The Democrats would still be unlikely to take the Senate in an election held today. Nevertheless the Republicans have lost ground since the previous analysis. Ten days ago Democrats had an 11.8% chance of taking the Senate. Today their chances are nearly 30%.
After 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 4934 times, there were 24613 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 70453 times. Democrats have a 29.5% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 70.5% probability of controlling the Senate. This analysis assumes that the Vice President will be a Democrat.
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
- 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 29.5%, Republicans control the Senate 70.5%.
- Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 49.0 ( 1.0)
- Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 51.0 ( 1.0)
- Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 49 (47, 51)
- Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 51 (49, 53)
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
- Democratic seats w/no election: 35
- Independent seats w/no election: one
- Republican seats w/no election: 30
- Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: nine
- Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 20
- Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
- Contested Republican seats likely to switch: four
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Democrat | 43 | |||
| Strong Democrat | 3 | 46 | ||
| Leans Democrat | 3 | 3 | 49 | |
| Weak Democrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 49 |
| Weak Republican | 1 | 1 | 1 | 51 |
| Leans Republican | 0 | 0 | 50 | |
| Strong Republican | 7 | 50 | ||
| Safe Republican | 43 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| # | Sample | % | % | Dem | Rep/th> | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | @ | polls | size | Dem | Rep | % wins | % wins |
| AL | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AK | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AZ | 2 | 1389 | 45.2 | 54.8 | 0.5 | 99.5 | |
| AR | 2 | 1142 | 36.9 | 63.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| CA | 3 | 1966 | 62.8 | 37.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| CO | 3 | 1377 | 55.0 | 45.0 | 99.5 | 0.5 | |
| CT | 1 | 872 | 61.7 | 38.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| FL | 8 | 4619 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| GA | 6 | 2849 | 40.5 | 59.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| HI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| ID | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| IL | 2 | 1023 | 52.0 | 48.0 | 81.1 | 18.9 | |
| IN | 1 | 504 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 77.2 | 22.8 | |
| IA | 4 | 2294 | 44.4 | 55.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| KS | 1 | 495 | 40.4 | 59.6 | 0.2 | 99.8 | |
| KY | 1& | 440 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 2.1 | 97.9 | |
| LA | 1 | 794 | 34.6 | 65.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| MD | 2 | 1019 | 68.6 | 31.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MO | 3 | 2530 | 47.2 | 52.8 | 2.6 | 97.4 | |
| NV | 5 | 2843 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 9.3 | 90.7 | |
| NH | 6 | 3450 | 49.8 | 50.2 | 43.5 | 56.5 | |
| NY | 1 | 671 | 72.1 | 27.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NC | 9 | 6027 | 48.8 | 51.2 | 9.0 | 91.0 | |
| ND | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| OH | 7 | 4656 | 42.0 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OK | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| OR | 1 | 403 | 55.1 | 44.9 | 92.5 | 7.5 | |
| PA | 7 | 4143 | 50.8 | 49.2 | 78.3 | 21.7 | |
| SC | 1& | 941 | 38.4 | 61.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| SD | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| UT | 1& | 678 | 27.9 | 72.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| VT | 1 | 544 | 62.3 | 37.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| WA | 1& | 430 | 60.5 | 39.5 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| WI | 6 | 3830 | 55.2 | 44.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
