SurveyUSA released the first poll of the season in the 8th CD race between Darcy Burner and Rep. Dave Reichert.
The poll surveyed 679 likely voters on June 16th and 17th, and showed Reichert leading Burner 51% to 45%.
As usual, I try to assess these poll results by a simple Monte Carlo analysis. I simulated a million fictitious elections between Burner and Reichert, using the observed percentages and the number of people polled.
Reichert won 948,339 of the elections and Burner won 48,199 times. In other words, the poll results suggest that, for an election held right now, Burner would have a 4.8% probability of winning the election and Reichert would win with a 95.2% probability.
Here is the distribution of outcomes (percentage of votes) from the million simulated elections (Reichert victories are those to the left of the red “tie” line, Burner victories are those to the right):
At risk of coming off as just another amen blogger, the poll results don’t strike me as particularly bad for Burner. Yeah…she is -6% down, but Reichert, as the incumbent, starts out with the advantage. The poll’s cross-tabs look reasonably positive for Burner. Among other things, of those who said they could change their mind, 50% were Reichert supporters and 39% were Burner supporters. Also, Reichert holds 35% of the pro-choice vote. It’s hard to imagine that the Burner campaign won’t make in-roads into that group.
This poll comes on the heels of massive mailings of campaign flyers franked informational pieces from the Reichert campaign congressional office. The Burner campaign, to my knowledge, has not made any media purchases.
Furthermore, Reichert has recently gotten a lot of well-deserved publicity for eco-friendly votes. I say “well deserved” because, clearly, Reichert’s handlers have developed a brilliant strategy that has rendered the local media stupifyingly blind to Reichert’s strategy of full participation in Republican obstructionism in Congress during procedural votes, only to switch his vote when the results are certain passage. Daniel Kirkdorffer has meticulously documented this rather cynical strategy. It is hard to say whether Reichert’s people will be able to maintain their spell over the media through November.
(Cross-posted at Hominid Views.)
1. Not new news. I already posted this on HA yesterday.
2. While your comment about “change mind” is valid, you conveniently ignore Reichert’s 13% to 7% crossover and 52% to 39% with Independents.
Gotta love how you spin this. I don’t recall you giving Gregoire the same “incumbent handicap.”
Not that this poll or any other really means anything significant (outside of maybe trend or segment analysis, but…).
Lies, damned lies & statistics.
Big ups on ya Darryl for having the guts to comment on this (which is why you’re my fave HA writer).
But we all know polls don’t mean jack and their real purpose is to influence opinion and not measure it.
Reichert will lose – he can easily be tied to Bush (and his voting record and false independence will be exposed). Guess where bush is now? 25% approval! A new low for a President. What an embarassment.
Oh, and where are Bush and McCain now with the “don’t talk to bad guys stuff” that bush started in Israel? Guess the Israelis ignored him a negotiated with Hamas and Syria. Republicans are such idiots…
Wait until the debates – Riechert will either run or look like a fool when he opens his mout – either way he loses.
At risk of coming off as just another amen blogger, the poll results don’t strike me as particularly bad for Burner.
—————–
I’m not so sure about this. In view of all of the issues Burner would seem to have to work with – Iraq, the economy, a highly unpopular president of the same party as Reichert – one might reasonably expect the results to be reversed.
And how is it voters and the “media”(who is . . .?) is blind to Reichert’s strategy, but not Mr. Kirkdorffer and a hand full of others?
That said, there’s a lot of time left in the campaign and these polls can shift substantially.
Wait until the debates – Riechert will either run or look like a fool when he opens his mout – either way he loses.
Forget the debates. I cant wait until Darcy’s concession speech. The way she blubbers is so precious. heheheheehehe
As I mentioned in another post:
Burner Campaign Runs on Blind Optimism and Rainbows
http://nakedloon.com/politics/.....-rainbows/
It would be funnier if it wasn’t so true.
What’s even funnier is this Darcy promo photo:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/d.....184508743/
The Real Mark @7- It would be funnier if it was actually funny, and it didn’t border on slander given it attributes quotes to a candidate that were not said by the candidate.
DK @ 8
Satire. Think The Onion. Look it up sometime.
Unless, of course, you’re saying that it hits a little too close to home??!!
IRAQ, IRAQ, IRAQ…
People get the kind of government they deserve. Every voter in the 8th should listen to at least an hour of Sheriff Hairspray talking. Two, three hours tops.
Not hard to do. See CSPAN, youtube, TVW, other places.
If they still want him, they surely deserve him.
No wonder McCain is 15 points behind President Obama. FlipFlop McCain hasn’t always been proud of America.
Check out the WHO DOESN’T LOVE AMERICA video on
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19599749/
If Creationists Ran The Public Schools …
The Associated Press reports:
“COLUMBUS, Ohio (June 20) – … School board members voted 5-0 to fire Mount Vernon Middle School science teacher John Freshwater ….
“Freshwater used a science tool known as a high-frequency generator to burn images of a cross on students’ arms ….
“Other findings show that Freshwater taught that carbon dating was unreliable to argue against evolution.”
(Quoted under fair use.)
Roger Rabbit Commentary: I don’t have anything against Christianity. Hell, I’m a Christian myself! (Although my parents were feral nativists, I became a feral Christian.) For that reason, I believe even a stupid jerk like Mark the Deadbeat can be saved.
But not everyone wants my religion, and when a public school teacher shoves it on students without the parents’ knowledge or permission, that violates their constitutional rights.
People who don’t respect others’ constitutional rights shouldn’t be teachers, cops, or presidents. Otherwise, none of us will have any rights and we’ll be constantly fighting civil wars and killing each other over who gets to tell everyone else what to do, like they’re always doing in Africa.
The Real Mark @9 – I know what satire is, and the Onion is funny. That article was not, and the quotes were not satirical.
The Real Mark @9, for the same reason that Fox “Satire” News show was not.
GEE CHECK OUT THE TEETH ON THAT DUDE.HE NEEDS TO SEE A DENTIST.
@7
I like rainbows!
People who don’t respect others’ constitutional rights shouldn’t be teachers, cops, or presidents.
I wish. Liberals should only be commedians and painters.
It will be interesting to see if Hair Spray was getting a little bump out of recent news coverage.
@7
I just added Darcy as a Flickr contact.
@15 and 17
Seeing as how you’re both a couple of incredibly stupid fascist twits, perhaps the two of you should hook up. Then someday you could tell your insipid, home-skooled spawn how you met here at HA.
20
Or if you really hate your kid send them to the Seattle public screwls so they can become a drooling,drivel spouting, American hating, commie liberal. roof roof.
A case of Jim Beam 1/2 gallon for $16.50 a bottle. A HP laptop with 6 gigs of ram $999.99. A flat screen 66 inch TV with sound system & all the bells and whistles $4600.00. Buying it all in Oregon with no sales tax…priceless!
Listen to Jane – hates government but wants to suck off the government tit by send kids to public schools. Hates government but wants to suck off the government tit by driving on roads that the GOP doesn’t want to pay for. Hates government but is glad to give it money to bomb little kids in Iraq into next week.
Typical GOP hypocrite. That 15 point lead for President Obama got u nervous Janey? HE HE!
3. correctnotright spews:
‘Reichert will lose – he can easily be tied to Bush….’
And Ditzy, I mean Darcy, is still running against Bush, her being her; she has not yet realized that he is out soon. It’s OK, that’s what bumbling, air-headed, blondes do. Takes them awhile to process new information. Ummmmm….shiney!
Mark1
Misogyny. Ever heard of that? Look it up in the dictionary, if you have one. You are a misogynist. So, you really need to embrace your inner self and know who you are, limpdick.
PL @ 25 “Misogyny… Look it up…”
No, YOU look it up. Where did Mark1 make ANY reference to gender?
Ditzy? Name-calling, but not gender-specific.
Still running against Bush? True
Related comments? True
Bumbling? Likely true, but not gender-specific.
Air-headed? Likely true, but not gender-specific.
Blonde? Again, not gender-specific.
In fact, Mark1’s descriptions could also apply to Jeff Daniels and his character from Dumb & Dumber.
Mark’s only good at describing the last cock he sucked.
Kudos to you Darryl. I look forward to seeing you at an upcoming DL.
Considering the “readership” of this blog and the continual negative tone toward Reichert, I think it’s amazing the “new” tone of Donkey in this thread based on this poll.
Google: “Reichert site:horsesass.org” and enjoy da review of the leftist manifesto. Happy reading.
Puddy coined a term on this blog when you all went googoo gaga over the potential endictment of Tom DeLay – “premature ejaculation”. This was remembered by Puddy when I read bybygoober@27. Such a rocket scientist he is, spawn of Pelletizer. I know he makes is daddy (Pelletizer) proud.
Google: “DeLay site:horsesass.org”
Could this be another moment in the annals of HA histoire?
TRM – Are you saying Proud Leftist can be ditzy? Naaaahhh, say it ain’t so………………
Now I totally agree with you on bybygoober.
2 DW
No, Don, “we all” know nothing of the sort. You should learn about scientific polling.
Listen to Jane – hates government but wants to suck off the government tit by send kids to public schools. Hates government but wants to suck off the government tit by driving on roads that the GOP doesn’t want to pay for.
I would never a kid to public screwl (Especially SPS) if I had a choice. Choice… now that’s a word you donkeys only mention when killing babies or old farts.
I love it that rossi is too embarassed to even run as a republican – he is listed as GOP and won’t even use the word republican. Can it be because that the republican brand now stands for:
Lying about Iraq
corruption and influence peddling by Abramoff and other lobbyists
Illegal spying
Torture (but saying we don’t)
No respect for the constitution
Bush approval rating: New low of 25%
Last Bush talking point: In Israel, he said we should not talk to bad guys. Guess who the Israelis just negotiated with? Hamas, Lebanon and Syria – so much for Bush/McCain so-called foreign policy ideals. Idiots!
NAMBLA @ 32
That’s right, you DO know nothing.
That poll may be statistically significant, but at this stage of the game, it means very, very little (with the exceptions mentioned earlier). It is a snapshot of right now. Even Darryl acknowledges the relative insignificance to November.
Let’s not forget that headless lucy, the HA resident racist, is also a teacher. Can you imagine what damage he is doing to innocent little children.
Glad to see you admit you’re on the government tit Jane. It’s good of you to see and admit you are a hypocrite.
Now check out the rambling of puddylick, CHRISTIAN super hero – that is if you want an example of why anyone I know thinks Christians are asswipes.
Hey Puddylicker – how’s it feel to see a REAL black man command a 15 point lead over that traitor FlipFlop McCain?
Must have you thinking about where your loyalty should be.
Didn’t Reichert win by a similar margin last time? Considering the current state of the Republican brand, you would think Burner would be doing better than this. This is very disappointing.
Can it be because that the republican brand now stands for:
Lying about Iraq
corruption and influence peddling by Abramoff and other lobbyists
Illegal spying
Torture (but saying we don’t)
No respect for the constitution
Bush approval rating: New low of 25%
—————–
Yet it didn’t hurt Reichert in the recent polling for what that’s worth . . .
35 TRM
If someone waved a magic wand and made all straw men disappear, you would have nothing to say.
If only I had claimed that the poll predicted the election, or anything else of relevance to your comment. Instead, I pointed out that only someone ignorant of scientific polling or a liar would claim that polls “don’t mean jack” or that their “real purpose is to influence opinion.”
Which interestingly enough, you also pointed out when you mentioned correctly that a poll is a “snapshot of right now.”
We both agree that Don Ward is wrong. Outside of that, you are as completely deceitful as ever.
Darcy IS very talented but she does nt understand the value of local politics. Her campaign is as if she is
running against Bushrunning s Hillary’s running materunning for the White House.On local issues, she comes across as having has little interest.
This is a mistake. Reichert is a GOB and some folks will vote because he is local and familiar. Moreover, I suspect enough folks are afraid of an overwhelming Demo majority that a moderate Rep may be attractive.
Here’s Darcy explaining why Reichert is ABSOLUTELEY the WRONG person to be in Congress right now. Reichert voted FOR the telecom immunity that allows telecoms to provide the means for illegal, warrantless interception of YOUR private communications without suffering any penalty AND shields our thug of a president from having his illegal activities uncovered further during the course of the lawsuits.
If you believe in the Fourth Amendment, vote for Darcy Burner.
If you believe in the rule of law for every person, including the president, vote for Darcy Burner.
If you can manage somehow to love our country and its Constitution at the same time, vote for Darcy Burner.
If you wet your pants every time someone says “terrorist” and believe that installing an unaccountable dictator will “keep you safe,” vote for Dave Reichert.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPpXSx5cugM
4 SJ
Wrong. She is just tying Reichert to the Bush policies he has faithfully and slavishly supported.
Goldstein,
You such a damn tight ass manipulative little asshole. But then you are THE Horses ass.
Daddy Love,
Obviously you haven’t gotten any lately. Is that why you are such an asshole?
bybygoober – You wouldn’t know a real black man if he walked up to you. You are afraid of meeting black people even in public. You ran like a coward when I told you to meet me in Seattle. Remember per some leftist Moonbat!s I live in Mason county. It was a long drive for me.
McCain, Reichart, and Rossi have a similar problem. They still need that 25% base which would vote Republican if the devil himself were running.
But that same base thinks the war in Iraq has been a great success, the economy is going just fine, and the only thing wrong with the violations of the Bill of Rights is that Bush hasn’t gone far enough to lock up domestic critics and throw away the key. They also are convinced that they can still cut taxes by 50% or more, especially at the higher levels, with no real effect.
But the rest of the voters know differently. So they will continue to try to say one thing to the 25% wingnut base, and something entirely different to everyone else. They will try to distance themselves from Bush as “independents”, yet embrace the money-raising potential & support of the wingnut base.
I’m sceptical they can pull it off. Perhaps before YouTube and the ability to disperse video rapidly, it could be done. But now????