For almost a year now I have been obsessively collecting state head-to-head polls for the 2008 presidential election, and analyzing the recent polls via a Monte Carlo analysis. Once a day, on days when new polls are released, I’ve published an analysis designed to address the question, “who would win if the election was held today?”
I’m going to start posting the meat of the (nearly daily) results at Horses Ass. You can always check out the full results at Hominid Views.
Think of this as a score-board for the election through the final quarter of the game.
If you want more details on the methods used to analyze the polls, rules for accepting polls, etc., check out the simulation FAQ.
| Obama | McCain |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 363 electoral votes | Mean of 175 electoral votes |
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times. In an election held today, Obama would receive (on average) 363 to McCain’s 175 electoral votes.
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.
Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.
I think your header/notation of 0.0 % probability of McCain win (175 electoral votes) speaks for itself and your bias witin your analysis. The saying there are lies, damn lies and statistics doesn’t come from nowhere….:-) However, your “typo” is very telling
Dutch,
Nope…there is no bias built into the analysis. The current “score” follows from a very straight-forward analysis of the current polls. In fact, there have been plenty of times in the past 1/2 year when McCain has held the lead over Obama, like here. I’ve dutifully reported the results as they come—whether Obama or McCain is in the lead.
Tx Darryl, Goldy
This adds a lot to the HA experience.
However, in the spirit of full disclosure ….
Before making any investments based on Darryl’s findings, you may want to know that he has a gustatory and financial interest in the results in one state, Texas. DL’s favorite long haired UW Professor (I have almost know hair left up there) have abet on the outcome in Texas. Naturally, given Darryl’s wel known dating of a Babes for Bus radical in the 80s, he has taken the position that Obama will lose Texas.
Be aware, they are everywhere.
I, for one, will welcome our new adult leaders.
Being a republican is not a crime, just as being a self abusing, glue sniffer is not a crime.
But in the end, they both are horrifically irresponsible.
And brain damaged.
From George Will in todays WaPo:
I am just sayin’…..
You can read the whole piece here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....038;sub=AR
Sounds like McCain doesn’t have a prayer. Good.
Fivethirtyeight is predicting 346EV for Obama and 191 for McSame.
Today’s required reading:
“The Willie Hortonization of Barack Obama”
seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2008242902_camphorton09.html
PLEASE
I hope folks do not relax contributions and efforts. Persoanlly I doubled my monthly contribution and have begun making calls (using the tools at obama’s site) to places I think I can be useful ..Fla, Penn, VA, NC. I am also, whenever I talk to friends in those states, urging them to talk to others as well.
As with any model: GIGO.
Now if we can get past the republican voter suppression, voter fraud, and the dibold hacking, we can have a fair election.
I am dead serious here:
I am terrified that the race factor will be stronger than ever. The Bradley Effect.
Senator Obama needs a cushion of 10% or 12%–this is only my guess, of course. There are millions of good Republicans who wouldn’t vote for Jesus or Mohammed or Buddha if the skin was too damn dark.
We must stop Obama.
If he steals this election we could never say anything negative about him without being called a racist.
He will take away the first amendment. (As his campaign shows us today)
He will in act laws to take our guns.
He will under special orders implement The Fairness Doctrine.
He will install Anti-Americans in his cabinet.
He will force all public schools to teach our kids what he wants them to know.
Anyone @ 13: I guess “anyone” can make stuff up and post it about a candidate he doesn’t like. Otherwise, your post isn’t even worth responding to.
I wonder what tricks Karl Rove has in his bag for an “October Surprise”? Seems to me he’s used up most of them, to no effect. They just don’t have the power they once had – it seems most of the electorate has gotten wise to how he attempts to use fear to manipulate us.
Seems to me the only way they can pull this one out, this late in the game, is to pull a major stunt involving both the White House and the McCain camp acting in concert with one another. You know, create a national security crisis in which McCain is invited to play a leading role in resolving the matter, and being sure to leave Obama & the Democrats on the sidelines with no role to play.
What’s really scary about that possibility is that considering the White House’s bumbling of foreign affairs up to this point, they could really get us into a major war in the process.
The REALLY nightmare scenario is U.S. soldiers in (former Soviet) Georgia facing off against Russian troops over the breakaway provences. Any general worth his salt would tell the President that’s a no-win situation for the U.S., as we can’t logistically sustain a significant presence there so close to the Russian borders. But during the buildup to the Iraq War, Bush & Rumsfield went through the Pentagon getting rid of any generals who dared to question the military aspects of the Bush plan, so I’m not sure how many generals we have left there with enough gravitas to stand up to the Bush administration on this issue.
Obama will install his wife as the head of education for our children.
Soros will run treasury.
Louis Farrakhan will be the A.G. of USA!
Maxine Waters will take control of the Oil industry.
Goldie will be in charge of the press corps.
So what’s your guess? Knowing that Rove & the current Republican “base” have a history of never conceeding an election, what will they do between now and then, that they haven’t already done, to change the subject?
@1 I don’t doubt for a second that you koolaid drinkers still think your guy is ahead by 500 electoral votes. What’s hilarious about this is that you guys don’t even like McCain!
1, 2 The bias is in the polls, which undercount youthful voters, who are more likely to vote for Obama. Why? Because polls are conducted by telephone, and most young people don’t have landlines, so this key demographic is underrepresented in the polls. Don’t be surprised if some of those pink states turn out not to be as red as they look on the map. A strong youth turnout could propel Obama to well over 400 electoral votes.
@10 “As with any model: GIGO.”
That’s certainly an apt description of your “education.”
@17 I see in today’s news that illegal voter purges are occurring in Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina. Funny how all of those states are key swing states. Looks like the Repugs are up to their old tricks. I predict it won’t be enough — a blue wall of voter anger is coming straight at the Repugs and they’re trying to bail with a bucket! ha ha ha ha ha
@16 Don’t worry, Obama has a job for you, too — cleaning out the horse stalls at the Enumclaw sex farm!
HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR
Down’s down slightly at 10:30 a.m. by 93 points. What it does the rest of the day is anybody’s guess. We used to think a 93 point rise or fall within a few hours was significant, but after the past few weeks it takes a 350+ point swing to get our attention.
Meanwhile, a DJIA at 9,164.68 (as of 10:30 a.m. PDT) is a bit scary. We blew right through the 10,000 level, and we might just waive at the 9,000 level as we pass it on the way down. Some wags on the radio this morning were saying we shouldn’t start buying until the DJIA hits 8,000, but I sure hope the floor is a lot higher than that.
What’s amazing to me is that with all the rate cuts, cash infusions, bailout plans over the past three weeks, the best that Wall Street can hope for is have a modest decline of less than 100 points a day, instead of a free-fall?
In the meantime:
AIG is going to get ANOTHER $ 30 Billion cash infusion from the Federal Government to keep it from collapsing,
One in six mortgages is “under water”.
Wingnuts @ 13 & 16 – I love the look of fear in their eyes as Election Day bears down on them!
One in six mortgages is “under water”. Really? Can you point me to a url?
@23 Getting my portfolio wiped out is a meager price to pay for wiping out the Republican Party, which I’ll pay gladly! Think of this meltdown as a very worthwhile investment in your (and our country’s) future!
In the meantime:
Lots of real estate agents, mortgage brokers, mortgage firms, closing agents, title companies, etc. are preparing their “fallback” careers.
Same for car dealerships. There was a temporary surge in sales this summer as people traded in their SUVs for hybrids or other higher-gas-milage cars, but that’s run it’s course and now lots of buyers can’t get any financing at all.
Banks are hit with a double-whammy. There isn’t that much cash available to lend, and customers are staying away because they don’t want to incur more debt when their jobs might be in jeapordy.
Non-surprise of the day: the NRA has endorsed McCain.
@25 If you read a newspaper once in a while, you would know that. But as you don’t, google it yourself, lazybones! He’s not your fucking research assistant.
I ask because I didn’t think One in six mortgages is “under water” would be a good set of keywords. Turns out it is.
Blue John @ 25: From yesterday afternoon’s news:
A rising tide of ‘underwater’ homeowners
Obama Surges To Double-Digit Lead
The latest Gallup poll shows Obama widening his nationwide lead to 11 points, 52% to 41%!
Hey wingnuts! Your boy McCain is more popular than cigaret smoke by 3 points!
I already lost my house. I know exactly what they mean.
It’s a recession if your neighbor loses his house,
It’s a depression if you do.
Obama will kill your babies and allow socialism to run wild.
We can’t not allow this to happen.
These lefties on this blog squirm when they read theses posts. Not responding is telling.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thebl.....-push.html
“American” @ 34 said “not responding is telling”.
We’re just following the advice I first heard some 40 years ago:
“Never get into a pissing match with a skunk”.
Your posts, appearing today under multiple screen names, are mindless drivel. Go back and do some study, and get beyond grade-school name-calling with allegations which you pull from your nether-regions. Then after a few years of such education, perhaps we can have a reasonable discussion.
RE: 9. SeattleJew:
The McCain Thugs are in Waukesha, Wisconsin today, spewing riot-rousing language and stirring the neocon monkeys into a frenzy in this battleground state.
Never underestimate the power of the hate-mongering, fear-intensifying, anti-democracy neocon propaganda and marketing machine. The country will be subjected to this shameless Mussolini-esque spew for another 4 weeks.
It has ruined countries before, and it still can ruin this one.
Fight it.
#34 Riiiiiiggghhhhht…….
Dang it Marge, the socialism has escaped the fence again and is eating the raspberries. Fetch my waffle lasso, I’m gonna round it up.
Makes about as much sense.
At almost 11:30 a.m. PDT, the DJIA is down 161.20, at 9,096.90. The 9,000 benchmark is clearly within sight.
Maybe Bush’s idea of destroying the Clinton legacy is to give back all the record gains in the market made during the Clinton administration? The DJIA is down 14.08% under the almost eight years of the Bush presidency.
I had resolved not to pay so much attention to the stock market every day. But it’s kind of like watching a train wreck – you want to turn away, but you feel compelled to keep watching.
What T. Boone Pickens Really Wants
Pickens wants to make U.S. transportation dependent on natural gas that he sells. The wind turbines displayed in his ads are simply a way to get there. An article by David Morris at AlterNet explains it:
” … [E]ven the more than casual reader might come away believing the Pickens Energy Plan was all about wind energy. … But expanding wind energy is not the key element in his plan. The … plan’s goal is to reduce our dependence on oil and the electric sector uses very little oil. Thus expanding wind-generated electricity does little to move us in that direction. Instead, the heart of Pickens’ plan is to … eliminate our use of natural gas to generate electricity and instead use it to in our vehicles.
“In California, Pickens has been more upfront about his intentions. [He] has single handedly financed a ballot initiative that would raise $3 billion for incentives for vehicles using cleaner fuels. The initiative heavily favors natural gas vehicles. … The primary beneficiary of this ballot initiative would be Clean Energy, the nation’s biggest supplier of natural gas for transportation needs. Mr. Pickens is majority shareholder of Clean Energy.
“The Pickens energy proposal has a fatal flaw. Transforming our transportation fleet to natural gas will require massive investments in new engines and new fueling systems. Although largely buried in the fine print, Pickens isn’t proposing to use natural gas to entirely replace transportation fuels derived from oil. His goal is a 20 percent replacement. So after 15-20 years and the expenditure of … billions of dollars we would then have a transportation system still 80 percent dependent on oil and 20 percent dependent on a fossil fuel whose life expectancy is not much longer than oil’s.
“A far better plan … is to electrify our transportation system. Instead of converting part of our transportation system to natural gas, … we should convert the transportation system to electricity, and make that electricity increasingly renewable as solar and wind power expand.”
(Quoted under fair use.)
Dave @ 37: I’m not surprised at the hate coming out of the McCain rallys lately. Only the base shows up at a campaign rally, and for the Republicans, the only base they have left are the ones who are filled with hate.
Why else would they vote for a party which has done so much damage to their country?
@38 Here out west, we understand socialism! Some years ago, the Rocky Mountain News estimated that federal subsidies for reclamation and irrigation projects in the western states averaged $2 million per farm and ranch in 1980s dollars — marginally productive farms and ranches that even with these massive subsidies produce less than 10% of America’s food supply. Did you know that 90% of America’s beef supply is raised east of the Mississippi River, and that Florida is the largest beef producing state? The only thing these western subsidies accomplish is perpetuate a 19th-century lifestyle for a small number of people who happen to constitute a powerful voting bloc in the western states.
@41 The Republican Party is the Militia Party — the whackos who run around in the woods with paintball guns.
I have my stupid hippy ACORN pals filing false voter regs all over the Nation!
The end justifies any means.
I heard something that I have not had time to check and it relates to an article that might have been in the WaPo or on their blog about McCain getting funds from the Albanian-American Civic league, or something of that nature and they apparently are related to the Kosovo Liberation Army. Y’all may wish to follow up.
TLG