Elway Research has released a new Washington state poll that includes some interesting races. The big one, of course, is the Washington state gubernatorial race.
The poll shows Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) leading challenger Dino Rossi (GOP-Party) 52% to 36%, with 12% “undecided”. This relatively small poll of 405 people was taken from July 27th to July 31st, and has a margin of error of 5%
This is the fifth July poll in this race. Rossi has led in none of them. In fact, Rossi has not led in a poll since the end of February—going back 14 polls.
As usual, I’ll analyze the results using a Monte Carlo approach (1,000,000 simulated elections with 405 voters, but this time the analysis is modified [upon prodding by scotto and Richard Pope] to include an additional uncertainty term. Technically, now I am drawing counts of votes from a beta-trinomial distribution and using uniform [uninformative] prior distributions on the preference probabilities).
Result 1: Gregoire won 992,024 of the elections and Rossi won 7,115 times. This suggests that, if an election were held now, Gregoire would have a 99.3% chance of winning and Rossi would have a 0.7% of winning.
Here is a plot showing the distribution of votes in the million elections (blue bars are wins for Gregoire and red bars are Rossi wins):
You may recall that there was a recent Strategic Vision poll of this race that gave Gregoire a slimmer 47% to 45% lead. That poll was taken from 25th July to 27th July. Given that the Elway and Strategic Vision polls were taken back-to-back, a combined analysis would seem in order.
Result 2: This time, Gregoire won 955,951 elections and Rossi won 41,842 of the elections. The analysis using both polls suggests that Gregoire would win with a 95.8% probability and Rossi would win with a 4.2% probability. A statistician would point out that, even using both polls, Gregoire’s win is slightly outside the margin of error.
Here is the plot showing the distribution of votes in the million elections for the combined polls:
Elway Research also polled for the presidential election in Washington state. Sen. Barack Obama (D) leads Sen. John McCain (R), 47% to 35%. This +12% margin is notable because, if I’m not mistaken, this is the first time that Gregoire has polled better against Rossi than Obama has against McCain.
Other results of note in the Elway poll include the Commissioner of Public Lands race where Peter Goldmark (D) barely leads incumbent Doug Sutherland (R) 31% to 30% (well within the margin of error, obviously). In the Attorney General race, incumbent Rob McKenna (R) leads John Ladenburg (D) 41% to 30%.
(Cross posted at Hominid Views)
It’s very irresponsible to present the results of a political election as merely a game. Maybe your able to treat the election as some kind of dice game in an ironic meaning but that is not the way we real people see it! This is Seattle, not Monte Carlo!!
I challenge you to create a nonvilent context in which you can serve tyhe people, instead of perverting them for your own sick pleasures! Yum!
Darryl — It is not “GOP Party”. If someone filled out the form that way, they would be listed as “Gop Party”, since only the first letter is capitalized.
Dino Rossi actually filed under the “G.O.P. Party”. The periods were necessary, in order for all the letters to be capitalized.
Of course, unless Rossi filed electronically, the handwritten entry could just as easily be read as “G.0.P. Party”, as opposed to “G.O.P. Party”. :)
I wonder how many primary votes will be cast for one of the two REPUBLICAN Party candidates for Governor on the primary ballot — John Aiken and Javier Lopez. After all, Dino Rossi is not listed as REPUBLICAN Party, but instead as G.0.P. Party. :)
Loren Berkowitz @ 1,
Doooood…WTF? Take a Ritalin or something….
Richard @ 2
‘not GOP Party…”G.O.P. Party”‘
I’ll try to remember that for next time, although I am tempted to shorten it to “GOPP” (pronounced go pee pee). It’s a fitting acronym for the Washington state offshoot of the party that created voodoo “trickle-down” economics.
@4
I was thinking that she already took too many of those.
My primary ballot was a mix of Republican’s and G.O.Per’s. I wonder if the mix will cause any confusion.
Okay, time for a stupid question. Why is this type of analysis called a ‘Monte Carlo approach’?
@8 It’s called “Monte Carlo” because it uses random numbers, ala a roulette wheel. The term was invented by European statisticians, where Monte carlo is the main, and highest class locale where gambling is available.
@2 G. O. P. stands for “grand old party”. So, “G.O.P. Party” would mean “grand old party party”. Makes no sense, does it?
Wow D. – are you really going to ask these inbred, right wing ass-licks to do math again? Don’t you remember the train wreck that causes in their tiny brains? They’re too busy trying to remember Lush Flimbaugh’s latest talking point to do any math.
The Rossi campaign is freaking out. They know that a bad primary showing for Rossi will doom his campaign.
His latest TV ads are telling: Rossi complains about high gas prices and the high cost of food. It is, as if, he’s running against George Bush.
While Governors can grow jobs, they don’t regulate the oil companies or the world crude market. Rossi must think he’s running for President.
Maybe now Rossi can start answering questions that he’s been dodging for months, and actually show a little leadership instead of just talking about it.
Hey Dino, how about some straight talk?
There were two recent polls, either paid for by Republicans or Rossi himself, trying to show that this race is close.
I’m interested to see the next batch of impartial numbers. By looking at the Rossi ad, with the candidate himself doing the attacking (in August), I would venture a guess that the Rossi camp has inside numbers look more like those of the Elway poll.
Rossi might have gotten a Seafair ‘bounce’ if instead of filing G.O.P., he’d filed as an “Arrrrr”.
I’m supporting Gregoire in this election, but I find it hard to believe a 16 point spread at this point in the race. Ten points is more believable.
But gain, to belabor the point, I’m watching to see whether the fact that most 18-25 year olds who don’t have a land line and use cell phones instead will result in them being under-represented in the polling. If they turn out big for Obama, as some studies say they will, then Gregoire might get a bounce that won’t show up in pre-election polling. Provided, of course, that the Democrats do a good job of educating the young people about the whole ticket.
I think that’s Rossi’s whole strategy – confuse the new voters. Make sure the wingnuts know he’s really one of them, but then in his general advertising pretend to be AGAINST the Republicans by complaining about high gas and food prices, saying he’s for “change”, and calling himself – well, anything but a Republican.
(It must really suck to be a Republican right now. Your only chance of winning an election is hoping that the people who vote for you are so ill-informed, that they think they are voting for the other guy).
These numbers (52% to 36%) are where they should be, because there’s really no reason for anyone to vote for Dino Rossi, except hard-core Republicans (the people who would vote for Adolf Hitler or Pol Pot if they ran under the G.O.P./B.I.A.W. Party label).
It’s very appropriate for Rossi to poll down in the mid-30s — right down there with Roadkill McGavick, Motherbeater Irons, and cigaret smoke — because he’s just as radical as they are, just as unqualified for public office, just as out of touch with the public and oblivious to real public needs, and is peddling the same smorgasbord of lies and fantasies as they are. In fact, Washington voters feel (by a margin of about 2%) that second-hand cigaret smoke is more trustworthy than the run-of-the-mill G.O.P./B.I.A.W. Party candidate.
Why Rossi ever polled above 36% to 38% can be explained only in terms of his campaign having successfully misrepresented him to voters as a “moderate” Republican. But to paraphrase P. T. Barnum, you can fool 49% of the people once, and 42% of the people for a while, but you can’t fool anyone except the G.O.P./B.I.A.W. Party’s highly irrational and badly misinformed core supporters for very long — and they’re mostly comprised of eastern Washington farmers who have been living on New Deal largesse for 75 years and have gotten a little strange from loneliness and fucking their sheep for too long.
I think Elway Research has presented themselves as a blatant outlier and unreliable polling service. How is it that three other polls (with smaller margins or error) all show closer grouped results, and then Elway releases this that has some rediculous results no where close to the mix.
The Elway poll puts Gregoire ahead in the Eastern part of the state for crying out loud! Explain that one to me.
I say propoaganda.
so if I take the square root of 42 1 million times I’ll come up with a distribution which proves that the square root of 42 …
so you’re taking some math / arithmetic / stats and proving that you put some procedures together to prove whatever you wanted.
maybe you should work on wall street selling technical analysis, OR, peddle get rich quick seminars on stock market gambling down at the SeaTac Hilton?
rmm.
I’d like to see Gregoire spend some money calling Rossi out on his campaign theme. The voice-over, in the movie-guy rumbling voice, would read:
Hmmm. Things don’t look too good for that Real Estate shilling, BIAW puppet, REPUBLICAN, Dino .
It bears repeating:
Dino, you’re a REPUBLICAN. Dino, you’re a REPUBLICAN. Dino, you’re a REPUBLICAN. Dino, you’re a REPUBLICAN. Dino, you’re a REPUBLICAN. Dino, you’re a REPUBLICAN. Dino, you’re a REPUBLICAN. Dino, you’re a REPUBLICAN. Dino, you’re a REPUBLICAN. Dino, you’re a REPUBLICAN. Dino, you’re a REPUBLICAN. Dino, you’re a REPUBLICAN. Dino, you’re a REPUBLICAN. Dino, you’re a REPUBLICAN. Dino, you’re a REPUBLICAN!!!
WOW!
No reason to even campaign with that kind of lead!
Seems like lots of folks who voted for Rossi last time are now voting for Gregoire.
I’ve met plenty of folks who are switching from Gregoire to Rossi…but none the other way around.
Darryl, did you read the fine-print on the survey??
It says this is a survey of voters newly registered by ACORN.
You know, the Left-Wing group who sent in 1100 phoney registrations last election and got busted.
Hey Rog–
Great call on hanging onto NOV and BOOM as oil prices plummet!
Perhaps you can continue to tell us what to invest in….if we do the opposite of Roger Rabbit, we’ll be wealthy!!
GBS–
I’m looking at another play on JRCC.
4 for 4 so far.
What level do you think should be an entry point?
By the way, Bush & McCain are pushing an offshore drilling plan which would give the states the option of allowing oil drilling in return for a share of the royalties.
So, perhaps Rossi should be forced into taking a position on offshore drilling off the state of Washington?
JohnM,
“I think Elway Research has presented themselves as a blatant outlier and unreliable polling service. How is it that three other polls (with smaller margins or error) all show closer grouped results, and then Elway releases this that has some rediculous results no where close to the mix.”
The fact that the Elway poll has a larger margin of error means the Elways results are more likely to show extremes (both high and low).
The Elway polls do not appear to be grossly out of whack or biased in favor of Gregoire. For example the 18-22 June Elway poll gave Gregoire a +8% advantage. The Rasmussen poll taken just before (9 June) gave Gregoire a +7% lead.
The 21-22 April Elway poll gave Gregoire a +5% advantage. A week before SurveyUSA gave Gregoire a +4%, and three weeks later a Rasmussen poll gave Gregoire a +11% advantage.
BTW, an analysis that incorporates all five polls taken in July (a total of 2771 respondents) yields a 96.6% probability that Gregoire would win a hypothetical election held in July. (The analysis includes the 400 respondent Moore Information poll that was commissioned by Rossi and showed the election tied.)
KLOWNS–
Did you read this article today about the $86.5 million King Kounty Budget Shortfall??
http://seattletimes.nwsource.c.....et05m.html
An $86.5 MILLION shortfall represents 13.15% of the $658 MILLION General Fund Budget.
WOW!
What will Sims Cut??
He is is uggesting raising Bus Fares 25 cents!
HOW PROGRESSIVE!
Progressivism==endless tax & fee increases
Progressivism=== relies on the economy to never sputter.
Progressivism=== is a Marxist knockoff.
Gregoire took over a year to listen to Mr. Cynical and finally proose some smoke-and-mirrors hiring freeze and a modest spending freeze.
The KLOWN Prince of King Kounty wants to increase Bus Fares!!
WTF!
Actually, 52% Christine Gregoire (Democratic Party) to 36% Dino Rossi (G.0.P. Party) makes a lot of sense. There will probably be another 6% to 8% voting for one of the avowed Republican Party candidates (John Aiken and Javier Lopez), and the remaining 4% to 6% split between the other six candidates on the ballot. Democrat Christian Joubert will probably get about 2%, and the other five candidates split the remaining 2% to 4%.
Given the fact that many Republican voters will actually end up voting for a Republican (instead of the G.0.P. Party), I would expect Gregoire to top Rossi by at least 10% in the head-to-head primary vote.
@14
I’m 40 and I don’t have a land line.
@13
Totally.
I don’t think Elway is as highly regarded as a Washington pollster as Field is in California. How could they be? The Field Poll has long been known to be the very best and most accurate in the business.
However, Elway has built up a solid reputation. For example, consider the Cantwell-McGavick race in 2006:
** In early February, Elway had the race at 55-25-?? (Cantwell-McGavick-undecided) while the GOP pollster Strategic Vision saw it as 48-40-12.
** By mid-April, SV still had it as 48-40-12 and Elway reported 52-23-26.
** During July, Elway saw it as 47-33-19, SV showed 48-44-8, Rasmussen 48-37-10, and Zogby Interactive 49-42-5.
Elway didn’t poll that race after July. But even as late as the last week of October, Strategic Vision still had Mike! within eight points of Maria. In fact, of course, Cantwell breezed to a 57-40 blowout victory.
The point is that Dino Rossi has to present voters with a really compelling case that he would be miles better than Chris Gregoire, and he hasn’t. In fact, he can’t. He has to avoid talking about his actual position on real issues, because if he doesn’t people will realize that he’s a Republican, and a pretty right-wing one.
So here’s Rossi, unable to make a strong case for change and tethered to a strategy of claiming that he’ll be a “leader” without saying how. Pretty weak tea.
Michael @ 26: I’m considering getting rid of my land-line, too. I’m paying $40 + a month (including assorted fees & taxes) for something I only use to receive a few calls.
It’s maybe worth $20 a month to me to have a land line, in case the cell phone service craps out or for the few times when I need to call home and get hold of ANYBODY who’s there, whether they have their phone charged or not.
But Verizon claims that our current plan is the cheapest available, even with no long distance usage, and can’t do anything better for me. We’ll probably make a decision to cancel the service by the end of the month, ending almost 30 years of service with the same telephone number.
@3 “After all, Dino Rossi is not listed as REPUBLICAN Party, but instead as G.0.P. Party.”
That’s a misnomer. It’s actually the G.O.P./B.I.A.W. Party.
@16 If you believe Rossi is ahead, then I’m sure you’re looking forward to Election Day as much as I am.
@17 I’d suggest you stick with something you know, which (from your comment) obviously is neither statistics nor investing. I’d guess your expertise is doing oil changes are Mr. Lube.
Shorter SeaBos84 @ 17:
I don’t get all that math stuff. It’s just something you city boys use to fool people like me.
Goldy can continue his mental masturbation with his voodoo statistical models or he can be a man and conceed that Rossi will be re-elected.
“Goldy can continue his mental masturbation with his voodoo statistical models or he can be a man and conceed that Rossi will be re-elected”
…he whined. With that off of his chest, the troll stuck his thumb back into his mouth and re-inserted his head into his anus…
I’m thinking we should get much more aggressive about prosecuting these republicans who get found guilty of illegal voting. When crybaby Rossi sued to try to steal the Governor’s office and got bitch slapped like the cum-eating asswipe he is, the republican judge in the republican county looking at an election supervised by a republican Sec of State found only illegal REPUBLICAN votes. Since these fucks will no doubt violate the law again, we should be ready for them with Democrats in law enforcement who aren’t afraid to use a night stick now and again on a republican traitor and criminal.
(PS I realize that “republican traitor” is not really necessary to say since we all know that if you are a republican you are a traitor – but it felt good anyway.)
Elway had Gregoire leading by 11 points around 10/1/04…and 5 point lead 1 week before Election Day.
I think Elway might be a fudge packer like
bbg