| Obama | Romney |
| 97.2% probability of winning | 2.8% probability of winning |
| Mean of 305 electoral votes | Mean of 233 electoral votes |
The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 302 to 236 electoral votes. If the election was held then, Obama would be expected to win with a 96.9% probability, and Romney with a 3.1% probability.
Only seven new polls covering five states have been released since then. But, on the heels of the Republican convention and the start of the Democratic convention, this seems like a good place to take stock of the race. First, the new polls:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| FL | PPP | 31-Aug | 02-Sep | 1548 | 2.5 | 48 | 47 | O+1 |
| MI | EPIC/MRA | 28-Aug | 28-Aug | 1200 | 2.6 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
| MO | PPP | 28-Aug | 29-Aug | 621 | 3.9 | 41 | 53 | R+12 |
| NC | PPP | 31-Aug | 02-Sep | 1012 | 3.1 | 48 | 48 | tie |
| NC | SurveyUSA | 26-Aug | 30-Aug | 543 | 4.3 | 43 | 46 | R+3 |
| NC | Elon U | 25-Aug | 30-Aug | 1089 | 3.0 | 43 | 47 | R+4 |
| WV | R.L. Repass | 22-Aug | 25-Aug | 401 | 4.9 | 38 | 52 | R+14 |
Close as ever, the new Florida poll has Obama leading Romney by +1%. This poll has been taken as evidence for a lack of a strong convention (or Ryan) bump. But, who knows in Florida, the next poll may go strongly for Romney.
Michigan puts Obama over Romney by a rather weak +3%. The longer term trend suggests a much tighter race than earlier in the year. But Obama still seems to have the advantage:
A surprise poll comes out of Missouri, where Romney leads Obama by +12%. This double digit lead is a wider gap than we have seen recently. But the real surprise is the increasing variability seen among pollsters. Just two polls ago, Rasmussen found Obama leading Romney by +1%:
Three North Carolina polls mostly favor Romney. The two tie in the most recent poll. The two other polls give Romney a +3% and +4% advantage. With six “current” polls in the state, the weight of evidence is that Romney would win the state (now) with a 69% probability:
In West Virginia, Romney leads Obama by a +14%. Believe it or not, this race has tightened up since the last couple of polls.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 97,197 times and Romney wins 2,803 times (including the 330 ties). Obama receives (on average) 305 (+3) to Romney’s 233 (-3) electoral votes. Obama has a 97.2% (+0.3%) probability of winning and Romney has a 2.8% (-0.3%) probability of winning an election held now. The difference from the previous analysis is really too small to “make” anything over.
Now, let’s consider the longer term trends in this race. I’ve done as series of Monte Carlo analyses, conducted every seven days using all the polls from the last year. For each simulation, I follow the same rules of including only polls from the past month (and the most recent poll before then if there are none) (FAQ). The following graph shows how the election is “scored” over time. The middle (magenta) line is the median number of electoral votes for Obama. When that line dips below the dashed line, Romney wins. Above it, Obama wins.
The pair of tan lines show the interval of electoral college totals within which 75% of the results for Obama were found. And the outer green lines show the interval of electoral college totals within which 95% of the results for Obama were found.
Romney was at his best in the 4th quarter of 2011. Even then, his probability of winning the election was never greater than about 30%. Beginning in late January, Romney slipped into zero percent territory, and has been there until recently. He has now recovered to same place he was in late January.
The general election has just started, so we are at a point with much potential for big change in the standings. In 2008, we saw McCain begin to do, only to have Obama run away with it in the end.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 306 electoral votes with a 3.25% probability
- 312 electoral votes with a 3.22% probability
- 313 electoral votes with a 3.12% probability
- 297 electoral votes with a 3.09% probability
- 303 electoral votes with a 3.07% probability
- 296 electoral votes with a 2.37% probability
- 304 electoral votes with a 2.34% probability
- 302 electoral votes with a 2.33% probability
- 307 electoral votes with a 2.24% probability
- 298 electoral votes with a 2.19% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 97.2%, Romney wins 2.8%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 305.1 (18.9)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 232.9 (18.9)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 305 (269, 344)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 233 (194, 269)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 73 | |||
| Strong Obama | 151 | 224 | ||
| Leans Obama | 88 | 88 | 312 | |
| Weak Obama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 312 |
| Weak Romney | 1 | 1 | 1 | 226 |
| Leans Romney | 35 | 35 | 225 | |
| Strong Romney | 146 | 190 | ||
| Safe Romney | 44 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 0 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | Romney | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1* | 558 | 36.6 | 63.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| AZ | 11 | 1* | 775 | 44.1 | 55.9 | 0.9 | 99.1 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 679 | 36.8 | 63.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 1* | 780 | 59.7 | 40.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 5 | 3612 | 50.4 | 49.6 | 61.8 | 38.2 | ||
| CT | 7 | 3 | 2716 | 54.7 | 45.3 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| DE | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| DC | 3 | 1* | 94 | 88.3 | 11.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| FL | 29 | 7 | 6588 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 7.1 | 92.9 | ||
| GA | 16 | 1 | 1054 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 21.9 | 78.1 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 517 | 64.8 | 35.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| IL | 20 | 1* | 546 | 61.5 | 38.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 1* | 344 | 40.7 | 59.3 | 0.8 | 99.2 | ||
| IA | 6 | 2 | 1595 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 60.4 | 39.6 | ||
| KS | 6 | 1* | 442 | 45.0 | 55.0 | 6.8 | 93.2 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1* | 528 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 7.3 | 92.7 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1* | 542 | 41.1 | 58.9 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| ME | 2 | 1* | 516 | 58.3 | 41.7 | 99.7 | 0.3 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 1* | 488 | 64.8 | 35.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 1* | 421 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 85.7 | 14.3 | ||
| MD | 10 | 1* | 792 | 62.4 | 37.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 1 | 1048 | 58.5 | 41.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 5 | 5458 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 69.4 | 30.6 | ||
| MN | 10 | 1* | 472 | 53.6 | 46.4 | 87.0 | 13.0 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1* | 717 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MO | 10 | 6 | 3249 | 47.2 | 52.8 | 1.3 | 98.7 | ||
| MT | 3 | 1 | 465 | 40.9 | 59.1 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1* | 553 | 43.4 | 56.6 | 1.3 | 98.7 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 389 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 10.9 | 89.1 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 1* | 252 | 49.6 | 50.4 | 46.3 | 53.7 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 1* | 284 | 35.9 | 64.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NV | 6 | 2 | 1606 | 51.3 | 48.7 | 77.2 | 22.8 | ||
| NH | 4 | 2 | 1540 | 52.6 | 47.4 | 92.2 | 7.8 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 1 | 625 | 57.9 | 42.1 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1 | 450 | 57.8 | 42.2 | 98.9 | 1.1 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1 | 637 | 65.3 | 34.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 6 | 4399 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 31.5 | 68.5 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1* | 348 | 41.4 | 58.6 | 1.3 | 98.7 | ||
| OH | 18 | 6 | 5447 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 86.7 | 13.3 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1 | 431 | 33.4 | 66.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1* | 631 | 54.4 | 45.6 | 93.6 | 6.4 | ||
| PA | 20 | 3 | 1541 | 54.1 | 45.9 | 98.8 | 1.2 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1* | 495 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| SC | 9 | 1* | 1833 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 85.3 | 14.7 | ||
| SD | 3 | 1* | 497 | 46.1 | 53.9 | 11.0 | 89.0 | ||
| TN | 11 | 1* | 654 | 46.0 | 54.0 | 8.1 | 91.9 | ||
| TX | 38 | 1* | 460 | 38.9 | 61.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| UT | 6 | 1* | 1149 | 27.7 | 72.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1 | 415 | 71.3 | 28.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 5 | 3638 | 51.3 | 48.7 | 85.8 | 14.2 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1* | 477 | 59.3 | 40.7 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1 | 361 | 42.1 | 57.9 | 1.7 | 98.3 | ||
| WI | 10 | 7 | 6975 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 97.4 | 2.6 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
Oops! Looks like the GOP convention bounced the wrong way!
Slips??? Oh NOES… Call a whaaaambulance for Bob, Dr. Buttface and the Wyoming harlequin!
Puddy suggests looking at each poll to determine if they continue to oversample DUMMOCRAPTS at 10%! If they do then it’s dismal for Obummer in those close races!
Just think about it… all the slobbering libtard msm giving Obummer his 3-5% bump and he’s still neck and neck with Romney. Sucks to be a DUMMOCRAPT!
@3 Who gives a shit? The only poll that counts is Nov. 6. The rest is water cooler talk.
P.S., looks like you overstayed your break. I’m going to turn you in to your supervisor.
Why do they even bother to have conventions in the first place? We knew months ago that Romney would be the guy for the Reps and Obama would be the guy for the Dems. Isn’t it a massive waste of time to make a deal out of nominating the inevitable guy who had the damn nomination sewed up months ago?
@4,
He doesn’t care, given all the time he spend here, he’s just hoping Daryl is wrong and poor puddles can get a job sucking the shit out of Rmoney’s ass if November goes the GOP’s way.
“The only poll that counts is Nov. 6.”
True enough. We’ll see how it goes in November. There’s an outside chance Romney will win, but I’m not putting any money on him gettin’ elected.
Gallup: Polls Frozen In Time
Gallup’s editor-in-chief says “both Obama and Romney for the most part have been at or around 46 percent since we began tracking in April” and “so far, we don’t see an impact” from the GOP convention.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48886556
Roger Rabbit Commentary: This is extremely bad news for Romney, because if several states don’t shift in the electoral map, he will lose. On Darryl’s maps, Romney has come up from 191 EVs on Apr. 13 to 213 on Aug. 21 and 233 today, as a result of three states shifting between camps (FL and NC to Romney, IA to Obama), but this could be due to sampling variations within the margin of error instead of a change in voter sentiment. Romney needs a breakthrough and he hasn’t gotten it. Picking Ryan didn’t do it. His convention speech didn’t do it. He can’t hope for much of anything in his favor from the Democratic convention or the debates. The two things Romney has going for him is his ability to outspend Obama and the GOP’s vote suppression machinery. The latter will be out in full force — we can count on it.
The fact is, most people have made up their minds. In today’s hyperpartisan atmosphere, it’s unrealistic to think anyone will change their minds. The only voters in play are the genuinely undecided independents, and there are damn few of those. Romney has to win nearly all of them, and I don’t see how he can.
This is like a football game in the fourth quarter. Obama doesn’t have to score; all he has to do is run out the clock. Romney’s been unable to move the ball for the whole game and he’s got only a few plays left. And he’s not a guy with a Hail Mary arm. He’s more like a coach who doesn’t have a playbook and is trying to move the ball with penalties against the other side. But in football, you can’t score with a penalty, so at some point you have to pick up the ball and move it yourself. It remains to be seen whether Romney can do that.
The Reps are always talking about cutting government spending, but they’re not really serious about it. They ain’t interested in shrinking the American Empire overseas, and they damn sure ain’t interested in ending fram subsidies and other corporate welfare for their buddies.
If we’re ever gonna pay-off that $16 trillion, we’re gonna have to get real about ending our role as wordl policeman. Europe, the Middle East, Asia – they’re going to have to solve thier own problems without Americans getting killed and the US Treasury being drained.
Why do we still have bases in Germany, for Pete’s sake? Didn’t WW-II end almost 70 years ago? And South Korea – if they can sell KIAs and Hyundais here at a profit, why can’t they handle the goof ball in North Korea? I ain’t worried about Israel ’cause they ain’t our 51st state, and they can handle their own problems without us. They proved that when they sent Kevin Pollard to spy on us. Spying on a supposed friend ain’t kosher behavior. {Sorry, I couldn’t resist the cheap pun!}
“The fact is, most people have made up their minds.”
Yep, I made up my mind almost 2 years ago to write-in Ron Paul.
@5 You obviously have no idea what conventions are for. This is likely the first time in 4 years that some of these GOP delegates have had a chance to sleep with someone other than their wives.
@7 “I’m not putting any money on him”
You mean you’re not tempted by the 2.5-to-1 odds London bookies will give you for betting on Romney?
“You mean you’re not tempted by the 2.5-to-1 odds London bookies will give you for betting on Romney?”
Nope. I would do better to play the lottery.
@10 “Ron Paul”
You just discredited yourself. I doubt there’s any need to explain why.
@13 The lottery odds are something like 1 in 700 million, so for you to get the equivalent of a 2.5-to-1 payout, there has to be at least $280 million in the pot. I never buy a lottery ticket until it’s over $100 million and even then I never spend more than $1.
Also, the lottery is paid over 20 years, and adjusting for present value reduces it by something like 40%, so until the lottery pot goes over approximately $467 million, the London bookies offer a better deal.
The Ipsos poll has an interesting artifact…
Romney gained 8 points. People met Romney, not the DUMMOCRAPTIC horse manure ads of felon, cancer killer, etc.
Another issue not polled is the union thug support this election. How does one capture that “influence” in the polls? Yet it’s there.
Hmmm… Self inflicted wounds. People saw the Fraggy-OWS Wisconsin tactics of the union thugs in prime time display earlier this year. Oh yeah… remember the OWS attempted infrastructure bombings. With the wasted money (heh heh heh) in Ohio and Wisconsin, there will be less available for union thuggery in 2012.
And there are always Obummer’s own words from yesteryear. This will also affect polls.
Which union is it?
The GOP Rapid Response team is in full gear in NC..responding to every word in an effort to kill any positive message Team Obama tries to deliver.
http://www.foxnews.com/politic.....onvention/
The dope has been roped.
There are so few State Polls and it appears the numbers in this analysis include so many dated polls that it renders it meaningless.
After the Convention, you will see much more current state polls. But this analysis won’t mean much if it continues to include dated ones.
Thank you for that moment of clarity. Just like the Republican Congress, your only chance for power is to stifle the success of the US government and this US President.
Typical Republican treasonous behavior, though reflective of your true objective: personal/oligarchic power, rather than success and prosperity for the nation as a whole.
Like I said before, you’re not too bright.
I think you must be illiterate. Is your dog typing for you?
@ 21
Just like the Republican Congress, your only chance for power is to stifle the success of the US government and this US President.
And I guess Harry Reid is exhibiting treasonous behavior by stifling the success of the House of Representatives, as he has caused numerous House-passed bills to languish without Senate action.
What’s that, Lib Despair? There’s a difference? Really? Please explain that difference.
@20 Here we have 16 of 16 professional odds-makers putting cash on the line. From my viewpoint the dopes on the rope are Sheldon Adelson, Karl Rove, and the Koch Brothers who have bet hundreds of millions on Mitt!
http://www.oddschecker.com/spe.....ion/winner
[Deleted — see HA Comment Policy]
@ 24
Hey, Greg, is there a candidate for the House of Representatives in Hawaii you could recommend?
Heh. Yeah, that last convention went SOOO well..
Well I give the GOP credit for one thing. They know how to lie, twist and distort any positive message from the D’s.
With all the millions from the right wing billionaires it’s a given that they’ll give it everything they’ve got.
BUSTED, MR. NON-CYNICAL, KLOWN!
The Fox News coverage of the Democratic convention has pretty much already been written and uploaded to the teleprompters for Sean Hannity and their “morning news” shows to spout. Trudeau has it nailed:
Fox Coverage of Democratic 2012 Convention
Mr. NOT Cynical @ 20,
“The GOP Rapid Response team is in full gear in NC..responding to every word in an effort to kill any positive message Team Obama tries to deliver.”
That’s just business as usual. The Obama campaign did the same thing.
“There are so few State Polls…”
While it is true that there are fewer polls than at this time in 2008, if you inspect the state table, you would see that the current analysis contains nearly 100 polls!
“…and it appears the numbers in this analysis include so many dated polls that it renders it meaningless.”
No…it “appears” you are incapable of reading. The analysis includes 68 polls taken within the past month, and includes 53,850 respondents!
The analysis also includes 30 polls (17,233 respondents) that are older than 1 month for states where there is no recent polling. For the most part, those are states that are not in play. That’s why pollsters don’t poll very frequently in these states.
But, what would be your alternative to using the most recent poll in a state lacking current polling? Oh…yeah…I forgot….you’d pull numbers out of your ass.
“After the Convention, you will see much more current state polls. But this analysis won’t mean much if it continues to include dated ones.”
Yawn. These analyses always uses the most current polls available.
@31
Your patience continues to amaze. Kudos.
@27 Hawaii is the least conservative state, voting a whopping 38.00% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average. That is the reason pro choice republican Linda Lingle is running from Romney-Ryan and the GOP platform as fast as she can. Mitt Romney has no chance of winning in the Aloha State
@ 33
Greg: I’m messin’ with ya. Please post your propaganda about the hot veteran chick.
@27 The problem the oddsmakers, Darryl, and Nate Silver have identified that plagues the GOP is a numbers issue.
http://www.cagle.com/2012/09/n.....hite-guys/
@ 27
The problem with your perspective is that you assume the anger is only with whites.
The Black Teen Unemployment Rate Is Staggering
Even more alarming is the unemployment rate among black youth, ages 16-19, jumped a full 2.8 points, to 39.3 percent. That’s nearly double the 20.9 percent unemployment rate for whites in the same age demographic.
http://www.businessinsider.com.....ort-2012-7
Unemployment Jumps to 11 Percent Among Latinos, Report Says
“It is clear that President Obama still hasn’t delivered to the American people, especially the Hispanic community on the most important issue facing the country,” Jennifer Korn, Executive Director of the Hispanic Leadership Network, a conservative-leaning group, said in a press release. “Hispanics are still experiencing an all-time high unemployment rate of 11.0 percent. Mr. President where are the jobs?”
http://latino.foxnews.com/lati.....z25WWe8zkA
Perhaps re-think the validity of your assumption.
Indeed, a deep and difficult problem, both economically and morally.
Why is Romney being crushed among Blacks and Latinos again?
Oh, right. When rich white robot, er, guy, Mittens deploys his millions on the airwaves this fall, teh Black and Latino folk will flock to him in droves.
Not.
@34 Typical winger. When you size up a woman’s capabilities, your vision never rises above chest level.
@34&38 US Army Captain Tulsi Gabbard will stand up for the combat veterans. She has a good laugh in this video about the old angry white guy Clint Eastwood’s sad show at the RNC.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drbE_rZzhlA
@36 “Jennifer Korn, Executive Director of the Hispanic Leadership Network, a conservative-leaning group”
Bob fails. Again.
http://tucsoncitizen.com/hispa.....ifer-korn/
[Deleted — Not Fair Use. HA Comment Policy]
14. Roger Rabbit spews:
@10 “Ron Paul”
You just discredited yourself. I doubt there’s any need to explain why.
I’ll vote for whomever I want, and you can do the same. If you don’t like it, tough – that’s the way it is.
Nothing is ever going to change unless we shrink government. That means reducing our overseas follies to zero, shrinking the military to about 60% of its current size, and cutting spending in every other facet of government. Ron Paul is the only one who really fucking means it when he says he will shrink government.
@15 & 16,
I prefer to play the lottery because I enjoy it. It’s my business, not yours.
Make your bets with the London bookies and shut the fuck up.