The rematch of the Washington state gubernatorial race has seen Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) holding a small, but consistent, lead over Dino Rossi (“G.O.P. Party”) from early in the year through August. Now, with less than two months to go to the general election, Rossi has “surged” to a modest September lead.
A new Rasmussen poll gives Ross a 52% to 46% lead. The poll of 500 likely voters was taken on September 10 and has a margin of error of ±4.5%.
This is the second consecutive polling lead for Rossi. A few days ago, a SurveyUSA poll gave Rossi a 48.2% to 47.4% lead over Gregoire.
The +6% lead in this new poll is Rossi’s strongest performance since November, 2006:
What is the probability that either Rossi or Gregoire would win an election held now? As usual, I’ll use a Monte Carlo approach to address the question.
After one million simulated elections, we find that Gregoire wins 166,063 times and Rossi wins 825,788 times. If the election was held now, we would expect Rossi to have an 83.3% probability and Gregoire a 16.7% probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes resulting from the simulation.
Given that we have two polls taken back-to-back, it is worth combining the SurveyUSA poll (taken 5-Sep to 7-Sep) with the Rasmussen poll (taken on 10-Sep).
The resulting analysis gives Gregoire 226,762 wins to Rossi’s 766,697 wins. The combined polls suggest that, if an election was held now, Rossi would win with at 77.2% probability and Gregoire would win with a 22.8% probability:
Is the lead real? There is a reasonable possibility it is—the probability of two consecutive statistical outlier polls is pretty small.
On the other hand, consider this: both recent polls also show McCain doing better against Obama than anyone could have reasonably expected. The Rasmussen poll in Washington state gives Sen. Barack Obama a narrow 49% to 47% lead over Sen. John McCain, and A few days earlier, a SurveyUSA poll offered Obama a 49% to 45% lead over McCain:
Both of these polls show a surprising decline in Obama’s standing against McCain—a post-convention decline that is larger than anything I’ve seen in other blue states. So…maybe the lead is real. (More polls, please.)
In any case, given that the polling now has him ahead, can somebody please ask Dino to wipe that sublime grin off of his face? It’s just looking creepy these days.
(Cross posted at Hominid Views.)
Maybe now Gregoire will get off her high horse and start campaigning. Hopefully it isn’t too late.
Darryl–
Kind of makes you wonder the real value of all your past analysis, doesn’t it?
Or even this one.
Look KLOWNS, the bottom-line is your vile attack politics on Palin have had a ripple effect. And Gregoire’s denial of any Budget problems is equally perplexing.
She should have been honest…then rolled out her plan to deal with it (like a real leader in office would do).
$8 BILLION of increased spending by Gregoire.
The economy is flat or in a mini-recession.
But there is NO PROBLEM by Chris.
Voters are sick of leaders unwilling to accept any responsiblity.
Oh and DL…if there is no Budget Problem, please explain why Gregoire is considering shorter work weeks, cuts in employee transportation etc.???
If there was no problem…why would she frantically (too late) do these window-dressing charades???????
Rossi has got to be feeling pretty good. But part of the 6 points is the Republican bounce.
I still believe she wants out….into the fertile fields of a huge pension and Lobbying (like Dotzhauer, Paul Berendt, Booth Gardner aka Strategies 360)
That same poll also sees Dave Riechert beating Burner by 10 points
And as was noted in a different thread below (by me, actually!), Darcy Burner is down 54% – 44% to Reichert, also from a Sept 10 SurveyUSA poll:
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien t/PollReport.aspx?g=382e9c2c-7 fd4-4dab-86eb-eb2ffa14fd9e
That’s a fairly hefty lead (and just caught the previous post!).
Where is silly wabbit now? Eating his Trix?
I’m getting concern over the coattail effect that we had only a month ago.
We’re getting out the vote. As soon as people know what an power-hungry empty-suit Rossi really is, he hasn’t got a prayer.
Everybody – find a way to participate. It’s up to all of us to win this thing.
Doesn’t surprise me too much – Rossi’s been flooding the airwaves with advertising, without any response by Gregoire. She’s got to start spending that money she’s hoarding, and soon. You can’t let a slick real estate peddler like Rossi get away with telling lies every day without calling him on it.
YLB – Dems are toast. The sooner you face up to the better! Just stay home…
@7
I thought we did this already ??????????
She has 4 years under her belt.
The Republicans are in a world of hurt as we been told, looking like someone has lied to us.
I’m voting for I-1000 as I may need it.
@10
More like the other way ’round. Dems in freefall, due to the Palin-effect!
It’s not hard to figure out why Rossi has pulled into the lead. All you have to do is watch TV. Any channel. Rossi is saturating the airwaves with attack ads. Meanwhile, Gregoire ads — if you see them at all — meekly tout a few accomplishments.
Gregoire doesn’t know how to campaign against a lying Republican. Yes, lying. Rossi’s ads contain more bullshit than a feedlot. He’s promising more roads and social services for less taxes. He’s implying Gregoire gave away tribal gambling revenue and pocketed a $650K bribe. Everything Rossi says is a fucking lie — and she’s not challenging him on any of it.
This fucker is hitting below the belt, and she’s got to kick him in the nuts. Hard. Now. And not just by debunking his lying ads. She has to go after him as the greasy little weasel that he is, who helped a felon rob widows and orphans. She has to go over his fake posing as a moderate and attack him as the far-right extremist that he is. His agenda is to dismantle state government and public education, and supersede our constitutional rights with christofascism, and she’s got to attack him for that.
There’s not much time left. Not only are voter impressions firming up, but absentee ballots will soon be hitting mailboxes and the actual voting will be underway in the not very distant future.
By the way, Stephen Branchflower, the state investigator in charge of the Alaska “troopergate” investigation, has submitted a list of witnesses he want’s supoenoed, including Todd Phalen, the governor’s husband.
Lawmakers vote to subpoena Todd Palin
The legislative panel overseeing the investigation approved the list, by a vote of three to two. The two Democrats voted to approve the subpoenas, and were joined by one of the Republican lawmakers. The remaining two Republican lawmakers were rebuffed in their attempt to have the investigation turned over to a personnel commission (staffed by Palin appointees), or to have the investigation put on hold until after the November elections.
Don’t worry! It’s Roger Rabbit to the rescue! He’s Lee Atwater and James Carville all in one bee-yoo-ti-FULL package! Guaranteed to TERMINATE Republicans on sight!
Just stay home…
With all due respect – fuck you.
Tell your pet real estate salesman to pack up his dog and pony show and take it to another state.
@6
Talking about coat tails.
Gov. Palin’s son is in the Striker unit.
Gregior been reported on the HQ flew to Alaska to make a commercial showing her and Gov. Palin sending off her son to Iraq.
My friend works for ABC in NY.
Their getting slammed over the interview and other mainstream media are feeling the same reaction all though a little harder.
We can’t take out two Women and not expect to get slammed after all these years promoting them.
@17: We can’t take out two Women and not expect to get slammed after all these years promoting them.
Bullshit. The objective of feminism is not to give all women a free pass in political discussions.
Gregoire’scampaign is a continuation of her governship. Sort of like racing a perfectly functioning Peius against an utterly impactical Corvette. Guess who wins?
As governor she has been about as visible as the state logo and as uninteresting. In a campaign fought with 30″ sound bytes she has too little of the public’s attention to win.
Gregoire’scampaign is a continuation of her governship. Sort of like racing a perfectly functioning Peius against an utterly impactical Corvette. Guess who wins?
As governor she has been about as visible as the state logo and as uninteresting. In a campaign fought with 30″ sound bytes she has too little of the public’s attention to win.
Rog–
Your frustration with Gregoire is comical…
You are such a zealot, you don’t get it….
SHE DOESN’T WANT TO WIN ROG!!!!
Isn’t it obvious??
She has created a fiscal nightmare and is so beholding to the State Employees and Teachers Union that she has no way out without a huge tax increase.
Rog, you can whine & spew lies about Rossi all you want…but yer gal is “taking a fall”. She has blown it as governor and is blowing this election despite your shallow howling.
Why. She’s going to steal the election again.
Of course she meekly touts her few accomplishments.
Even she’s ashamed by how little she has done, why point it out.
Roger…where have you been. Gregoire had tons of ads before the primary, all negative, all bad, but she spend a lot of money.
Gregoire’scampaign is a continuation of her governship. Sort of like racing a perfectly functioning Peius against an utterly impactical Corvette. Guess who wins?
You’ve got it!! Gregoire is running a scampaign. All the democrats are is one big scam……why not call it for what it is. SCAMPAIGN.
I live in central Washington. I have not heard ONE Gregoire ad on radio, and we have the radio on at work all day long. Rossi’s ads come on several times during the work day. No ads. No publicity. She is doing the same horrible electioneering as she did four years ago. What the fuck is Gregoire’s campaign about, anyway?
Mr. Cynical @ 21
She has created a fiscal nightmare and is so beholding to the State Employees and Teachers Union that she has no way out without a huge tax increase.
Okay? Your boy would also have to sign a HUGE tax increase next year. Somehow I think he would do it with a great big smile on his face …
Oh — I am rating this race as about 1 to 3 points for Rossi at the present time. Unless Gregoire starts spending some of her huge warchest on some EFFECTIVE advertising.
Rich.,.
We agree!
Rich.,.
We agree!
Ah, just to see the utterly warped leftnut mentality that pervades this site.
The leftnuts have nothing to worry about.
We have King County.
Gregoire will have as many votes as she needs to win.
That’s what happens when you pick the biggest hack in the state to run your campaign. She dropped the ball on RTID and now she’s going to lose the Governor’s seat.
The all west side strategy is ridiculous and typical of a campaign that is afraid to cross the mountains.
Well I do have to thank Darryl, for reporting it like he sees it. I love Change, and 44 years of Gregoire seems to point to change.
She has a Pers 1 Pension which will last for life
So she’s set, I’m taxed out
Roger Buddy, check out
http://www.casinochris.com
Nothing more needs to be said
You know it and I know it
She’s Toast this time
Come on Roger Rabbit! Show us your true abilities to TERMINATE evil Republicans by the BUSHelful… No pun intended!
Lets see here:
Change in Washington DC (due to debt, economy) = We need Obama
Change in Washington State (due to debt, economy) = NO, stay the same, vote Gregoire
“I have experience running a campaign” = Obama for President (his words)
“My campaign sucks” = Keep me on for 4 more years, Gregoire.
To the liberal urban idiots out there, you can’t be progressive and argue both sides of the issue. Choose one, Obama or Gregoire. I personally think Obama wins the US, but Gregoire DESERVES to lose this state. The only area where there is an overwhelming Dem majority in this state is the urban Seattle area, and it is a F*****G mess. Nickels and Sims are doing their part to do Gregoire in, and nobody on this board is smart enough to see it.
Have a nice day,
Farmer Fred
Why isn’t Gregoire running any ads? All I see or hear is stuff from Rossi. Heck, the Marner’s 7th evening stretch the other day was sponsored by the Rossi campaign.
I have a problem with the Mariner’s taking campaign ads in that area but again…why isn’t Gregoire running any ads? Does she want to lose?
Hey I have no problem with Gregoire’s incompetent campaign! Go Rossi! Also to liberals – please just stay home and don’t vote. I want to pick up a few extra House seats for the GOP. Hopefully in 2 years we’ll have a solid 7-2 conservative majority in the SCOTUS and strike down abortion! My god! I can just feel the victory!
The comments here are almost nothing but rightwing frothing at the mouth, but liberals are the crazy ones. I love it.
Oh, but now that I’ve said this, I guess I’m a crazy liberal too. What elevated discourse.
27. Richard Pope spews:
“Oh — I am rating this race as about 1 to 3 points for Rossi at the present time.”
Richard–
Didn’t you say 3-5 points for Gregoire a couple weeks ago??
Your prognostications are mighty “fluid” aka meaningless.
Richard–
People do not TRUST Gregoire after increasing spending $8 BILLION. You sued Gregoire yourself, remember?? You also accused her of all kinds of mismanagement when you ran against her. Now you are part of her fan Klub?? Seems a bit loopy.
Why is she better now than when you sued her and attacked her Richard??
Answer–She isn’t.
I think it was a good try to endear yourself to the moonbats. Look at how it’s helped the Republicans!!
36. Upton spews:
“why isn’t Gregoire running any ads? Does she want to lose?”
ANSWER: Yes
She sold out to the Unions & Tribes and has boxed herself in.
Great PERS 1 pension and big lobbying bucks in her future….plus she won’t have to take advice from a$$holes like Goldy!!
You might find this interesting
http://www.columbian.com/artic...../809129967
“Here’s some interesting info from Stuart Elway of Seattle, whose firm has
measured opinions in the Northwest for three decades. According to an Elway poll
released today, Gregoire leads Rossi 48-44 when they are identified as “prefers
Democratic party” and “prefers GOP,” respectively, as listed on the ballot. But
when identified as “Democrat” and “Republican,” Gregoire’s lead grows to 50-41.
This helps explain why, as mentioned before, Rossi hardly ever describes himself
as a Republican. “
Elway??
Go ahead & believe them if it makes you feel better.
Crusader: YOU stay home on Election Day. You love fetuses and the comatose, but you hate the living. The rest of us don’t need school prayer and endless holy war. Find yourself a bunker in the Idaho woods.