Just got the latest signature verification numbers on Forward Seattle’s referendum, and it doesn’t look good for the anti-$15 minimum wage crowd:
Referendum No. 2 (Forward Seattle)
Number of signatures submitted 18,928 Number of signatures reviewed 8,389 Number of signatures verified 6,409
With about 44 percent of the signatures verified, that’s a validation rate of just 76.4 percent, far short of what’s necessary to produce the 16,510 valid signatures needed to qualify for the ballot. The first batch of 3,353 signatures validated at 75.5 percent rate, so at first glance the validation rate appears to be trending slightly in Forward Seattle’s favor. But some of this improvement is due to a small number of “signature miscompares” being rehabilitated under review from supervisors, and then folded back into the total, so it’s not really possible to entirely compare validation rates from one batch to another.
And in case you think there’s something fishy about such a low validation rate, think again:
As you can see, the bulk of the rejected signatures are from people who are either not registered to vote, or are registered outside of Seattle. There’s nothing subjective about that. Meanwhile, since the number of duplicate signatures tends to rise exponentially as the sample size increases (for obvious reasons), that number should jump to close to 200 by the time the process is completed.
Given just the numbers above, Forward Seattle would need an impossible 95.8 percent validation rate on the remaining signatures in order to qualify for the ballot. Not gonna happen. But there are also an additional 455 verified signatures out of 567 submitted from a second referendum drive. If these are added to the total (and it’s not clear that they legally can), Forward Seattle would still need a 91.5 percent validation rate on the remaining signatures. Again, not gonna happen. And that’s not even counting the “hundreds” of signature withdrawal affidavits Working Washington collected.
So stick a fork in it, this referendum is done! And it’s not even close: Forward Seattle will fall a couple thousand signatures short of the threshold. There will not be a $15 minimum wage referendum on the November ballot.
So the entire Seattle economy will collapse tomorrow as all the freeeee market glibertarian job creators go Galt on Seattle in response to socialist big government regulation.
/snark
Hey cheapskate slavedriver employers, thanks for letting us know who you are! c ya!
Huh. It’s almost as if a shady group hiring the shadiest petitioning company to use the shadiest signature gathering tactics* gives you some unreliable results. Or whatever.
*read: lies
Well, the good thing about Murray’s slow roll out of the minimum wage is there’s plenty of time to stop it in its tracks before the full amount of damage is done.
Chef Joe is right, this referendum was doomed from the start. People (including myself) support a minimum wage increase and this would have lost further cementing Mayor Murrays Frankenstein minimum wage policy that caters to special interests. Next year there will be an intiative to raise the minimum wage in a more equitable manner, which was Forward Seattle’s first choice, a $12.50 minimum wage with no exceptions or carve outs for anyone. This was disallowed when it came to light that intiatives can only be filed with in odd numbered yrs. This referendum would have lost, but I think a $12.50 minimum wage compared to Mayor Murray’s special interest driven $18 minimum wage has a pretty good chance. Giving the people something to vote “for” has a much better chance of success, then the refefendum. But yes labor had better be prepared to defend this every year.
.. indeed .. you biz’s will no longer get my biz. period.
And in retribution for socialist Seattle’s over reach in raising the minimum wage free market capitalists just paid a record price for the minimum wage shopping factory, Pacific Place Mall.
Because only fools believe Republican talking points.
@7
free market capitalists just paid a record price for the minimum wage shopping factory, Pacific Place Mall.
It’s foreign money, earned by investors who made their millions and billions by taking advantage of workers who don’t have the protections that American workers do. The local owners are cashing out.
This crap about pointing out ongoing commerce in the richest areas of Seattle as examples that the minimum wage increase won’t cause damage is misdirection. No one is fretting that the ultra-rich will be a little less ultra as a result of this.
The areas of concern – to most, anyway – are at the lower end of the spectrum – minority-owned businesses, newly established businesses, businesses in areas in which people who might see their jobs go away as a result of the changes are located.
HA types who cheer-lead the increasing wealth and opulence in markets like Capitol Hill and who trumpet sales of high-end hotels discredit themselves when they similarly claim to advocate to lower income inequality. They’re cheering the occurrence of transactional events that end up worsening the inequality they claim to oppose.
The local owners cashed out, MBS. Foreign money is coming in. That’s a good thing……..why, exactly?
Re: Sloppy Solipsist @8:
What’s the problem? Was ‘Bob’ outbid?
I thought this was how his precious capitalism was supposed to work.
Money talk and bullshit walks, buddy.
@ 9
This might be over your head, Rujax, as anything that involves adding together single digits stresses your level of comprehension.
But try asking yourself why the local ownership is cashing out. Ask yourself what happens to the employees of the company that is coming in with a large investment to recoup.
Yes, that’s how capitalism works. You’re exactly right.
@10…
The Sloppy Solpisist is as we know, possessor of really shitty reading comprehension skills.
“It’s foreign money,”
Yes, thank you for supporting MikeBoyScout’s point: Seattle remains an attractive investment for capitalists worldwide, despite our eradication of poverty wages.
“…earned by investors who made their millions and billions by taking advantage of workers who don’t have the protections that American workers do.”
While we know better than to expect citations for your claims, let’s note that if your claims are true, the new owners are sure showing a change of heart. They’re investing in a city with robust laws to protect workers — including a high minimum wage.
@8 You can make exactly the same arguments in favor of slavery. Minimum wage laws are enacted to protect workers, regardless of who they work for. It’s analogous to workplace safety regulations: To the worker, it makes no difference whether he works for a small minority-owned business or a giant corporation, nor is there any rational reason to exempt small minority-owned businesses from safety regulations simply because they’re less profitable than giant corporations.
@10 “Ask yourself what happens to the employees of the company that is coming in with a large investment to recoup.”
One thing that WON’T happen is the buyer won’t cut their wages to recoup their investment, because Seattle’s new minimum wage law won’t allow them to. Lay them all off? That’s the standard-issue wingnut prediction, but good luck running Pacific Place without employees.
@12 It might be a good thing, in that some of what they learn from their experience here might spill over into how they manage their sweatshops in Bangladesh, Phillippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
“HA types who cheer-lead the increasing wealth and opulence in markets like Capitol Hill and who trumpet sales of high-end hotels discredit themselves when they similarly claim to advocate to lower income inequality. They’re cheering the occurrence of transactional events that end up worsening the inequality they claim to oppose.”
How does the sale of Pacific Place to foreign investors detract from Seattle’s economy, or make it more unequal? You keep darkly implying it does, but never explain why. Is international trade somehow inherently bad? Does foreign investment downtown harm a local store in Fremont, or on Beacon Hill? We’ll need more than just your snide and condescending assertions before we change our policy.
@16 The new meme from the rightwingers is… it’s all the fault of those scary foreigners and their ill-gotten gains.