A new poll in the Washington state gubernatorial race has Dino Rossi (“G.O.P. Party”) leading Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) for the first time since February.
This race is a rematch of the 2004 contest that Gregoire won 133 votes out of 2.8 million votes.
The SurveyUSA poll sampled 658 people. Gregoire received 47.4% support, Rossi received 48.2% support, 2.9% preferred another candidate, and 1.5% were undecided. The poll was taken between the 5th and 7th of September, on the heels of the Republican National Convention that ended on September 4th. The poll’s margin of error is ± 3.9%.
Prior to this poll, Rossi had not held the lead for fifteen consecutive polls, stretching back to late February. One July poll had found the race tied.
Clearly, Rossi’s new lead is well within the margin of error. Even so, the evidence offered by this poll gives Rossi a higher probability of winning. (All statisticians mean by “statistical tie” is that the poll leader’s probability of winning is less than 95%.)
We can empirically determine the probability that either Rossi or Gregoire would win an election held now using a Monte Carlo analysis.
A million simulated elections gives Gregoire 440,892 wins and Rossi 548,161 wins. These results suggest that, if the election were held now, Rossi would have a 55.4% probability of winning and Gregoire would have a 44.6% probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes resulting from the simulation.
The poll results could reflect a couple of things. The obvious possibility is that Rossi has benefited from a post-convention bounce. Or maybe a post-convention bump—time will tell. The bounce/bump possibility is supported by the observation that the same poll found the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain tightened-up to a narrow 49% to 45% lead for Obama. The previous poll was the August SurveyUSA poll that gave Obama a stronger 51% to 44% lead.
The second possibility is that this is a post Democratic Convention bounce for Rossi. The Rossi campaign ran advertisements that sandwiched Obama’s acceptance speech, offering Rossi’s local version of Obama’s message of change.
This leads one to wonder…Given Rossi’s implicit endorsement of Obama’s theme, will he vote for Obama in November? Don’t bother asking him, though. It’s probably not an issue he wants to talk about.
(Cross posted on Hominid Views.)
I’m absolutely pissed that Gregoire seems to have been standing still with this campaign. Looking at Rossi’s smarmy mug on TV is bad enough… but can you at least TRY, Christine?
It is growing frustrating as we watch the gov’s campaign stuck in low gear. The Times today ran a story about where the two, Rossi and Gregoire are in terms of social issues. I find it interesting that the press terms Rossi as a moderate but classifies Palin as a conservative when they have the same views. Someone should detail the votes and unilateral actions she has taken as an example of what we would see if Rossi were elected. It should also be pointed out how Palin has taken strong positions against regional Salmon policy, global warming, drilling and the environment.
The recent numbers suggest that for a segment of the non male voting public, the Palin candidacy is cause to come “home” to the republican party even when casting a vote for Gov in our state.
This is a just the latest reflection of the Gov’s failing campaign.
Paging Christine Gregoire… Christine Gregoire, please report to your campaign.
I’m not sure this is a correct implementation of a Monte Carlo analysis. Elections and voting aren’t random events. You can’t say “Rossi would have a 55.4% probability of winning and Gregoire would have a 44.6% probability of winning” because neither event is probabilistic.
If these trends continue, I’m going to build myself a bridge to nowhere and jump the hell off.
Prof. Shenkman’s book, “Just How Stupid Are We?: Facing the Truth About the American Voter,” is looking more relevant every day.
How can any thinking voter prefer Rossi over Gregoire? We truly are becoming a nation of idiots. Well, the Republican half of us, anyway.
If Rossi wins, we will have a chaotic state government. Every agency and program will be disrupted. There will be endless fights with the legislature. And nothing will get done. None of the public’s needs will be met. And there won’t be any tax cuts — just buckets of money shoveled at private contractors to do everything from running our prisons to collecting child support. And none of those things will be done well. And yes, he’ll fuck with the election process, trying to rig it in favor of Republicans, instead of the fair and nonpartisan election system we have now.
It’ll be another made-in-GOP clusterfuck.
Don’t build that bridge just yet. The Gov’s campaign could still find its legs. Perhaps a shakeup will bring that about. For all I know, a creative, adapting and comprehensive plan is in place. A plan that factors in the Palin effect and takes the race to Rossi even when the press has been gutted such that they will not be a factor. If we let Rossi sell voters his sizzle and run out the clock without being defined then save some room on that bridge.
We just need to face this:
Gregoire will lose.
Obama will lose, he’s Kerry part 2.
The republicans are just much better than the democrats are this game.
Much much better.
Rossi is ahead because he has effective (albeit false) ads, and Gregoire doesn’t. She’s never been a very good campaigner, and still isn’t. But being an effective campaigner won’t make Rossi a good governor. If he wins, it’ll be a disaster for our state.
8 Too bad that once they’ve lied, cheated, caged, hacked and stolen their way into office, they’re so shitty at actually governing.
@5 The outcome won’t affect me much. Soon, there won’t be a job left in this country that pays more than $8 an hour or has any benefits, but I don’t need a job. If the Repubs win, I’ll continue to enjoy Republican tax breaks that reward lazy oafs like me for not working and punish workers. At a personal level, I can go either way with this. I prefer responsible government, and one which won’t blow everything up, but hey an America reduced to rubble offers business opportunities to investors like me.
9 + 10 are both right.
We live in a fucked up time for this country.
Holy shit… is that fucking idiot Biden stepping down? Sure sounds like it:
“NASHUA, New Hampshire (CNN) — Joe Biden told supporters at a town hall Wednesday afternoon that Barack Obama might have been better off choosing Hillary Clinton as his running mate.
“Make no mistake about this, Hillary Clinton is as qualified or more qualified than I am to be vice president of the United States of America. Let’s get that straight,” Biden said testily when a voter told Biden he was glad the Delaware senator had been chosen and not Clinton.
“She’s a truly close personal friend and she is qualified to be President of the United States of America, she’s easily qualified to be Vice President of the United States of America and quite frankly it might have been a better pick than me,” he continued.
“She’s first rate. No, I mean that sincerely, she’s first rate.”
@11 I hate to break it to you but everyone
cant work for the government. That is the only
jobs democrats produce if you can call it that.
Then there are the union workers. How come when they build or remodel their own homes they dont use union labor? Why is this?
I really need to know.
13–and yet all the ‘conventional wisdom’ and/or party line spewing Dems like Goldy were and are all in favor of the Biden pick.
Darryl
This is an “I told you so” message.
Gov. Gregoire has not established herself in the public’s eye as a leader. On issue after issue, the best one can see of her is as an administrative presence.
Moreover, her personal skills at wholesale politics are less than outstanding. Debate might help except, if this like the last campaign, the debates will only be “broadcast” on what I call “short wave” TV .. that is the assorted public access channels no one watches. Moreover, at least in the SJ focus group (n=2) Dino trounced Gregoire.
She does have, imo, one option .. that is to play Palin card. If she came out and castigated McCain as making a sexist choice and dissed the Alaskans for befitting by placing a state tax on oil that benefited from the high oil prices by passing it onto the rest of the states, this would strengthen Gregoire amongst us libruls and amongst anti-taxers.
@4 ds53: Take a look at the FAQ:
http://hominidviews.com/?page_id=1354
He’s basically doing a single-state variation of the EV voting simulation. It looks good to me.
Mark The Redneck,
“Holy shit… is that fucking idiot Biden stepping down? Sure sounds like it”
That’s the problem with you Wingding dumbfucks. You make shit up and then convince yourself that it’s true.
What a fucking loser.
ds53,
“I’m not sure this is a correct implementation of a Monte Carlo analysis. Elections and voting aren’t random events. “
The stochastic nature of the problem arises because the poll relied on a sample to approximate the election. The distribution of election outcomes arise out of that sampling error.
“You can’t say “Rossi would have a 55.4% probability of winning and Gregoire would have a 44.6% probability of winning” because neither event is probabilistic.”
Yes, in fact, I can. The probabilistic outcome reflects the uncertainty from polling a relatively small sample.
Pelletizer: Is there a $X Billion Deficit in the WA State budget?
If so who is in charge?
If not she wins hands down.
Gregoire is a pip with no campaigning skills.
Sad.
He is Mr. Zero – “I don’t work that issue”
Jesus
Washington has a billion plus surplus stashed, thanks to Gregoire.
Why bother trying when you know you’re going to steal the election.
Even the liberal new york times knows that unions are screwing them over by forcing them to pay a lot of $$ for jobs that kids can do.
http://www.alleyinsider.com/20.....s-550-jobs
It’s just a matter of time until Biden has “personal” problems and pulls out of the campaign.
Obama needs hillary, will she want to rescue the hopes of the democrat party being #2 under obama? Nope, she will wait until 2012 and then remind the democrat party how badly obama failed.
Besides for bringing the experience into the campaign that obama doesn’t have, what else does he offer. He won what, 1% of the votes in the primary? Something like 3% of the primary votes in his own state?
The obama campaign is crashing and burning. I’m getting some popcorn and waiting for the fat lady to start singing.
Darryl,
I give you credit for posting this poll. I had wondered whether you would. To your credit, you’re being even-handed in the reporting of poll results.
Cheers.
In addition to being a fucking idiot, the main problem Biden has is that he’s also up for election for his Senate seat. He can’t possibly run two campaigns and clearly the VP gig isn’t going to work out as Obama collapses. He runs the risk of losing both and being out of the picture completely.
So he’ll make up some bullshit about being able to serve better as a moonbat senator than as VP, and move aside for The Smartest Woman In The World to take his place.
Ya heard it here first…
Hey Goldy, every day me and Dutch and Mr. Cynical and the other rghtwingers come onto this blog and ridicule you asnd your beliefs and turn these threads into a sewer and along comes a sockpuppet to make fun of us and you delete all his posts. But our posts criticizing you are allowed to remain. You FUCKING LIBERALS ARE FUCKING WIMP ASS LOSERS. You will not fight. You have no fucking spine. there is nothing to you but talk. We rightwingers will be back tomorrow to smear you and your beliefs and you will eat it up. Hell if enough of us start posting you’ll pay for more bandwidth. Absolutely fucking incredible. You think this shit would fly on a rightwing blog. Hell no! We have balls!
Truth is she hasn’t been running for Governor, she acts more like she is positioning for an AG or other job in an Obama administration.
It’s time for her double dipping magic guv pensions to kick in.
She ain’t getting any younger!
Holy shit….
Now Charlie Rangel has admitted he concealed income from the IRS and owes back taxes.
The chair of Ways and Means says he didn’t understand the tax law. RUFKM? No. It’s about par for the course for a librul fucking idiot.
“Mr. Rangel, a Harlem Democrat who is chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, has owned the beachfront house at the Punta Cana resort and club since 1988, but never declared the $75,000 in rental income he has earned either on his tax returns or on his Congressional financial disclosure form.” – NYT
Obviously he needs to resign as chair of Ways and Means, and an independent prosecutor needs to be named to investigate this and all aspects of his personal finances.
Gregoire’s campaign manager doesn’t believe in yard signs, because the money is better spent on TV and radio.
So I drive around Spokane and see nothing but Dino Rossi’s “Don’t Let Seattle Steal This Election!” bullshit, then I turn on the Mariner’s game and see it sponsored by Dino Rossi.
It’s not the fact that Gregoire is a shitty campaigner that drives me nuts–it’s the fact that she can’t even seem to get people in place to help cover her weaknesses in that regard.
She might as well serve the election up to Dino, because right now it’s like she isn’t even trying.
“Gregoire’s campaign manager doesn’t believe in yard signs,…”
It does seem that Gregoire is trying to lose, in a passive aggressive way.
Now Charlie Rangel has admitted he concealed income from the IRS and owes back taxes.
NOW can you conservatives who were yammering that Rangel was shut out of the convention, see why?
It appears Gregoire is so overwhelmed by the Budget Fiasco she created, that she wants out.
She has boxed herself in with “favors”. The chickens have come home to roost.
Say Good-Bye!
You KLOWNS want her to win much more than she does.
Was the grand kleagle, robert byrd, also shut out of the convention or was it due to his principles he didn’t show up.
I bet that this graph sent Dwight (I love Fidel) Putz-Pelz and the WA Dems leadership out for a major fuckin’ purchase of heartburn medicine!. I hear they created a run on Mylanta!
13 MTR
Right. This is another case where a Republican, who CANNOT IMAGINE anyone saying anything favorable about someone else without an ulterior motives (because no Republican ever would), projects his own proclivities onto someone else. Happens all the time.
No, MTR, Joe was just paying Hillary a compliment.
Here’s the best indicator about how a McCain-Palin administration would handle the corruption they will INEVITABLY cause: shut down the investigations.
Mr. Cynical @ 33
I am afraid I have to rate this race as Rossi by 1 to 3 points right now. You folks at the BIAW headquarters must be having a victory celebration already …
I am sure Rossi will be out after four years, when he is unable to deliver …