are really happy of Bush “bouncing back” to 36% approval, good for you. But that really does show how desperate you are for anything positive to say about Bush. It’s like being happy that he hasn’t started another war. Doesn’t really make up for the one he did start.