Last Thursday, I was a guest on the Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast post-election edition. The host, Sam Minter, does his own polling aggregation site at ElectionGraphs.com. Along with co-host Iván Bou, we discuss the polling results from the election, our own final predictions and how they fared with other such sites for the first part of the podcast.
For the second part of the podcast, we explored the causes and consequences of the “greatest upset in electoral history,” and examine some possible responses to a single-party government.
Listen to the podcast here.
I’ve got my dirty tricks crowd already working on bringing Trump down. We’ll find some good juicy dirt to get him to resign or to use to impeach him.
When Trump gets removed or resigns, Pence will be easy to beat in 2020. I’ll be back in the political spotlight soon.
Hard to do a lot of that, Hillary, when you’re sitting in a prison cell!
@2 The latest version of a rightwing wet dream.
The big takeaway: analyzing bad polls leads to bad results. The polls were mostly bad (only a few, like the Dornsife poll, got it right).
Looking at the internals, they were all pretty failed, usually from massively underweighting GOP participation in terms of likely voters. One only needed to look at the size of the rallies – tens of thousands for Trump, dozens for Hillary – to realize there was a big issue in terms of active political participation.
Having a few big-name polls get it completely wrong led to an echo chamber in the media, and that reinforced polls. You want your poll to be mentioned and to be able to sell the data? You need to seem “realistic” which means line up with the other failed polls.
It came down to motivation of supporters; Trump had it, Hillary did not. Trump got the same number of votes as McCain and Romney. Hillary shed around 9 million votes from Obama. She would have won if she could actually draw any enthusiasm. But – she couldn’t. It was all about “I’m a woman/I’m not Trump”. No reason to vote FOR her, just reasons to vote against her main opponent.
Enthusiasm won the day for Trump – and most of the polls ignored that. That’s why the polls were wrong – and why your processing of the polls (like that of Nate Silver) was wrong. They totally missed the most important factor: enthusiasm.
@3:
Probably the only way she avoids a trial and conviction is if Obama pardons her. However, if he does that, his own legacy is forever stained – and he’s a vain individual who already sees much of his legacy being removed via promised actions of Trump.
So the dilemma: does Hillary have enough on Obama to coerce him into giving her a pardon, or does he want to risk what information she’ll leak in an attempt to keep his legacy clean of the stench of a Hillary pardon?
Remember, Scooter Libby actually went to prison for much less than what Hillary did…
@4 “(like that of Nate Silver)”
Shows how little you know. Silver is not a pollster, he’s a statistician who crunches data collected by pollsters.
@ 6
Shows how poorly you comprehend, Roger Dumbfuck Rabbit. @ 4 didn’t say Silver is a pollster. He said Silver processes polls. That’s after the fact.
Maybe one of these days you’ll be correct. I won’t be around to know about it, but maybe.
@7 No, he didn’t. He was talking about “the polls (like that of Nate Silver).” The meaning of this is clear to literate people; but not, I suppose, to a fuckface like you.
@8:
Sloppy is right. Read the sentence in its entirety:
“That’s why the polls were wrong – and why your processing of the polls (like that of Nate Silver) was wrong.”
The processing of the polls, like that (processing) of Nate Silver, was wrong. Garbage in, and the processing yields garbage. Much like what you spew – garbage!
Responses to single party governance. Hmmm shouldn’t they be allowed to govern? That is the object of parliamentarian democracy. The party in power gets to govern. It’s of course a tyranny of the majority. Which is part of the reason our Constitution is the way it is. I think it would be best to pick battles rather than a whole sale fight.
I remember seeing someone on here griping the Trump boys never registered for the draft. It’s rather amazing that 92% of men actually register since the last time there was a prosecution was in the late 80’s or early 90’s. Did you know illegal aliens who are male between 18 and 26 are supposed to register for the draft. Something the new administration can keep under its hat. It’s a five year sentence and $250,000. I’m sure those wanting a green card, or to enjoy college loans ect have actually registered. Still I would suspect a large percentage have not. I doubt that cayote’s tell young men coming over the river ohh you need to stop by the post office and register with the selective service within 10 days.
Obama can’t pardon me because that implies I did something wrong. I can’t come back after a pardon because my brand will be tainted. No one will vote for me if I get a presidential pardon.
I know Ford pardoned Nixon, but that was after Nixon was forced out of office. Nixon never intended to return to any elected position. I still want the glory of being to lord over some of the population through elected office.
And the joke you voted for just this past Nov 8 isn’t?
For a bullshitting con-man and sex predator. The wow factor in an infotainment age. Truly impressed.
And who won the popular vote again?
@13:
How does the popular vote matter for the election?
Get used to saying “President Trump” starting January 20, 2017!
@14 It seemed to matter a lot to the always wrong wing in 1992…
I saw my first “impeach hillary” bumper sticker not even 6 mos after Bill won.
No asshole – normalcy is not an option.
@15: IIRC, President Clinton had more votes that President Bush. So it’s not the same situation.
And of course, “Bill and Hill” consistently sold themselves as “buy one get one free” kind of leadership, that she would be a co-President.
Get used to saying President Trump starting January, 20, 2017! Whether you like it or not – he’ll be YOUR President, too…
@16 You’re pretty obtuse. It’s obvious to anyone with a brain that the dittoheads, etc back then did not see Clinton as legitimate. Remember Ross Perot?
Nope no President of mine. You all didn’t like Clinton. You never accepted him and you had no compunction about impeaching him over his fumbling attempts to cover for his personal behavior. Idiots like the insane hypocrite Dan Burton and his unhinged pursuit of Clinton is an example of this.
You deserve nothing more. Accepting Trump is accepting that he’s a mainstream politician. He’s anything but. We will not accept someone who ran for autocrat. Never.
@17: Per Gallup. 84% of the population accept President Trump. I guess you’re part of the unhinged Left. No rational thought from you.
President Clinton, like President Obama, was my President. I did not vote for him, and I did not support much of what he did – but he was still my President as he led the nation as he was elected to do.
But then, I’m rational…
Get used to hearing President Trump!