by Darryl, 06/28/2008, 11:55 PM

Elway has just released their June poll for the Washington state gubernatorial race. The poll of 405 people shows Governor Christine Gregoire leading Dino Rossi 47% to 39%.

The 8% spread found by Elway is the largest of the three June polls in this race. An early June SurveyUSA poll found Gregoire leading by +3.5%, and an early June Rasmussen poll found Gregoire up by +7%.

As usual, I use a Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the probability that Gregoire would win if the election were held now. I simulated a million gubernatorial elections of 405 voters each, where each person had a 47% chance of voting for Gregoire, a 39% chance of voting for Rossi and a 14% chance of voting for neither.

Gregoire won 965,619 of the simulated elections and Rossi won 3,852 times. This suggests that Gregoire has something approaching a 96.9% chance of beating Rossi (if the election were held now). A statistician would simply point out that Gregoire’s lead in this poll is outside the margin of error.

Here is a plot showing the distribution of votes in the million elections:

Poll of Gregoire v. Rossi, June Elway

The area to the right of the red line are wins for Gregoire; those to the left are wins for Rossi.

This current poll makes the eighth consecutive poll in a row in which Gregoire has led Rossi. At this point in the election season, Gregoire holds a commanding lead over Rossi.

37 Responses to “Poll: Gregoire Leads Rossi 47% to 39%”

1. Daniel K spews:

Darryl – is there a poll missing then from the list at Wikipedia if this is the 8th and not the 7th consecutive poll showing Gregoire ahead?

2. Mark1 spews:

Sit next to Goldy pullin’ his pud over Ditzy; and you over Queen Crissy, maybe one of you will be over 5″ and actually know you have a dick. I love how polls somehow mean nothing on this despicable blog; but then turn out to be the almighty after it is determined that whatever liberal ignoramous is ahead at that moment in time. One-sided come to mind?

3. vooodooo84 spews:

Yay cheers for being outside the margin of error.

4. ByeByeGOP spews:

We’ll need to win big. Remember in the court challenge that sore looooooooser Rossi filed, the republican judge found in the republican county that in an election overseen by a republican secretary of state, that the only illegal votes were by republicans. Assuming they will cheat again, we need to win big.

5. reggie spews:

Totally meaningless….

Chrissy has to run on her record. You know the one where she shows everyone how she did on the 520 bridge, the viaduct, the sonics, etc..etc…etc

Four years of her lack of leadership is nothing to be crowing about. We need change in Washington DC (Obama) and we need change in Olympia (Rossi)

6. reggie spews:

Totally meaningless….

Chrissy has to run on her record. You know the one where she shows everyone how she did on the 520 bridge, the viaduct, the sonics, etc..etc…etc

Four years of her lack of leadership is nothing to be crowing about. We need change in Washington DC (Obama) and we need change in Olympia (Rossi)

7. Roger Rabbit spews:

You gotta wonder about the 39%! There’s too many dumb voters in this state! Rossi has nothing to offer. No credentials. No experience. No accomplishments. He should stay home and raise his kids.

8. Roger Rabbit spews:

@2 Liberal ignoramus? Gregoire’s toenail clippings have more smarts than the cement between your ears.

9. Roger Rabbit spews:

@5 Gregoire has done extremely well on the Sonics! Not one penny of taxpayer money has been handed over to billionaires in extortion payments to keep a useless sports team in Seattle. You can’t ask for a better governer than that! Rossi would have fallen all over himself sucking up to Clay Bennett and his gang of flim-flam men.

10. Roger Rabbit spews:

We need better trolls on this board. The ones we have now are the bottom of the barrel.

11. Upton spews:

That’s the way Christine, we don’t need a lying BIAW shill as governor.

12. michael spews:

The Tacoma paper has pieces by Rossi and Gregoire in it today.

Rossi:
http://www.thenewstribune.com/opinion/insight/story/400340.html

Gregoire:
http://www.thenewstribune.com/opinion/insight/story/400338.html

Now, back to my coffee.

13. Goldy spews:

Darryl, I’d be interested to compare a three-month running average of this race to that of a three-month running average from the Cantwell-McGavick race over the same time period.

14. Mr. Cynical spews:

Hey Darryl–
Wait until voters disect & chew on this–
1st the Tribe Conflict…now the Unions.
Unions get taxpayer money…which they are donating to Gregoire…while she is negotiating their raises??
You should be outraged Darryl!! Laugh-laugh

CORRUPTED GREGOIRE NEEDS TO BE FIRED!

[Copied text deleted and replaced with link. See HA Comment Policy]

15. YLB spews:

14 – Propaganda from the BIAW/Rossi REPUBLICAN sales-force.

Snore…

16. YLB spews:

My wife is an SEIU member under one of those categories and they’re not going to get much this go around.

The big boss of the place where she works has frozen all hiring. A co-worker left to change careers and hasn’t been replaced. The staff is now sorely overworked. And this is at one of the busiest places with the highest demand for services.

That sucks. Overworked people will call in sick more and just make things worse.

17. Darryl spews:

Daniel @ 1,

The Wikipedia page was missing this poll from SurveyUSA taken from 14-16 April. (Here is my analysis of that poll.)

The Wikipedia page is updated with the poll now.

18. Rick D. spews:

Me thinks Goldy is getting scared. The boy knows deep down inside that his girl Darcy Burnout is toast and now the nervous feeling that Queen Christine is vulnerable…….which she is.

I’m sure the drinking liberally crowd will start drinking a little earlier and with more frequency when McCain and Rossi are righfully elected to their positions in November.

Let the squealing on the left begin.

19. reggie spews:

Who the hell do you think is doing the BIAW’s calling in Olympia now that Dino’s not there?

As someone who worked on SB6835 I saw first-hand the power this group wields. Only it wasn’t wielded by a Republican. It was by Frank “the obstructionist” Chopp.

So if you are going to paint Rossi as this bad person for taking BIAW money, you’ve got to extend that to Frank Chopp as well.

20. YLB spews:

Little Ricky Dumbass – so divorced from reality it isn’t funny.

There’s no sure thing in politics but once people know that the same old Republican bullshit of the last 7+ years is just being re-packaged, it’s the little Ricky Dumbasses of the world who are going to be crying in their beer.

How’s the militia movement looking to you, Little Ricky Dumbass?

21. reggie spews:

Roger…..

I noticed you skipped right over the 520 issue and the viaduct issue. Hey two out of three ain’t bad is it?

Of course you are dead wrong about the Sonics. There wasn’t going to be any state money involved. All it took was a VOTE to extend a tax that is already in effect in King County. Based on Chrissy’s love of taxes I didn’t see where that would have been a problem for her.

22. Mr. Cynical spews:

YLB–
Your only response to legitimate questioning of Gregoire’s motives with the Tribes and now the Union is it must be propaganda????
Bad try KLOWN!
Gregoire added 8000+ new employees and countless other new spending programa in an economic downturn…is that how she expects taxpayers to manage their personal finances??
Gregoire is saying;
If your income is going down…SPEND MORE!!
Now SHE has created a scenario where she has to come up with solutions to a $2.5 BILLION Budget deficit that SHE created by going spending crazy.

Only 2 things she can do:
Cut Spending or Raise Taxes
Where is her plan??????????????????
She owes the voters a friggin’ PLAN!
Instead she pretends like the problem doesn’t exist….like an alcoholic she cannot fess up to her overspending and the consequences on her State.

Actually there is a 3rd….fuzzy math. I’m sure she has her beancounters working on how to hide the deficit.

In addition, with approx $37 BILLION of State Retirement Funds in the stock marketand a $5 BILLION Deficit there already…YIKES!
I hope the “preliminary” 6/30/08 Retirement Fund numbers come out BEFORE the election. It could be a $7 BILLION deficit..or more. I’m sure they will keep the numbers under wraps.

She will probably try to blame it all on Bush & Cheney. Don’t think that will sell when SHE added all the new employees and additional spending.

Your wife should be will to help the Quenn with a PAYCUT in this round of negotiations.
Lots of folks with REAL JOBS are being laid off or forced to take cuts. Why not government workers? How about some layoffs???

Gregoire is a career bureaucrat who spent her entire career at the Public Trough. She is incapable of providing leadership on fixing this huge problem SHE created. Even worse…SHE doesn’t know, that she doesn’t know what in the F*CK she is doing.

Reckless, careless spending & fiscal mismanagement. That will be her legacy.

23. All Facts Support My Positions spews:

I don’t know…. The Attorney General threw 400,000 legitimate voters off the rolls in Washington State. Most of them in King County. I am sure Rossi approves whole heartedly.

Voting for ANY Republicon should be considered a crime.

24. Mr. Cynical spews:

The 6/30/07 State Retirement Annual Report was submitted to Gregoire on 12/20/07. Seems to me there should be “preliminary” numbers much prior to that.
The Report is all shiney and has lots of pages in it.
The bottom-line is what is the Deficit??
Legislature ought to know asap so they can plan upcoming budget accordingly.

Are they going to continue to let the deficit grow? Will they lower benefits for members (yea right), will they start funding the deficit (hell no..you don’t get any credit for funding past obligations…just for giving away TAXPAYER $$ to the tribes, UNIONS and other FRIENDS OF CHRISTINE)??

25. Roger Rabbit spews:

@14 OMIGOD!!! Mr. C. is complaining because the Governor believes state employees deserve a living wage! Call out the national guard!

What’s the average state salary, $50,000 for a manager or professional, less for support staff? Only a few department heads make over $100,000.

How is it that tightwads like Mr. C. feel that’s extravagant in the public sector, but have no problem with CEOs who lose money for their shareholders skimming millions from private corporations? What a hypocrite!

Why should people get paid less simply because they work for the public’s benefit instead of for bosses’ private gain?

26. YLB spews:

Mr. Cynical,

The tribal gaming issue has been discussed here. Gregoire obeyed the wishes of the voters in halting a spread of gaming in exchange for modest revenues. More gambling is not good for our communities. Don’t blame the “gubmint” – that’s what the voters want.

The tribes are contributing more to the Governor because she is the incumbent and expected to win. They have little love for Republicans after the whacked out machinations of Slade Gorton.

The Unions go with a winner and it’s not your guy. Like I said before, heading into a recession they’re not going to get much.

You candidate is a former real estate hustler. His “friggin’ plan” is bunch of lies and fantasies. His real plan is to enrich his friends at the expense of the environment and quality of life in this State.

Dino Rossi would be as much of disaster for this State as Bush was for the country at large.

My wife doesn’t make much money. Her position is the kind that employers in her field use to cut costs and the keep the head-count of more expensive workers to a minimum, i.e. the kind of “crap rolls downhill” sort of job. And it’s very much a REAL JOB – she deals with people in dire circumstances every day. She makes slightly more than she would in the private sector where the working conditions are way worse.

Nice try, Republican KLOWN…

27. gs spews:

Government workers overworked…Ha Ha make me laugh. I have a friend who works in King County who was scoulded by their co-workers for getting too much done each day and making them look bad.

Neither overworked or underpaid are words which belong in King COunty government halls.

28. YLB spews:

Gaseous Shithead @ 27

ha, ha, ha – you’re such a loser. My wife doesn’t work for KC but there’s plenty of people who do a fine job in KC.

For example, that braindead Republican Sheriff who’s pretending to be a congressman had to be one of them right? Only trouble was that he allowed a killer to run around free for over 20 years.

Oooops…

29. pu spews:

hey ylb why dont you get a job like the wife. losssssssssssssssssssssssssser

30. Mr. Cynical spews:

YLB sez–
“And it’s very much a REAL JOB – she deals with people in dire circumstances every day”

Sounds like she is part of the world-reknowned for ineptness DHSH bureaucracy.
My church, our family & friends help out people in trouble out of their own pocketbooks and out of the kindness of their hearts.
Explain to me why we need a multi-BILLION ineffective bureaucratic tub of goo like DSHS when the private sector can do a much better job of cost-effectively delivering services.

ROG–
State Government workers are PUBLIC SERVANTS.
They sacrifice income potential for security, huge benefits, lots of PAID time-off and lots of coffee breaks.
Us self-employed, risk it all every day entrepreneurs have little use for those bureaucrats who couldn’t survive in the real competitive word and who go out out there way to be stumbling blocks for those who create the tax dollars that fund their salary, paid time-off and benefits.
I don’t get paid vacations or sick leave or benefits Rog.

31. Daddy Love spews:

5-6 R

I like that.

Totally meaningless…

Yet another in the seemingly endless parade of examples of Republicans refusing to let the facts interfere with the beliefs their ideology demands they hold. This lack of touch with reality is why Republicans cannot be trusted with our public services.

32. Daddy Love spews:

18 RD

You couldn’t be more right. You wouldn’t believe how nervous this sort of thing makes us all. Wow, it really hits home how “vulnerable” Governor Gregoire is when we see a poll that shows her leading Dino Rossi 47% to 39%. Ooh, close.

33. Daddy Love spews:

Cynical

Good one. Voters love reeeeeealllyyy llloooonnggg posts about pension funds. Should put Dino right over the top. Have him talk about it some more.

34. Roger Rabbit spews:

@30 “DHSH”

It’s DSHS, dummy! Cripes, you can’t even get that right. But what can we expect from an idiot who put $90,000 into Wells Fargo stock?!

35. Roger Rabbit spews:

@30 What security? What coffee breaks? By huge benefits, do you mean the pension I paid for myself and the health insurance that is rather less generous than a union carpenter or boilermaker gets? And don’t forget, public servants have to spend their lives kissing the feet of unappreciative ingrates like you.

36. I-Burn spews:

@35

If it’s such an onerous life Roger, why did you, why would anyone, willingly choose it? There must be some redeeming quality to feeding from the public trough. I don’t believe for a minute that it’s stictly altruism. If you got such a rotten deal, perhaps you should have gotten a job in the private sector – of course that would have meant having real accountability, so maybe not, eh?

The next “public servant” I freakin’ see kissing the feet of any member of the public will be the goddamned first one, Roger. Maybe if they took their responsibilities to the public a bit more seriously, they’d receive less hostilty. What do you think?

37. jeff spews:

DL @34
I actually agree with you. Most voters sadly want to know what the guv’mint will do for them. They are incapable of understanding the long-run devastating affects of “unfunded” liabilities. Someday they will.
There is no glory in paying debts is there DL.