A new poll in the Washington state gubernatorial race has Dino Rossi (“G.O.P. Party”) holding a small lead over Gov. Christine Gregoire (D). The race is a rematch of the 2004 contest that Gregoire won by 133 out of 2.8 million votes.
The Strategic Vision poll sampled 800 likely voters. Gregoire received 46% support and Rossi received 48% support; 6% were “undecided”. The poll was taken from 14-Sep to 16-Sep and has a margin of error of ±3%.
Rossi has now led in three of the four September polls. Last week’s Rasmussen poll had Rossi leading Gregoire 52% to 46%. Before that, an Elway poll gave Gregoire a 49.1% to 42.4% lead over Rossi. The first poll of September gave Rossi a 48% to 47% lead over Gregoire. Other recent polling shows a shift from Gregoire’s summer advantage to a very close race with, perhaps, a small advantage for Rossi:
Clearly Rossi’s new lead is well within the margin of error. We can empirically determine the probability that either Rossi or Gregoire would win an election held now using a Monte Carlo analysis.
A million simulated elections of 800 voters gives Gregoire 334,771 wins and Rossi 655,982 wins. If the election was held now, Gregoire would have a 33.8% probability of winning and Rossi would have a 66.2% probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes resulting from the simulation.
The Strategic Vision poll also looked at the presidential race. Obama holds a surprisingly thin +5% (47% to 42%) lead over McCain. The recent Rasmussen poll showed a tighter +2% margin, the Elway Research poll found Obama with a 7.5% advantage, and a SurveyUSA poll gave Obama a +4% edge. Here is the other recent polling:
As we see in the Gregoire–Rossi race, the Obama–McCain contest has tightened up noticeably since mid-Summer.
Maybe it’s time for Obama to stop back for another slice of Washington state apple pie.
Update: ARG just released a new Washington state poll that gives Obama a +6% lead (50% to 44%) over McCain.
“Gregoire says state expects deficit next year
Gov. Christine Gregoire for the first time Thursday echoed what Republicans have been saying for months: The state will face a budget deficit next legislative session.
By Andrew Garber
Seattle Times Olympia bureau
OLYMPIA — Gov. Christine Gregoire for the first time Thursday echoed what Republicans have been saying for months: The state faces a budget deficit next legislative session.
“I’m expecting a shortfall and I’m preparing for it,” she said in a telephone interview.”
Anyone in leadership that takes this long to even acknowledge an obvious problem deserves to be fired. Gregoire blames Washington and pretends to demand accountability. She ought to start with herself.
Working families have not increased their spending over 31% the past 4 years like Gregoire did.
To only now acknowledge the Budget Trainwreck she created is telling…she is either blind or incompetent. Neither one is good.
And we still haven’t heard a peep about the DEFICIT in the State Retirement Fund. Governor Gregoire, someone someday is going to have to fund this. While you increased spending $8 BILLION and created a phoney-baloney Rainy Day Fund for political window-dressing, the State Retirement Fund went deeper and deeper into debt and our Budget situation is now disastrous.
The question now is this:
Do voters trust Gregoire, the person who caused this mess with overspending, to fix her mess? Do voters trust Gregoire, who only now even acknowledges the problem, to fix her mess? Do voters trust Gregoire, a 39-year Government tax-and-spend Bureaucrat to fix this mess without a major tax increase? Do voters trust Gregoire who now says she is preparing some secret mystical plan for fixing her mess??
I don’t!
Please Lefty’s….share with us why we should?
Daddy Love’s Gregoire defense message is consistent and mighty tired.
Rossi can point to all the states with budget surpluses that have 1 thing in common…Republican Governor’s!
I posted it previously, but you ignored it so I’ll refresh your memory:
Alabama 700 mil
Alaska 2.7 bil
Idaho 224 mil
Missouri 833 mil
Utah 1.6 billion
Gregoire is the sitting Governor. The FACT that only today she acknowledges the huge problem and blames Bush is a huge problem. Gregoire is essentially absolving herself of all responsibility DESPITE THE FACT that she acknowledged increased spending was not sustainable…and did it anyway.
Daddy Love…you know in your heart of hearts a 39-year career government bureaucrat who makes this kind of mess and is slow beyond belief to even acknowledge it, deserves to be fired. Didn’t you demand the firing of all kinds of folks connected with the Katrina disaster? This is just as bad.
I know you are obligated to ring the partisan Leftist Bell so I don’t hold you nonsensical posts against you personally. But it’s mighty lame to say Rossi should present his plan BEFORE the sitting Governor who created the mess with 31% increased spending on her watch.
You actually want us to trust Gregoire’s secret plan?
C’mn Daddy Love…that flies in the face of everything you have claimed to believe in repeatedly!
And Daddy Love–
You conveniently fail to ever acknowledge or address the huge $5.1 BILLION @ 6/30/07 and growing underfunding of the State Retirement Fund. It is probably nearly $8 BILLION DEFICIT with the decline in equity markets and the FACT that $38 BILLION (over 1/2) of the State Retirement Fund is invested in equities.
This is a disaster.
Do you really truly believe the average voter will believe you can have a Budget Surplus and Rainy Day Fund when we have a monstrous unfunded liability????
C’mon Daddy Love…you look foolish and are better than that.
Gregoire used smoke-and-mirrors, shell-game accounting & budgeting to creat these mystical situations.
It’s like the average citizen taking out a bunch of credit cards, borrowing to the max, putting money in the bank, spending some of it and decrying “LOOK I HAVE A SURPLUS AND RAINY DAY FUND!!
What a joke Daddy Love.
Throw in the towel.
You guys gotta face the facts. “Casino” Chris Gregoire and her cronies have OVERSPENT the budget by BILLIONS.
She has to answer for that.
4 J425
No, John, you are absolutely wrong.
Cracka fucking book (or look it up on the handy website http://www.wa.gov).
Chris Gregoire and the legislature UNDERspent the biennial budget and ended up with a surplus.
Now, I know you guys looooove to lie. But you jsut sounds stupid when people know the facts are different.
Again, Cyn, Dino offers no plan. You offer no plan. All you have is mud.
It turns out that teh $800 million suplus is old information, snce revenues are driopping due to the national slowdown. THe Washingon State Senate Ways and Means COmittee has revised its forecast here.
The bottom line is that the current budget sruplus is $89.6 million, with an additional 442.1 million in the Budget stabilization account.
Cynical, the state is mandated to balance the budget, and it is balanced. Your claims about “smoke-and-mirrors” and “shell-game accounting” are just the usual wild-eyed Republican lying.
But you may be right about what citizens will believe.
I’ve said this before but I just can’t understand why the vast majority of the ads I see or hear are Rossi’s. It’s getting on my nerves.
What’s up with Gregoire, is she strapped for cash? The way the Gregoire campaign is being run I’d be surprised if they win. Heck, they deserve to lose.
The horribel-est thing about all this is that Gregoire’s inept campaign is hurting Obama.
What idiot is running the campaign? It is bad enough that as governor had ideas about governance that reminded me of Ma Bell, but running a competitive campaign like this is beyond comment.
Look, tx to the ministrations of a number of HA folk I now support Gregoire. Thanks to a whole series of screwy campaign positions taken by Rossi I strongly oppose him. Yet, I try to imagine myself as joe blow and lookie here what do I see …..
1. She got elected in a controversial campaign where charges were lodged .. is she the real governor? Despite the controversy, she has not made an effort to honor Rossi. (I know HA folks will diss me for this, but remember this is how Jo sees it).
‘
2. As governor she has taken no strong stands on the major issues that affect WASTATE …. transportation, education (aside from teacher salaries), WASTATE economy. … was she actually functioning as our leader or as our temporary executive?
This is NOT to say that Ms. G did not do a number of good things, but if I ask at DL what these were, I hear about negotiating agreements with the legislators or other stake holders. She may be terrific at this but such back room activities do not give the public confidence in leadership.
As Jo Blow, looking at Rossi’s adds, I see a very confidant, impressive guy who talks aggressively about stuff. Yeah as SJ I know stuff is vague, but JB does not see that. JB sees a transportation plan, a plan to get us out of the deficit crisis and a leader who affirms that he will do this! ..Oh yeh, a lot of this is in contrast to a feckless Chris G.
As Jo Blow, the most memorable CG ads have her as a little girl or talking generalities or denying that Rossi is telling the truth. Nit much there for Jo to vote FOR?
What to do?
I am not sure that there is much CG can do and at this point would be willing to give odds that she will lose. The only hope, it seems to me, is for CG to take some real positions esp. on issues Rossi’s imbedment in right wing radicalism prevents him from a good response.
Another tack is to build on Obama’s positions:
I have said all of this before, but for the record:
Immigration: This is a huge Eastside issue and EasternWA issue.
Higher Ed The senseless proliferation of Potemkin campuses needs to stop. We need real regional universities, based on the existing state colleges rather than another facade like the one in Tacoma.
Tax Reform No one is going to be happy when the 09 legislature puts a surtax on current taxes, but that will happen. CG could point out that to avert this we need to reform our system to create better long term support for things we all support. A good motto might be “Reform Taxes, Don’t Raise Them.”This could be presented as part of the Obama plan for changing the tax system to be sure $$ stay where they are most productive.
transportation Damnitall WASTATE needs a real plan oR we will lose Boeing for good. As fuel prices rise, good rail transport east-west is becoming essential.This would fit into the Obama plan for rebuilding infrastructure as a way of stimulating the economy
educational standards She should come out for a “son of WASL” program that improves education state wide. This would fit exactly into the Obama plan for master teachers and contract schools.
the war I know very well that this is not a state issue, but Reps vs, Dems is! Moreover, she can tie the war to the economic issues by pointing out that the Reps, having committed a trillion dollars to Iraq have now committed us to another trillion for the domestic bailout. This would help the Obama campaign.
Chris Gregoire and the legislature UNDERspent the biennial budget and ended up with a surplus.
Now, I know you guys looooove to lie. But you jsut sounds stupid when people know the facts are different.
Um, yea, in 2007-2009, so what about 2009-2011?…
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/.....ast19.html
Try picking up a newspaper Daddy Love.
Where is Gregoire spending her campaign money? I see the negative Rossi ads with empty promises on TV all the time. Its no wonder he’s ahead. The amazing thing is is that he’s not further ahead. Rossi is defining Gregoire as an overspender, whether it is true or not. Gregoire has not defined Rossi as the pathelogical liar that he is. If she loses – its because she has not been on the air waves making a case for re-election. I wish she was.
8. Upton spews:
“What’s up with Gregoire, is she strapped for cash?”
No amount of money in the world can defend the indefensible. Daddy Love’s strategy of playing word games ain’t gonna do it either.
The UPCOMING BIENNIUM shows a $3.2 BILLION shortfall currently. And Gregoire sits with her thumb up her ass.
Jo Blow–
She wants to lose. Duhhhhhhhh!
39 years on the dole is enough.
Huge pension.
Lobbyist opportunities.
Wake up…she wants out.
The last thing Washington state needs is a Washington D.C. type conservative to screw up the business and financial climate of our state.
In case you haven’t been paying attention the busniess climate on Wall Street has been crumbling. We are in a financial crisis brought on by conservatives practicing the art of deregulation, the invisible hand of the free market type of financial treason.
Forbes magazine rates our state as the 3rd most BUSINESS FRIENDLY state in the union. That’s up form the #5 spot last year.
By contrast, the Dow is about where it was 8 years ago.
That’s not very pro-business is it?
Alan Greenspan says we CANNOT afford John McCain’s tax giveaway for the uber-wealthy.
It’s time for wealthy Americans to start acting like patriots and pay their fair share of taxes which is more than the rest of us should pay and stop acting like the “me, me generation of Reagan Treasonists.”
@14
I’m one of those 1%’ers who would happily pay more taxes if I got something of value for it. If McCain gets into office I’ll be forced eventually to pay higher taxes to pay debt service and kill some more Iraqi’s since we’re nearly bankrupt now.. Perhaps I’ll be asked to save a few more failed companies. I’m not really interested in paying for the mistakes of the republican party. Nor for that matter am I interested in lining the pockets of their friends. Grover Norquist may want to drown the government in a bathtub, but he and his disciples are going to drown my kids in debt while hollowing out the value of America.
I’d rather pay higher taxes for alternative energy research, increased food stamp programs, more and better inspections by the FDA, tighter enforced regulation by the EPA, and so on. I’d honestly be happy to pay a for special prosecutor to jail a few of the law breakers congress is currently ignoring.
Speaking of congress ignoring things, could someone please post the number of times the Senate has failed to achieve cloture because of republican obstructionism? I’d love to make sure some of my republican friends of something to chew on everytime they say “Democrat controlled congress.”
GBS spews:
Alan Greenspan says we CANNOT afford John McCain’s tax giveaway for the uber-wealthy.
Uhh GBS, Greenspan is married to Andrea Mitchell.
Thanks for the heads up; heading over to Gregoire’s site to show her some love with a $100 donation.
Also, let’s all watch the debate tonight.
Rossi is a cookie cutter Repug knucklehead.
Go Gregoire!
Gobama!