A variant on Chris Rock’s “Another kid?” routine started playing in my head as I read David Ammon’s post at the SoS blog last night…
“Another change?”
“ANOTHER CHANGE???”
“Get the fuck outta here!”
(* Sigh *)
Look…it really isn’t about the roller coaster ride, where R-71 was losing and then winning and then losing and now winning again. It’s that I thought the Secretary of State’s office understood after the first time we went through this that we wanted real numbers of rejected signatures; not the number of signatures awaiting another check.
In other words, I didn’t simply want a pile of numbers to spin, fold and mutilate for my own amusement. I wanted numbers that had some valid analytical utility. And that means well-defined numbers. Numbers that, when attached to the label “Rejected: Registration Not Found”, gave the number in this category that were…well, actually rejected. That’s not what we got.
Okay…so how do things stand now, with some unknown number of signatures being shuffled from the reject pile to the accept pile? (See this and this for an update; something over 35% of the third-phase checks have been completed, based on progress made through yesterday.)
Today’s batch of R-71 “data” have the total examined signatures at 97,287 (about 70.7%). There have been 11,315 invalid signatures found, for a cumulative rejection rate (uncorrected for the final duplicate rate) of 11.63%.
The invalid signatures include 9,347 that are not found in the voting rolls in at least two check phases, and an unknown number who have made it through a third and presumably final check. There were 1,021 duplicate (or triplicate) signatures found, and 947 signatures that did not match the signature on file. There are also 52 “pending” signatures awaiting signature cards—I ignore these for now.
The 1,021 suggest a duplication rate for the entire petition of 1.78%, down from 1.90% yesterday.
If the numbers were final, we could use the V2 estimator to project the number of valid signatures for the final petition and learn that there should be about 122,642. This gives a 2,065 signature margin over the 120,577 needed to qualify for the ballot. The overall rejection rate is down to about 10.93%. Yesterday this figure was 12.47%, but the phase 3 checks have returned formerly rejected signatures to the accept pile.
A Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated petitions, using the rates we have now, give the measure a 99.11% probability of qualifying for the ballot. Quite a change from yesterday.
Here is our graph showing the results from each data release for the last two weeks:
I am inclined to think this is the worst case scenario for R-71 proponents. That is, as the third-phase check is completed, the measure will gain on the margin of votes needed for qualification.
There is one other twist. Apparently there is some evidence that 7% to 15% of accepted signatures belong in the reject pile. I haven’t tracked down the details, and I have no idea what the SoS office intends to do about this. But, I’m sure the lawyers have their ears perked up! Way, way up.
HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO WRITE IT DOWN? ELECTION OFFICIALS ARE RIGGING THE ELECTION TO GET THIS ANTI-GAY REFERENDUM ON THE BALLOT.
All the rejected signatures have gotten four or five looks.
The accepted signatures only get ONE and it’s FINAL. So those previously accepted signatures that were found to be incorrectly put in that pile are going to stay there. Only the rejected signatures have an opportunity to move.
You don’t even need to do math or modeling because it is blatantly clear that election officials will do ANYTHING to get this anti-gay referendum on the ballot so gay people’s rights get ripped away. Election officials are going to include signatures in the accepted pile that were signed by unregistered people before the petition deadline. CAN YOU SAY RIGGED!!!!?????? Nick Handy, who is running the whole scandalous operation, wrote that it’s state policy. BS!
When’s the deadline for the SOS to have everything officially tallied?
A few points:
1. I don’t think Darryl’s numbers are quite right. I think the SoS has said that about half of the signature shifts are now reflected in the totals for the day. So the projection is not as bad as Darryl makes it out. That having been said, the constant moving of the goalposts is frustrating and depressing.
2. I agree and disagree with Colin. The process is rigged, but I don’t think there is malice or political bias at work. It is a combination of temp-worker incompetence, bureaucratic inertia, and a fairly shocking insensitivity to fairness.
The single, solitary check that the accepted names get is performed by temps. They don’t get even a single look by a full SoS employee. If the temp accepts it, it is deemed valid. When they ran a sample master check on 226 of these “accepted” signatures, they found anywhere from 7-15% were in fact invalid. This was not a random sample, so the whole body of accepted’s may not be as tainted, but if it is only a fraction of this, it would be more than enough to swing the outcome.
This tells you that these temps are not doing a very good job (no shock). But when the temps screw up and wrongfully reject a signature, the master checkers swoop in and check a second, third, or fourth time. No one does this for the accepted’s and Mr. Handy’s defense is that this is the way it has always been done.
This is the definition of arbitrary and capricious. It is really shocking. And I think that this is yet another example of how the shoddiness of our electoral system goes unnoticed until we get to a contest in which exacting accuracy matters. In the past, it would hardly matter if a few hundred or a few thousand signatures got wrongfully accepted, since the proponents would be well over or well under the minimum. This time, every signature matters, so failing to master check the accepted’s when you *KNOW* from the sampling exercise that there are errors in that group is unconscionable.
I hope David Ammons is reading this and feels ashamed of what is going on. Whatever kudos Secretary Reed got for his openness he is losing because of this systemic unfairness.
The election officials want this anti-gay referendum get on the ballot so gay people’s rights are ripped away. They are hoping that gay people will lie down and take it. But if gay people challenge this counting (rigging) they know that the court won’t get to it in time to stop the vote and then once the vote happens and gay people’s rights are taken away they will look like sore losers and basically become demoralized and lose the case those insurely this entire RIGGED process a vail of legitimacy.
@4: I think that’s unfairly ascribing a LOT of intent behind this process. Hanlon’s Razor applies here: don’t attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence or inefficiency.
demokid, election officials are rigging the results. On day five of counting this anti-gay referendum was going to fail to make it on the ballot. Then swoop in “master” fixers who only look at the already rejected signatures and change the numbers a massive 19%. People raised concerns about looking at the rejected signatures twice while the accepted signatures only got one look. And you know what election officials did? They looked at only the rejected signatures again TWICE. So the rejected signatures apart of the first 33,000+ signatures got FOUR looks while the accepted signatures only got one. NONE of the election officials at that times said it was state policy to only give rejected signatures so many chances.
Here we are again right when this anti-gay referendum is about to fail election officials say they are going to change the process by not only counting the rejected signatures again but also accepting signatures from people who were NOT registered to vote before the petition deadline.
Watch Darryl continue to torment himself.
He is climbing the walls and starting to cut himself.
Mr. Cynical @ 7,
“Watch Darryl continue to torment himself.
He is climbing the walls and starting to cut himself.”
This…coming from a right-wing wack-job who hangs out on a liberal blog?
(*Snicker*)
Why do tards care so much about R-71? It’s about guys who want other guys shit on their dicks for gods sake! EWWWWWWWWW.
@mark
That’s true, but we’re talking about your dad and your parish priest here. So we have to do our best.
Best of luck starting 7th grade in September!
Love,
Steve
All of a sudden the tens of HA Happy Hooligans are concerned about legit and non-legit signatures? Funny, it didn’t seem to matter when the illegitimate Queen stole the first Governor’s election with her good buddy Dean “Incompetence” Logan and Co., who is now under investigation for voter fraud in L.A. County. What goes around comes around….
Definitions: Hypocrisy
Noun
1. An expression of agreement that is not supported by real conviction.
2. Insincerity by virtue of pretending to have qualities or beliefs that you do not really have.
Source: Webster’s online.
And for sniveling little shit Darryl and his other brother:
Douche Bag
Noun
1. A small syringe with detachable nozzles; used for vaginal lavage and enemas.
SLANG: An ignorant, worthless person.
Source: Webster’s online.
Later all, & talk to the hand! :)
Mark1 @ 11,
Awwwww…isn’t that cute. HA’s own little SORE LOSER is back.
I guess you haven’t made it to the shrink yet, huh?