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Dave Reichert did NOT catch the Green River Killer

by Michael Hood — Thursday, 10/23/08, 5:04 pm

[EDITOR’S NOTE:  As long as the Reichert campaign is bringing up the issue of resume padding, isn’t it time the media address the real elephant in the room… the simple fact that Reichert’s entire political career is based on the out and out lie that he caught the Green River Killer?  Of course, he didn’t, and most everybody in the media understands that, but nobody is willing to say it publicly because it was the media after all, that willfully gave life to this self-aggrandizing myth.

So in the spirit of full disclosure, I am reprinting this October 2006 special post by Michael Hood, originally titled “It’s the Green River, Stupid.”  And you can read Part II of Michael’s report over on his blog, BlatherWatch. In the meanwhile, please help Darcy refute the lies, by generously giving to her one last time. — GOLDY]

I am not afraid, I’ve had people point guns at me.
— Rep. Dave Reichert

“He desecrated the victims. The public ought to know that.” Tomas Guillen is describing Republican 8th District Congressman Dave Reichert and his manipulation of the Green River murder investigation and the arrest of Gary Ridgway to climb up into party politics.

Guillen’s no political firebrand, he’s a respected Seattle University journalism and criminal justice professor. But as a Seattle Times reporter, he covered the Green River story from its beginnings and has written two books on the subject.

His academic text, Serial Killers: Issues Explored Through the Green River Murders, and Ridgway attorney Mark Prothero’s Defending Gary, both written after Reichert’s 2004 election, tell a starkly different story than does Reichert’s ghost-written autohagiography, Chasing the Devil, My Twenty-Year Quest to Capture the Green River Killer.

Reichert’s record as sheriff was exposed in last week’s devastating reporting by the P-I’s Lewis Kamb who found plenty of former colleagues who’d reveal him to be “an ambitious self-promoter, an inexperienced manager prone to poor decisions, even a close-minded detective more obstacle than asset to a serial murder investigation.”

Reichert refused to be interviewed in person for the P-I’s piece, preferring to answer the reporter’s questions in writing. He did not return our attempts at contact.

(The written material, and people we’ve talked to use some strong adjectives to describe the former Sheriff’s professional behavior: manipulative, self-serving, amateurish, ambitious, creepy, bungling, inappropriate, opportunistic, egotistical, voyeuristic, and stubborn. These are quite different from the descriptives we’ve been hearing for years: heroic, gracious, sensitive, muscular, chivalrous, well-mannered, brave, clean and reverent. You decide).

Sheriff Reichert became the public face of the sensational arrest of the serial killer by elbowing his way in front of the cameras on November 30, 2000 when the sensational collar was announced.

Everyone knows Reichert is the guy who caught the Green River killer- Why? Because he reminds us in every introduction; every speech, interview, and on his website.

It helped get him elected in 2004 in his race against KIRO radio host, Dave Ross; and he still flogs it every time he opens his mouth in his race against Darcy Burner.

Recently, on KUOW’s Weekday with Steve Scher, (in a rare appearance in a venue where he might be seriously questioned) he referenced serial killers no fewer than three times in one hour on the local NPR talk show despite being asked no questions on the subject by Scher, who’s unused to politicians who drop blood instead of names.

Here’s an example: Why is Reichert against abortion? He told a interviewer recently, “I have a great respect for life. I’ve seen a lot of death in my career, worked Green River, seen lots of dead bodies.”

Back in Washington, the Honorable Mr. Reichert is known as the Man from Green River- his longest speech on the House floor during his lackluster first term was about “capturing” Gary Ridgway.

The release of Chasing the Devil, in late July, 2004 was exquisitely synched-up with his primary campaign which was a difficult one with a crowded Republican field anxious to replace the retiring Jennifer Dunn.

Bolstered by both his publisher’s marketing and his own political campaign, it was a perfect PR storm. Reichert’s face was thrust onto the front pages of local papers. He was interviewed on CNN and Court TV in full dress uniform (and every hair present and accounted for) talking about “capturing” the killer.

“Reichert used the serial murder case to move forward,” Guillen told BlatherWatch. “It was a travesty.” Photos released when Ridgway was arrested show Reichert in a suit posing in the bottom of a ravine near the Des Moines Highway.

“He used the grave site of a murder victim for personal ambition,” he says.

Meanwhile, his opponents, Bellevue Councilman Conrad Lee, State Sen. Luke Esser and (now GOP State Chairman) Diane Tebelius were lucky if they made page B-1 with their little coffee klatches, blah-blah press releases, and cheesy meet & greets.

(Chasing the Devil was neither a literary nor a popular success. P-I books critic, John Marshall wrote that Reichert painted himself as “muscular, charismatic, devoutly Christian, a dogged mix of Dudley Do-Right and the Lone Ranger.” Not exactly a bestseller: you can now buy a like new copy on Amazon for $1.74.)

Although otherwise a failure, his book as a political instrument was inspired. Media was flooded with pictures of the sheriff in a hunky muscle shirt sifting for bones at a body dump site, or in full Sheriffian regalia sternly leaning into and staring down the cowering serial killer from across a table. Reichert won the primary easily and got a tremendous knee-up in the November election.

(There’s his hair. It’s magnificent. Dave Ross told us: “He’s got great hair, he’s acknowledged he’s got great hair.” He’s known in legal circles as “Sheriff Hairspray.” [Reichert’s hair]… is always ready for the next photo opportunity,” says Prothero).

“My standing orders were that we were going to campaign on issues,” says Dave Ross. “Rumors I got about Dave or the Green River killer or the release of the book- we weren’t going to touch them.”

But there’s more than a little resume inflation going on in Chasing the Devil. There’s some obfuscatin’. Reichert had been “lead detective” in 1982 as the first bodies surfaced in and around the Green River. His book, however, would let you believe he held the title until 1990, never mentioning that several other detectives led in later murders.

The book is more than three quarters done before he makes passing reference to the fact that the task force had commanders over the “lead detectives.” Former Detective Bob Keppel told the P-I, Reichert was “one detective among many,” and never led discussions about the direction of the task force as a true leader would have.

Actually, he had little to do with the investigation having left the task force in 1990 to climb the bureaucratic ladder in the Sheriff’s Department. What’s more, these new accounts show how Reichert’s tremendous ego was responsible for early police blunders that stalled the investigation and let Gary Ridgway continue killing for decades.

But great hair or not, “He got elected based on Green River, when in fact, he didn’t solve it and he didn’t win against Gary Ridgway,” says Guillen.”

The fact is: technology caught the killer, not Detective Reichert’s dogged shoe-leather sleuthing as his press so dramatically implies. Even then, on Sheriff Reichert’s watch, the saliva sample that could have busted Ridgway as early as 1996 when the DNA technology became available, was not tested until 2001.

Women died in that interim.


[Click through to read It’s the Green River, Stupid: Part 2, including the really creepy parts.  And please don’t forget to give to Darcy.  Thanks.]

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Why does Rossi hate the initiative process?

by Goldy — Thursday, 10/16/08, 8:33 pm

Whenever we pass a ballot measure lowering taxes or limiting government in some way, or reject a measure proposing the reverse, the wise old sages of our media and political establishment always caution that we must follow “the will of the people.”  Yet I have noticed a curious pattern to Dino Rossi, who criticizes Gov. Gregoire for raising the gas tax, advocates for reducing the minimum wage and eliminating the estate tax, and has voted to defund initiatives raising teacher pay and reducing class size… all actions contrary to the will of the people as expressed at the polls.

I-920: Rejected, 38-62
This measure would repeal Washington’s state laws imposing tax, currently dedicated for the education legacy trust fund, on transfers of estates of persons dying on or after the effective date of this measure.

I-912: Rejected, 45-55
Initiative Measure No. 912 concerns motor vehicle fuel taxes. This measure would repeal motor vehicle fuel tax increases of 3 cents in 2005 and 2006, 2 cents in 2007, and 1.5 cents per gallon in 2008, enacted in 2005 for transportation purposes. Should this measure be enacted into law?

I-728: Approved, 72-28
Shall school districts reduce class sizes, extend learning programs, expand teacher training, and construct facilities, funded by lottery proceeds, existing property taxes, and budget reserves?

I-732: Approved, 63-37
Shall public school teachers, other school district employees, and certain employees of community and technical colleges receive annual cost-of-living salary adjustments, to begin in 2001-2002?

I-688: Approved, 66-34
Shall the state minimum wage be increased from $4.90 to $5.70 in 1999 and to $6.50 in 2000, and afterwards be annually adjusted for inflation?

And Rossi’s disregard for the will of the people doesn’t end there, with the candidate promising to build an Alaska Way tunnel that Seattle voters rejected by 70-30 margin, while constantly attacking Gov. Gregoire for failing to build a new Sonics arena that 74% of voters rejected at the polls.  And that’s just off the top of my head.

Huh.  If that’s the way Rossi honors the will of the people while running for office, imagine how much respect he’ll show us once he’s in it.

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Feel the love

by Jon DeVore — Thursday, 10/9/08, 9:02 am

State Sen. Joseph Zarelli, R- Ridgefield and ranking minority member of Ways and Means, responding to criticism of his 2007 “Convergence Northwest” conference that featured extreme-right speakers and Knesset members:

Zarelli said the conference was open to the public but told The Columbian he did not invite Muslims to make presentations because, “It’s not my purpose or goal to understand why somebody wants to kill Americans.”

I wish I could report that Democrat Jon Haugen was a worthy adversary for Zarelli in the 18th LD, but unfortunately Haugen is about as wingnutty as they come too.

I have submitted Initiative to the People 997

Initiative Measure No. 997 concerns valuation of single-family residences
for property tax purposes. I have spoken with Tim Eyman about this idea
and discussed the uniformity clause of the Washington State Constitution.

This measure would limit tax valuation of single-family residences to the
assessed value on December 31, 2005, adjusted annually for inflation but
not greater than two percent higher than the previous year’s valuation.
Should this measure be enacted into law?

Great. An end of times candidate or a Tim Eyman candidate. Some choice.

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Better than Hoover (Part VII)

by Goldy — Monday, 9/29/08, 1:38 pm

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 777 points today at 10,365… 223 points below where it stood the day President George W. Bush took office.  That’s a 2.1% drop over Bush’s 7 years, 9 months in office, for an annualized return of -0.27% making him the first president to produce a negative annualized return since Herbert Hoover.  (By comparison, the DJIA produced annualized returns of about 28% during President Bill Clinton’s eight years in office.)

And compared to the other major market indices, the DJIA looks good.  The S&P 500 fell 8% today, and is now down about 21% over the Bush administration, while the NASDAQ Composite fell another 9%, for a stunning 40% decline during the Bush years.  To put that in perspective, a $100 investment in an index fund tracking the NASDAQ would now be worth only $48.50 in inflation adjusted dollars.

Remember, it was the Bush administration who declared a crisis that required an immediate bailout, it was Bush who put forth the original proposal, it was Bush who joined with Democrats on a bipartisan compromise, and it was Bush who ultimately failed to bring his House caucus with him.  Oh… and it was Bush’s failed economic policies and disregard for regulation that laid the groundwork for this mess.

So much for the “CEO president.”

UPDATE:
I’ve edited the DJIA numbers to reflect the actual close; apparently it was dropping so fast at the buzzer it took a while for the ticker to catch up with the trades.

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Gregoire hits Rossi on minimum wage

by Goldy — Sunday, 9/28/08, 8:37 pm

As Josh reported from Thursday’s gubernatorial debate, Dino Rossi voiced support for repealing Washington’s highest in the nation minimum wage (currently $8.05 an hour), tied to inflation by a citizen’s initiative.  Rossi told the Association of Washington Businesses:

”The minimum wage was not meant to be a family wage. It’s meant to be an entry level wage.”

Rarely during this campaign has Rossi made the mistake of publicly stating his position on an issue on which he is so out of step with voters.  Don’t get me wrong, Rossi is way out of step on a number of issues, he just refuses to talk about them, and so far our press has been mostly complicit in his silence.  But this time he spoke loud and clear, and one would think that reporters might follow up.

It’s encouraging to see the Gregoire campaign quickly respond with an ad; I just hope they continue to hit him on the minimum wage.  And harder.

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There is no state budget deficit

by Goldy — Sunday, 9/21/08, 5:40 pm

Let’s be absolutely clear about one thing:  there is no state budget deficit.  There never has been, and there never will be.  Washington’s constitution simply does not allow deficit spending, so whatever the revenue forecast is when it is time to write the next biennium budget, and whoever is governor at the time, the budget will be balanced.

But that didn’t stop Dino Rossi from going on the attack during last night’s debate:

Rossi wasted no time blasting Gregoire’s record, accusing her of recklessly spending the state into a record deficit and presiding over a rising state unemployment rate. He also made note of her recent TV attack ads, which he said misrepresent his position on stem-cell research.

“She’s trying to distract us from the issues that most people in the state are talking about,” he said at the debate sponsored by the Seattle P-I, KOMO4 and the League of Women Voters. “Issues like this $3.2 billion deficit that she has created and she’s going to raise your taxes to solve.”

Again, there is no budget deficit, and both candidates have promised to balance the budget without raising taxes.  As for rising state unemployment, we are in the midst of a national recession, yet Washington continues to buck the trend by actually adding jobs to the state’s payrolls:

Washington had an estimated net gain of 1,300 non-agricultural jobs in August.

The number of non-agricultural jobs in Washington in August 2008 was 41,800 higher than in August 2007, a 1.4 percent increase. Nationally, jobs declined by 0.21 percent over the past year.

That’s a lower job growth rate than we’ve been accustomed to in recent years, but the reason our unemployment rate keeps rising is that people continue to move here for our relatively robust economy compared to the rest of the nation.  Meanwhile, our farmers are enjoying ample harvests and the best commodity prices they seen in years.

So all this talk about a $3.2 billion deficit is really misleading, and the media’s tendency to fixate on this number without thoroughly explaining it plays right into Rossi’s hands.  It is a revenue forecast for 2010-2011, which currently falls $3.2 billion short of the revenue needed to maintain state spending at its current rate of growth.  And as I’ve explained in the past, state spending has remained at about six percent of the state economy for more than decade, its growth more or less pegged to our state economy’s rate of growth, as measured in total personal income.

As explained in the Gates Commission report, and numerous other scholarly works on the subject, the economic number that most closely tracks growth in demand for government services is growth in total personal income, that is, total economic growth.  This is because (and perhaps counter to popular misconceptions) the majority of state and local government services are commodities, and we tend to increase our consumption of commodities as our income grows.  Roads, sewers, schools, courts, public safety, public health… these and other government services are all things we consume more of the wealthier we become, and thus personal income, not population plus inflation, is the best measure for tracking growth in demand for these services.

You can argue with me on this if you want, and perhaps there are economists who can explain these concepts more clearly than me, but both academia and reality are on my side.

So any accusation of reckless spending on the part of Gov. Gregoire is simple hyperbole.  During the Gregoire administration state spending grew at roughly the same pace as our economy, while managing to put hundreds of millions of dollars aside in a rainy day fund.  And where did the bulk of her spending increases go?  On education, where she fully funded two statewide initiatives calling for reduced class size and greater teacher pay… that is, she met the voters’ express demand for expanded government service.

And on taxes, well, both candidates promise to balance the budget without raising taxes, and I see no reason to believe one more than other.  Rossi accuses Gregoire of raising taxes during her administration, and it is true that she did raise the gas tax and reinstate the estate tax… but both of these measures were subsequently and overwhelmingly approved by voters at the polls.  If the argument is that Gregoire gave voters what they wanted, that’s a criticism she shouldn’t be shy of embracing.

And really, find me a Democrat who expects Gregoire to sign a tax increase… I betcha can’t.  Hell if House Speaker Frank Chopp is going to risk his meticulously crafted majority by pushing through an unpopular sales tax increase, so that’s not going to happen, and neither would a B&O tax increase during an economic downturn.  And I can tell you first hand that we fair tax advocates have pretty much given up hope of Gregoire embracing a sensible repeal of even a small fraction of the billions of dollars a year in questionable tax exemptions handed out to businesses and other special interests over the past decade.

And if you think that somehow Gregoire is going to embrace an income tax… well… I’ve got an eight-lane 520 bridge to sell you.

So what it comes down to in the end is not who will balance our next budget but rather, what will be their priorities.  Do we want a governor who has made education and children’s health care their number one priority during their administration, or a governor who proudly claims a budget proposal that cut health insurance for 40,000 kids?  Do we want a budget balanced by a governor who has made cleaning up Puget Sound one of the centerpieces of her second term, or by a governor who doesn’t believe in global warming, and who voted 99% with the orca-killing BIAW?  Do we want a budget balanced by a governor who actually believes it is the government’s proper role to deliver the services voters want, or do we want it balanced by governor who fully embraces the failed anti-regulatory, anti-government policies of George W. Bush?

Rossi complains that Gregoire’s efforts to talk about actual issues is a distraction from the campaign, but it is his and the media’s obsessive focus a deficit that isn’t, that is the real distraction.  There is no budget deficit. That is a fact.

But, of course, when have effective political campaigns ever been about facts?

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Better than Hoover (Part VI)

by Goldy — Wednesday, 9/17/08, 2:35 pm

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down almost 450 points today, at 10,609.66… only 22 points higher than where it stood on January 20, 2001, the day George W. Bush took office.

Adjusted for inflation, a $100 investment in a DJIA index fund just before Bush took office would now be worth only $81… but that’s still better than the approximately $69 a similar investment would be worth, had you invested in the broader S&P 500, which now stands down 186.15 points, or almost 14% off its pre-Bush close, or the inflation adjusted $55 value of a $100 investment in the NASDAQ Composite, down a stunning 32% over President Bush’s seven and a half years in office.

But, you know, John McCain bills himself as “the greatest free trader” and “greatest deregulator” ever, so who better to trust to fix the underlying causes of this unprecedented financial crisis?

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Better than Hoover (Part V)

by Goldy — Monday, 9/15/08, 1:18 pm

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 504.48 points today, at 10917.51.  That’s only 329.92 points higher than where it stood on January 20, 2001, the day George W. Bush took office.

To put that in perspective, had you invested $100 in a DJIA index fund just before Bush took office, it would be worth about $83 today in inflation adjusted dollars.

But, you know, John McCain says “the fundamentals of our economy are strong,” so there’s nothing to worry about.

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Better than Hoover a mattress

by Goldy — Saturday, 7/12/08, 8:36 am

The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued its bearish slide, closing this week at 11,100, near a two-year low, and inching ever downward toward the 10,587 mark where the market stood the day President Bush was inaugurated. For those who are keeping score, that’s a seven and a half year return of 4.8%, or only 0.65% annually.

To put that in perspective, had you invested $10,000 on inauguration day in an index fund that tracked the DJIA, it would be worth $8,568 today in inflation-adjusted 2001 dollars, compared to only $8,175 had you simply stuffed that money in a mattress.

What with no bottom in sight to the housing, banking, automotive and other industries, and one of the largest bank failures in US history making headlines yesterday, that mattress is beginning to look like a pretty savvy investment. Our Republican administration on the other hand… not so much.

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A modest proposal: cut taxes to improve schools

by Goldy — Sunday, 5/11/08, 9:51 pm

When KVI host Kirby Wilbur used his radio show to announce a 30% Property Tax Cut initiative, my reaction was admittedly knee jerk. Washington’s public schools rely on property taxes for 100% of their state and local funding; how could our children possibly afford such a dramatic cut? I was outraged.

But once my knees stopped jerking, I decided to step back and take an objective look. So I steeled my bleeding heart, threw out my assumptions, and delved into the numbers. And what I found surprised me:

Wilbur’s tax cuts may be exactly what our schools need.

I will explain. But first, the numbers.

The Paradox

There are a little over one million students enrolled in Washington public schools, an increase of about 100,000 since 1993, and while annual state spending per student has risen during that time, it has consistently lagged behind inflation. Indeed, Washington’s total per pupil spending now ranks 43rd nationally.

Yet, as funding declines, public demand for increased K-12 spending remains steady. In November 2000, voters overwhelmingly passed I-728, calling for class size reduction, and I-732, granting teachers annual cost-of-living adjustments. And polling data consistently shows that voters believe education spending is growing too slowly.

But tax-cutting initiatives have proven equally popular, so it is not beyond the realm of recent experience to imagine Wilbur’s 30% tax cut measure passing in the fall, slashing about $2230 per student annually from the average school district’s budget.

So how do we honor the will of the people—as conservative talk radio so often demands—when the people contradict themselves? Simple algebra. Solve to x.

If per student spending is too low, yet taxes are too high, there can be only one answer:

We have too many students.

The Proposal

It has been said that a child’s mind is a terrible thing to waste, but the same is true of a child’s body. I have been assured by culinary experts in several obscure internet chat rooms, that in flavor and texture a school-age child compares quite favorably to pork, and is equally versatile and nutritious. Properly prepared, it would be virtually indistinguishable in a taco filling or sausage patty… or perhaps as a substitute ingredient in “turkey” tetrazini.

And with one third of students now qualifying for free or reduced price lunch, it only seems fair that overburdened taxpayers turn toward the student body to help offset the cost of this growing public subsidy.

Fortunately, thanks to the WASL test, a mechanism for culling the herd is already in place. For example, if only those students scoring in the bottom 10% of the WASL were harvested to supply the school lunch program, per-student funding would instantly be restored to 1993 levels.

And the benefits don’t end there.

With 100,000 fewer students, class size would drop an average of two students per room, dramatically improving the learning environment while significantly reducing the cost to fully implement I-728. Average WASL scores would rise substantially, simply by eliminating the low end of the curve. And of course, surviving students would be treated to tasty, protein-rich school lunches that bring new meaning to the phrase “you are what you eat.”

But perhaps the greatest benefit would be motivational, for students will be much less likely to slack off when they know that their Sloppy Joe is eponymously named.

Of course, the 10% cut-off is merely an example, and we can likely achieve a similar return on disinvestment while sacrificing fewer children. After all, many of our lowest scoring students are those with special needs — the most expensive to educate — and thus the source of the greatest potential savings. And merely enacting this policy would shave thousands from the rolls as less civic-minded parents moved their children to schools in Oregon, California, and other states with lower academic standards.

Now I know some might find this policy harsh, or even distasteful. But it would be equally harsh to leave our children ill prepared to compete in the global economy, and we simply cannot attract enough qualified teachers without finding the money to pay a competitive wage.

The math is simple. If Washington citizens are serious about improving education, serious about reducing class size, increasing teacher pay, and raising test scores, then we must increase per student spending. But if voters are equally determined to slash taxes… well then… I thank Wilbur and his cohorts for opening my eyes to the harsh reality of this dog-eat-dog world.

And so I offer my modest proposal in the hope of sparking a much needed public debate, and I trust that it will be received in the spirit in which it is intended.

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The falling federal gas tax

by Goldy — Tuesday, 5/6/08, 8:40 am

Both John McCain and Hillary Clinton propose a summer “holiday” from the federal gasoline tax, but did you know that this tax has been steadily falling in inflation adjusted dollars for the past 15 years?

The federal gas tax was last raised in 1993, from 14.1 cents a gallon to the current 18.4 cents. Adjusted for inflation, that makes our current tax the equivalent of only 12.4 cents a gallon in 1993 dollars. It is interesting to note that if in 1959, the year Congress established the National Highway Trust Fund, the then 4 cent tax was pegged to inflation, consumers would now be paying about 29.4 cents a gallon.

Still think our federal gas tax is unaffordable? Take a look at the US tax compared to a handful of other industrialized nations:

Country Gas tax in US cents
Belgium 422
France 421
Germany 449
Italy 403
Japan 439
Netherlands 466
United Kingdom 471
United States 18.4

Even when you add in state and local taxes, US consumers get a relative bargain, only a combined 39 cents a gallon on average, with Washington residents paying a near national high of 54.4 cents.

At a time when our bridges are collapsing and many of our cities are clogged with congestion (not to mention global warming and our blood-for-oil war in Iraq), it is hard to see how we can afford to keep the tax at the current historically low level, let alone suspend it entirely for a few months. Indeed, according to today’s Seattle P-I:

The gas tax holiday proposed by Sens. John McCain and Hillary Clinton would save the typical Washington driver $28 this year but cost the state about $126 million in lost highway money and more than 4,300 highway-related jobs, according to a recent report.

Or, it may not actually save the typical Washington driver anything, as according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Historically, price changes for consumer gasoline have been driven by changes in supply as opposed to demand. In all recent cases, interruptions in the supply of crude petroleum resulted in significant increases in the prices of crude petroleum, wholesale gasoline, and consumer gasoline. However, changes in demand affected gasoline prices only marginally.

Since suspending the federal gas tax will do nothing to increase supply, and could actually increase demand, one can only assume that market forces will act to increase the retail price to fill the void. (That is, assuming you believe in the economic laws of supply and demand.)

Coming up, I’ll tie all my research together into a cogent argument for higher state and federal gas taxes.

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WA’s falling gas tax

by Goldy — Monday, 5/5/08, 4:13 pm

Did you know that despite an increase of 13 cents a gallon over the past few years, Washington state’s motor fuel excise tax, as a percentage of the retail price of a gallon of regular grade gasoline, has actually fallen from about 21.9% in May of 1998 to about 9.6% in May of 2008? And did you know that at 36 cents a gallon, our state gas tax is still well below historic averages in inflation adjusted dollars?

Surprised?  I wasn’t.

Coming up, I’ll one-up Barack Obama and explain why we not only shouldn’t be cutting the gas tax, but raising it.  Dramatically.  Stay tuned.

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Time to give Rossi’s $15.5 billion $50 billion fantasy the Roads and Transit treatment

by Will — Wednesday, 4/16/08, 2:49 pm

Remember all those funny acronyms from last fall’s mainstream media coverage of the Roads and Transit campaign? YOE, for year of expenditure was a favorite of many of Seattle’s newspaper writers and columnists. They were fixated (examples here, here, and here) on slapping the Roads and Transit plan with as high a price tag as they could by including inflation into the total price tag of the plan, not just the price tag in current year dollars. By doing so, they held the Roads and Transit plan to a standard never before seen for a tax measure or capital construction program in our region.

Yesterday Dino Rossi released his transportation fantasy and said it would cost $15.5 billion in 2007 dollars. Keep in mind, that’s in last year’s dollars.

I have done a little bit of “back of the envelope” math (you know the kind that Rossi’s Republican, anti-light rail pals did when they fed the media their scary cost numbers on Prop 1) and the results I get are staggering. Rossi’s $15.5 billion plan, when you account for 4 percent annual inflation over a 30 year construction schedule, suddenly balloons to $50 billion dollars. And this doesn’t even include the interest on the bonds that would be needed to finance all of Rossi’s made up project cost estimates. So we would have to add all of the interest payments to the $50 billion number to get the true cost, well at least according to our friends in the “traditional media.”

You can do the math yourself with this handy little inflation calculator.

UPDATE [Lee]: This part from a post by Martin at the Seattle Transit Blog made me laugh:

So I looked to Dino Rossi’s Transportation Plan with hope and anticipation. I shouldn’t have. This document was first sent to me by a Gregoire operative; when your own campaign literature is being gleefully distributed by the other side, that’s a bad sign.

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Careful governor, careless Times

by Goldy — Monday, 4/7/08, 10:41 am

The Seattle Times editorial board urges Gov. Gregoire to be “careful” regarding the state budget…

Its additions were modest, and the $0.015 billion the governor vetoed was helpful in that regard. So was the $0.85 billion ending savings account. But these changes were on the top of a total — $33.7 billion in a two-year cycle — that was not modest. In four years, state spending has risen by 33 percent. […] Some of this spending was necessary. But the across-the-board spending has meant the state was not able to lower taxes in any substantial way.

Yeah, well, there are reasons to be careful regarding the state budget in the face of an antiquated tax system that virtually assures a longterm structural deficit, but not for the reasons the Times suggests. Indeed, every time they trod out Rossi’s intentionally misleading “33 percent” number — without offering readers the appropriate budgetary context — the Times does a great disservice toward the cause of fiscal stability.

Yes, the state budget has grown by about a third over the past four years, and no, that rate is not sustainable when compared to longterm budget forecasts, but our state government’s growth has absolutely been “modest” by any meaningful economic measure. In fact, a January 2007 analysis by the Washington State Budget & Policy Center clearly shows that general fund spending under Gov. Gregoire has merely followed the same trend established during the 1990s.

budgettrend1.gif

The Times would have you believe that it was the spending increase under Gov. Gregoire’s watch that is the anomaly, when in fact it was the slower spending growth during the national recession and tepid recovery that actually fell below historical growth levels. Gov. Gregoire’s budget merely returned the state to the established trend.

Indeed, as a share of the total state economy, Gov. Gregoire’s budget actually represents a reduced investment — a smaller share of state resources than any of the six budgets that directly precede it.

budgettrend2.gif

Anti-government/anti-tax critics can spout all they want about rising spending and per-capita tax increases, but those numbers are entirely meaningless when taken out of context… as they usually are. Read the academic literature and you will find that the most common metric used in comparative studies of government spending, and for analyzing the relative growth of both expenditures and revenues, is spending/taxation as a percentage of personal income.

The reason is twofold. First, the economic metric that most closely tracks long term growth in demand for government services is growth in total personal income. That is because many of the services provided by the government are commodities, and as personal income increases, so does consumption. As our state grows wealthier, demand for government services increases faster than population plus inflation.

The other reason to focus on personal income is that it is the only metric that tracks individual taxpayers’ ability to pay. The state invests in things like transportation and education and law enforcement — investments that provide the infrastructure necessary for our economy to grow and for all our citizens to prosper. Thus a spending increase, even when accompanied by an increase in marginal tax rates, does not increase the real burden on individual taxpayers if it results in a corresponding increase in personal income.

So how does our state stack up in terms of state and local taxes as a percentage of personal income? Again, according to the Budget & Policy Center, Washington currently ranks 36th nationwide… and falling.

lowtax.jpg

There is a legitimate debate to be had over the proper size and scope of government, and the priority in which we make public investments, but it is fundamentally dishonest to enter this debate by reinforcing the common misconception that our state government is out of control, when by the most meaningful measure — the government’s total share of our state’s economic resources — even a four-year 33-percent increase represents a decline from historic trends. And it is equally dishonest to profess a concern for fiscal responsibility by focusing solely on budgetary expenditures while refusing to address the revenue side of the equation.

Washington state not only boasts the most regressive tax structure in the nation — one in which the bottom 20% of wage earners pay a whopping 17.6% of income in state and local taxes while the wealthiest pay only 3.1% — our tax system is also based on an antiquated, early 20th century model that over-relies on an ever shrinking portion of our 21st century economy: the manufacture and sale of goods. Economic booms can mask this structural deficit in the short term, but because our economic growth is increasingly occurring in sectors that remain un- or under-taxed, longterm revenue growth simply cannot keep pace with growth in demand for public services… at least not without raising marginal tax rates, shifting an ever greater burden on exactly those families who can least afford it.

The Times and other critics have repeatedly cautioned about unsustainable budget growth while refusing to articulate which programs and services they would see slashed, or displaying an ounce of willingness to discuss the kind of fundamental tax restructuring that might allow state and local government revenues to reliably keep pace with both economic growth, and with the growth in demand for public services. If the Times editorial board wants a smaller state government — if they want to see less per capita real dollars spent on education, transportation, law enforcement, children’s health care, and other essential services — they should just come out and say it; we would all benefit from an honest debate. But the sort of disingenuous budgetary “concern trolling” they display in today’s editorial adds absolutely nothing to the discussion.

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Governor floats new bridge plan

by Goldy — Monday, 3/3/08, 10:20 pm

On the same day Washington was ranked amongst the top three most effective state governments, Gov. Christine Gregoire helped demonstrate how she made the grade by announcing revised plans that would replace the 520 floating bridge two years sooner and at as much as $700 million below previous estimates. Much of the savings come simply from accelerating construction, thus avoiding anticipated inflation of concrete and other materials.

The accelerated schedule is achieved through a number of means, including expediting the environmental permitting process and beginning construction on the rest of the 520 corridor sooner than originally planned, but much of it is due to advancing pontoon construction at two facilities simultaneously. Construction on smaller pontoons will now begin in 2009 at an existing facility in Tacoma, while construction on a new facility at Grays Harbor will begin in 2010, with production coming online the following year. Pontoons from both facilities will be floated through the locks, and into Lake Washington, where they will be assembled on site. This accelerated construction plan also has the ancillary benefit of creating hundreds of new local jobs at a time the national economy is headed into recession.

The proposal calls for a six-lane bridge — two general purpose lanes and an HOV lane in each direction — and will avoid the need for a draw span by raising the clearance on the Eastside approach. The bridge is designed to be expandable, with the ability to add new lanes or rail capacity by attaching a new row of pontoons to one side, and is now scheduled to be completed by the Fall of 2014, with full 520 corridor improvements to be finished by 2016. The total project will be financed by $1.7 billion in state and federal money, and as much as $2 billion in tolls.

In a letter to legislative leaders, Gov. Gregoire explained that the revised plan came in response to a request she made to WSDOT in January to explore all options for accelerating construction. Credit surely goes to WSDOT for rethinking the construction plan and finding the savings in both time and money, but credit also goes to Gov. Gregoire for pushing this process along.

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