This is a quick follow-up to my previous post about the new Washington Poll. The poll surveyed 938 registered voters from 10th Oct to 30th Oct.
In the Washington Governor’s race, the poll found Rep. Jay Inslee behind AG Rob McKenna by 38.4% to 43.9% with 17.7% undecided. The question is, how do these numbers translate into the probability that McKenna would beat Inslee if the election had been held in October. As is my habit, I employ Monte Carlo methods, simulating a million elections of 938 voters randomly drawing votes at the observed percentages.
The results give Inslee 92,405 “elections” and McKenna 903,409 “elections.” Thus, McKenna would have about a 91% probability of winning an election held in October. Here’s the picture:
By a traditional statistical assessment, McKenna’s lead is not “significant,” in that he doesn’t break the 95% threshold. Still…McKenna would be the likely winner. He was also leading Inslee by 34% to 38% in a late September SurveyUSA poll (and one other partisan poll as well.)
As Eli Sanders points out, there is a bright side for Inslee. He has cut into McKenna’s support in the Puget Sound region:
While September’s KING 5/Survey USA poll showed Inslee running dead even with McKenna in the Puget Sound region (a terrible sign for Inslee’s chances of pulling out a statewide victory), yesterday’s Washington Poll showed Inslee up by five points among Puget Sound voters.
I would add that in the poll before that by SurveyUSA poll, Inslee led McKenna. McKenna still had 44%, but Inslee had 47%. The difference is that only 9% were undecided. (And Inslee led by 7% points in “metro Seattle.”)
The evidence is too weak for any certainty, but taken together, the trend looks like Inslee gains over McKenna (particularly in the Puget sound region) when undecided voters make up their minds.
It’s a long way from election day. I don’t think McKenna will win in November, 2012.
It looks like turnout will be a factor again. (Does that term even apply anymore, with mail-in ballots)? The encouraging factor is that it is a presidential election year, which should bring out the Puget-Sound area voters in droves.
The logistics problem is how to rally the numerous college students here, some of whom remain registered at their homes. The governor’s race is, obviously, a state-wide race, so any in-state student could vote. But if they receive their ballots at their parent’s residence, their parents might not get them to them in time to vote. Students need to make sure they get their ballots. And the parents need to put them in a new envelope for mailing, because trying to write a “forward” on a voting envelope might cause problems.
Inslee is going to need a lot of money. With the Times and other papers calling McKenna a “moderate”, it’s going to take some work to make his right-wing positions stick to him in voter’s minds. What we really need is a Tea-Party candidate to challenge Mckenna so he’s forced to move to the right, publically. But in the absence of that there’s going to need to be a lot of TV airtime.
The Yes campaign on the Costco initiative is a pretty good example of how unlimited resources and an establishment which favors a particular result can control the debate. We need a boatful of money to combat that.
Inslee needs to use the Patty Murray playbook – keep hitting Mckenna on him being a right winger siding with the banks and wallstreets.
Mckenna is very right wing – he’s no moderate.
The Puget Sound region will come around as the election nears. If what we’ve seen from the last few elections holds true, Inslee needs to do a bunch of work down in Vancouver and over in Spokane to make sure McKenna can’t score big wins there.
The Winning Republican strategy is: don’t lose big in the Puget Sound region and win big outside of it.
Inslee’s folks are doing some strange tele-calling — received a call from them over the weekend. The purpose? To tell me he’s a Democrat (or that was the basic thrust of the call).
Inslee will have to pull his head out of his ass and run! Where the FUCK has he been these past few months while Rob Prison Bitch McKenna has been seen everywhere?