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PPP Poll: Rossi 50%, Murray 48%

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Public Policy Polling has released their final poll of the election season in the Washington Senatorial race. The poll, taken from 29-31 October on as sample of 2,055 likely voters (giving a 2% MOE) has Sen. Patty Murray trailing real estate peddler Dino Rossi 48% to 50%.

While this is only the fourth of twenty polls taken over two months that has Rossi ahead, Rossi has led in two of the past four polls, and Murray has only led in one of them.

A Monte Carlo analysis of the PPP poll shows Murray winning 256,364 simulated elections to Rossi’s 738,506 wins. The poll provides evidence that Murray would win with a 25.8% probability to Rossi’s 74.2% probability. Since Rossi’s winning probability is under 95%, the result is, technically, a statistical tie. But don’t be fooled…Rossi has an advantage by this poll, as is clear in the distribution of simulated election outcomes:

PPPLateOct

A more complete picture of the election outcome comes by examining all polls taken over the past two weeks. There have been six polls conducted since 17 October until 31 October, and it includes all polls taken since ballots were mailed to most Washington state voters. The metapoll includes 5,371 responses, of which 2,583 are for Murray and 2,582 are for Rossi.

No kidding! They are literally tied as they can be, given the odd number of respondents who chose to “vote.” Can you say “recount!” and “paging Judge Bridges”? I think it is fair to say that this race has seen movement over the past month that has favored Rossi in dissolving Murray’s clear lead.

I’ll end this post with the raw polling picture over the past two months. In a race so close, different people will squint at this graph, view it through different ideological or partisan filters, dump polls they don’t “like”, and come to different conclusions. In fact, this race is, based on any individual poll or based on every poll taken in the past two weeks, utterly indistinguishable from a tie.

Senate01Oct10-01Nov10Washington1

Comments

  2. 2

    Darryl–
    I really don’t think this will come down to litigation. I think Murray will win by 2-3 points. The unions have poured incredible financial and manpower resources into this race…plus Rossi, although right on all the issues, lacks the enthusiasm to close the deal…even though Patty Murray has no charisma either. Substance & voting records got Rossi this close. He simply needed a bit more charisma to close the deal.
    Johnson WI-R has both and is crushing Feingold, a 3-termer like Murray.

    I hope I’m wrong about Rossi, but I think I have had it pretty well sized up for awhile. His hope is Murray rarely hits 50%.
    Oh and the Didier impact is non-existent.
    Will explain post-election.

  3. 3

    Mark your ballot for Patty Murray, against self-serving industry sponsored initiatives, for more money for schools, health care and property tax/small business tax relief.

    Have it postmarked by Tuesday!

    Thanks for believing, supporting and participating in our democracy!

  4. 4

    Darryl–
    Are you going to monitor the East Coast Race results tomorrow night and use them to modify your projections. FoxNews has apparently developed a model to look for late-breaking trends…for whatever that is worth. They claim several East Coast Races will be their barometer for later races like ours. Will be interesting to watch.

    Here is a late-breaker…at least in the polls. The R was way, way behind…and is now 2 points up.
    Monday, November 01, 2010

    Republican Thomas Foley now holds a sliver of a lead over Democrat Dan Malloy in the final Rasmussen Reports survey of the 2010 Connecticut governor’s race. It’s the first time Foley’s been ahead since April.
    The Republican now earns 48% support from Likely Voters in Connecticut, while Malloy gets 46% of the vote. One percent (1%) prefer another candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
    The race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.
    A week ago, Malloy, an ex-mayor of Stamford, held a 49% to 46% lead over Foley, a wealthy businessman and former U.S. ambassador to Ireland. LINK Malloy has consistently been the front-runner in surveys dating back to May, with support ranging from 38% to 50%. Foley, in those same surveys, has earned 33% to 45% of the vote. But Foley has been closing the gap between the two over the past month.

  5. 5

    Mr. Cynical @ 1,

    Thanks for pointing out the FOX News poll. I’ll do an analysis that includes that race later today. Perhaps we’ll get another poll to toss in in the mean time….

    Mr. Cynical @ 4,

    I’ve not been doing systematic analyses on any races besides WA Sen.

  6. 6

    3. YLB spews:

    Mark your ballot for Patty Murray, against self-serving industry sponsored initiatives, for more money for schools, health care and property tax/small business tax relief.

    Have it postmarked by Tuesday!

    Thanks for believing, supporting and participating in our democracy!

    Bonehead in his mom’s basement aka YLB–
    Everytime I read one of your phony courteous pleas, I am reminded that you actually believe more than a few dozen folks read the comment section!! You are a lunatic.
    And of those that read the comment section, I would venture to guess 100% have already voted!

    Puddy, this KLOWN is more pathetic than we give him credit for. I think arschloch is actually too light. I studied the term over on Wikipedia http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arschloch

    It’s undoubtedly on the right track.

  8. 8

    I am reminded that you actually believe more than a few dozen folks read the comment section!!

    Sure gets your goat doesn’t it?

    Ooops pun not intended! Or maybe it should be!

    Have fun KLOWN!

  9. 9

    Myth: Progressives do better in elections when thee is a high voter turnout.

    Mythbuster: The 2010 election year is expected to be one of the highest non-presidential election year turnouts in nearly 4 decades – the conservatives are expected to win by huge margins all across the nation.

  10. 10

    Cynical @ 2

    You tend to be overly cynical, and your predictions may very well turn out to be WRONG. In any event, the PPP poll had Rossi ahead by two points over Murray, with a five point lead among the people who had already mailed in their ballots.

  11. 11

    Amelia Earhart was expected to arrive at Howard Island, too.

    The Titanic was expected to arrive in New York.

  13. 13

    It seems to me the Washington poll showed Murray had a lead with those who had already voted. 538 has pointed out that weekend polls are often unreliable. I would think Halloween is a particularly tough polling weekend. Given Rasmussen’s traditional GOP bias in Washington, I still think Murray wins.

  15. 15

    You are a lunatic.

    I agree that someone who has pasted the good news from Rasmussen Reports side by side with calling President Obama the names he heard on the Limbaugh show almost 700 times here in the HA comment threads since 1/1/2009 would qualify as a bit unbalanced.

    That person is YOU Mr. Klynical.

  17. 17

    Richard–
    Did you see this article out today–
    Monday, November 01, 2010

    The day before midterm elections, the number of Americans who identify themselves as Democrats has hit its highest level since April.
    In October, 36.3% of American Adults identified themselves as Democrats. That’s up almost two points from last month and up about a point from two months ago. But the number of Democrats is still down four percentage points from October 2008 and down two points from October 2006.
    At the same time, the number of Republicans remained relatively stable, with 33.4% who identify as Republican. In September, 33.1% of Americans identified themselves as Republicans, and in August, 33.8% identified with the GOP. The number of Republicans in the country is little changed since October 2008 and up two points since October 2006. The number of Adults not affiliated with either major party is now at 30.3%. That’s the lowest level measured in 2010.

    Then it was followed by this article which shows the enthusiasm gap and lack of support by Independents nationally for the Dems–
    Monday, November 01, 2010

    Republicans have opened a 12-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 31, 2010. New Rasmussen Reports polling finds that 51% of Likely Voters nationwide plan to vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 39% are opting for the Democrat.
    If these results hold, it could lead to the election of more Republicans to Congress than at any time since the 1920s.
    With just one day left until Election Day 2010, these new numbers reflect an increase in the Republican advantage from nine points in each of the preceding two weeks.
    Republicans lead by 20 among men and by six percentage points among women. They lead by 20 among senior citizens and by 31 among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties.
    But propelling the GOP more than anything else is a huge enthusiasm gap. In a nation with more Democrats than Republicans, the Rasmussen Reports Likely Voter sample projects that 38% of those who actually vote will be Republican. Just 36% of voters are projected to be Democrats.

    It kind of makes sense when you think about it.
    The number of Dems is DOWN slightly from 2008 and the number of R’s is up…I don’t think any reasonable person would debate this.
    It comes down to the Independents and enthusiasm of your base as always.
    This is where the Dems are in deep trouble….although I agree it is different state-by-state. That’s why I think Murray will end up winning by 2-3 points.

  18. 18

    You missed a few of the latest polls:

    Fox/Pulse 10/30 Murray 49; Rossi 47
    YouGov 10/30 Murray 50; Rossi 47
    Marist 10/30 Murray 49; Rossi 48

    Marist used both landline and cell phone samples in live phoning, Fox/Pulve is a IRV same methodology as Rasmussen and YouGov is online polling. (I was actually one of the participants in the most recent YouGov poll)

    Adding these 3 to your Monte Carlo improves things for Murray a bit but it still is uncomfortably close and probably still comes down to King County turnout.

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