Poll Analysis: Romney gains slightly on Obama

Obama	Romney
99.9% probability of winning	0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 331 electoral votes	Mean of 207 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by an average of 348 to 190 electoral votes and a probability of beating Romney of 99.989%—that is, Romney won 11 of the 100,000 simulated elections.

Now nine new polls weigh in on the race:

		start	end	sample		%	%	%
st	poll	date	date	size	MOE	O	R	diff
CA	Rasmussen	08-Feb	16-Feb	500	4.5	57	35	O+22
IA	Iowa Poll	12-Feb	15-Feb	800	3.5	44	46	R+2
MA	Suffolk	11-Feb	15-Feb	500	—	53.0	39.3	O+13.7
MI	PPP	10-Feb	12-Feb	560	4.1	54	38	O+16
NM	Rasmussen	14-Feb	14-Feb	500	4.5	55	36	O+19
OH	Fox News	11-Feb	13-Feb	505	4.5	38	44	R+6
TX	U Texas	08-Feb	15-Feb	529	4.3	36	49	R+13
WA	Elway	07-Feb	09-Feb	405	5.0	49	38	O+11
WA	SurveyUSA	13-Feb	15-Feb	572	4.2	49.9	39.2	O+10.7

The polls in California, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Washington are unsurprising in giving Obama double-digit leads. Same for Romney’s double-digit lead in Texas.

The New Mexico poll is, perhaps, a little surprising in giving Obama a +19% lead. But, really, Obama’s lead has been rock-solid in the four NM polls taken to date:

Romney leads Obama by +2 in Iowa. My hunch is that this is an outlier, given the polling to date and that this result comes from a non-mainstream pollster:

The Ohio poll, giving Romney a +6% edge over Obama, reverses the trend mentioned in the previous analysis (see the graph there). Overall, Obama still leads in Ohio because there are four current polls that, combined, give Obama a 51% to 49% edge. Indeed, Obama won Ohio in 85% of the simulated elections.

With the new polls, a Monte Carlo analysis (100,000 simulated state elections, each contributing to an electoral college election) has Obama winning 99,868 times. Now Romney wins 132 times, suggesting that Obama would win an election held now with a 99.9% probability. Obama receives (on average) 331 to Romney’s 207 electoral votes, a gain of +17 votes for Romney.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

• 332 electoral votes with a 2.92% probability
• 331 electoral votes with a 2.79% probability
• 341 electoral votes with a 2.66% probability
• 337 electoral votes with a 2.61% probability
• 342 electoral votes with a 2.34% probability
• 322 electoral votes with a 2.23% probability
• 327 electoral votes with a 2.22% probability
• 333 electoral votes with a 2.16% probability
• 336 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability
• 316 electoral votes with a 2.05% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

• Obama wins 99.9%, Romney wins 0.1%.
• Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 331.2 (19.5)
• Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 206.8 (19.5)
• Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 332 (292, 368)
• Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 206 (170, 246)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Obama	148
Strong Obama	112	260
Leans Obama	55	55	315
Weak Obama	26	26	26	341
Weak Romney	0	0	0	197
Leans Romney	49	49	197
Strong Romney	84	148
Safe Romney	64

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

	0	0	EC	#	Total	%	%	Obama	Romney
	4	8	Votes	polls	Votes	Obama	Romney	% wins	% wins
AL			9	1*	754	37.8	62.2	0.0	100.0
AK			3	0*				(0)	(100)
AZ			11	1*	443	46.3	53.7	13.2	86.8
AR			6	1*	1744	40.4	59.6	0.0	100.0
CA			55	2	2360	65.2	34.8	100.0	0.0
CO			9	1*	730	51.1	48.9	66.0	34.0
CT			7	1	435	57.5	42.5	98.3	1.7
DE			3	0				(100)	(0)
DC			3	0				(100)	(0)
FL			29	5	5607	51.6	48.4	95.6	4.4
GA			16	1	1072	45.5	54.5	2.1	97.9
HI			4	1*	517	64.8	35.2	100.0	0.0
ID			4	0*				(0)	(100)
IL			20	1	546	61.5	38.5	100.0	0.0
IN			11	0				(0)	(100)
IA			6	1	720	48.9	51.1	33.2	66.8
KS			6	1*	442	45.0	55.0	6.8	93.2
KY			8	1*	528	45.5	54.5	7.1	92.9
LA			8	1*	542	41.1	58.9	0.2	99.8
ME			4	1*	586	56.3	43.7	98.4	1.6
MD			10	0*				(100)	(0)
MA			11	2	910	59.6	40.4	100.0	0.0
MI			16	2	1043	56.6	43.4	99.8	0.2
MN			10	2	1598	56.0	44.0	100.0	0.0
MS			6	1*	717	40.0	60.0	0.0	100.0
MO			10	1	524	50.0	50.0	50.8	49.2
MT			3	1*	356	40.4	59.6	0.6	99.4
NE			2	1*	658	42.7	57.3	0.4	99.6
NE1			1	1*	269	50.6	49.4	55.0	45.0
NE2			1	1*	204	45.6	54.4	19.2	80.8
NE3			1	1*	185	29.2	70.8	0.0	100.0
NV			6	1*	513	53.4	46.6	87.1	12.9
NH			4	1	446	55.6	44.4	95.6	4.4
NJ			14	1*	1256	55.8	44.2	99.8	0.2
NM			5	1	455	60.4	39.6	100.0	0.0
NY			29	2	1831	62.8	37.2	100.0	0.0
NC			15	1	978	50.5	49.5	59.6	40.4
ND			3	1*	480	41.3	58.8	0.3	99.7
OH			18	4	2869	51.3	48.7	85.1	14.9
OK			7	0				(0)	(100)
OR			7	1*	464	54.7	45.3	92.3	7.7
PA			20	1	440	48.9	51.1	36.9	63.1
RI			4	1*	495	59.4	40.6	99.9	0.1
SC			9	1*	1833	51.7	48.3	84.6	15.4
SD			3	1*	454	37.7	62.3	0.0	100.0
TN			11	1*	1139	47.5	52.5	11.1	88.9
TX			38	1	449	42.3	57.7	1.2	98.8
UT			6	1*	688	33.0	67.0	0.0	100.0
VT			3	1*	1085	61.4	38.6	100.0	0.0
VA			13	1	1390	52.2	47.8	87.4	12.6
WA			12	2	861	56.1	43.9	99.3	0.7
WV			5	1*	811	38.0	62.0	0.0	100.0
WI			10	1	616	54.5	45.5	94.6	5.4
WY			3	0				(0)	(100)

^* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.