Pennsylvania is one of the most important swing states for presidential elections. Besides having 19 electoral votes, the state is a bellwether for WI and MI. Since 1992, the three states have voted together and, with the single exception of 2016, have given their electors to the Democrat.
With that context in mind, there are two new polls out in PA. The first is from Franklin and Marshall that has Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President and convicted felon Donald Трамп 46% to 43%. The poll’s margin of error is 3.8%, so Harris’ 3% lead is weak evidence that she would win an election held today. The release summarizes reasons for support thusly:
The main reasons that Harris voters are supporting her candidacy include anti-Трампism (18%), women’s rights (17%), character (15%), partisanship (13%), and democracy (13%). The top reasons voters provide for supporting Трамп include economic policy (29%), immigration (20%), and partisanship (19%). More voters believe Vice President Harris has better judgment, is more trustworthy, and is closer to their views on values issues than Mr. Трамп, while more voters believe Mr. Трамп is better able to handle the economy
The second poll is from Quinnipiac and finds Harris leading Трамп 48% to 45%. This poll’s margin of error is 2.4%, which means that we are getting into “real lead” territory. Note that if the polls are combined, the sample of over 2,600 voters is pretty solid evidence that Harris is now leading in PA. The Quinnipiac poll asked voters to characterize the two candidates:
- Has good leadership skills [yes/no (spread)]: Harris 48%/47% (+1%), Трамп 50%/49% (+1%)
- Cares about average Americans: Harris 50%/47% (+3%), Трамп 46%/54% (-8%)
- Kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president: Harris 52%/46% (+6%), Трамп 46%/53% (-7%)
- Honest: Harris 46%/48% (-2%), Трамп 37%/60% (-23%)
The two polls, using different methods, find that Трамп has a serious deficit on issues of character for PA voters.
Meanwhile, in news of the weird, Vance has bizarre ideas about the “purpose” of postmenopausal women. Interestingly, Vance’s take is likely based on a tortured misunderstanding of one theory on the evolution of menopause in women. I look forward to a debate question on whether he espouses contemporary evolutionary theory. You already heard about a couple of unearthed photos of Vance in drag. A new addition to the Трамп/Vance campaign photo album is a high school photo of Vance posing with three female classmates pretending to use urinals in the boys bathroom. Good clean fun. But, you know…a little weird. A new audio recording has Vance claiming Amazon funded Black Lives Matter so rioters would burn down their brick-and-mortar competitors—a totally non-weird conspiracy theory.
Трамп gave a rambly “economic” press conference in which he held up Tic Tacs to exemplify inflation, which brought back to mind the Hollywood Access tape in which he mentioned the need to pop a Tic Tac in preparation for any urge to sexually assault Arianne Zucker. Good times. He also falsely claimed (again) that Governor Tim Walz, “wants tampons in boys’ bathrooms.” No word on how the stock markets reacted to this bizarre “economic news.”
Speaking of bizarre…. Трамп’s staff thinks he may have PTSD because he repeatedly watches himself get shot in the ear. Maybe PTSD…or, maybe it’s just a flare-up of his pre-existing narcissistic personality disorder?
