What with our lack of both party ID and a statistically useful track record with the top-two format, the only thing we really learned from yesterday’s primary election was who made it through to the November general. But since I’m one of those bullshit pundits of sorts, who folks come to the morning after for bullshit punditry, I’ll do my best to oblige.
U.S. Senate race surprises analysts by producing no surprises
Had either Democratic incumbent Sen. Patty Murray or her Republican real estate speculator challenger Dino Rossi scored five or more points higher or lower than either one did, it might really tell us something about what to expect in November. But at roughly 46-34 in a 15 person race… not so much.
Would Murray have liked to have topped 50 percent? Sure. Would Rossi have liked to have garnered at least half the number of raw votes he tallied in his 2008 gubernatorial primary? You betcha. Both numbers will rise as the ballots are tallied and the big counties catch up with the rest of the state, but neither really tells us anything we didn’t already know heading into Tuesday.
Coffee-swilling Washingtonians brew weak tea
For all the huff and puff of our state’s teabaggers, they sure as hell didn’t blow my house down with their candidates’ performance in Tuesday’s primary. Clint Didier looks like he’ll break double digits in the final tally, but with all the Palin winks and free press he got, that’s not saying much. And while he did well in Benton and Franklin counties, there just aren’t that many people there, while he couldn’t even carry his home county of Kittitas.
Meanwhile down in WA-03, teabagger favorite David Castillo, who many had predicted to shock establishment GOPers by sneaking into the top-two, looks to finish a disappointing fourth behind two other Republicans. I mean, what’s up with that?
Let’s just say, except for the comparable size of our respectively immense, illicit pot-growing industries, Washington is no Kentucky.
Our regions voters are out of touch with the Seattle Times editorial board
In a bold and surprising move, the Seattle Times endorsed Democrats Suzan DelBene and Tim Dillon in the WA-08 primary, abandoning former ed board heart throb, Republican Rep. Dave Reichert. And while absolutely nobody is surprised to see Reichert and DelBene face off in November — they were the only serious candidates in the race from an organizational and fundraising perspective — it was kinda amusing to see Dillon come in fifth, behind some guy named Tom Cramer and the very, very, crazy teabagger, Ernest Huber.
What were voters thinking to diss a candidate the Times lauded as… um… not as unstudied or unacceptable as Reichert?
Or, I guess the real question is, if they believe Reichert is so undeserving of reelection, why didn’t the Times just give their sole endorsement to DelBene, who they surely knew would be his November opponent? Huh.
Roaches check in but they don’t check out?
A collective groan arose from the state’s political press corps last night, as early results suggested that gun-toting, flower-speechifying, blog-foddering Republican State Sen. Pam Roach may actually find herself in serious trouble this November. It’s not just that she only scored 40% of the vote, but that it looks like her top-two opponent is going to be a fellow Republican. Ouch.
Olympia without Pam Roach would be like the Asylum of Charenton without the Marquis de Sade. (Or some other, less literary analogy.) Say it ain’t so!
Meanwhile, a bit of irony elsewhere in the 31st LD, where Roach’s son, State Rep. Dan Roach, and Pierce County Councilman Shawn Bunney had a gentleman’s agreement to swap offices. (Word is that, underpaid at his wife’s gym, Roach needed the money that comes with the more lucrative council seat, while Bunney, apparently having never visited the place, longed for the glamor and excitement of the State House.) Well, the best laid plans and all that, because Bunney currently finds himself in third place, behind fellow Republican Cathy Dahlquist and fellow Democrat Peggy Levesque.
However, should Bunney manage to hop Levesque in the final tally, 31st LD voters won’t see any Democrats in any of their three legislative races in November. (And no, I haven’t forgotten about Rep. Chris Hurst.)
I found it quite interesting that in many legislative races there were unopposed candidates. Should we deduce from that an pro-incumbency sentiment is sweeping the state?
Another big loser last night: third party candidates. But we knew that the “Top Two” system would always produce that kind of result. Sometimes voters are just too smart for their own good I guess.
Copacetic about Delbene?
Goldy,
Last night you tried to tell me that Delbene’s performance was OK because she has not yet spent money. WADR, I think you are .. again .. being a Pollyanna on the Race Against Reichert.
Suzan Delbene is making the same effort Darcy Burner made … failing to promote herself as a LOCAL candidate.
Especially after the Times non-endorsement, I suspect very few people look up to Reichert as a major national leader. He gets elected because he is (was) the local guy, the sherif from King Co.
So far SD seems more like a carpetbagger. Since she began her campaign, I have yet to hear her take stand on any local issues.
It is not as if there are not many issues of special interest to the Eastide. As you know, I have tried to get Darcy to focus on support for the UW, a very popular local issue. Other local issues .. Boeing, high tech immigrants, and even the Muslim hatred of the right … where has Delbene been on any of these?”
I would love to see her work at an even more local level. For example, as a Democrat, she could do herself a lot of good by leading the
fight against McKenna’s abuse of his position.
I worry that Reichert will hire someone who can spell “carpetbagger.”
From the hinterlands:
35th (Mason-South Kitsap-North Thurston) Ds appear safe. Kathy Haigh is @~52%, Fred Finn who had two challengers (an R and a self id’d I) is @~48%.
I was worried about Haigh, who has been as progressive as you can practically be in this swing district and was up against a teabagger who appears in ads with his bunker gear on (a fireman. He’ll be crushed in the general.
Finn, a 1st termer, took some conservative positions (e.g., voted against suspension of I-960) and has base issues, but appears likely to prevail.
Sadly, The Other Timmeh! polled @61% despite a write in D (Justin Stang). In debates, the R (self id’d as “Grandma” Nancy) fawned and gushed over Sheldon. This is typical R behavior when the Rs even bother to put up a candidate as Tim’s their guy (he held a chair position the last time the Rs held the Senate).
The largest county in which Rossi got more votes than Murray was Yakima, followed by Chelan. It will be bleak November for Dino.
Roger Rabbit, if you’re reading this, please check your email!
Nice to see that Shawn Bunny will no longer be in public office. Bunny really is a cretin.
With regards to Reichert, the DelBene campaign has suggested his below 50% count shows he is vulnerable. Well we know he is vulnerable – he always will be – but he’s also never received above 50% of the votes in a primary, so that’s not a portent of impending doom for him.
More significant for DelBene are her own numbers, which are Heidi Berens Benedict low. She enters the fall campaign as a huge underdog. Can she close the gap? Probably, but it will take a massive effort of constant campaigning to do it. We’ll see if she’s up to the challenge.
I think Denny Heck is looking pretty good in the 3rd. He’s going to have a real race on his hands but he did well in both Clark and Thurston County.
Since the GOP had a real primary race on their side in several races I expect the turnout will likely be a bit more even in November.
@3 “Kathy Haigh is @~52%”
She’s also a local veterinarian and I have a ton of respect for her for what she’s done for me and my pets. I was in a pinch a couple of winters ago and she somehow made it to my place in the deep snow to put my very ill cat down.
The thought of having to endure Dino the Dim’s presence all over the airwaves for the next 11 weeks is numbing. How anyone could be impressed with such an empty suit is bewildering.
Wow, 2 1/2 million people in the state who make over $200,000 will suffer grievously from those reinstituted high income taxes. Only one small problem with this idea. There are only a bit over 100,000 families in the entire state who are listed as netting over $200,000 per year. A little math shows that Rossi is exaggerating by a factor of a bit less than 25 X. Hey, he never said he was honest Dino.
leftist
Better get used to it you are going to have to endure Dino for the net 6 years.
@ Goldy
I think Didier is from Connell which is in Franklin County.
I think Joel’s been drinking too much tea…
Oops hit submit on accident…
Yeah sure, but in order to do that you have to not lose big in Western Washington and actually win big in Eastern WA and Murray has shown in the past that she polls well in all the populous counties around the state and has done it again in this election. Murray’s currently leading in 20 counties. And she’s winning big in the Puget Sound Basin.
It’s not likely that this is going to be a close election.
Actually, Michael, Joel might be right.
Which is to say that this year’s margin might very well be less than 12.2% (Murray over Nethercutt, 2004) and 16.9% (Cantwell over McGavick!, 2006).
Which isn’t to say that it will be, in any sense of the word, close, which is what Joel wants us to infer. I’m predicting a double-figures margin, but can’t really say where in double-figues it’ll be.
Here’s another sad result from last night: this primary was actually a general election for WA Supreme Court Justice Position 1.
That’s probably terribly misunderstood by the electorate who would certainly cry foul if the primary results determined the non-judiciary positions, but seemingly that’s not a problem for a Supreme Court seat?
@16
LOL… I hadn’t thought about it like that.
Regarding the Murray/Rossi race, I think we need to wait until all of King County is counted before declaring Rossi’s chances. Murray’s numbers are likely to climb from her current 46% while Rossi’s will dip from his 34%.
@14m 15, and 16: I actually kind of feel sorry for Joel and his struggle to remain relevant. It’s got to suck that more people read Goldy and care about his take than His Corpulence now that they’re both “just” bloggers.
@12
Good luck with that.
Another racist wingnut bites the dust:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....706418.htm
Heck and DelBene look like write-offs, Larsen is in deep shit, and Murray can be mildly encouraged (subject to trends in later counts, and the D’s-for-Didier factor others have mentioned above) but still in a toss-up.
What we learned from yesterday’s primary election is that fringe candidates like Didier and Akers are fringe candidates.
@23
Well, you got the Delbene part right anyway.
967,642 ballots have been counted, there’s 237,908 outstanding ballots and most of those outstanding ballots are in places that Murray is winning handily (Rossi’s up in Columbia County, but their 150 ballots left to count aren’t going to change much). Things are pretty settled.
@24, Roger: Did you check your email?
@22: Nothing at link (story deleted / can’t find message)
@26 I’d better ask Goldy which one he sent you. One of them is blocked.
@26 (continued) The one he sent you works, but I don’t have incoming. AOL Mail is fucked up, sometimes stuff simply disappears. Better resend. Put “rabbit” in the subject line.
@26 (again) Check that, I found it. AOL dumped it into spam, but I’ve got it now.
Michael @25:
Actually, there are many more ballots outstanding. The SoS site shows only the number received (but not necessarily counted) as of the most recent update.
In King County, the counted (as of last night) ballots constitute about 23% of the electorate. Another 5% were somewhere in the system but not yet counted. However, King County Elections estimated (last Friday) that turnout would reach 45% when it’s all over.
In other words, the King County counts we’re seeing as we await today’s update are only about half of the final tally.
Time to follow the polls..starting with Harry “Skeletor” Reid who just turned his back on ObaMao about the Hamasque in NYC–
Harry needs lots of help-
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Shorter Mr.
IrrelevantPredictableCynical:Look away! Change the subject! Ignore reality!
@31
Ah yes, they’ve still got a couple of days to make their way though the postal system, don’t they. Thanks.
@32
If the people of the great state of Nevada want to shoot themselves in the foot by sending a powerless, do nothing, to the senate, that’s fine by me. ;-)
@2
DelBane’s been pretty much ignored by the local media to date, except for the surprising Seattle Times endorsement. She doesn’t have name recognition. If she can get some good coverage, combined with raising and spending money, then she’s got a decent chance this time around.
But raising money is going to be a problem with the low primary numbers. She’ll need some polling which shows she’s rising fast in the polls, and she hasn’t got much time to do that.
It will be interesting if the Seattle Times continues to cover the story over the next week, as more ballots are counted. I’m thinking that by Friday this story will be on page six, below the fold, even if it shows Murray winning with over 54%. But by then Dori Monson and other such hosts will keep repeating the mantra that she didn’t break 50% and therefore will lose, and Seattle Times readers will remember today’s headlines, not the later updates.
That Reichert race is sure close, I’m almost ready to join you at drinking liberally to wathc the tears. Gonna be a bad night for the Libs.