It’s about damn time! Within the last 24 hours, we have finally gotten the first new state polls of 2012, putting Obama head-to-head with Romney.
The first new one is a PPP poll from North Carolina that has Obama leading Romney by +1% (46% to 45%). The second poll, taken in Florida by Quinnipiac, isn’t quite as nice for Obama who trails Romney by -3% (43% to 46%). Obama led in the previous Florida poll taken in early December, by +7.
| Obama | Romney |
| 78.5% probability of winning | 21.5% probability of winning |
| Mean of 294 electoral votes | Mean of 244 electoral votes |
In this analysis employing 100,000 simulated elections, Obama won 78,482 times and Romney won 21,518 times (including the 996 ties). Obama received (on average) 294 to Romney’s 244 electoral votes. The results suggest that in an election held now, Obama would have a 78.5% probability of winning and Romney a 21.5% probability of winning.
Obama’s chances drop from 96% in the previous analysis.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 290 electoral votes with a 1.47% probability
- 274 electoral votes with a 1.43% probability
- 308 electoral votes with a 1.39% probability
- 277 electoral votes with a 1.38% probability
- 289 electoral votes with a 1.38% probability
- 280 electoral votes with a 1.38% probability
- 293 electoral votes with a 1.37% probability
- 278 electoral votes with a 1.36% probability
- 284 electoral votes with a 1.36% probability
- 292 electoral votes with a 1.35% probability
After 100000 simulations:
- Obama wins 78.5%, Romney wins 21.5%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 293.9 (30.5)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 244.1 (30.5)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 292 (237, 355)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 246 (183, 301)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Obama | 77 | |||
| Strong Obama | 113 | 190 | ||
| Leans Obama | 84 | 84 | 274 | |
| Weak Obama | 16 | 16 | 16 | 290 |
| Weak Romney | 0 | 0 | 0 | 248 |
| Leans Romney | 138 | 138 | 248 | |
| Strong Romney | 52 | 110 | ||
| Safe Romney | 58 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 0 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 8 | Votes | polls | Votes | Obama | Romney | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1* | 754 | 37.8 | 62.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| AZ | 11 | 1* | 455 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 11.8 | 88.2 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 1744 | 40.4 | 59.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 1* | 900 | 55.6 | 44.4 | 99.1 | 0.9 | ||
| CO | 9 | 1* | 730 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 66.1 | 33.9 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1* | 544 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 64.2 | 35.8 | ||
| DE | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| DC | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| FL | 29 | 1 | 1257 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 20.2 | 79.8 | ||
| GA | 16 | 1 | 582 | 40.9 | 59.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 517 | 64.8 | 35.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| IL | 20 | 1* | 846 | 54.5 | 45.5 | 96.7 | 3.3 | ||
| IN | 11 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| IA | 6 | 1* | 1277 | 54.1 | 45.9 | 98.4 | 1.6 | ||
| KS | 6 | 1* | 442 | 45.0 | 55.0 | 6.8 | 93.2 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1* | 528 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 6.9 | 93.1 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1* | 542 | 41.1 | 58.9 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| ME | 4 | 1* | 586 | 56.3 | 43.7 | 98.2 | 1.8 | ||
| MD | 10 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| MA | 11 | 1* | 905 | 63.3 | 36.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 1* | 522 | 47.1 | 52.9 | 18.2 | 81.8 | ||
| MN | 10 | 1* | 456 | 53.3 | 46.7 | 84.1 | 15.9 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1* | 717 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MO | 10 | 1* | 435 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 30.4 | 69.6 | ||
| MT | 3 | 1* | 1462 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1* | 658 | 42.7 | 57.3 | 0.5 | 99.5 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 269 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 54.5 | 45.5 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 1* | 204 | 45.6 | 54.4 | 18.7 | 81.3 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 1* | 185 | 29.2 | 70.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NV | 6 | 1 | 513 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 86.2 | 13.8 | ||
| NH | 4 | 1* | 993 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 23.6 | 76.4 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 1 | 683 | 61.5 | 38.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1 | 455 | 58.2 | 41.8 | 99.4 | 0.6 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1 | 1006 | 60.2 | 39.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 1 | 710 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 58.0 | 42.0 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1* | 480 | 41.3 | 58.8 | 0.4 | 99.6 | ||
| OH | 18 | 1* | 1222 | 49.4 | 50.6 | 38.8 | 61.2 | ||
| OK | 7 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| OR | 7 | 1* | 464 | 54.7 | 45.3 | 92.8 | 7.2 | ||
| PA | 20 | 1* | 363 | 52.3 | 47.7 | 72.8 | 27.2 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1* | 495 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| SC | 9 | 1* | 1833 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 85.4 | 14.6 | ||
| SD | 3 | 1* | 454 | 37.7 | 62.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| TN | 11 | 1* | 1139 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 11.6 | 88.4 | ||
| TX | 38 | 1* | 560 | 48.6 | 51.4 | 31.5 | 68.5 | ||
| UT | 6 | 1* | 688 | 33.0 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1* | 1085 | 61.4 | 38.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 2 | 1516 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 60.3 | 39.7 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1* | 496 | 54.2 | 45.8 | 90.9 | 9.1 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 811 | 38.0 | 62.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| WI | 10 | 1* | 445 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 79.7 | 20.3 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0* | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
But one thing that hasn’t YET come into play (WRT the polls) is how much damage will be inflicted in the next few days by the ads & 28min video by Gingrich supporters/PAC.
I watched a few minutes of their 28min ‘When Romney Came to Town’. Had to quit because the Youtube (supplied by nonrelated person) had not too great sound. But CLEARLY the people talking and the stories being given were powerful – especially to regular people.
Can’t wait to watch the PAC supplied copy, cause it looks to be a humdinger!
Wow, I finally got to see a good watch. If this doesn’t make people step up and take notice, I don’t know what could:
When Mitt Romney Came To Town — Full, complete version
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....e=youtu.be
FricknFrack,
Thanks for the link. I’ll post it on Friday night. Yeah…the poll analyses at this point in the election season have a pretty big lag because state polls are so infrequent. The pace of polls will pick up greatly leading up to the actual election.
Definitely a scientific and neutral approach … but you don’t seriously see South Carolina voting for a Democrat? Happened only once in the last 50 years (Carter in 1976) … hell, Massachusetts voted Republican more often than that (Reagan in 1980 and 1984).
Romney’s strength in Michigan, where he grew up, appears to be a major advantage. Plus the shift of about eight or so electoral votes from blue states to red states in the 2010 census.
Romney’s strength may be understated in the Carolinas and Virginia, so Obama will really need to focus on Michigan, Ohio and Florida if he is to be re-elected.
@3: It deserves its own thread.
Richard Pope,
“ you don’t seriously see South Carolina voting for a Democrat?”
It doesn’t really matter what I think, does it? The most recent SC poll (early Dec) sees it that way (for now). It does seem like an odd polling result, but the sample size was huge, and the polling company (Marist) is a reputable pollster.
Marist did an October SC poll as well. That one had Romney leading 46% to 40%.