PPP Poll: Murray 49%, Rossi 47%

Washington state voters are, seemingly, under a polling blitzkrieg. Today another poll is released in the race between Sen. Patty Murray (D) and real estate salesman turned foreclosure opportunity seminar motivational speaker Dino Rossi (R).

This poll comes from Public Policy Polling (PPP) and shows Murray leading Rossi 49% to 47%. The poll was taken from 14th to the 16th of October on a sample of 1,873 likely Washington voters. The margin of error is 2.3%.

PPP makes an interesting observation about the race (emphasis added):

There’s a pretty strong argument that the Washington Senate race is the most stable in the country: PPP finds Patty Murray leading Dino Rossi 49-47, basically identical to our July poll of the race that found her ahead 49-46.

The reason for the stability is that voters know these candidates, they know what they think of them, and nothing they’ve heard during this campaign has changed those opinions in one direction or the other. In July Murray’s approval rating was 46/45. Now it’s 47/48. In July Rossi’s favorability was 43/48. Now it’s 44/49.

Compare this with yesterday’s Rasmussen lede (emphasis added):

Democratic incumbent Patty Murray is barely ahead of Republican challenger Dino Rossi now as the lead seesaws again in Washington’s neck-and-neck U.S. Senate race.

The fact is, Murray has now led in the last seven of the eight polls taken in October with margins from +1 to +13 and with an (unweighted) average of just over +5%. Take a look at the entire polling history:

Senate19Sep10-19Oct10Washington1

Note to pollsters and reporters…that meme about how close and back-and-forth this race is? Yeah…that last’s month meme based on a tiny blip in the data.

Note: The graph in the first version of this post included a poll by DSCC. I’ve reposted the graph without that poll.

Update: At Hominid Views I do some statistical analysis of the poll and further examine the differences between robopolls and live-interview polls in this race.

Comments

  1. 2

    spews:

    Signature verification begins upon receipt of the ballots.

    As I understand it, they even feed verified ballots into the counting scanner prior to the deadline. What they don’t do, supposedly, until 8pm on November 2 is look at the counter’s output.

  2. 5

    Daddy Love spews:

    Yep. The discussions are all pretty much academic now. Patty’s going back to the Senate, and Dino Rossi is going back to Sammamish, where he will bitterly sit out the 2012 governor’s race between Rob “take away your health care protections” McKenna and a qualified candidate.

  3. 7

    Steve spews:

    @4 Nice find, YLB. Oh, and that’s a great screen name.

    @6 Have you noticed that the KLOWN’s been acting a little more strange than usual? I fear for the goat.

  4. 8

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Reasonable analysis Darryl.
    Some of your KLOWNmates are predicting a 12-point Murray win based on…something that came outta their asses.
    Rossi lacked the Charisma edge to push him over the hump against an entrenched bureaucrat with a strong background in …
    Murray received her Bachelor of Arts degree in physical education from Washington State University in 1972. She was a preschool teacher for several years and taught a parenting class at Shoreline Community College from 1984 to 1987

  5. 10

    Steve spews:

    Still, she knows one hell of a lot more than Lostinaseaofshit, which explains why we laugh our asses off at his dumbfuck comments.

  6. 11

    proud leftist spews:

    Steve
    I have noticed that Cynny has been acting even more strange than usual lately. I had thought the development was medication-related, but certainly it could be goat-related. I can’t believe that O’Donnell video. No one that stupid should be running for the United States Senate. And, to think she considers herself a strong proponent of the Constitution. Did you see her face when the law students started laughing at her? She appeared to think they were laughing with her. Utter, utter idiocy.

  7. 12

    spews:

    with a strong background in

    Serving the people as WA State legislator.

    Not that a mom in tennis shoes shouldn’t be able to run for office and win the confidence of her constituents over the years as Murray has done.

    Still the lackeys of the right piss away millions to lie and denigrate, championing a hollow shill who’ll serve entrenched wealth and privilege body and soul.

  8. 14

    MikeBoyScout spews:

    Rossi supporters, as the polls show this race is clearly a toss-up that could go either way.

    Now is the time for YOU to contact the Chamber of Commerce and Crossroads GPS and demand they IMMEDIATELY quadruple their ad buys in the state.

    As the debates and campaign have shown, Helmet-Hair-Hamlet can’t do this on his own. He needs that out of country state money to pour in.

    Do your part, and demand and immediate quadrupling of spending NOW!

  9. 16

    masaba spews:

    @9

    It’s an indictment of the Republican party that they would sponsor a candidate for a major national election who is this ignorant of the basic principles upon which this country is founded.

  10. 17

    Steve spews:

    @11 “Did you see her face when the law students started laughing at her? She appeared to think they were laughing with her. Utter, utter idiocy.”

    Oh, yes! That was so funny. These ignorant teabaggers are so much more hilarious than the old school Republicans.

  11. 18

    Steve spews:

    @15 Indeed. Their own whackiness predates what is now on display on the national stage. Now if we could only laugh them off the stage! Sigh! But like you noted, they’re just too damned ignorant to even realize that that the laughter is directed at them.

  12. 19

    Steve spews:

    @15 Speaking of our trolls, Lost was losing it last night, and now the KLOWN is whacked out today. I’d think that, with a win or two for them looming on the near horizon, our trolls would find a way to be a little more, um, upbeat. Not that I expect that they’ll ever grow a sense of humor.

  13. 20

    headless lucy spews:

    re 8: So … you think Patty Murray has more charisma than Dino Rossi?

    That is a very sad state of affairs for the Rossinator — who does, however, score quite high for the ‘Snerd Factor’.

  14. 21

    Steve spews:

    @13 “Yeah he’s taken to imagining ME as a goat.”

    He really is acting kind of strange, even for a Psycho-KLOWN. I wonder if some misfortune might have befallen that poor, hapless goat of his.

  15. 22

    spews:

    N in Seattle @ 2

    That is my current understanding too.

    Signature verification, scanning, and “electronic adjudication”.

    Adjudication is when they’re changing the votes recorded in the database, to correct for voter intent.

    In order for the votes to be “adjudicated”, they have to first be counted. How is that not tabulation? Which is technically illegal before election day. And jurisdictions have been busted doing “sneak peeks”.

    I maintain the “final tally”, which is just a different report, is just a fiction. A database is a database. So the difference between counting and not counting is running a query?

    I have been told, but have not verified, that interim partial tallies are done daily. Which makes sense. How else would you detect if the database has been tampered with?

    But what do I know? I only develop software for a living.

  16. 23

    headless lucy spews:

    re 22:

    But what do I know? I only develop software for a living.

    Maybe you should get off your fat ass once in a while.

  17. 24

    correctnotright spews:

    @8: hmm, and Reichert has an AA and not even a bachelors degreee – but I don’t remember you talking about that. Or the fact that Reichert can’t even remember the basics about the banking crisis….

    While Patty Murray clearly understands the issues….do you have just a little bit of a double standard? While you are at it – let’s compare the education of Sarah Palin and President Obama – see I think you don’t want to go there…..

    I also think you forgot to mention that Patty Murray has 18 years experience as Senator and Dino Rossi has no national experience. Oh yeah, Murray also served on the school board and the Washington State Senate prior to being a senator…but Klynical conveniently left that out. Murray has a national reputation of fighting for veterans rights and her dad was a disabled veteran. Rossi has a repuation for lecturing rich people on how to make money off poor people with foreclosed homes and taking money and support from rich guys like the Koch brothers.