An Elway poll taken last week and released today has some not-so-bad and some not-so-good news for Rob McKenna (via Publicola).
But first the not-so-bad news for McKenna. The poll didn’t really do a typical head-to-head between Jay Inslee and McKenna. Rather, they took a smorgasbord approach (rotating the order of answers, of course):
Several candidates may run for Governor next year. As things stand today, whom would you support if the candidates were:
- Republican Rob McKenna
- Republican Bill Bryant
- Republican Clint Didier
- Democrat Dow Constantine
- Democrat Lisa Brown
- Democrat Aaron Reardon
- Democrat Jay Inslee
- Democrat Brian Sonntag
The not-so-bad part for McKenna is that he took 20% to Inslee’s 17%. But with five Dems to three G.O.P. names on the list, and about half the respondents offering no opinion, the question does little beyond assessing the potential viability of any candidates besides Inslee and McKenna.
(The answer: none shows any potential. Still, Mr. Didier, don’t let numbers and reality stand between you and the Governor’s mansion!)
The not-so-good news for McKenna came from another question:
Asked which type of candidate they were most likely
to support, 48% said a Democrat and 36% said a
Republican. More specifically:
- 22% said a “liberal Democrat”
- 26% said a “moderate Democrat”
- 16% said a “moderate Republican” and
- 20% said a “conservative Republican.
McKenna has spent years cultivating his image as a moderate Republican. He has shown remarkable discipline doing so.
But it was a single decision to “go rogue” in joining a lawsuit against the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act—action he took against the wishes of the Governor and the legislature—that will prevent him from gaining the support of independents and moderate Democrats.
So, the not-so-good news is less good than the not-so-bad new, which isn’t really so good anyway.
The burden is on Inslee and the state Dem party to paint McKenna as the kind of politician McKenna really is.
@1 They don’t have to. Just hand the paintbrush to McKenna and he’ll do it himself.
Seriously, no GOPer can get elected to anything without pandering to the Crazy Mob, and that’s what McKenna has to do. Which is another way of saying the GOP base has made all GOP politicians unelectable.
Didier thought he could win a spot on the ballot by relying only on rural Washington voters as his base. I turns out that his base was only a fraction of rural Washington voters, which was only a very small fractin of the total Washington voters.
McKenna is going to try it from the other direction. He’s taking it for granted that he can get the rural votes from Eastern Washington, and hopes he can bleed off enough votes from the urban Puget Sound region by appearing nerdy enough to be a corporate lawyer with moderate Republican leanings.
The problem is that he either self-destructs in that effort, or he is convincing enough to make it a really close race. We can’t do that much to make it apparant, because the more we jump up and down and argue that he’s really a rabid wingnut, the more he can chuckle, take a few interviews where he appears to be the reasonable one, and then make us appear to be the unreasonable ones.
His only mis-step, so far, was joining the lawsuit against the health care reform. I’m guessing he did that because a year ago he wasn’t so secure in his chances, and this was the price he was going to have to pay to get funding from outside sources and to keep the Tea Party from sitting out his campaign.
But now, with his polling showing no other significant threats to making it to the top-two ballot, he really doesn’t have to do anything else to keep the support of the Tea Party. If he keeps his mouth shut, he’s got his best chance of making it a tight race.
One wild card is the lawsuit which is trying to overturn the health care reforms. It is possible that at least one case could be accepted for consideration by the U.S. Supreme Court in time for the next term, beginning in October and with the last decisions issued in June 2012.
If the U.S. Supreme Court follows long-established precedent going back to the 1930’s and rejects the challenges, then he’s going to look pretty stupid, especially after wasting taxpayer money in pursing the case against the wishes of the Governor, the Legislature, and most of the Washington public.
But all members of the five-man conservative majority on the court decides to ignore precedent and give the Republicans some political points by overturning the law, then that could go either way. Either it could look like McKenna was right all along, boosting his appeal among some voters, or Washington voters could reject him wholesale for helping to kill their benefits under the bill.
There is no longer any such thing as a “moderate Republican”. Today’s Republican politician panders to a lunatic base while serving his corporatist master. Paint McKenna as a right-wing extremist who stands with the likes of Walker and as someone who will eagerly do to Washington what Walker has done to Wisconsin. The fed budget affects our state and citizens. Where does he stand on the wingnut plan to dismantle Social Security, Medicare and Medicade? The world is black and white to the Republican base. There is no nuance. He either stands with the the krazies all the way or he’s no Republican. Paint him into a corner until he either admits to what his agenda really is, or at least make him deny that agenda three times in front of us and his loony, teabagging base.
I guess one thing we could do is to push him on his position on unions. Does he support GOP attempts to get rid of employee’s rights to collective bargaining? How will he fight against the GOP push to squash the NLRB’s case against Boeing’s opening of the S. Carolina plant? That would really put him between a rock and a hard place, because he can’t alianate his Republican masters, yet he can’t afford to lose any votes among union members and their families throughout the Puget Sound region.
I think those are reasonable assumptions, rhp.
Not everyone who is in a union is pro-union. In a time when they couldn’t negotiate for no pay cuts, they also raised their dues to members, so I hear some grumbling amongst those members. And the WFSE has gone all mafioso in going after new bargaining units which doesn’t sit well with other employees sucked in unwillingly. So depending on how bitter union members are, they might not really be a shoe in for the dems. On the other hand, no state employee enjoys simultaneously being asked to do even more, with less, and then blamed for increases in state costs.
If the dems are smart (and that isn’t always a guarantee) playing his tape blaming state employees will get traction as will reminding voters that he wanted all of us to be left out in the cold regarding medical insurance.
If a reasonable, but wingy repub runs, then Rob will have to be more “conservative” to rope those ones in. And that will be fodder to expose him for what he is with the moderates.
I trust no one who was nurtured at the side of Slade Gorton.
Roger @2: Recall Dave Reichert’s much-vaunted sensible moderateness, which seemed to defy consideration of his conservative record and lack of fitness to govern.
Once the media decides you are conscience-driven, about the only thing you can do to lose this aura is to show up at a rally and be caught on camera bragging about how you pulled it over on everyone.
McKenna can’t claim to have looked a serial killer in the eyes, but he can go on TV whenever he likes and talk about preventing identity theft and busting child slave traders, or whatever.