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Poll Analysis: Romney squeaks out a little more

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Obama Romney
99.2% probability of winning 0.8% probability of winning
Mean of 313 electoral votes Mean of 225 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney with a mean of 321 to 217 electoral votes, and a 99.4% probability of winning an election held now.

Since then, eighteen new polls covering fourteen states have been released:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO Rasmussen 06-Jun 06-Jun 500 4.5 45 45 tie
CO Purple Poll 31-May 05-Jun 600 4.0 48 46 O+2
CT Quinnipiac 29-May 03-Jun 1408 2.6 50 38 O+12
FL Purple Poll 31-May 05-Jun 600 4.0 45 49 R+4
FL PPP 31-May 03-Jun 642 3.9 50 46 O+4
IA Rasmussen 11-Jun 11-Jun 500 4.5 46 47 R+1
MI EPIC/MRA 02-Jun 05-Jun 600 — 45 46 R+1
MN PPP 31-May 03-Jun 973 3.1 54 39 O+15
MO Rasmussen 07-Jun 07-Jun 500 4.5 42 49 R+7
NY Siena 03-Jun 06-Jun 807 3.4 59 35 O+24
NC PPP 07-Jun 10-Jun 810 3.4 46 48 R+2
ND Mason-Dixon 04-Jun 06-Jun 625 4.5 39 52 R+13
OH Purple Poll 31-May 05-Jun 600 4.0 45 48 R+3
PA Quinnipiac 05-Jun 06-Jun 997 3.1 46 40 O+6
PA Franklin & Marshall 29-May 04-Jun 412 4.8 48 36 O+12
VA Purple Poll 31-May 05-Jun 600 4.0 49 46 O+3
VA Quinnipiac 30-May 04-Jun 1282 2.7 47 42 O+5
WI We Ask America 06-Jun 06-Jun 1270 2.8 48 43 O+5


I’ll skip a discussion of Connecticut, Minnesota, New York, and North Dakota.

Colorado is all tied up in one poll, and has Obama leading by +2% in another. So far, Romney has never led in the state over the nine polls going back to February 2011.

In Florida, Romney leads by +4% and Obama leads by +4% in another. Something similar happened with the previous pair of polls. The state looks like a toss-up:
ObamaRomney12May12-12Jun12Florida

Iowa supports Romney over Obama by +1%. The clear lead Obama held eight months ago is looking less clear:
ObamaRomney12May12-12Jun12Iowa

Michigan gives Romney a miniscule +1% (46% to 45%) lead over Obama. This breaks Obama’s streak of leading in the previous seven polls going back to last November.

Missouri gives Romney a +7%, continuing the trend of a small Romney edge for the state: ObamaRomney12May12-12Jun12Missouri

Romney takes the lead (+2%) in the most recent North Carolina poll. In fact, the last month of polling in the state has not been kind to Obama:
ObamaRomney12May12-12Jun12North Carolina

In Ohio, Obama had a winning streak in 10 consecutive polls. And then the last two have gone to Romney. It’s too early to suggest the trend is real, but it may well be!
ObamaRomney12May12-12Jun12Ohio

Pennsylvania continues to be surprisingly strong for Obama. He leads Romney by +6% and +12% in the two most recent polls, making his winning streak 12 consecutive polls.

In Virginia, Obama maintains a small advantage, leading Romney by +3% in one poll and +5% in a second:

ObamaRomney12May12-12Jun12Virginia

The first post-recall election poll in Wisconsin keeps Obama in the lead by a modest +5%.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,220 times and Romney wins 780 times (including the 149 ties). Obama receives (on average) 313 to Romney’s 225 electoral votes. Romney gains +0.2% probability, leaving Obama with a 99.2% chance of winning a hypothetical election held now.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 306 electoral votes with a 2.94% probability
  • 307 electoral votes with a 2.69% probability
  • 312 electoral votes with a 2.36% probability
  • 313 electoral votes with a 2.33% probability
  • 310 electoral votes with a 2.15% probability
  • 300 electoral votes with a 2.14% probability
  • 317 electoral votes with a 2.09% probability
  • 309 electoral votes with a 1.98% probability
  • 316 electoral votes with a 1.95% probability
  • 301 electoral votes with a 1.92% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 99.2%, Romney wins 0.8%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 312.9 (20.3)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 225.1 (20.3)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 311 (276, 354)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 227 (184, 262)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Obama 119
Strong Obama 137 256
Leans Obama 50 50 306
Weak Obama 0 0 0 306
Weak Romney 7 7 7 232
Leans Romney 69 69 225
Strong Romney 112 156
Safe Romney 44

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

0 0 EC # Total % % Obama Romney
8 4 Votes polls Votes Obama Romney % wins % wins
AL 9 1* 754 37.8 62.2 0.0 100.0
AK 3 0* (0) (100)
AZ 11 1 465 46.2 53.8 12.3 87.7
AR 6 1* 679 36.8 63.2 0.0 100.0
CA 55 4 3761 59.9 40.1 100.0 0.0
CO 9 4 2452 51.1 48.9 79.2 20.8
CT 7 1 1239 56.8 43.2 99.9 0.1
DE 3 0 (100) (0)
DC 3 0 (100) (0)
FL 29 4 3611 49.3 50.7 29.1 70.9
GA 16 1 404 43.3 56.7 3.0 97.0
HI 4 1* 517 64.8 35.2 100.0 0.0
ID 4 0* (0) (100)
IL 20 1* 546 61.5 38.5 100.0 0.0
IN 11 1* 447 45.0 55.0 6.9 93.1
IA 6 2 1371 49.8 50.2 45.4 54.6
KS 6 1* 442 45.0 55.0 6.6 93.4
KY 8 1* 528 45.5 54.5 7.2 92.8
LA 8 1* 542 41.1 58.9 0.2 99.8
ME 2 1* 552 54.3 45.7 92.5 7.5
ME1 1 1* 488 64.8 35.2 100.0 0.0
ME2 1 1* 421 53.7 46.3 85.8 14.2
MD 10 1 792 62.4 37.6 100.0 0.0
MA 11 3 1533 61.1 38.9 100.0 0.0
MI 16 2 1098 53.6 46.4 94.9 5.1
MN 10 1 904 58.1 41.9 100.0 0.0
MS 6 1* 717 40.0 60.0 0.0 100.0
MO 10 2 991 48.5 51.5 25.4 74.6
MT 3 1* 428 46.3 53.7 13.5 86.5
NE 2 1 460 42.4 57.6 1.1 98.9
NE1 1 1* 389 45.5 54.5 10.6 89.4
NE2 1 1* 252 49.6 50.4 47.3 52.7
NE3 1 1* 284 35.9 64.1 0.0 100.0
NV 6 1 936 51.1 48.9 67.4 32.6
NH 4 1* 1093 56.4 43.6 99.9 0.1
NJ 14 1* 1392 55.7 44.3 100.0 0.0
NM 5 1 417 57.8 42.2 98.9 1.1
NY 29 2 2066 63.8 36.2 100.0 0.0
NC 15 4 2244 48.6 51.4 16.5 83.5
ND 3 1 569 42.9 57.1 0.9 99.1
OH 18 3 1945 50.7 49.3 65.8 34.2
OK 7 1* 448 30.4 69.6 0.0 100.0
OR 7 1* 1327 52.0 48.0 84.2 15.8
PA 20 4 2262 54.3 45.7 99.8 0.2
RI 4 1* 495 59.4 40.6 99.8 0.2
SC 9 1* 1833 51.7 48.3 84.3 15.7
SD 3 1* 442 44.3 55.7 4.8 95.2
TN 11 1* 654 46.0 54.0 7.7 92.3
TX 38 1* 460 38.9 61.1 0.1 99.9
UT 6 1* 688 33.0 67.0 0.0 100.0
VT 3 1* 528 67.8 32.2 100.0 0.0
VA 13 4 3128 52.0 48.0 94.3 5.7
WA 12 1 455 56.0 44.0 96.7 3.3
WV 5 1* 373 40.8 59.2 0.8 99.2
WI 10 5 3409 53.1 46.9 99.4 0.6
WY 3 0 (0) (100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Comments

  1. 1

    Wow! Rmoney is coming up in the world! He’s now higher than my bank’s savings interest rate!

  2. 2

    Hey, if the media bias helped in Berlusconi Italy by 2 to 5.5 points, I bet media bias in America works similarly. Remember low intelligence voters are DUMMOCRAPTS.

    Low information voters… The DUMMOCRAPT friends. Low information voters…

    It may only take a small percentage of the overall voting group who base their decision on the inaccurate information, a voter block of 10 to 12%, to swing an overall election result. When this happens, the constituency at large may have been duped or fooled.

    DUMMOCRAPTS have no idea what is job growth. They hear the weekly jobs number and think it’s great. They never hear the previous week’s downgraded number the next week. From Gallup

    Republicans were significantly more likely than independents or, particularly, Democrats to describe the jobs report as negative. Democrats were most inclined to describe it as mixed.

    I guess 60,000 jobs a month is a great thing if you are DUMMOCRAPT! Hence the higher poll numbers for Obummer across America. They reject anything about Obummer’s history. Low information voters will sway this election. Low information voters… lots of them leftists on this blog!

  3. 3

    No worries – Obama will win in November, and it’ll all be OK.

  4. 4

    “If I tell them my intentions, I won’t get elected.”
    – Mitt Romney

    From Huff:
    “The former Massachusetts governor, appearing on Fox and Friends Tuesday morning, was asked to respond to charges made by the Obama campaign that he would slash those specific government jobs.

    “That’s a very strange accusation. Of course teachers, and firemen, and policemen are hired at the local level and also by states. The federal government doesn’t pay for teachers, firefighters, or policemen. So obviously that is completely absurd,” said Romney.”

    This guy is either the stupidest human being in the country, or the worst pathological liars we’ve ever seen run for office. He makes Dubbia Bush look almost rational.

  5. 5

    Puddy,
    Ah, I was going to say something to you to try to educate you, but I decided better of it. Facts don’t much matter to you, nor does reason. And, I’ve come to recognize you’re not terribly fond of reality. But, hey, I still love ya!

  6. 6

    Owebamma is losing support on a daily basis, read the news, even the Owebamma girl has lost her lust for this idiot…..

  7. 7

    yd
    Idiocy at your level requires training. Any chance you could share with us your training regimen?

  9. 9

    A 40% loss in net worth for Americans and a 7.7% loss in wages might wake you people up, but I doubt it. These are not my facts they are the government’s facts! He is a complete and utter idiot!

  10. 10

    15.8 Trillion and counting, with no plan in place to deal with this massive spending spree, despite special committee after special committee who say it must be addressed

  11. 11

    Jesus H fuckin tapdancing Christ. When are we going to see a single, rational argument from anyone calling themselves a “conservative”?

    You people are seriously mentally ill.

  12. 12

    What would be enough for you libs? 30 trillion, 100 trillion, could you give all your freebies out with 200 trillion?

  13. 13

    Interest rates in the tank, bond rates in the tank, Cd rates in the tank, Home values in the tank, wages falling like a rock.

    Where are you going to get all the money to pay back these continual trillion and a half dollar endless deficits?

  14. 14

    According to the Feds, in the last three years alone, OWEBAMMA”S Term. families are pushed back to the wealth they had in the 90’s. They are bringing home 7.7% LESS BACON, while funding his lavish lifestyle

  15. 15

    Facts don’t much matter to you

    How true proud leftist is of himself… I put forth the Gallup poll, the DUMMOCRAPTIC responses, and he rejects it. I have been offering media bias gives Obummer 3-5% points due to low information voters and provide a credible study. So who is rejecting facts? Proud Leftist!

    Proud Leftist, another low information voter.

  16. 16

    deathfrogg–
    Still using your Saul Alinsky tactics I see.
    yd and Puddy put forth a series of facts…and you say they are putting forth no facts.
    If they aren’t facts, refute them.
    Instead, like Saul Alinsky, you marginalize and minimize…and look like the idiot you are.
    Puddy is right. Last election, MoveOn went to college campuses spreading the rumor Obama would cancel student loans. Didn’t happen, did it. Now Obama’s MoveOn folks are doing the same thing again, preying on our youth and some of their greedy basic instincts.

    deathfrogg..you suck!
    You are a poor excuse for Saul Alinsky frankly.

  17. 17

    The wingnuts know that their talking points are crazy. They are just flaunting before you the fact that the lies work to create fear in the electorate.

    The most destructive evil in the world is banal and based upon ignorance and stupidity. We’ve destroyed their talking points time after time, yet 30 seconds later, they repeat it as if it were brand new.

    But our point is equally simple (except ours is true): Republicans are greedheads and monsters who are in thrall to the rich.

  19. 19

    And as American’s begin to understand the political strategy of Obama’s regime leaking that critical security information, the disgust will grow. Obama shows no concern about the seriousness of the leaks, only about his re-election. Americans will see this sick bastard for who he is.

  20. 20

    Saul Alinsky tactics

    Caribou Barbie is BAAACCKK!

    yd and Puddy put forth a series of facts…

    Let’s look, shall we?

    I guess 60,000 jobs a month is a great thing if you are DUMMOCRAPT!

    No, but it beats losing >700000 a month, which is what Republican policies brought us last time we tried them.

    15.8 Trillion and counting

    What would be enough for you libs? 30 trillion, 100 trillion, could you give all your freebies out with 200 trillion?

    According to the Feds, in the last three years alone, OWEBAMMA”S Term. families are pushed back to the wealth they had in the 90’s.

    Lies, mischaracterization, utter stupidity. Once again, when dealing with you trolls, it comes to, “Stupid or lying?”

    The Fed study on wealth was 2007-2010, half Bush, half Obama, and was a consequence of the Bush Depression. Moreover, a separate Fed study showed wealth had increased from the bottom of the recession to the present by 28%.

    Is the economy fixed? Not by a mile, and certainly not by anything that treasonous, economy-sabotaging Republicans have done.

    Here’s Lawrence Summers on borrowing costs:

    To come up with a viable solution, consider the remarkable level of interest rates in much of the industrialized world. The U.S. government can borrow in nominal terms at about 0.5 percent for five years, 1.5 percent for 10 years, and 2.5 percent for 30 years….

    Even more remarkable are the interest rates on inflation-protected bonds. In real terms, the world is prepared to pay the U.S. more than 100 basis points to store its money for five years and more than 50 basis points for 10 years. Maturities would have to reach more than 20 years before the interest rates on indexed bonds become positive….

    These low rates on even long maturities mean that markets are offering the opportunity to lock in low long-term borrowing costs. In the U.S., for example, the government could commit to borrowing five-year money in five years at a nominal cost of about 2.5 percent and at a real cost very close to zero.

    Borrowing costs are negative – that means free money, idiot – for the US Government. What that means, in a Depression, is that the government needs to borrow heavily, hire gozillions of people, and build infrastructure and capital improvements – INVESTMENTS that will pay returns for decades to come. If we don’t, the Depression goes on and we have forfeited a MASSIVE opportunity.

  21. 21

    @ 19

    That “leak” came right out of Cornwyns office. Interesting how Issa and Cornwyn knew about it a full two days before it actually happened.

  22. 22

    @21
    Yep, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if it turns out the ‘leak’ came from the office of a GOP member of one of the Intel committees.

    But hey, it’s OK because you’ll just blame a democratic president of doing it deliberately for political purposes.

  24. 24

    @19
    You keep telling yourself that but I think you are going to be sadly disappointed in November.

    Leaks are something that gets the beltway cocktail circuit crowd all in a tizzy, but really out in the rest of the country most people could give two shits about inside baseball crap like this.

  25. 25

    Apropos ‘bob”s comment yesterday, including a 1993 NYT piece predicting DOOM AND GLOOM from the Clinton-era tax hike, from the same link as 23 above:

    And you might find this plausible if you spent the past two decades sleeping in a cave somewhere. If you didn’t, you probably remember that the same people now telling us what great things tax cuts would do for growth assured us that Bill Clinton’s tax increase in 1993 would lead to economic disaster, while George W. Bush’s tax cuts in 2001 would create vast prosperity.

  27. 27

    The lunatics from the Left are really funny. Making up a vast right-wing conspiracy that the leak came from George Bush’s guys!
    Hey idiots, the benefactor of the leaks said it came from numerous WHITE HOUSE sources.
    But let’s keep talking about it. The truth will certainly come out..hopefully a couple days before the ballots go out!

    In the meantime, you whackjobs are so desperate that your reliable lunatic, Joy Behar, is now screeching mean-spirited venom–

    TV personality Joy Behar is attacking Mitt Romney for disagreeing with President Obama’s recent call to hire more firemen and other public-sector workers, saying she would like to see one of his homes catch fire.
    “I’d like to see his house burn, one of his millions of houses burning down,” said Behar, a co-host on ABC’s “The View” daytime talk show. “Who’s he going to call, the Mormon fire patrol?”

    This kind of talk will excite the 16% that are in love with Obama’s Marxist agenda..but alienate more of the Independents.
    Give Joy a mike and let her keep talking!!
    It’s about directing the Independents to your candidate. They will decide.
    Hey, maybe Joy is a stealth Bush supporter??
    Part of the Bush team.
    Yeah baby…
    Right Chris?
    Bush is everywhere!

  28. 28

    @2 “Hey, if the media bias helped in Berlusconi Italy by 2 to 5.5 points, I bet media bias in America works similarly.”

    Berlusconi’s political career was helped by the fact he owned Italy’s media. (Ya think?!) The GOP doesn’t have quite that advantage here in the States, but they have the next best thing: The U.S. media are owned by rich righwing white guys. Always has been, always will be. “Liberal” media bias? Ya gotta be kidding, unless you consider anything to the left of Mussolini as “liberal.”

  29. 29

    @27 “Obama’s Marxist agenda”

    Wall Street won a two-fer with this one: They put one of their guys in the White House, and got the Main Streeters they’re ripping off to call him a “Marxist,” so they’re hating on him instead of them.

  30. 30

    @9 “A 40% loss in net worth for Americans and a 7.7% loss in wages might wake you people up”

    It has, trust us, it has …

  31. 31

    Of course, I haven’t suffered a 40% loss in net worth; I’m about 40% richer than I was in 2007. I have, however, suffered a 100% loss in wages, because I don’t have to work anymore …

  32. 32

    @10 We can fix that if the voters get rid of the free-spending Republican obstructionists in Congress.

  33. 33

    @18 “If Obama cannot get his approval to 50% consistently in the month before the election, he will likely lose. The undecideds will break against him.”

    In a normal election against a normal candidate, that would be true, but Obama has the advantage of running against Romney and the GOP.

  34. 34

    “Marxist Agenda!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”

    Sounds a lot more sinister than Fabian Socialist Agenda or Swedish-Style Government Agenda.

    Oh, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! Affordable health care and sex education!!!

    That will make Jesus mad at us!!

  35. 35

    @ 30

    What fascinates me about that quote, is the fact that the study conducted was from 2007-2010, in the deepest part of the recession and the mortgage fraud bubble. Obama should have seen more of that, but it was obvious that he knew little of the huge ripoffs the banks were doing.

    If he actually tried to do anything to mitigate the problem, he probably wouldn’t survive, and the TeaBag fascisti would cheer.

  36. 36

    Obama’s problem stems from his father deserting him and an overwhelming desire to be loved & admired. He also is arrogant and believes he is the smartest guy in the room. That he & Holder can cover-up both the Fast& Furious debacle and Intelligence leaks. When Diane Feinstein turns on this Intelligence leak CRIMINAL ACTIVITY, Obama will be screwed. It’s Feinstein who has Obama’s re-election hopes in her hands. She is facing a huge moral dilemma. She is respected by Republicans for her understand of the importance of Intelligence information. She knows leaks are criminal acts..and detrimental to our country’s future. Having Holder hand-pick attorney’s that work for him to investigate Holder & Obama is laughable…and Feinstein knows it.
    You idiots were so outraged about Valerie Plame. That pales in comparison to the impact of these Obama Administration leaks.
    And there is no other reason for Obama’s regime to leak this info other than to make Obama look tough for re-election.
    Obama has no conscience.
    Does Feinstein??
    Time will tell.

    But make no mistake about it, these leaks are criminal activity stemming from the White House. The source must be identified & held accountable ASAP..right?? Holder’s handpicked guys will drag this out forever.
    So who is WORSE than Scooter Libby in Obama’s White House??

    And Fast & Furious…Holder has withheld over 150,000 documents. He is clearly in contempt of Congress. You will eventually see some Democrats turn on him for this too.

    Obama & Holder have consistently abused power and will ultimately be held accountable legally and at the polls.
    I think you leftist pigs are in denial about the seriousness of these matters.
    Sen. Obama & Sen Biden demanded independent counsels for the Valerie Plame investigation…and this is much much worse because it involved ON-GOING operations and has risked or cost lives.
    Wake up. Your hypocrisy is drugging you folks.

  37. 37

    You mean the gunwalking investigation that Issa and Cornwyn both voted to support in 2006?

    That program existed for three years before Obama became President. Theres a reason why Bush and his little cabal have kept their mouths shut on the matter. It’s the congresscritters who are safe in making the accusations. Theres a reason why Issa hasn’t requested any of the documentation from before January of 2009. Because HIS name is on the list of people who authorized the program in the first place.

  38. 38

    Back to Darryl’s analysis–
    It appears today anyway, that Romney must take both Ohio & Florida to have a chance.
    Darryl, just for the sake of promoting discussion…what are the odds today IF Romney carries Ohio & Florida??
    If for the sake of argument, you use RealClearPolitics as a reasonable assessment of the election today
    http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....e_map.html
    …and if you assume Romney takes Ohio & Florida, just for the sake of discussion…
    Then Obama needs 49 Electoral College Votes out of the following–

    Arizona (11)
    Colorado (9)
    Iowa (6)
    Michigan (16)
    Missouri (10)
    Nevada (6)
    New Hampshire (4)
    North Carolina (15)
    Virginia (13)
    Wisconsin (10)

    Where do the 49 come from??
    Wisconsin, Virginia and Michigan is 39.
    Add Colorado and you have 48.
    If this is the scenario, Obama would probably have to take Iowa or NH, wouldn’t you think??

    I understand Darryl’s analysis is based on certain underlying assumptions basically using ALL polls and is not attempting to predict the outcome in November. We can agree to disagree on the underlying assumptions and the value of Darryl’s analysis.
    But let’s go one step further and get into the State by State trying to predict results.
    I will concede that IF Romney cannot take both Ohio & Florida, based on today’s polling data, he sands little chance of winning.
    But those States will both end up being close, possibly within margin of error, by November.

  39. 39

    deathfrogg loves to throw out DailyKos talking points without any back up for his wild, hairbrained accusations. The buck stops with Obama & Holder on Fast & Furious dumbass.
    Trying to deflect back to 2006 is merely a weak effort to mask the poor communication and execution be Obama/Holder. Issa did not execute this failed action. Holder did. Holder works for Obama.

  40. 40

    This really is not a good month for Obama:

    Romney up 3 in WI:

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co....._president

    Obama also has MI and PA to worry about, big-time;

    http://nationaljournal.com/col.....l-20120613

    In another few days the OH poll result giving Obama +5 and throwing that state to The One in Darryl’s poll summary is off the list, the last few polls showing Romney assuming control will be added, and that 99% likelihood for Obama’s re-election will be no more.

    I can wait.

  41. 41

    @ 39

    Fast and Furious?

    Why, I believe I heard about that on NBC News, just last night. For the first time on that network. Ever.

    It must be newsworthy. NBC has now covered it.

  42. 42

    Damn, I almost forgot @ 40 to give credit where credit is due:

    In the wake of the recall, Romney’s campaign is moving resources into the state, and Obama’s campaign manager Jim Messina publicly ranked it as a toss-up for November in a video to supporters.

    Thanks, unions!! A spectacular own-goal!!

  43. 43

    Back to the “leaked” intelligence claims:

    I remember back in the 1980 campaign, when Jimmy Carter had scaled back tye B-1 bomber to just two prototypes. They Republicans mounted a PR and ad campaign alleging it proved Carter was “dangerously weak” on security and defense issues.

    By then Reagan was the nominee, and Carter, following precedent, arranged for security clearances and breafings of Reagan’s campaign. They told them that the B-1 Bomber was scrapped because it was already obsolete in the face of the Stealth technology already in development, and it just made sense to cancel the program and replace it with a stealth bomber.

    Republican mounted even more strident attacks, ignoring the evidence provided them by the classified briefings.

    Eventually the Carter team realized that they were really being hurt by these false attacks. Since the stealth technology had to be unveiled soon anyway, they decided to do so in such a way so that they had some control over the details which were released, and to counter the Republican attack.

    Immediately, the Republicans switched their attack to blaming Carter for treason and betraying the secret stealth program.

    That one tactic determine for me at least ten years of voting for Democrats. Rebublican tactics while Reagan was in office guaranteed at least another ten years of my voting for Democrats.

  44. 44

    By the way, every time I hear some Republican in Congress say he’s “outraged” or something is “outrageous”, I’m immediately reminded of the Vichey French police chief in the movie Cassablanca, who finds it “outrageous” to find gambling being conducted on the premisis. It brings a smile to my face, especially since they can’t seem to generate the same outrage over their corporate masters picking our pockets at every opportunity.

  46. 46

    @ 43

    Yeah, I’m pretty sure that’s why Carter lost. Couldn’t have had anything to do with this:

    1980 precedent. The year 1980 epitomised the stagflation process. That year real GDP fell by a sharp 1.6%, meaning that a serious recession was taking place. The unemployment rate jumped to 7.0% in 1980 from 5.8% the year before. Yet on top of this economic weakness, consumer price index (CPI) inflation accelerated to 13.5% from 11.3% the year before.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03.....90892.html

    or with the famous 37 cents Reagan pulled out of his trousers during a debate.

    I actually voted for Jimmy Carter in my first presidential election. I was 18, had just signed up at the post office with the Selective Service that summer, and my liberal parents convinced me that Ronnie Raygun was going to get me sent off to fight the Soviets and get me killed.

    I voted my fear. It’s what Democrats try to make voters do when they’re trying to re-elect someone they know is incompetent – they make you fear the alternative. I was gullible enough to be sucked in.

  47. 47

    # 46: We could argue “staflation” all day. It started during the Nixon administration, was in full force during the Ford administration (remember the WIN buttons?), and finally hit in full force during the end of the Carter presidency. Of course, Republicans spent the next thirty years talking about what a lousy president he was because the stock market remained about the same during his four years in office (a drop of less than 1%). They don’t like to talk about that now that Bush’s eight years resulted in a 20%+ loss in the stock market value.

    I remember sitting in traffic in 1974 in the rain, on my way from school to work, and hearing an economist tell the radio interviewer that we needed at least 2+ years of a good recession to fix the stagflation problems. Six years later Carter got blamed when that eventually happened, and Reagan got the credit.

    As for defense spending, Republicans don’t like to admit that it rose under Carter. He had to convert from a draft military to a volunteer military (which included updating WWII era quarters, etc.), oversea the development of attack helicopters and aircraft and new fighter-bombers (the F-14 was already on line, the F-15 and F-16 were ready to go into production), as well as the stealth program. It took some money, most of which wouldn’t appear on the open books (classified spending).

    So Carter tried to keep the budget balanced by cutting back the basics on the governmental level. Officials attending government breakfast or lunch meetings had to pay for their meals. Cleaning service was reduced to once a week in the government offices. Of course, the cry from Reagan officials was immediate – the first thing they did (along with passing tax cuts for the rich) was to bring back daily office cleaning and upgrade the meals without charging the officials.

  48. 48

    …I voted my fear. It’s what Democrats try to make voters do when they’re trying to re-elect someone they know is incompetent – they make you fear the alternative. I was gullible enough to be sucked in.

    Gee, you could just replace the word Democrats with Republicans, and you would get it at least half right.

    Remember the “Bear in the Woods” commercial supporting the Reagan campaign? Vote for Reagan, or the big Commie bear will eat you up! And with the demise of the Cold War, the Bush team susbstituted Arab Terrorists instead (funny how Osama Bin Laden tapes always appeared without date stamps on the day of domestic policy debates with Kerry).

  49. 49

    @ 47

    You need to look at why that ’81-82 recession occurred (Fed chief dramatically tightened monetary policy to cause it) and why Carter did not work to cause the same thing.

    How minor a recession must a Democrat have NOT to blame the prior administration, if four years later it wasn’t fixed?

    I’m just wondering. Even if I gave Obama a four-year mulligan due to the depth of the one that was in place when he took office, does Carter deserve the same deference for what he had? For all of four years?

    That’s setting the bar awfully low.

    I guess you can always claim credit for the massive expansion that will begin somewhere around 2013. Hey, Obama did all the paddling, and all President Romney did was ride the board in after the wave crested.

    Right?

  52. 52

    # 49: Holding a president responsible for economic events which occured while he is in office is always a tricky thing. I always look for cause/effect analysis.

    Our crrent economic problems are as easy to place on the Republicans as they were predictable. You take a balanced budget and give a tax cut to the rich, then issue a drug plan for seniors without cost controls or a method for paying for it, and then add 2+ wars with no method to pay for them, and finally add eight years of laissiz-fair (sp?) oversight of the banking/investment industries, and the results were predictable and pretty close to predictable. Then you have the leading Republicans meet in the evening of Obama’s inaugeration and plan to obstruct every effort to fix the problems, in the hopes of blaming the failure to fix on the Democrats in 2012, and you have today’s politics.

    In the 1970’s things were a bit more complicated, in that the media was pretty neutral and, after Watergate, not afraid to call government officials out when they made outragious claims like the Republicans now do with impunity on Fox News. At the time, everyone was afraid of a recession, and trying to reach the “soft landing” all sought – but in the end it turned out to be impossible.

  53. 53

    What? No mention of Solyndra in this thread???

    Fast ‘n Furious – Solyndra – Fast ‘n Furious – Solyndra – Fast ‘n Furious – Solyndra

    DARRYL ISSA – MANCRUSH SWOOOOOOOOON!!!

  54. 54

    50. Rael spews:

    So much cuntservative Retardican propaganda on this blog … WTF?

    Nice post blockhead.
    It’s because Conservative’s thrive on data & facts…and idiots like you just blurt stuff out when you laying the pot pipe down long enough to free up 2 hands.

  55. 55

    Actually, Solyndra will be a key point in Romney’s campaign about Obama’s wasteful squandering and failed stimulus.

    The CRIMINAL Intelligence leaks and Fast & Furious show high level criminal activity and incompetence…risking lives and our future.
    But don’t worry, Romney will not forget about Solyndra.

    BTW, Carville is desperately pleading with Obama to change the message away from the economy. Only problem is the economy is the #1 issue. Obama has blown it and squandered $11 TRILLION in additional debt..
    The additional $6 TRILLION he incurred since president PLUS the $5 TRILLION he promised to cut and didn’t.

    It’s hell now that Obama has a record he has to defend after given a free ride in 2008.

  56. 56

    52. rhp6033 spews:

    # 49: Holding a president responsible for economic events which occured while he is in office is always a tricky thing. I always look for cause/effect analysis

    No it isn’t.
    Obama promised to cut the National Debt in half down to $5 TRILLION. It’s now $16 TRILLION. That’s an $11 TRILLION Swing…crippling future generations.

    He also promised to get Unemployment under 8%. Yet another failure.

    Obama made promises and failed to keep them
    In fact, his failed promises made things much worse for future generations.

    You have to call Obama incompetent or a liar for making those unkept promises. Neither one is good

  57. 57

    @ 56

    I don’t think Carville is ‘desperately’ anything. I think Carville’s a Clintonite, and Clintons see a ’16 run against Romney as preferable to a HRC candidacy after the country is exhausted after 8 years of Obama.

    Carville just kneecapped Obama on behalf of HRC. He might just as well have said that Obama has been a disaster for the economy. Same effect.

  58. 58

    News Item: Prosecutors have dropped the remaining charges against John Edwards. He can no longer be criminally prosecuted for misuse of campaign funds.

    But he’s still a lousy husband and father. I’ll bet it’s not a happy Fathers Day celebration at his house this Sunday, if any of his kids bother to show up at all.

  59. 59

    @ 58

    I’m sure he can always count on Wade to be there for him. Right there on the mantle.

  60. 60

    That’s an $11 TRILLION Swing…crippling future generations.

    Two wars not paid for, tax cuts that most benefited the rich not paid for, expensive new medicare benefit for seniors not paid for..

    Laissez-faire policies of the right wing letting the economy fall into depression, obstructionist tactics of the Tea Party and Obama Deranged Republicans???

    Priceless…

  62. 62

    @57 ” I think … Clintons see a ‘16 run against Romney as preferable to a HRC candidacy …”

    You think a lot of stupid things. She’ll be 70 the next year.

    ” … after the country is exhausted after 8 years of Obama.”

    Exhausted from what? The Bush Depression? Yeah, we’ll be lucky
    to come out of that in less than a decade.

  64. 64

    re 60: Regarding wingnuts and Republicans, their mendacity in promoting bad policy through lies and fear, I think this quote from John Cougar Mellenkamp is apropos:

    ‘Some people ain’t no damn good
    You can’t trust ’em
    You can’t love em
    No good deed goes unpunished’

  65. 65

    Republicans seem to be speaking as if the old assumptions about the Republican party as being the one in favor of fiscal responsibility, patriotism, morality, etc…. were still accepted axiom’s in the public mind.

    That, however, is no longer the case. Do you really think that Romney can win a face to face television debate with Obama? At best, he would appear wooden, stodgy, and ill-informed.

    It won’t be so easy for Romney in an arena where the gloves are off. If you remember, during the healthcare debates when Obama extemporaneously answered questions from hostile Republican senators, he made them all look like the dunces that they actually are — including Mitch McConnell.

    McConnell is the kind of guy who comes off as a half-pint intellectual who is proud of being a narrow-minded prick.

  66. 66

    Romney has been cautioned by his advisors to avoid being seen at a grocery check out station for fear of the puzzled expression and dead air that the question: “Paper or plastic?” might engender.

  67. 67

    Think Rome, Greece, Carthage…..what you see now in the Ratpublican Part are the death throes of a once-respected political party taken over by the mob and led by oily opportunists. Puddybobyd are the blog equivalents of soccer yobs. Even if they win in November, we win because they will fuck it up so badly.

  69. 69

    @51 You conservatives don’t have any fearless leaders. All your leaders are draft dodgers. To wit:

    George W. Bush – went AWOL from National Guard
    Dick Cheney – 5 deferments, never served
    Mitt Romney – 5 deferments, never served
    Phil Gramm – 4 deferments, never served
    John Ashcroft – 7 deferments, never served
    Jeb Bush – never served
    Karl Rove – never served
    Dennis Hastert – never served
    Bill Frist – never served
    Dick Armey – never served
    Tom DeLay – never served
    Newt Gingrich – never served
    Trent Lott – never served
    Saxby Chambliss – never served
    Mitch McConnell – never served
    Rick Santorum – never served
    Roy Blunt – never served
    Richard Shelby – never served
    Dana Rohrabacher – never served
    John M. McHugh – never served
    JC Watts – never served
    Jack Kemp – never served
    Arnold Schwarzenegger – went AWOL from Austrian army
    George Pataki – never served
    Spencer Abraham – never served
    John Engler – never served
    Elliott Abrams – never served
    Paul Wolfowitz – never served
    Vin Weber – never served
    Richard Perle – never served
    Douglas Feith – never served
    Rudy Guiliani – never served
    Kenneth Starr – never served
    Antonin Scalia – never served
    Clarence Thomas – never served
    Ralph Reed – never served
    Michael Medved – never served
    Charlie Daniels – never served
    Ted Nugent – never served
    Jon Kyl – never served
    Tim Hutchison – never served
    Christopher Cox – never served
    George Will – never served
    Chris Matthews – never served
    Bill O’Reilly – never served
    Sean Hannity – never served
    Rush Limbaugh – never served
    Michael Savage – never served
    Paul Gigot – never served
    Bill Bennett – never served
    Pat Buchanan – never served
    Pat Robertson – never served
    Bill Kristol – never served
    Ann Coulter – never served

  70. 70

    Joke Of The Day

    @54 “Conservative’s thrive on data & facts”

    Self-explanatory; no comment needed.

  71. 71

    @50 You must be new here. As the unofficial HA greeter, it is my duty to inform you of the ad hoc HA posting rules. To wit:

    1. This is a liberal blog;
    2. Anyone can post here (except JCH);
    3. There is no censorship;
    4. As liberals, our mission is to lure conservatives to this blog, so we can verbally kick the living shit out of them;
    5. Our terms are unconditional surrender, and there will be trials;
    6. No mercy for wingnuts!
    7. klake is a nazi.

    Any questions?

  72. 72

    The Michigan legislature just passed three voter suppression, er, ID laws. Those poor old black people in Benton Harbor. Damn! How screwed can they get? Whirlpool abandons the town for Mexico and then the Republican Emergency Manager appointed by the Republican governor practically gives the park to Whirlpool so they can build a golf resort for the 1%. The town’s beloved park is now three golf holes and a parking lot. The town’s elected local government has been stripped of authority by the governor with all authority given to his appointed Emergency Manager. And then came the park giveaway to a global corporation with connections to all of the right-wing political players in this unfortunate right-wing experiment in American fascism.

    And now voter suppression. Targeting people like the poor, elderly black people of Benton Harbor who have already lost so much to these fascist thieves, a list of which already includes their local representative government.

    Of course, Bob’s good with all of that. His only concern is that when white Republicans do this to major American cities like Detroit, the National Guard and militias might be required as Bob anticipates the city’s blacks becoming a bit unruly when a white, Republican council is appointed to rule their city.

  73. 73

    “Liberal” media bias? Ya gotta be kidding, unless you consider anything to the left of Mussolini as “liberal.”

    That’s why they consistently vote DUMMOCRAPTIC 85%+ of the time.

    Yeah DUMB Wabbit, another useless smelly rabbit turd!

  76. 76

    20. That’s what Greece thought, they could spend and borrow until hell froze over. And today there is a run on the banks taking out 1 Billion per day in assets..

  77. 77

    I must have missed obamas military service….funny, I can’t find any record of it…imagine that.

  79. 79

    re 74: You wear your phony victimization like a maxi-pad headdress.

    God help anyone who mentions that they noticed it.

  80. 80

    Hmmm…I cant find Bill Clinton’s military record either. Perhaps they misplaced it?

  81. 81

    @71 –

    I guess the question is why they bother …?

    Posting under two names
    (“Smilin” & “Bob” I’m sure you need the Extenze
    … too bad it don’t work ….).

    Do they think they’re changing anybody’s minds?

    Or do they just want vent like the bitter losers?

  82. 82

    @ 81

    I doubt I would change one mind around here. But I might make someone think a little harder and argue a little more honestly, if only because no one likes to be smacked down.

    I’ll take it.

  85. 85

    @ 84

    Sez the guy who quoted Dr. Lawrence Brill.

    Admit it: You check your sources a little more carefully now.

  86. 86

    re 85: “Sez the guy who quoted Dr. Lawrence Brill.”

    I never quoted Lawrence Brill. You are a LIAR!!!!

  88. 88

    @ 86

    I stand corrected. It was Britt, not Brill, and it probably wasn’t a quote, but a long cut-and-paste.:

    http://horsesass.org/?p=44052#comment-1156460

    142. dorky dorkman spews:
    The following might give you some insight into why some on the left may have leveled an accusatory finger at the Bush administration when it came to fascist leanings. There’s no glib way out of it. It’s plain to see the truth of the matter:

    http://www.rense.com/general37/char.htm

    Dr. Lawrence Britt has examined the fascist regimes of Hitler (Germany), Mussolini (Italy), Franco (Spain), Suharto (Indonesia) and several Latin American regimes. Britt found 14 defining characteristics common to each:

    1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism
    2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights
    3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause
    4. Supremacy of the Military
    5. Rampant Sexism
    6. Controlled Mass Media
    7. Obsession with National Security
    8. Religion and Government are Intertwined
    9. Corporate Power is Protected
    10. Labor Power is Suppressed
    11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts
    12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment
    13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption
    14. Fraudulent Elections

    You really shouldn’t put yourself in the position of having to explain to everyone else what a stupid thing you did.

    But I’m enjoying your discomfort.

  89. 89

    Good grief, Bob, as a fascist you really ought to be able to recognize the 14 defining characteristics of fascism. Or today’s GOP. Whichever. It fits like a glove, doesn’t it?

    Why are you so ashamed of being a fascist and racist, Bob? Why can’t you be proud of it?

  90. 90

    Still having a hard time finding clinton or obamas military record. I wonder if rabbit knows where they are, after all it eems to be very important to him…

  91. 91

    An interesting discussion is worth comment. I think that
    you ought to write more on this issue, it might not be a taboo subject but generally people do not talk about these topics.
    To the next! Many thanks!!

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