We have fallen into a relatively dry spell for polling in the race between Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and real estate salesman Dino Rossi (R). Rasmussen has now released their latest Washington state poll showing Rossi leading Murray 48% to 47%. The poll of 750 likely voters was taken on Tuesday and has a margin of error of 4%.
This poll breaks Murray’s streak of eight consecutive polls with the lead. Before today’s release, the most recently taken poll was also by Rasmussen (17th Oct), and showed Murray with a +3% lead over Rossi (49% to 46%).
Using my usual Monte Carlo analysis employing 1,000,000 simulated elections, we find from the newest Rasmussen poll that Murray wins 415,950 elections to Rossi’s 573,763 wins. Thus, evidence from this poll alone suggests that, if the election had been held last Tuesday, Rossi would have a 58% probability of beating Murray to Murray’s 42% probability of beating Rossi. Given that the winning probability is under 95%, a statistician would tell us that the results suggest a statistical tie. Here is the distribution of simulated election outcomes:
A more comprehensive picture of the election emerges by combining all polls from the past two weeks. Besides the two Rasmussen polls already mentioned, we include the Marist poll taken from 14-17 October on 589 likely voters, giving Murray a +1% lead and a Public Policy Polling poll taken from 14-16 October on 1,873 likely voters and gave Murray a +2% lead. (Other polls in this race started the survey prior to the 14th of October so aren’t included.)
The combined meta-poll has 3,962 “votes” of which 1,920 go to Murray (48.5%), 1,862 go to Rossi (47.0%), and 180 (4.5%) just go away. In the Monte Carlo analysis, Murray wins 746,418 times and Rossi wins 249,788 times. In other words, the four polls suggest that Murray would win an election held over the past two weeks with a probability of 74.9%, and Rossi would win with a probability of 25.1%.
This collection of four recent polls gives the appearance that the race has tightened up a bit (compare this to the 98% win probability for Murray from pooled polls early last week). Keep in mind, however, that three of the four most recent polls are robopolls. As I discussed previously, there is a strong trend of robopolls showing Murray under performing relative to live-interview polls. Perhaps we will get a live-interview poll tomorrow….
Darryl–
I’ve grown to appreciate your analysis.
Thank you.
Land line polling data is decidedly skewed:
* At the end of 2008 17.8% of homes only had landlines
* It took landlines over 90 years to reach 100 million people, cell phones only 17 years
* Over 20% of homes have already ditched landlines completely
* Cell phone usage has risen from 33 million in 1995 to over 270 million as of 2008
It is closer to 35% of homes in Washington state that have ditched landlines completely.
This Rasmussen poll is still using its tight voter screen and not asking if respondents have already voted.
I believe we will hear from 2 live polls tomorrow and expect the Marray camp to leak their internals showing a 4-6 point lead.
Isn’t there going to be a more accurate poll five days from now?
Rasmussen’s polling has leaned far to the right for a long time now…I find that when I move 10% from the GOP to the Democratic side in one of their polls, it’s usually a more realistic take on the actual sentiments out there in voter land.
I have to question how valid polling will be from now until November 2, since a lot of people have voted. I suppose they can include a question for whether the person has already voted, and include them in likely voters. It could be interesting if they included numbers for people who have already voted as a separate statistic.
When I was surveying the surveys, the general opinion was that the further out from an election, the higher the supposed Republican favorable response. As the races tighten up (really close in0 the Rasmussens predict very accurately.
Mistimatic–@5
Then please explain why Rasmussen had the Mass. Senate Race dead-even…and Brown won by 5+ points? Rasmussen was also off on the Virginia Governor Race….underestimating the Republicans margin.
Seems like you folks are guilty of wishful thinking at this point. It’s all you’ve got.
PS–
I said Murray by 2-3 points.
Uh, looking at a one point spread and a four point margin of error would tell you there is a statistical tie as well. Although then you wouldn’t get to run 100,000 computer simulations and bring in old data to try and make yourself feel better about the outcome.
If Rossi was leading by 5 or 6, I may be a bit worried. But by 1 in a Rasmussen? …not so much. Patty is still ahead.
Please mark your ballot against the self-serving alcohol and confectionery industry initiatives, against the BIAW insurance scam, against the BIAW judges, for Patty Murray, for badly needed taxes for education and health care and property and small business tax relief and for school building energy-efficiency improvements. Of course renew your support for progressive state and congressional resprentatives.
Mail in your ballot by next Tuesday!
If you live in King Country you can track your ballot:
https://info.kingcounty.gov/elections/mailballottracking.aspx
The two ballots sent from my household have had their signatures checked. We will be credited with voting!
I love it! Go progressives!
11 – representatives, excuse me.
I have made calls to voters in this race. Washington has a lot of independents and in many ways it reminds me of a West coast version of PA when it comes to Demographics. You have a big city like Seattle that is quite liberal, and it’s metro area, sort of like Philly and it’s suburbs being more left-leaning, but lots of very conservative districts elsewhere in Washington.
I don’t trust Rasmussen at all on this poll, but it is enough to make me worry to step up the campaign effort. The best thing to do this weekend is make phone calls for Murray. She has done a lot for Washington and deserves to get re-elected.
Rasmussen actually had the Mass. senate race wrong. They didn’t poll the week before the senate race. They had Coakley winning by 5. I think Rasmussen was even shocked that Ted Kennedy’s seat went Republican. It was a total disgrace.
You must be new here, Dave Farley.
Cynical endlessly cites the one and only Rasmussen poll in the last two years that was wrong to the Democratic side as “evidence” that they are a Democrat-biased polling firm. The hundreds and hundreds of Ras polls that skew far to the right of everyone else don’t mean a thing as far as he’s concerned.
Just another example that Cynical is a wingnut troll of the
highestlowest order.Rasmussen did not conduct a late poll on the MA special.
538 did an evaluation of polling in the
Pacific Northwest and determined a significant +R error rate for both Rasmussen and Survey USA in the 4-6 point range over the last 8 years.
Doesnt matter if rossi wins or not – the democrats are gonna get hammered on the national scene.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....r_embedded
@18
Surely you’re not that dense? It may mean the difference on which party controls the Senate.
The dirt stain ylb screams
Ahhh yes the dipshit voting service.
This fool wants the income tax for everyone in two years, claiming like the moronic lady on the Q13 debate it won’t be middle class income tax. That’s exactly what the lazy ASS pink panty waste wants. Others to pay his taxes. Well Puddy vehemently disagrees with the dirt stain! Patty Murray needs to go down, now that we learn she’s in bed with lobbyists. No wonder she’s smearing Rossi with that “lobbyist commercial”. The truth comes out.
Puddy against Murray. She wrote the health care bill. She knew all about the $700 fine if you don’t purchase OdumbaCare but won’t admit to it.
Puddy against 1098. An income tax is an income tax. If this crummy legislation passes we’ll pay as the DUMBOCRATS in the WA Legislature will declare another emergency and start taxing the middle class. Look at Connecticut if you need proof. They have had 0% job growth since the CN Legislature passed an income tax 20 years ago. Looks like that’s what WA state wants too.
Puddy against the food tax. Looks like the dirt stain wants it.
What a useless piece of work the dirt stain is.
20 – Note the ugly hateful, resentment driven tone of that comment.
All the justification you need to vote progressive.
Don’t let haters like Puddybud have their way in charting this nation’s direction. His way is BACKWARD.
Fill out your ballot and mail it in. Vote progressive!
Thanks Puddybud!
Of the 10 best states for job growth (Chief Executive Magazine Oct 2010), only two of the ten,Texas and Florida, do not have an income tax. Although Texas has generated more jobs than any other state, Virginia has generated more high-income jobs.
Five of the seven non-income tax states have been losing jobs and industries.
Like lobbying and defense contracting.. Jobs that wouldn’t exist if it weren’t for the Federal Government.
@19
it might..but I dont think it will.
Of course to the dirt stain telling the truth is hate! From the hater 24×7.
25 – Hey what gratitude I get for thanking you for your hate and demonstrating that a future run by the right wing is a future guided by hate.
Some people..
Gratitude? Puddy noticed no refutation. Must be facts slapping you silly again!
You lost your marbuls long ago!
Mary P @ 22
Nice catch. The reality, also, is that Texas is starting to go down. All the oil income is less dependable and Texas statistics will start to reflect what has happened to other states. Alaska will follow.
Nice catch? Of course you can’t trust ol goaty to actually do research.
Hmmm… HubPages says something completely different
Top 10 States for Jobs and Low Unemployment 2010 – 2020
ALSO:
Ranked by the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Council according to every state’s policy climate for small business.
1. South Dakota
2. Nevada
3. Texas
4. Wyoming
5. Washington
6. Florida
7. South Carolina
8. Colorado
Top 10 Best States for Personal Freedom
1. Alaska
2. Maine
3. New Mexico
4. Arkansas
5. Texas
6. Missouri
7. Oregon
8. Idaho
9. Virginia
10. Wyoming
9. Alabama
10. Virginia
The 10 states with the highest unemployment rates, by percentage, are:
1. Michigan 15.1 Stabthemall (Stabenow)
2. Nevada 13.0 Scary Reid (Harry)
3. Rhode Island 12.9 Whitehouse the to Unemployment Line
4. California 12.5 (Call me senator Boxer)
5. South Carolina 12.1 Graham a deal
6. Oregon 11.3 Unemployment Wydens
7. Florida 11.2 Oh No Nelson
8. Kentucky 11.2 Bunning the out
9. Illinois 11.0 Odumba Was Here
10. North Carolina 11.0 Hagan it’s high
Pud,
You didn’t understand what I said at all, did you? On a different note, why do Republicans want to suppress the vote? I thought you folks claim to believe in democracy. Tell me, Pud: (1) why are the Teabaggers out there trying to discourage people from voting; and (2) why does the GOP hope for a low voter turnout? Don’t deny either proposition. Simply, explain why. Then, tell me how the GOP loves democracy. Got it?
Pyrite,
First part of the post not bad. Second part is BS.
FYI…Just Out Survey USA
Rossi 47 Murray 47 Not good news for Murray.
http://www.king5.com/community.....80778.html
Hubpages? And some Right Wing Nutjob site?
Why not use something a little more credible like the Bureau of Labor Statics?
http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm
[Deleted — see HA Comment Policy]
Note that the highest on the list is Nevada with 14.4, not the 13 you sighted. John Ensign (R) Dean Heller (R)
That’s a really stupid game you’re playing, btw.
Note that the highest on the list is Nevada with 14.4, not the 13 you sighted. John Ensign (R) Dean Heller (R)
That’s a really stupid game you’re playing, btw.
Ahhh yes, Puddy was waiting for the first libtardo to jump on hubpages… Michael fit the bill. Their source was http://www.businessinsider.com
Stupid game. Yes facts are stupid games… for libtardos!
Hubpages is headquartered in Pelosi land, San Franfreako. So much for that other argument from Michael. If it doesn’t march progressive it has to be conservative. Puddy is sure Lanny Davis will agree with that attack.
Another fact flying past HA libtardos.
Hmmm… And Michael, the leader of the Senate is Scary Reid (D) from Nevada, that old DUMBOCRAT fossil. Since you claim Nevada is 14.4 all the more reason to dump the stump and reign OdumbaActs. He said don’t go to Las Vegas in 2009. Need to see the quotes moron? Drinking Steve’s Stupid Solution again Michael? Well it is Halloween and you need to get in the “mood”. Wait a minute… you are already in the mood. You possess that liberalism gene!
21. YLB spews:
Wow, I’m sure that got a whole bunch of votes for Pattycakes.
YLB aka Correctnotright aka Rujax is a whackjob with many ugly faces.
What kind of a person would think this type of comment would make a difference in the election? Puddy has totally gotten under his skin. I can see YLB/CNR/Rujax wringing his hands and anguishing after all the trash talk when ImamObaMao’s REGIME got in power.
Disappointed YLB?
YOU are a posterboy of ImamObaMao’s USEFUL IDIOT!
Even California’s Governor Race is tightening–
Election 2010: California Governor
California Governor: Brown (D) Remains Just Ahead of Whitman (R)
Friday, October 29,2010