I wasn’t able to post these results yesterday, but today’s batch of R-71 data has been released. The number of signatures examined is now 110,288, (about 80.1% of the total signatures). There have been 12,983 invalid signatures found, for an uncorrected rejection rate of 11.77%.
The invalid signatures include 10,580 that are not found in the voting rolls, 1,314 duplicates, and 1,089 that did not match the signature on file. There are also 44 signatures “pending” that I am simply ignoring.
Great big caveat: A new third-stage check is now being conducted using the most current voter database on signatures not found in the older database. They have made it through volume 220 of the 510 completed volumes. This means that some of the 10,580 “not found” signatures will be found in the next few days.
The 1,314 duplicate signatures suggest a duplication rate of about 1.82% for the total petition.
Using the V2 estimator, and ignoring the third-stage check, the number of valid signatures is projected to be 121,070, giving 493 signatures over the 120,577 needed to qualify for the ballot. The overall rejection rate should end up at 12.07%. Of course that third stage check will likely add another 500 valid signatures to the total, making qualification highly likely and the rejection rate lower.
Here is a crude history of the projected totals since August 11th. The vertical bars give 95% confidence intervals for the projected number of signatures. The red line shows the minimum number of signatures required to qualify for the ballot.
For some unexplained reason, the rejection rates were increasing through the 20th (leading to a decreased projected number of signatures). The third-stage checking started on the 20th, and I would have expected to see a decreasing rejection rate from that, leading to in increase in the number of valid signatures projected for the petition. Instead we see a flat line for the past three analyses. Perhaps an increasing rejection rate is being canceled by the third-phase check. Who knows.
Whatever the reason, if there are no last minute surprises left to perturb the pattern, R-71 will qualify for the fall ballot.
Thank you Darryl for your ongoing torment.
A reasonable peson might ask you Darryl…”To what end are you pursung this madness with such zeal??”
In other words, so what??
What are you doing to do with these daily reports Darryl??
It appears it has been a mere exercise in futility.
Wouldn’t your time be better spent trying to defeat R-71??
I’m just askin’
Obviously you have a massive amount of free time on your hands….and probably more if you can get Obama to buy you lots of “free stuff” like Health Insurance!!
SJ’s concise Mr. C summary
Mr. Cynical,
‘A reasonable peson [sic] might ask you Darryl…”To what end are you pursung [sic] this madness with such zeal??”’
It’s fun.
“In other words, so what??”
Technically, “so what” is not a paraphrasing of your earlier question.
“What are you doing [sic] to do with these daily reports Darryl??”
Post them on HorsesAss.
“It appears it has been a mere exercise in futility.”
I’m unsure what you mean by “exercise in futility.” That implies a goal that cannot be reached. My goal was to perform a statistical analysis on the samples examined by the SoS office, and post the results here.
Mission Accomplished!
“Wouldn’t your time be better spent trying to defeat R-71??”
No.
“I’m just askin’”
I’m just answerin’
“Obviously you have a massive amount of free time on your hands….”
Yes…obviously.
“and probably more if you can get Obama to buy you lots of “free stuff” like Health Insurance!!”
Huh? If it is “free stuff” then why would Obama have to buy it for me?
And even so, how would that free up any more of my time?
You’ve been hittin’ the bottle mighty hard today, huh, Cynical?
Actually, thanks to people like Darryl, there is a lot of focus on this very close signature count. This focus is revealing some irregularities, such as the double- and triple-checking of rejected signatures but no checking of the accepted signatures. This is doing a great service and might actually lead to a thorough checking of ALL signatures. That would provide an accurate tally and could result in this referendum failing to qualify.
Oh, and another irregularity is that the Secretary of State appears to be accepting signatures from people who registered to vote after signing the referendum, even though they attested that they were registered to vote when they signed the referendum. This is another example of something that would not have come to light had it not been for the attention of people like Darryl.
Thank you, Darryl… I’ve looked forward to your postings every day.
One comment: I don’t think the third-check signature folks have gotten to the point in the signature validation where we saw the error rate increase. I think they are at around the 50,000 mark right now. The error rate increase started later.
“One comment: I don’t think the third-check signature folks have gotten to the point in the signature validation where we saw the error rate increase. I think they are at around the 50,000 mark right now. The error rate increase started later.”
Thanks for the comment. Yeah…my point is that the signatures being kicked back into the pool probably offset the slightly increasing error rate to yield a net change of almost zero. That’s all.
Hey, Darryl, you made the big time.
http://protectmarriagewa.com/
So, was is there a change in collection methods/location types involved in any of this?
I really have no idea, just wondering if there is a gathering saturation point for a given site, then switching collection locations where reliable/known signers provide more errors? Lets say they get everybody at the churches signed, time to hit up people at a random supermarket?
I think it is way past time to stop giving churches free tax ride. They are political activists. No more tax free status.
Steve @ 8
Nope…that couldn’t be me…I have two “r”s.
Okay…maybe it is.
This just shows that God loves Monte Carlo methods.
The Tacomic, a political cartoon from tacoma washington has a valuable jib on Ref 71…
enjoy!
The election officials are RIGGING this election to get this anti-gay initiative on the ballot. How many times have they changed the process to benefit this anti-gay initiative?
Let’s review how election officials have RIGGED the process to benefit the anti-gay BIGOTS that support this awful initiative.
* Election officials LIED to the media, told them the error rate needs to be lower than 14%. In reality it needs to be lower than 12.43%.
* On day five this referendum was NOT going to make it on the ballot then suddenly master fixers came in and “readjusted” the numbers by more than 19% thereby putting this referendum back in play. Gay people raised concerns about the process and guess what the election officials did? Looked at the same rejected signatures again. And you know what the rejected signature percent went down another 10%. Here we have the same rejected signatures looked at at least FOUR times with FOUR massively different numbers
* The rejected signatures of the first 33,000+ are checked at least FOUR times, twice by junior checkers and twice by master checkers. While the accepted signatures, which accounted for 89% of the signatures, are only counted ONCE.
* Husband and wife checkers, Roger and Valerie gave names to outside people to confirm they signed the petition which is ILLEGAL.
* Rejected signatures are NOW going to get ANOTHER look because according to the secretary of state spokesperson voter registration wasn’t “updated.” Election officials say that 12% of those already rejected will put in the accepted pile.
* David Ammons told people concerned with the lopsided checking of the signatures basically gay people ain’t worth looking at the accepted signatures again. That election officials would only take a look at the already rejected ones.
* Once again as the rejected signature percent neared the 12.43% to stay off the ballot election officials changed the rules and would look once again at only the rejected signatures.
* Counting signatures from unregistered people and those that registered to vote after the petition deadline.
* Counting signatures that went over the allowed 20 per petition.
Darryl- Thank you for the ongoing posts, your statistical analysis is fantastic if a bit mind blowing.
Washington families Standing Together http://www.wafst.org the organization working hard to protect the domestic partnership law in Washington State needs volunteers and money. I know many people have been waiting to give until this qualifies…Statistics don’t lie (except sometimes)
http://www.wafst.org needs money now so they can continue to prepare for what promises to be a very ugly fight.
Get involved “all it takes for evil to triumph is for good people to do nothing”.
Together we can win this fight.
VOTE YES on referendum 71
http://www.wafst.org
[Deleted — see HA Comment Policy]
That protectmarriagewa.com site certainly took Darryl’s comments out of context. Do they have any concept of truth?