| Obama | Romney |
| 99.9% probability of winning | 0.1% probability of winning |
| Mean of 327 electoral votes | Mean of 211 electoral votes |
Last week’s analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Romney with an average of 323 to 215 electoral votes in a hypothetical election held then. The results suggested Obama had a 99.3% to Romney’s 0.7% probability of winning.
Since then, eleven new polls have been released (although only a couple of the polls were administered after last Thursday’s Supreme Court ruling on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act):
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| AL | Capital Survey Research Center | 06-Jul | 06-Sep | 841 | 3.3 | 33.9 | 55.8 | R+21.9 |
| AZ | Rasmussen | 26-Jun | 26-Jun | 500 | 4.5 | 41 | 54 | R+13 |
| FL | WeAskAmerica | 01-Jul | 02-Jul | 1127 | 2.9 | 46.1 | 45.3 | O+0.8 |
| FL | Quinnipiac | 19-Jun | 25-Jun | 1200 | 2.8 | 45 | 41 | O+4 |
| MA | PPP | 22-Jun | 24-Jun | 902 | 3.3 | 55 | 39 | O+16 |
| MI | Marist | 24-Jun | 25-Jun | 1078 | 3.0 | 44 | 39 | O+5 |
| NH | Marist | 24-Jun | 25-Jun | 1029 | 3.0 | 43 | 42 | O+1 |
| NC | Civitas | 29-Jun | 01-Jul | 558 | 4.2 | 45 | 50 | R+5 |
| NC | Marist | 24-Jun | 25-Jun | 1019 | 3.1 | 46 | 44 | O+2 |
| OH | Quinnipiac | 19-Jun | 25-Jun | 1237 | 2.8 | 47 | 38 | O+9 |
| PA | Quinnipiac | 19-Jun | 25-Jun | 1252 | 2.8 | 45 | 39 | O+6 |
Alabama is solid for Romney (+21.9%), as Massachusetts is for Obama (+16%). Arizona is turning into a solid Romney state. He has led in the past five polls, going back to mid-April.
Obama solidifies the three “classic swing states.” In Florida, Obama leads in both polls by +0.8% and +4%. Combined with the one other recent poll, Obama would be expected to take the state now with a 93% probability.
In Ohio, Obama has a +9% in the new poll, giving him the lead in both current OH polls; he would be expected to win the state now with a 99% probability. Romney seemed to made some headway in late May and early June, but that “surge” now seems transient: 
The Ohio story is repeated for Pennsylvania where Obama has a modest +6% lead over Romney, leads in both current polls, and would win with a 99% probability. The difference is a lack of evidence for a transient Romeny surge for the state: 
North Carolina is interesting. Romney goes up +5% in one poll and Obama goes up by +2% in the other new poll. Romney now leads in three of the four current polls, and would be expected to take the state with a 71% probability: 
Michigan has Obama up by a moderate +5% over Romney. The state has gone from a tie one year ago, to a solid Obama lead since January, back down to a small advantage for Obama in the past few weeks:
Finally, the new New Hampshire poll gives Obama a not-so-impressive +1% lead over Romney. Still, the larger trend and the recent flurry of polls has the state painted blue:
With these new polls (and some older ones dropping out), the Monte Carlo analysis gives Obama wins 99,860 times and Romney wins 140 times (including the 41 ties). Obama receives (on average) 327 (+4) to Romney’s 211 (-4) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would win with a 99.9% probability.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 328 electoral votes with a 4.52% probability
- 322 electoral votes with a 4.40% probability
- 323 electoral votes with a 3.94% probability
- 329 electoral votes with a 3.76% probability
- 334 electoral votes with a 2.63% probability
- 313 electoral votes with a 2.60% probability
- 333 electoral votes with a 2.56% probability
- 325 electoral votes with a 2.45% probability
- 319 electoral votes with a 2.44% probability
- 337 electoral votes with a 2.40% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 99.9%, Romney wins 0.1%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 326.6 (15.9)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 211.4 (15.9)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 328 (293, 357)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 210 (181, 245)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 142 | |||
| Strong Obama | 144 | 286 | ||
| Leans Obama | 36 | 36 | 322 | |
| Weak Obama | 6 | 6 | 6 | 328 |
| Weak Romney | 1 | 1 | 1 | 210 |
| Leans Romney | 39 | 39 | 209 | |
| Strong Romney | 132 | 170 | ||
| Safe Romney | 38 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 0 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | Romney | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1* | 754 | 37.8 | 62.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| AZ | 11 | 2 | 1227 | 46.4 | 53.6 | 3.5 | 96.5 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 679 | 36.8 | 63.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 1* | 1465 | 61.7 | 38.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 3 | 2149 | 52.2 | 47.8 | 92.9 | 7.1 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1* | 1239 | 56.8 | 43.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| DC | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| FL | 29 | 3 | 3557 | 51.8 | 48.2 | 93.1 | 6.9 | ||
| GA | 16 | 1* | 404 | 43.3 | 56.7 | 3.1 | 96.9 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 517 | 64.8 | 35.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| IL | 20 | 1* | 546 | 61.5 | 38.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 1* | 447 | 45.0 | 55.0 | 7.0 | 93.0 | ||
| IA | 6 | 2 | 1432 | 50.2 | 49.8 | 54.2 | 45.8 | ||
| KS | 6 | 1* | 442 | 45.0 | 55.0 | 7.2 | 92.8 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1* | 528 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 6.7 | 93.3 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1* | 542 | 41.1 | 58.9 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| ME | 2 | 1 | 415 | 58.6 | 41.4 | 99.3 | 0.7 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 1* | 488 | 64.8 | 35.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 1* | 421 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 85.4 | 14.6 | ||
| MD | 10 | 1* | 792 | 62.4 | 37.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 1 | 848 | 58.5 | 41.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 6 | 5066 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 84.7 | 15.3 | ||
| MN | 10 | 1* | 904 | 58.1 | 41.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1* | 717 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MO | 10 | 1 | 455 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 12.4 | 87.6 | ||
| MT | 3 | 1 | 372 | 45.2 | 54.8 | 8.7 | 91.3 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1 | 553 | 43.4 | 56.6 | 1.4 | 98.6 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 389 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 10.2 | 89.8 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 1* | 252 | 49.6 | 50.4 | 47.2 | 52.8 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 1* | 284 | 35.9 | 64.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| NV | 6 | 1 | 450 | 53.3 | 46.7 | 83.9 | 16.1 | ||
| NH | 4 | 3 | 1725 | 51.4 | 48.6 | 78.8 | 21.2 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 1* | 947 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1* | 417 | 57.8 | 42.2 | 98.7 | 1.3 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1 | 758 | 62.8 | 37.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 4 | 2664 | 49.3 | 50.7 | 29.1 | 70.9 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1 | 569 | 42.9 | 57.1 | 1.0 | 99.0 | ||
| OH | 18 | 2 | 1663 | 53.9 | 46.1 | 98.9 | 1.0 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1* | 448 | 30.4 | 69.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1 | 631 | 54.4 | 45.6 | 93.8 | 6.2 | ||
| PA | 20 | 2 | 1909 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 98.6 | 1.4 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1* | 495 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| SC | 9 | 1* | 1833 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 84.7 | 15.3 | ||
| SD | 3 | 1* | 442 | 44.3 | 55.7 | 4.9 | 95.1 | ||
| TN | 11 | 1* | 654 | 46.0 | 54.0 | 7.7 | 92.3 | ||
| TX | 38 | 1* | 460 | 38.9 | 61.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| UT | 6 | 1 | 1149 | 27.7 | 72.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1* | 528 | 67.8 | 32.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 1 | 1010 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 12.1 | 87.9 | ||
| WA | 12 | 2 | 1386 | 56.2 | 43.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 373 | 40.8 | 59.2 | 0.7 | 99.3 | ||
| WI | 10 | 3 | 2157 | 52.0 | 48.0 | 90.3 | 9.7 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
Don’t worry – Obama will ge re-elected in 2012.
MA = 11 electoral college votes V. 9 for AL, so fairly evenly matched up there. The differences being that MA has a hell of a lot of money, where AL’s flat broke, Boston has a big media market with out of state reach, where no one gives a fuck what anyone in AL has to say, & of course Romney’s losing bad in his home state where he used to be governor. Losing your home state never looks good, as Al Gore can tell you.
At least JFK had the sense to fight Marxism and Communism. This GOV takeover everything hack is going to go down!
I could never figure out which was his ‘home state’. Is it MA? NH? MI? CA (remember seaside La Jolla manse)?
Has anyone ever been elected President while losing the state they were governor of? Has anyone ever been elected President while losing their ‘home state’? All three ‘home states’?
Right on, brother. Cuba’s huge. So’s China.
I think the Ohio numbers suggest that attacks on Romney using Bain/vulture meme are working.
Also, did you see the Romney interview in which he drew the distinction with the Supremes saying the ACA was a tax, but he didn’t agree that it was a tax, but they’ve spoken? I’ve rarely seen him smarmier or more unctuous – really very repellent and manifestly dishonest, with some condescension thrown in for good measure – the man is unlikeable, and I think perhaps unelectable.
Also interesting in NC, if you look at trends within a pollsters numbers, the Civitas poll (which I think is a Republican outfit) has Romney’s lead shrinking between 10/11 -> 1/12 -> now. Moreover, Ras only has Romney up by 1 or 2. I think NC is going to be close.
I heard some comments that Republican delegates aren’t too happy about going to Tampa in August. It’s already hot enough, but Tampa in August?????
Usually a national convention helps that party get a boost in the polls – it’s like bombarding a city with thousands of missionaries and their families, all preaching the gospel of their party. I think the Preseident stopped cold an attempted GOP resurgence in Colorado in 2008 – but, of course, only a month or two later the economy pretty much sealed the deal.
But it may have a lot to do with how the delegates act in their city. If the Republicans go down there preaching family values and promoting themselves as Christians, but end up drunk and causing a ruckus at the local strip bars, it’s not going to help their cause. If they skimp on tipping the waiters/waistresses at the I-Hop, then that’s going to resonate with the working class voters, especially with Romney and the Republican Party being so vulnerable in the “class warfare” department.
Liberal Scientist,
Civitas is definitely a right wing “think” tank. Their pollster has usually been National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ, which is definitely a Republican pollster.
Nevertheless, their NC polls had a pretty good reputation in the 2008 election season. Their final poll taken in October 2008 had Obama with a +0.5% lead (Obama 46.49%, McCain 45.98%). The actual 2008 election results was a +0.33 win by Obama (Obama 49.69%, McCain 49.36%).
But their early polls for the 2012 election season have been criticized as being outliers compared to the multiple PPP and a Magellan Strategies poll. Perhaps because of this, Civitas switched to using SurveyUSA this month.
I recently saw an article that said the poll of all polls had Bush at 49.5% Approval on Election Day 2004. Obama is currently at 47.7%. Certainly it is about state polls, but I think this is telling. Obama cannot seem to get above 48%.
The problem incumbents historically have is undecideds generally break against them.
Anyway, I suspect Obama will win but it will come down to Florida & Ohio. If Obama takes one of them, he will win. Romney needs both of them plus a little bit. I think NC will go for Romney because Andy Griffith, a huge Obama supporter in 2008, died without doing another ad for Obama. Not sure if he even endorsed Obama. Seems silly, but it’s friggin’ NC.
Yawlers loved Andy.
rhp, have you noticed lots of Dems are skipping the dem convention to try to avoid being tied to obama? interesting and the only explanation is obama is viewed as toxic for many of these candidates in swing states/districts.
[Deleted — see HA Comment Policy]
[Deleted — see HA Comment Policy]
[Deleted — see HA Comment Policy]
[Deleted — see HA Comment Policy]
What’s really telling for me is how few über-red states are listed as safe for Romney. Aside from Mormon country (UT, ID, WY), the only safe Romney states are the Deep South shitholes of AR, OK and AL. TX is not safe for Romney? MS, GA, TN, KY? WTF??
Here, I think, is the really big elephant in the living room: Romney is a Mormon, and a large chunk of the toothless Bubba vote (a/k/a the Republican/GOP base) won’t vote for him for love or money for that reason. McCain had the problem that he wasn’t viewed as a “true conservative,” which Romney has in spades (his claim to be “severely conservative” at CPAC 2012 notwithstanding), but McCain didn’t have the Mormon baggage. And if states like TX aren’t showing as “safe Romney” this late in the game, he’s in big trouble.
Darryl, you need to put Politifact’s shit in the street regarding their recent ruling of truth to fat ass NJ governor chrasshat’s statement that the election is as of now a statistical dead heat. Please go check it out.
# 13: These may be “red” states, but don’t forget that the urban areas tend to vote Democratic. The urban areas continue to grow, and the rural areas continue to suffer de-population. If enough conservative voters stay home in November due to concerns of Romney’s mormanism, there may be a (remote) shot at the Democrats winning those states.
I have some relatives that moved from the Orlando area to some property they bought for retirement in southern Georgia. They are dependibly Republican. But they point out that the youth in that area are “lost”. There simply aren’t any jobs available, and haven’t been for some time. Local growers have gotten accostomed to paying piece-work wages to migrant workers, and local teens can’t build a future in the U.S. on the wages they want to pay for back-breaking work in the hot Georgia sun. So there is a huge explosion of meth use, and it’s attendent consequences, as the youth seek some way to forget their troubles. You’ve got to wonder how that’s going to affect the voting demographics in those areas.
@13 “won’t vote for him … for that reason”
They have an even better reason to not vote for him: He’s a two-faced flip-flopper and prevaricator who tells people what he thinks they want to hear. In short, he’s got a trust problem.