Survey USA released a new poll for the new WA first congressional district today. The poll of 456 voters likely to vote in the August primary, and 661 registered voters (for a general election match-up), was taken on the 29th and 30th of May, surveys the open congressional seat and more.
For the Washington primary, the top two winners are Republican John Koster and Democrat Darcy Burner. Burner leads the crowded Democratic field by +10%:
- John Koster (R) 46%
- Darcy Burner (D) 19%
- Undecided 16%
- Laura Ruderman (D) 6%
- Suzan DelBene (D) 4%
- Steve Hobbs (D) 4%
- Larry Ishmael (I) 4%
- Darshan Rauniyar (D) 1%
The sample size for the primary poll is rather small. Nevertheless, we can make some inference about who will be Koster’s opponent in November. Darcy Burner has a little over 1/2 the “votes” (88 of 173) among those who chose someone other than Koster. A Monte Carlo analyses gives Burner a 56.3% probability of advancing to the general election. There is a 43.7% chance that Ruderman, DelBene, Hobbs, Ishmael or Rauniyar will advance instead of Burner.
The not-so-good news for Democrats comes from the head-to-head results of each Democrat against Koster:
- Koster leads Burner 48% to 37%
- Koster leads DelBene 49% to 32%
- Koster leads Ruderman 49% to 32%
- Koster leads Hobbs 47% to 31%
- Koster leads Rauniyar 50% to 28%
In all cases, the poll results suggest that Koster has something over a 95% probability of winning. And that is not good news for Democrats.
There were a couple of other races that shed light on this poll. Mitt Romney leads President Obama in the district 45% to 44%. And Rob McKenna leads Jay Inslee in the district 52% to 38%. Wow…this is the same 1st district that I live in?!?
In fact, these numbers are so surprising that the election sleuths at Kos Elections (formerly Swing State Project) find the poll results implausible:
If you read a little further down, though, the poll’s credibility takes a major hit, when you see the presidential numbers: Romney leads Obama 45-44. This is a district that, adjusted for the new boundaries, went for Obama 56-42 over McCain. This is also the state’s median district (Obama went 57% in all of Washington in ’08), so Rob McKenna should probably be leading by a couple points in the gubernatorial race, but instead he’s up 52-38 over Jay Inslee. Either this sample is way off, or else Obama and Inslee are finding some way to get, say, 120% of the vote in WA-07 in statewide polls to compensate for such a steep falloff in Dem fortunes in the new 1st.
These are all good points. But I’d sure like to see some more independent polling for the district before I chalk this one up to being an outlier….
This will be the election that finally puts Darcy out of politics for good.
@1 I regret I have to agree. I like Darcy personally and think she’d be excellent in the job, but after losing twice to someone as lackluster as Sheriff Dave, she carries the smell of failure. Better for her to keep doing behind-the-scenes work as a party functionary like she’s doing now.
How many times has Koster run unsuccessfully? If it’s Koster v. Burner this election could be called the Loser’s Bracket.
Is the poll an outlier? Obama carried the old 8th by 57% to 42%, yet Reichert won re-election that year by 53% to 47%. The old 2nd went 56% to 42% for Obama, but Larsen beat Koster by only 51% to 49% in 2010. Obama in 2008 was very popular, and ran several points ahead of the normal Democratic ticket.
Koster is still under 50% in the polls. Koster is better known than any of the Democratic candidates, having run twice in the old 2nd (2000 and 2010), and also being an elected official on the Snohomish County Council. Expect most of the undecideds to go to the Democrat in the general election, and it will be a pretty tight race.
As for McKenna being up 52% to 38% over Inslee, well a lot of the new 1st comes from the old 1st, and maybe they aren’t too happy with Inslee quitting and being left without a congressperson for nearly a year? In any event, McKenna ran a LOT stronger than 52% in the precincts of the new 1st in both of his races for Attorney General in 2004 and 2008.
errr ahhh …..
Darryl …
Seems pretty much what I predicted. Burner is not competitive in this Disirict. All she is achieving is poisoning the well.
Burner is more competitive than any of the other Democratic candidates. Even DelBene, who spent more money in 2010 in the old 8th than Burner ever spent, who is supposed to be a business moderate type, and who has actually held public office (appointed state revenue director). I think the new 2nd leans ever-so-slightly GOP, and Koster is likely to win. If so, this is due to Koster and the GOP being strong, and not to Burner being weak. Burner is probably the strongest Democratic candidate against Koster — win, lose or draw.
Richard,
I think your vision is old school …. BEFORE the rise of the independents.
If Koster and Burner end up in the election, the fight will be over the 30 % of folks who see not loyal to the elephants or the donkeys.
Koster needs about 1/3 of that vote. Burner needs 2/3.
Who are these folks? I think they are what I call business independents. They “look like” Obama, Patrick, Cantwell, Bil Gates, ….
These folks may or may not be committed to the unions, may or may not worry about drones, and may not see Fay marriage as a high moral issue.
Their big concerns in the first are LOCAL … will Boeing build the new 737 here? Will we get light rail to build commerce with BC. How do the folks in the North Cascades get jobs? How do we provide their kids with schools that can compete with those on Korea?
Darcy is not only weak on all of these, she appears antagonistic to local icons … it is impossible to see her as an advocate for Boeing military contracts, charter schools, or H2 visas at Microsoft. If she is the alternative to Koster, Darci is likely limited to less than 40% of the electorate.
Contrast my pontifical view of Burner with DelBene ir Rudderman. Both would start with the same core Democratic vote as Byrner … though she may be better at getting out her core others. Rudderman would get a good share of the independent vote based on her image as a feminist and as a local. DelBene could sell herself as the best for jobs .. given her achievements vs. those of Kiosters.
For Burner, DelBene or Rudderman to win, they also need to tar Koster with a tea party radical extremist image, As a self proclaimed radical, Burner is not in a good position to do this.
So, if you will excuse my tendency to speak as if I was a Pope, Burner’s campaign Reminds me of the way Tea Partiers have defeated Republican chances in Maryland, Florida, and Nevada.
As Pope, I accuse Darcy of the great political sin of vain glory.
SJ, another angle from the poll is that more than half of young people with cell phones are undecided. For the most part, these are folks disaffected by the parties (and politics in general) for many reasons. To attract these votes, we need a candidate who is a straight-shooter, who doesn’t change positions based on whims of polls – someone folks believe is truly a different candidate.
Once we reach the general (if Darcy wins), some voters will gravitate towards her traditional messages, such as protecting seniors against a Tea Party wingnut. She’ll peel off many undecideds. But she will also gain among people who don’t respond to the most common Dem themes by speaking openly and honestly (and consistently) about things like the wars and climate change.
As more people attack Darcy from all sides, it seems her poll numbers continue to climb. That’s because people like someone who’s solid on their issues – someone who knows the facts and takes a principled stand.
Based on a combination of the polls and what I’ve seen the campaigns do so far the best chance for the Democrats to hold the 1st is very likely Burner or possibly Ruderman.
DelBene’s strategy seems to be one one of not offending anyone and dumping a ton of money into media. I don’t think that is going to win her the primary and it certainly isn’t going to carry her over Koster. She’s barely been seen outside of the Eastern Seattle suburbs.
Ruderman has been doing a decent job of fundraising and has been out and about in the district. However Ruderman suffers from a lack of name recognition outside of her old legislative district. Given her relatively moderate record in the legislature I question her ability to run to the left of Burner as she seems to be trying to do.
Frankly the way the way the race against Koster will be won is by painting him as a conservative radical on social issues, particularly reproductive rights, and by painting him as a tea party radical on economic and regulatory issues. Burner is best positioned to do both.