For almost a year now I have been obsessively collecting state head-to-head polls for the 2008 presidential election, and analyzing the recent polls via a Monte Carlo analysis. Once a day, on days when new polls are released, I’ve published an analysis designed to address the question, “who would win if the election was held today?”
I’m going to start posting the meat of the (nearly daily) results at Horses Ass. You can always check out the full results at Hominid Views.
Think of this as a score-board for the election through the final quarter of the game.
If you want more details on the methods used to analyze the polls, rules for accepting polls, etc., check out the simulation FAQ.
|100.0% probability of winning||0.0% probability of winning|
|Mean of 363 electoral votes||Mean of 175 electoral votes|
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times. In an election held today, Obama would receive (on average) 363 to McCain’s 175 electoral votes.
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.