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Poll Analysis: Obama would certainly win an election today

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Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 334 electoral votes Mean of 204 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed Obama leading Romney with 336 to 202 Electoral votes, and a near 100% probability of winning an election held now.

The past week has produced twelve new polls (including our first poll in D.C.) to weigh in on the contest:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO Quinnipiac 31-Jul 06-Aug 1463 — 45 50 R+5
DC Heart+Mind Strategies 26-Jul 29-Jul 100 — 83 11 O+72
IA Rasmussen 08-Aug 08-Aug 500 4.5 44 46 R+2
MO SurveyUSA 09-Aug 12-Aug 585 4.1 43.6 45.5 R+1.9
NH PPP 09-Aug 12-Aug 1055 3.0 51 45 O+6
NH U NH 01-Aug 12-Aug 555 4.1 49 46 O+3
OH Rasmussen 13-Aug 13-Aug 500 4.5 45 45 tie
OH PPP 09-Aug 12-Aug 961 3.2 48 45 O+3
VA Rasmussen 07-Aug 07-Aug 500 4.5 48 46 O+2
VA Quinnipiac 31-Jul 06-Aug 1412 — 49 45 O+4
WI Marquette 02-Aug 05-Aug 1428 — 50.0 44.7 O+5.4
WI Quinnipiac 31-Jul 06-Aug 1412 — 51 45 O+6

(Note: This section was updated because I described the wrong poll earlier.) The new Colorado poll has Romney with a +5% lead over Obama. As it happens, this is the oldest of the three current polls in Colorado. Together they give Romney a 64% to 36% probability of taking the state in a hypothetical election held now:

ObamaRomney14Jul12-14Aug12Colorado

Our first poll for Washington D.C. is pathetically small at 100 respondents (it is reported as a sub-sample of a larger poll of the region). But the poll is clear…Obama is up big-time in our Nation’s Capitol.

The new Rasmussen Iowa poll offers Romney a +2% edge over Obama. As the only current poll, the analysis finds Romney taking the state with a 63% probability today. The polling suggests that the race has tightened up, so that a Romney lead is possible:

ObamaRomney14Jul12-14Aug12Iowa

The Survey USA Missouri poll has Romney leading Obama by +1.9%. This makes 6 polls in a row with Romney leading in the state, although the other five polls had Romney up by +6% or more.

Two New Hampshire polls give Obama the lead: +6% in one and +3% in the other. Obama has now led in the past 8 polls in the state, going back three months.

Two new polls in Ohio, and one has the race all tied up at 45%, and the other poll goes for Obama by +3%. Romney has not led in the state in nine consecutive polls going back to early June. The polling history suggests that Obama’s lead is slight, but real: ObamaRomney14Jul12-14Aug12Ohio

A pair of Virginia polls goes to Obama: +2% in the most recent and +4% in the other. Romney has not led in any of the seven Virginia polls taken in July and August. Like Ohio, the Virginia polling data suggest Obama’s lead is slight, but real: ObamaRomney14Jul12-14Aug12Virginia

A pair of Wisconsin polls give Obama +5.4% and +6% leads over Romney. Again, we find Romney has not led in any of the seven polls taken in July and August.

With the new polls, a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections finds Obama wins every time. Obama receives (on average) 334 (-2) to Romney’s 204 (+2) electoral votes. Obama slipped very slightly in average electoral votes. Even so, if the election was held today, Obama would almost certainly win.

Of course, a lot can happen in the 90 days until the election….

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 341 electoral votes with a 4.96% probability
  • 342 electoral votes with a 4.29% probability
  • 326 electoral votes with a 3.55% probability
  • 335 electoral votes with a 3.53% probability
  • 332 electoral votes with a 3.39% probability
  • 327 electoral votes with a 3.23% probability
  • 336 electoral votes with a 3.09% probability
  • 333 electoral votes with a 2.88% probability
  • 350 electoral votes with a 2.87% probability
  • 347 electoral votes with a 2.74% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 100.0%, Romney wins 0.0%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 334.2 (14.8)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 203.8 (14.8)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 335 (300, 359)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 203 (179, 238)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Obama 139
Strong Obama 162 301
Leans Obama 25 25 326
Weak Obama 15 15 15 341
Weak Romney 1 1 1 197
Leans Romney 19 19 196
Strong Romney 139 177
Safe Romney 38

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

0 0 EC # Total % % Obama Romney
8 4 Votes polls Votes Obama Romney % wins % wins
AL 9 1 558 36.6 63.4 0.0 100.0
AK 3 0 (0) (100)
AZ 11 1 775 44.1 55.9 1.2 98.8
AR 6 1* 679 36.8 63.2 0.0 100.0
CA 55 1* 780 59.7 40.3 100.0 0.0
CO 9 3 2577 49.5 50.5 36.0 64.0
CT 7 1 725 54.2 45.8 94.7 5.3
DE 3 0 (100) (0)
DC 3 1 94 88.3 11.7 100.0 0.0
FL 29 3 2548 52.1 47.9 93.3 6.7
GA 16 2 1608 45.4 54.6 0.3 99.7
HI 4 1* 517 64.8 35.2 100.0 0.0
ID 4 0* (0) (100)
IL 20 1* 546 61.5 38.5 100.0 0.0
IN 11 1 344 40.7 59.3 0.8 99.2
IA 6 1 450 48.9 51.1 37.0 63.0
KS 6 1* 442 45.0 55.0 7.6 92.4
KY 8 1* 528 45.5 54.5 6.2 93.8
LA 8 1* 542 41.1 58.9 0.2 99.8
ME 2 1* 516 58.3 41.7 99.6 0.4
ME1 1 1* 488 64.8 35.2 100.0 0.0
ME2 1 1* 421 53.7 46.3 86.2 13.8
MD 10 1* 792 62.4 37.6 100.0 0.0
MA 11 1* 848 58.5 41.5 100.0 0.0
MI 16 4 2257 53.1 46.9 98.1 1.9
MN 10 1 472 53.6 46.4 86.9 13.1
MS 6 1* 717 40.0 60.0 0.0 100.0
MO 10 4 2612 46.1 53.9 0.2 99.8
MT 3 1* 372 45.2 54.8 9.9 90.1
NE 2 1* 553 43.4 56.6 1.4 98.6
NE1 1 1* 389 45.5 54.5 10.1 89.9
NE2 1 1* 252 49.6 50.4 47.5 52.5
NE3 1 1* 284 35.9 64.1 0.0 100.0
NV 6 3 2118 52.7 47.3 96.1 3.9
NH 4 2 1540 52.6 47.4 92.7 7.3
NJ 14 2 1215 56.3 43.7 99.9 0.1
NM 5 1 674 52.7 47.3 83.6 16.4
NY 29 1 1547 63.2 36.8 100.0 0.0
NC 15 3 1819 50.1 49.9 54.0 46.0
ND 3 1* 348 41.4 58.6 1.2 98.8
OH 18 6 4431 52.3 47.7 98.6 1.4
OK 7 1* 448 30.4 69.6 0.0 100.0
OR 7 1* 631 54.4 45.6 93.9 6.1
PA 20 3 2267 54.3 45.7 99.8 0.2
RI 4 1* 495 59.4 40.6 99.8 0.2
SC 9 1* 1833 51.7 48.3 85.1 14.9
SD 3 1 497 46.1 53.9 10.3 89.7
TN 11 1* 654 46.0 54.0 7.3 92.7
TX 38 1* 460 38.9 61.1 0.1 99.9
UT 6 1* 1149 27.7 72.3 0.0 100.0
VT 3 1* 528 67.8 32.2 100.0 0.0
VA 13 4 2734 51.8 48.2 90.6 9.4
WA 12 2 1002 57.2 42.8 99.9 0.1
WV 5 1* 373 40.8 59.2 0.7 99.3
WI 10 4 4240 53.0 47.0 99.7 0.3
WY 3 0 (0) (100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Comments

  1. 1

    Fortunately the election is not today.

    There will be plenty of time, and plenty of money, for questions to be asked.

    Questions, like:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....r_embedded

    How come Obama appropriated from retiree health care to cover the rest of the country?

    And is he going to put the money back?

  2. 2

    Darryl, thanks again for doing this. Why do the Quinnipiac polls not include a margin of error?

  4. 4

    Bob,
    Almost all Quinnipiac polls do include a margin of error, but the ones that don’t this week are the NY Times/CBS News/Quinnipiac polls, because the NY Times did the poll release and they left the info out.

    But that makes me realize that I put the wrong Colorado poll in the table. I put the slightly newer Rasmussen poll in the table, but that was included in the previous batch; I meant to include the Quinnipiac Colorado poll.

    Fortunately, it doesn’t change the analysis, but I’ll fix the table and poll description.

  5. 5

    @ 3

    No matter. I read from a reliable HA source that CO is going Obama this year. He was pretty emphatic about it.

  6. 6

    @ 4

    Darryl, followup question on an unrelated part of the Q poll, which I started perusing after your response (thanks for the answer).

    I think the very last entry on p.12 is the gender breakdown of poll respondents. Is it unusual that VA’s gender was 47M/53F vs. a 50-50ish split? I did some searching and found this:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/me.....nd-states/

    which seems to be telling me that if Obama wins, it will probably be women more than any other demographic group that do it for him.

    Are political poll respondent breakdowns often adjusted to reflect gender?

  7. 7

    The Florida numbers have to be giving the Rmoney campaign shit fits. Losing Florida will be curtains for Rmoney. And the polls do not yet reflect Ryan and The End Of Medicare As We Know It (TM).

  8. 8

    These poll numbers look extremely bad for Rmoney. He almost has to sweep Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina; but this table shows Obama leading in all four of those states, and also in Wisconsin, Nevada, and New Hampshire. If these polls are accurate, Rmoney’s only chance is …

    “Of course, a lot can happen in the 90 days until the election….”

  9. 9

    Republicans are gearing up to sell Ryan as a self-made guy. He’s hardly that — he’s worth millions. And he got it the old-fashioned way: He married money.

  10. 10

    @ 7

    Which poll? The one done by left-leaning PPP that has Obama up by one whole point? It’s two weeks old. You have no idea how Florida is going other than it’s really, really close.

  11. 11

    Looking at the RealClearPolitics maps, it appears the only McCain state in play is South Carolina (9) and the R’s are poised to peel off Indiana (11), and beyond that all the states in play went for Obama in 2008. But Obama got 365 EVs in ’08 so he can afford to lose several states he carried in ’08, including a couple big ones. On the RCP map, winning Ohio and Wisconsin puts Obama within 5 EVs, so winning any one of Nevada, Iowa, or Colorado would do it. Even if Obama lost in Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin, he could still win with a combination of North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), and Nevada (6) (=34, 1 more than needed).

    It’s very hard to see how Rmoney pulls this off unless he wins Florida and Ohio and pulls off an upset in Michigan or Pennsylvania — and even then he’ll need a couple more states (e.g. Wisconsin and Colorado).

    I just can’t see how a Rmoney victory happens unless Obama’s campaign tanks for some reason we don’t see now.

  12. 12

    Well the landslide will bring Republicans down, down

    Look, polls are a snapshot in time. But trends are interesting to watch. Note Darryl’s analysis today, but pay attention to what the events of the selection of Zombie-Eyed-Granny-Starver House Republican leader, Paul Voucher-ize your Medicare Ryan and the Republican National Convention featuring …. today’s Republicans, does going forward.

  14. 14

    Are the attacks on Paul Ryan dishonesty or stupidity? Medicare will not change for anyone at any point in there life if they are over 55. For everyone else, you have a choice for vouchers or medicare. How is a choice bad?

  15. 15

    As far as I can read the results in a quick perusal, non of the polling included dates after Paul Ryan was named as the nominee-apparant. It will be interesting to see polling after that.

    Horsey’s got an interesting analysis, where he works out a somewhat plausable scenario where both Romney and the President are tied at 269 electoral votes, and the Presidental election goes to the House of Representatives. Unless there is a huge change of control of the House in 2012 (improbable), that puts Romney in the White House. But the election of vice-president is controlled by the Senate, which would presumably elect Joe Biden as V.P.

    Uncharted Territory

    So under Horsey’s scenario, you would have a President who won the popular vote and tied in the electoral vote being cast out of office by the opposing party in the House. Moreover, his V.P. is from the opposition party and is the persiding officer of the Senate, able to cast a deciding vote in case of a tie! We haven’t seen that situation since the Adams/Jefferson administration.

  16. 16

    @ 15

    But the election of vice-president is controlled by the Senate, which would presumably elect Joe Biden as V.P.

    Are you not presuming the Senate stays populated mostly by Democrats and Bernie Sanders?

    I do not believe that is a safe presumption. The right guy won the GOP primary in WI last night – Kohl’s seat is a highly likely flip.

  17. 17

    Hopenchange might be flipping the other way this time around:

    Zogby speculates that Romney’s selection of 42-year-old Rep. Paul Ryan helped turn more younger voters to him. “It could be his youthfulness,” said Zogby of Ryan. Plus, he said, more younger voters are becoming libertarian, distrustful of current elected officials and worried that they are going to get stuck with the nation’s looming fiscal bill.

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/.....Cu8whyt_qL

    It’s one thing to say you back a rock star. It’s another thing to have a job so you have money to attend the concert.

  24. 24

    The shooter at the Family Research Council which stands for Family Values

    Sources told Fox News that after guard took away his gun, the suspect said, “Don’t shoot me, it was not about you, it was what this place stands for.”

    So HA moonbat libtards if this is true what say you?

    I bet this is one of Fraggy’s OWS fool friends!

  25. 25

    “…The End Of Medicare As We Know It…”

    The End of Medicare as We Know It? Hell, all we have to do is let things go on as they are, and Medicare will end itself in 2025 or so. If you want to save Medicare, however, you better get behind some way to reduce the cost and eliminate fraud.

  26. 26

    Usual suspects, I have a question for you. If, in a parallel universe, we knew that people who aren’t citizens would surely vote entirely for Republican candidates and support the Reps on all issues, would you guys be so against voter ID laws to preclude non-citizens from voting?

    My guess is that, under the assumption that illegal votes would got to Reps, you usual suspects would be clamoring for vote ID laws! The Reps are simply doing what they perceive to be in their best interest, just like your precious “progressive” Dems and other liberals.

    Being a Libertairian (mainly), I could give a shit whether or not we have voter ID laws.

  27. 27

    @26,

    You forget the Cubans immigrants in Florida in this universe who have voted Rethug for years. I know of no concerted effort to disenfranchise their voting.

  28. 28

    @26,

    BTW, could you produce any lists of anyone voting illegally?
    Maybe also lists of legal voters who were purged by the Rethugs?

  29. 29

    You forget the Cubans immigrants in Florida in this universe who have voted Rethug for years

    Rethug? eskum, what a moron.

    Cubanos remember the DUMMOCRAPT Bay of Pigs fiasco.
    Cubanos remember the DUMMOCRAPT Elian Gonzalez fiasco.
    Cubanos against Obummer reducing restrictions against Castro.

    That’s why Republicans are loved by Cubanos! It’s the Puerto Rican vote that’s the low information DUMMOCRAPT lovers!

    FACTS… make escum look as stupid as ever!

  30. 30

    When this is well known, and people see this, people will start to turn… even the NY Times had to be somewhat level headed.

    Mr. Kolton rejected the comparison with the Swift Boat advertisements, saying they reflected narrow differences of opinion about Mr. Kerry’s war record. He said the Opsec group had a broader purpose in speaking out against leaks and the politicization of the Navy SEALs and the C.I.A., and it hoped to keep working after the election. No one who was involved in the Swift Boat campaign is working with the Opsec group, he said.

  31. 31

    All in all, Judicial Watch obtained 153 pages of records from the Department of Defense, as well as 113 pages of records from the CIA. “These documents, which took nine months and a federal lawsuit to disgorge from the Obama administration, show that politically-connected filmmakers were giving extraordinary and secret access to bin Laden raid information, including the identity of a Seal Team Six leader,” Judicial Watch president Tom Fitton said in a statement.

    Disgusting revelations. Butt then again was this Jay Carney lie…

    Both the Pentagon and Judicial Watch investigations came in the wake of an August 2011 column by New York Times writer Maureen Dowd, in which Dowd accused President Obama’s administration of giving “top-level access to the most classified mission in history” despite having tried “to throw more people in jail for leaking classified information than the Bush administration.” During a press briefing that same month, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney called Dowd’s claims “ridiculous”: “We do not discuss classified information. And I would hope that as we face a continued threat from terrorism, the House Committee on Homeland Security would have more important topics to discuss than a movie,” he continued.

  34. 34

    @32 (continued) In typical puddy fashion, puddy links to a Washington Post article, then asks if the media is going to “actually cover him?”

    Pssst — should I tell him, or let him figure it out?

  35. 35

    @30 It was just a matter of time before wingnuts criticized Obama for killing Osama bin Laden. They feel Osama trespassed on the GOP’s property. All I’ll say is they had 8 years to get him and didn’t get the job done.

  36. 36

    @24 “So HA moonbat libtards if this is true what say you?”

    Same thing I always say when another shooting happens: It’s too damned easy for madmen to get guns.

  37. 37

    Did you know Obummer admitted he’s cutting $700 Billion from Medicare? It has already started.

    Jake Tapper – “One of the concerns about health care and how you pay for it: One third of the funding comes from cuts to Medicare.” Obummer – “Right.” Jake Tapper – “Are you willing to pledge that whatever cuts in Medicare are being made to fund health insurance, one third of it, that you will veto anything that tries to undo” those cuts? Obummer – “Yes!”

  38. 38

    Pssst — should I tell him, or let him figure it out?

    Teevee Roger DUMB Wabbit! Morning and Evening shows Roger DUMB Wabbit. It’s for the low information voters, you know, your relatives in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan; low information OWS peeps loved by Fraggy.

  39. 39

    Yes butt his libtard claimed he was against everything the Family Research Council stood for! And Roger DUMB Wabbit focuses on guns. DUMMOCRAPT radicals.

  42. 42

    @37 The difference is he’s taking it from hospitals and doctors, not from senior citizens as Ryan would do.

  45. 45

    @38 You seem like the type who gets all his “information” from watching teevee, specifically Faux teevee.

  46. 46

    @37 The difference is he’s taking it from hospitals and doctors, not from senior citizens as Ryan would do.

    Ummm nope. Also let’s get this clear. Ryan’s proposal has not passed Obummer’s desk and it isn’t law.

    Obummer’s health care bill passed and it is law. $716 Billion yanked for Medicare. Even Dead Schultz has something to say about it… And he upped the ante cost…

    Now I want to answer this one huge bullet point that’s been out there all weekend long that Democrats seem to have a hard time talking about. And that is, President Obama and the Democrats have cut $750 billion in Medicare and, to help pay for Obamacare.

  48. 48

    You seem like the type who gets all his “information” from watching teevee, specifically Faux teevee.

    Which as been cutting through the libtard BS from the crap you incessantly watch!

  49. 49

    At least she didn’t run down her boyfriend with a car like her predecessor did.

    Wow Roger DUMB Wabbit…

    Another stooooooooooopid comment! Bush isn’t running DUMB Wabbit!

  51. 51

    Purple Strategies Polls just released on Key States–
    Ohio: Romney 46, Obama 44
    Florida: Romney 48, Obama 47
    Colorado: Obama 49, Romney 46
    Virginia: Romney 48, Obama 45

  52. 52

    Will da professa add this poll?

    Romney has seen the largest gain in Ohio, a state we have seen bounce between the campaigns over the last few months. Today, the GOP ticket leads by 2 points (46% to 44%), compared to July when President Obama led the state 48% to 45%. Romney also gained ground in Virginia – today,he and Paul Ryan hold a 3-point advantage in the race (48% to 45%), while Romney trailed by2 points in July

    then

    However, President Obama has seen improvements in Colorado and Florida. In Colorado, the Obama-Biden ticket now leads 49% to 46%, an increase from a 1-point lead in July. In Florida, the Democratic ticket trails by just 1 point (48% to 47%), compared to a 3 point deficit in July

  54. 54

    The Ryan plan abolishes PPACA but KEEPS the cuts to Medicare..

    That’s nice ylbitchslapped ylbuttspigot… but Ryan isn’t the head of the ticket. Romney is, and Romney isn’t touching Medicare!

    You forgot you pal Dead Schultz… it’s $750 Billion!

    Keep reading that Daily Kooks web site.

  56. 56

    Another EPIC FAYLE from the crazed deranged one, ylbitchslapped ylbuttspigot.

    One of the dumbest of the HA libtards, leaving his diarrhea stains everywhere!

  57. 57

    @54 “but Ryan isn’t the head of the ticket. Romney is, and Romney isn’t touching Medicare!”

    BWAAAAAAHAAAAAAHAAAAA HAAAA HAAA HAA HAR DE HAR!!!

    Funniest thing you’ve said today!

  58. 58

    So are we to understand Rmoney put Ryan on the ticket because he doesn’t support the Ryan budget!

    HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR

  61. 61

    Puddles has figured out Rmoney’s strategy:

    Step 1: Put Ryan on the ticket.
    Step 2: Reassure voters he won’t support Ryan’s Medicare plan!

    Sounds like a winner!

    HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR HAR

  62. 62

    @60 I don’t own a teevee, lameass! No room for one in my burrow. Too many serious books down here.

  64. 64

    “The plan that this ticket will be supporting is the Romney plan, and the Romney plan has slight differences with the Ryan plan,” former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu, a high profile Romney surrogate, told CNN’s “The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer.”

    There you have it Roger DUMB Wabbit… Stay away from the left wing kook sites!

  65. 65

    Here’s Proof That Mitt Romney And Paul Ryan Will Lose The Election If It Becomes A Referendum On Medicare

    The economy stupid ylbitchslapped ylbuttspigot!

  67. 67

    Says he likes the Ryan plan except for keeping the 716 billion in “cuts”.

    How is that a big spender ylbitchslapped ylbuttspigot?

    Stooooooooooooooopid and bitchslapped again!

  69. 69

    LMAO!!! Hedge Funder – that means rich and to right wing dings – everything they say might as well come from God.

    One man’s opinion ylbitchslapped ylbuttspigot! It is the economy ylbitchslapped ylbuttspigot!

    Stooooooooooooooopid and bitchslapped again! NEXT!

  70. 70

    How is that a big spender

    LMAO!! You haven’t been paying attention stupid!

    The whole idea of Medicare Advantage was to drive down the cost of health insurance for the elderly as private insurance companies competing for seniors’ business.

    That’s not what happened. By 2010, the average Medicare Advantage per-patient cost was 117 percent of regular fee-for-service. The Affordable Care Act gives those private plans a haircut and tethers reimbursement levels to the quality of care administered, and patient satisfaction.

    Dullard wants to overpay i.e. grease contributor palms!

  73. 73

    I thought right wingers didn’t like earmarks..

    Then why did Ryan use them?

    Through 2007, Ryan regularly requested government money for special projects back home. Earmarks grew out of control during the Bush years, but most of what Ryan asked for, and got, was defensible: four hundred thousand dollars for a water-treatment plant; three hundred thousand for a technical college where G.M. workers could be retrained; seven hundred and thirty-five thousand for Janesville’s bus system; and $3.3 million for highway projects throughout Wisconsin.

    Aaaah.. He had a change of heart… The article continues:

    In 2008, however, Ryan vowed not to request earmarks anymore; he later helped push through an outright ban.

    http://www.newyorker.com/repor.....ntPage=all

    What a creep! First he wants to help his district and then he doesn’t care.. People must be kinda slow on the uptake there.

  75. 75

    Thank you Paul Ryan..

    For helping us to elect Elizabeth Warren.

    Brown praised Ryan as a thoughtful and serious leader on budgetary ­issues, but the Massachusetts Republican was quick to point out that he voted twice to block consideration of ­Ryan’s budget in the Senate.

    http://www.boston.com/news/pol.....own_story/

    Heh. See Scotty run from the dynamic duo!

    Dullard with his first big decision as a pretender to the White House has really helped those Republicans DOWN-BALLOT!

  76. 76

    @ 73

    Did you catch that your link said the earmarks were defensible?

    I have no problem with earmarks that are put in early in the process and subject to mark-up review. If they’re out there, I’m OK with it. It’s the ones that get put in that occur late in the process, out of public view, that piss me off.

    Ryan’s district has roads and highways just like any other and his constituents pay taxes. It’s not inappropriate to ask for help here and there.

    At one time, money spent on retraining of GM workers laid off from their jobs was something people on HA didn’t criticize.

    I guess since he’s a conservative, he just has to bend over and take it.

  79. 79

    For helping us to elect Elizabeth Warren.

    Does ylbitchslapped ylbuttspigot read his alternate site for left wrong news TPM, Soledad O’Brien’s favrit garbage zone? Elizabeth Warren barely reaches 41% in a true libtard state. These libtards are so up Obummer’s butt they have seen sunlight in 3.5 years.

    Stooooooooooooooopid and bitchslapped again! NEXT!

  81. 81

    The Obummer sadministration “edict“. More screwing of the American people… butt let’s hide it.

    “You can’t not comply with the law,” Inhofe said on Tuesday. “Put yourself on the board of directors of Lockheed Martin. If they came out with a class-action suit of a thousand dollars per employee, that would be $120 million. You bet they’re going to send out pink slips. And by the way, they don’t have to wait until Nov. 2. They can send them out today if they want,” Inhofe added.

    …

    “At a time when our economy continues to suffer from staggeringly high unemployment, the Obama Administration today took away an important planning tool for Americans who may lose their jobs as a result of the failure of Congress and the White House to address the looming and entirely predictable threat of budget sequestration. Sequestration is currently the law of the land, and our nation’s workers have a right to know how these sequestration cuts which begin in January may impact them,” the senators said in a news release.

    Following the law? Now the way things are done in Chicago.

    The news, factual and missed by HA libtards reading left wrong sites. What was that again ylbitchslapped ylbuttspigot?

    Unlike Roger DUMB Wabbit who gets away with copying large parts of articles and gets away with it being a libtard, Puddy tries to follow the blog “edicts”. We know Roger DUMB Wabbit gets a pass because senility is apparent in his sunset years!

    Stooooooooooooooopid and bitchslapped again!

  82. 82

    Why? Because most libtards don’t know who’s their daddy! They are low information voters who rely on Obummer to feed and clothe them!

  83. 83

    Remember this Alexander Pelosi expose on welfare kings and queens?

    “I’m here trying to get some Obama bucks. That‘s what I’m doing, trying to get some Obama money.”
    “I want a check.”
    “Tell me why you like Obama.” — “Because he gives me stuff.”
    “Who you going to vote for?” — “Obama.” — “Why?” — “Because he’s black.”
    “When was the last time you actually worked?” — “About half a decade”
    “You’re a perfectly healthy young man, why aren’t you working right now?” — “My background. Once you go to jail it’s hard to get a job.”
    “Why should my tax dollars be going to you?” — “My ancestors came here to help build this place — my ancestors, slaves.”
    “Do you really want to work, or do you just want to get a free check?” — “I just want to get a free check.”

    Just a few of the comments

  84. 84

    gman,

    Seems one of yours shot someone because he didn’t like what he was guarding stood for. What say you gman?

    Why you gays/lezzies have so much hate? Puddy heard progressives were inclusive. Puddy knows better. Haters!

  85. 85

    @83 – Damn, Puddy, race-bait much?

    You Repigs need to get a new playbook.
    That shit don’t work like it did for Bush Sr. back in the Willie Horton era … which is one of the things that gives me some hope for this country.

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