Moore Information has released a new poll for the Washington state gubernatorial race. The poll of 400 people, taken from July 9 to July 10, shows Governor Christine Gregoire (D) tied with Dino Rossi (GOP-Party) at 45%.
The race has tightened up even further than the +6% spread found in a July 9th Rasmussen poll discussed last Friday. June polls gave Gregoire (chronologically) +3%, +6% and +8% leads over Rossi.
My usual Monte Carlo analysis is unnecessary…with a tied poll, Gregoire and Rossi each have a 50% chance of winning an election held now. But given that the Moore and Rasmussen polls were taken simultaneously, I’ll do my usual analysis of the combined results.
When the July 9th Rasmussen poll is pooled with the July 9-10 Moore poll we end up with 900 pooled polled individuals, of which 80 (8.9%) were undecided, 425 (47.2%) voted for Gregoire and 395 (43.9%) went for Rossi. I simulated 1,000,000 elections of 900 people, each randomly voting with probabilities equal to the three percentages.
Gregoire won 848,698 of the simulated elections and Rossi won 143,199 times. The combined results suggest that, if an election were held now, Gregoire would have something like an 85.6% chance of beating Rossi, and Rossi would have a 14.4% chance of beating Gregoire. (When the Rasmussen poll was analyzed alone, Gregoire had a 90.9% probability to Rossi’s 9.1% probability of winning.)
Here is a plot showing the distribution of votes in the million elections for the pooled polls:
Blue bars are wins for Gregoire and red bars are Rossi wins.
Moore Information also polled a head-to-head match-up between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain. Obama lead McCain 47% to 37%. The +10% advantage for Obama is very similar to the +9% edge found in the Rasmussen poll (48% to 39%).
Stop by Hominid Views later this evening to see a 50-state Monte Carlo analysis that will include this new poll.
Oh…one other thing. The Moore Information poll was paid for by the Rossi campaign.
Seattle Sonics effect, Darryl? Given that this is a poll that I assume querried participants after the court decision?
HA bloggers, time to ramp up your demonization of Rossi.
@Troll no need to ramp up anything. Facts are facts. He’s a proven liar – he’s a known crybaby and he’s not done one thing to help the state of Washington in the last four years. He’s ashamed of the republican party.
He’s another empty suit running in a year when Dems will trounce republicans nationwide.
Remember these polls only look at LIKELY voters for the most part. LIKELY voters don’t represent all the new Democrats we’ve registered.
In any event, when CG was ahead in these polls I said they didn’t matter and they still don’t. They’re just a snapshot in time. The only such snapshot that matters is election day.
I suspect you’ll be nowhere to be found here on the day after Troll as we’re about to have a historic win for the Dems and the nation – you’ll skulk away, cut and run and show you’re just another “GOP” coward.
Rossi demonizes himself every time he opens his mean-spirited yap.
You can see the horns practically grow out of his head.
Rossi: conceived, designed, manufactured, bought and paid for puppet of BIAW.
She needs every vote and the Sonics mess didn’t help her cause. She and several other politicians are on my shit list because of that. Not that I’d ever vote for Rossi, the lackey of the extremists at the BIAW. If he’d so gladly suck them off, there’s no telling what else he’s capable of doing.
Talk about a mean lying Bitch ask Gregoire about the millions she handed the Indian Casinos for a million or so in her pouch, now there is a mean lying bitch.
Or maybe we should try the 9.5 cent (highest in state history) that she said was necessary for the roads before she sid she’s against building roads.
Or maybe we should look at the cost of 9000 new state employees, on top of Gary Lockes 20,000 new state employees, and soon we will have the biggest bloated do nothing industry in washington….State Goverment Rules…….
Don @ 1,
“Seattle Sonics effect, Darryl?”
I doubt it.
“Given that this is a poll that I assume querried participants after the court decision?”
Yes…but so was the Rasmussen poll. The Moore poll is pretty small and was paid for by the Rossi campaign (the former may well make a difference the latter isn’t supposed to).
gs,
“Talk about a mean lying Bitch ask Gregoire about the millions she handed the Indian Casinos for a million or so in her pouch, now there is a mean lying bitch.”
You appear to be woefully under-informed on the issue.
“Or maybe we should try the 9.5 cent (highest in state history) that she said was necessary for the roads before she sid she’s against building roads.”
On the other hand, we have the lowest income tax in the nation….
“Or maybe we should look at the cost of 9000 new state employees, on top of Gary Lockes 20,000 new state employees, and soon we will have the biggest bloated do nothing industry in washington….State Goverment Rules…….”
Yeah…or the ZERO state employees we had sucking us dry before Washington was a state!
(Never mind the fact that WA was recently rated as the third highest performing state government in the country)
You wingnuts…you’re adorably STUPID!
@8 “…you’re adorably STUPID.”
And so utterly lacking of any charm or wit.
Darryl — I assume the Monte Carlo analysis comes out pretty damned close to 500,000 to 500,000 when you run a million elections at 45% to 45%. :)
This is a fancy way of saying that if the election was held today the Rasmussen Poll (49%-43%) would accurately predict Gregoire as the winner 90% of the time, while 10% of the time they’d be wrong.
Or, if you had a 6% margin on an election day poll, you’d expect the leader to prevail 9 out of 10 times.
Interesting, but unremarkable.
Richard @ 10,
Yep…pretty damned close!
Donovan,
“This is a fancy way of saying that if the election was held today the Rasmussen Poll (49%-43%) would accurately predict Gregoire as the winner 90% of the time, while 10% of the time they’d be wrong.”
Yeah…that is what the previous analysis suggested.
“Or, if you had a 6% margin on an election day poll, you’d expect the leader to prevail 9 out of 10 times.”
Yes, but only for a sample size of 500 (as the Rasmussen poll had). If you have larger sample in the poll the probability of the leader winning goes up. With smaller samples, the probability goes down.
“Interesting, but unremarkable.”
Hey…you get what you pay for….
Looks like the Moore Information poll may have actually referred to Dino Rossi as “G.O.P. Party” when questioning people. On the John McCain vs. Barack Obama contest, they were called Republican and Democrat respectively.
I wonder if Gregoire opens up a bit of a lead if voters are aware that Rossi is a REPUBLICAN.
Richard,
They did refer to Rossi as G.O.P Party candidate (that’s Go P P for short) in the poll. But that is also the language the ballot will use (short of something semi-catastrophic happening).
Darryl @ 15
True enough. But about 2/3 of the voters in King and Pierce counties, and 100% of the voters in all other counties, will be voting by mail this year. That will give most voters more time to consider the race, rather than just the voice of a pollster saying “G.O.P. Party”. Maybe a higher percentage of voters will realize that Rossi is really a REPUBLICAN at heart.
Speaking of REPUBLICAN voters, remember that your presidential primary preference was not only public, but is in a computer database now.
Just think of all the repetitive Republican Party (and maybe even G.O.P. Party) get-out-the-vote robocalls you will qualify for this fall :)
I have written about this before.
What we are seeing is trhe results of advertising. Both of thes ebozoes are running negative ads .
The problem for CG, is that she simply has no visible track record as a leader. Horses As Tales about her skills as a negotiator or knowledge of the inner physics of politics do not translate well when for the last three years she has failed to appear to the public as a leader.
This could get a lot wo9rse if Rossi were to break out of his Bushite shell. McCain, Romney (veep) and S neggger would make terrific surrogates for Dino esp if he were to actually propose some meaningful reforms.
Unfortunatley for CG she is a lousy speaker and a weak debater. Her stump speech about the wonders of the female leadership falls flat with many people.
I know I am a rusty record on this but if I were her campaign manger I would pick one or two issues that would force Rossi to deny his Reprican roots. As examples:
a. a state plan to deal with immigration.
b. full funding for constitutionally mandated education.
c. Regional NS transportation plan with the force of the State behind issues like the Viaduct and 605.
d. State wide plan for the future of Higher Ed, including development of polytechnical schools.
………….
4 year Goober-natorial incumbent can only manage a tie against the guy that won in 2004 before the Cook County…..err King County elections started pulling ballots out of their asses for a month after the election? That’s a win for Rossi for sure.
3 months left until McCain beats the Chitown Assclown ; Dino dethrones the Queen of Olympia ; and Reichert torches Darcy Burner’s quest for a seat in the house of Representatives.
The suicide prevention hotline will be ringing off the Hook that November night with about half of the calls coming from HA regular leftist loonbats. Personally, I can’t wait to witness the carnage.
New Quinnipiac poll:
Time for the wingnuts to return to arguing that polls don’t mean anything. Saddle up, boys.
18 RD
You mean like how he “torched” her by less than 3% when she ran as an unknown?
And regarding Gregoire/Rossi, I don’t think you should imagine that running against the incumbent is the same as running for an open seat. Heck, if Reichert can use incumbency to win with his record, Gregoire will surely “torch” Rossi.
Put it in your speed dial Daddy Love You’ll be one of those that will be distraught November 6th and need to talk to someone.
Does anyone know if it’s true that Democrats Gregoire, Sims, and Nickels, have never held a private sector job in their entire adult lives?
Dino Lossi’s “move to the center” was such a freaking joke. Driving a hybrid SUV without a seatbelt. Anything else? Converting the government fleet to hybrids? Anything else?
The guy is such a tool of BIAW.
I heard that Rossi has a DUI he’s been hiding. We need to get to the bottom of that. Turned out Monkeyface had one the republicans hid until the very end right before he stole the 2000 election. Let’s see if we can do a better job of locating Dino’s NOW!
I guess Puddylicker won’t be voting for Rossi this time around now that Puddy is finally caught.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25688239/
By the way – any progress on getting known liar Dino Rossi, you know the guy who’s ashamed to call himself a republican, to release his tax records? What’s this asshole hiding?
Darryl;
Any thoughts as to how cell phones are affecting the polling sample? Lots of younger people are skipping the land-line entirely and using cell phones exclusivly. Polls which don’t call cell phones would be distorting the demographic.
Assuming that these potential voters tilt more towards Obama than McCain, that might indicate that current polls are “shorting” Obama’s support – if they vote, that is. I wonder how this factor would break in the Governor’s race?
A little bit of info for some of you out of state readers who don’t know all that much about Gregoire. In college she was president of a sorority that disallowed black people. That’s a fact.
And if you’re wondering why this blog is SO passionate about Gregoire …
… No blacks have posting privileges on this blog. That also is a fact.
has anyone seen the DJIA today?
I feel like it’s Jan 31st, 2001.
Hey, maybe this time George W. Bush will go on the offensive now since he already knows that bin Laden and al Qeada attacked the USS Cole.
Maybe this time he won’t ignore terrorism and al Qeada at his first NATO summit. After all Bill Clinton told him this would be the biggest issue he’d deal with.
Maybe this time he won’t tell the Intel Officer who handed him his PDB on Aug 6th “OK You’ve coverd your ass.” Maybe this time they’ll order the FAA to take extra precautions.
Maybe this time he won’t lie us into a war, trample on the Constitution, borrow trillions of dollars, fuck up the economy, ruin our reputation around the world . . . face it, he’s a fuck up. Of course he’ll screw it up again like every other executive position he’s ever held.
Yep that 300 point gain on the Dow over 7 1/2 years is show how well Republicans can manage the economy, huh?
Wow, Dino has closed the distance. Or what’s her name is floundering and failing.
And the same for mcsame closing the distance on obama.
Except obama is crashing and burning.
Even the new york daily news finally sees that obama is scrubbing his website.
Maybe you should start working on how the republicans stole another election. What ever you do don’t realize it’s the message and not the messenger.
Time for you to get a clue. Why not use a dailykos poll?
Quinnipian had ned lamont over liberman 54-41 the day of the election.
And we all saw how that turned out for the nutroots.
GBS–
Sold Wells Fargo yesterday @ $23.55/share.
Kudos to my Broker for seeing this coming & acting.
Lost $.67/share or $2680.
We are actually looking to buy back if it dips to $20. Didn’t get there today.
I’m sitting on the sidelines GBS.
No stomach for this kind of volatility.
It’s a short-termers market.
Thanks again for the tip on JRCC.
$10,550 profit in less than a week on 3 trades.
Still watching JRCC. Not sure what to make of it now. Are you still trading??
The deciding factor in the Governor’s Race will be Gregoire’s decision to increase spending 35% while revenues only grew 1/2 of that at a time when hard-working Washingtonians were tightening their family budget belts. Adding 8000+ new employees while voters are staying home instead of going on vacation will be virtually impossible to overcome. Also, Gregoire’s failure to act on this upcoming $2.7 BILLION Deficit situation. She should have called an emergency session, imposed spending freezes, hiring freezes and layoffs.
She has done nothing…and has no plan.
Poor Mr. Cynical! And I do mean poor. Wells Fargo is down again today. He’s now lost $13,480 on that “investment.” Why he risked $90,000 of his retirement money on a bank stock is a fucking mystery. It won’t be long now before he’s living off food banks and becomes a Democrat.
GBS–
Obviously if Bush were running again he would lose…because of the economy.
But he is not running.
McCain is known as a no-nonsense guy when it comes to spending.
O-blah-blah is the most liberal of all 100 US Senator’s.
In the end, it will be the “Economy Stupid”…which will end up favoring McCain making this yet another very tight election.
bybygoober@25, man you are slipping.
Rog–
Read above.
Sold WFC yesterday.
Looking to get back in around $20.
See if I get it today.
Gee Cynical, how’s the Republican Economy doing? Wholesale inflation of 9.8% last month. Stock market below 11,000. Oil prices heading for $170. McSame will be lucky if he carries 3 states.
So. A Republican steals 2 elections, starts an expensive recreational war, and sells IOUs to China to pay for it. Now we have double-digit inflation and foreigners are buying our companies at fire-sale prices. What else is new? When haven’t Republicans mismanaged the economy? Hoover. Eisenhower. Nixon. Ford. Reagan. Bush I. And now Bush II. Every single one of ’em created an economic mess that Democrats had to straighten out. Why would anyone vote for the Greedy Old Plutocrats’ party??!
@37 Why the hell would you pay $20 for Wells Fargo? Do you enjoy downhill sleigh rides? Given opaque balance sheets, weakening consumer loan performance, broke borrowers, and vulnerable dividends, where’s the upside to this stock? Are you buying it at 20 hoping it’ll go to 3 so you can day-trade it on the way down, losing 60 cents at a time, instead of $17 all at once? Does that make you feel like a smarter “investor”?
HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR
I know who Roger Rabbit reminds me of! Mel Gibson. Remember when Gibson said he thought Jews were responsible for all the ills of society, and how they are the cause of all the wars, etc? The only difference is Gibson hates and demonizes Jews, and with Roger Rabbit it’s Republicans.
Puddy,
We have missed you at Tuesday night services lately. Hope all is right. Sister Clarice tells me she was hoping you would join our new choir.
Your friendly Rev.
Hey anyone notice that talk of a recession was going to feel good compared to the fact that we’re on the verge of a flat out DEPRESSION! Bush and the republicans have not only destroyed our Constitution, they’ve destroyed our economy.
Back in to WFC @ 20.75
Rog–
You may want to watch your own investments more closely..
BOOM down to 29 again.
NOV down.
Mr. C:
Yep, I’m still in the market, but just barely for now. I’m holding ICO. I got in on a dip at $9.88.
I should’ve sold it yesterday, but this is the only security I have in play right now. I’m all cash otherwise.
Since we’re in a bear market now I’m going to focus on some bear market strategies with my options investment account. Specifically, I’m looking at the Energy sector (XLE) and that ETF is down a lot and looks to be trending lower. It just broke through the $80 support level today and the next stop is in the low $70’s.
Specifically, I’ll be looking at Bear Call Spreads on a few enrgy stocks like PQ (looks to be forming a double top right now)and TLM is at a support level now, if it breaks that it could be a bear call spread candidate as well.
Steel stocks like GNA and X have both fallen to earlier support levels as well.
When the market indicates it’s finished bottoming out, which may be a few more quarters, I’ll probably move to Collars and buying securities again. But for now, I think low risk, fixed return plays in the options market are much better ideas.
Mr. C and Roger Rabbit,
I’m quite certain that niether of you have been caught up in too many losses in your trades. Right?
I mean, NOBODY knows what the market will do next. In order to be sensible investors we have established trade rules. Right?
Like Trailing Stops or Stop Loss orders in place. Right? Or, in my case, since I use optios with my security plays, mine Stop Loss orders have conditions that “trigger” other orders to close out my options positions. So when I place a “buy” order, I alwasy place my stop orders IMMEDIATELY afterwards. ALWAYS.
That said, I’m sure none of us were stupid enough to ride a stock down to a big loss. Live to fight another day.
One of my trading rules is to calculate how much would I lose on this trade if it goes against me. (Because, eventually it WILL!!)
If the loss is more than 5% of my total portfolio, then I don’t enter the trade.
I’m at an age where I can afford to be aggresive with my portfolio, but not all of it. No matter how old I get, though, I’ll always have a portion of my portfolio available for this kind of trading. This, to me is fun.
Troll at 41:
Yeah, Mel Gibson, that right-wing Conservative-Christian, Jew hating REPUBLICAN.
I agree with you 100%.
Roger Rabbit hates Republicans the same way Replicans hate the Jews.
Good call.
Rev, Sorry man, I have been busy getting the garden together these past few weeks. Wife wants me to use “organic” bybygoobericides (Pesticides to the rest of your) but the goobers still pop up. Just like goober here.
Tell Clarice to hold my robe for me as I sing bass and have good range to high tenor.
33. Gregoire isn’t running on her record, she has non.
In a democrat state where Obama is leading by eleven, the incumbant is dead even.
Gregoire’s even pissing off eleven percent of her own party.
It’s Rossi Time!
You know Change Change Change!
While Gregoire’s record alone make a Dino win inevitable, he still has three main hurdles to overcome and that is GWB, McCain, and the economy. In a sense this makes Dino the underdog and he is going to have to pull not one but three rabbits out of his hat to overcome these major hurdles. Unfortunately he’s excercising the same campaign strategy of bashing Gregoire on issues which traps all governors, ie; economy, transportation, surplus, taxes, education, etc.
He will need to come up with something profound that speaks directly to the people. It’s going to be another close one!
While Gregoire’s record alone make a Dino win inevitable, he still has three main hurdles to overcome and that is GWB, McCain, and the economy. In a sense this makes Dino the underdog and he is going to have to pull not one but three rabbits out of his hat to overcome these major hurdles.
Unfortunately he’s excercising the same campaign strategy of bashing Gregoire on issues which traps all governors, ie; economy, transportation, surplus, taxes, educations, etc.
He will need to come up with something profound that speaks directly to the people. It’s going to be another close one. If he pulls it off it will be a much needed win for Republicans.
GS
I’ve just done a bit of checking on “Moore Information”, the outfit that did the poll showing Governor Gregoire and Mr. Rossi “tied”.
Interesting outfit. A Republican polling organization, currently being investigated by a Grand Jury for running “push polls” for Senator McCain during the primaries.
A report on this is here.
Oddly enough, their polling usually seems more favorable to the Republican than “non-partisan” outfits, including Rasmussen.
As for Governor Gregoire’s record. Let’s see. Washington has lower than average unemployment and an economy doing better than most other states. Our housing market is doing better than most other states.
No, I’m pretty happy with Governor Gregoire’s record, and while a bunch of embittered Republicans are still annoyed that they weren’t able to steal the last election (despite trying very hard), the rest of the state has moved on.
Oh, and just in case anyone is wondering. The New Hampshire Attorney General going after Moore Information? She’s a Republican.
John–
Have you been paying attention to the 35% increase in Government spending while revenue increased only 18%?
Have you looked into the upcoming $2.7 BILLION deficit SHE created because of HER actions and asked yourself:
What is she going to cut?
What tax is she going to increase?
Voters will vote with their pocketbooks John.
Perhaps all is well for you….but small businesses are struggling. The cost of living in Washington is skyrocketing lead by tax increases.
Polls are insignificant.
The election will come down to pocketbook issues and Gregoire’s failure to address this deficit situation sooner.
She has no plan John…and doesn’t seem very worried.
That usually means one thing TAX INCREASE!
Wow how fucking far from the truth can you get? CynCyn apparently lies so often he simply doesn’t mind taking each lie further and further.
Washington scores above average in every single economic category. In fact, if you look at states with republican (that’s GOP for you Rossi backers) Governors, Washington is ahead most of the time. Lower taxes, higher income.
There is no deficit in Washington state. That’s a typical CynCyn lie. And it’s too bad that CynCyn isn’t worried for real about deficits because if he was, he’d back Democratic candidates. We were the last party to balance the budget and the republicans wasted that and went the other way in record amounts.
And for once in his miserable child molesting existence CynCyn said one thing that’s true. Voters vote with their pocketbook which means Dems will win state and national elections this year by a landslide.
We’ve seen what republicans do to the economy – now we need to give Dems a chance to clean up the “GOP” mess.
53 Cyn
Even when you ahave been proven wrong you keep on lying. How…Republican of you.
Republicans want Washington state to turn into Mississippi.
51 PM
Fourth hurdle–he’s behind.