A new SurveyUSA poll (for King 5) has been released in the gubernatorial race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D) and AG Rob McKenna (R). The poll of 630 registered Washington voters (4% MOE) has McKenna up by a hair: 42% to Inslee’s 41%.
A Monte Carlo analysis of the poll results that used a million simulated elections found that Inslee won 413,294 times and McKenna won 573,952 times. This suggests that, if the election was held today, McKenna would be the winner with a 58.1% probability and Inslee would win with a 41.9% probability. Here is the distribution of election outcomes from the simulations:
The new poll is a small improvement for Inslee, who was down by -2% and -3% in a pair of overlapping mid-June polls. The combined analysis of those two polls gave McKenna a 79.1% probability of beating Inslee in an election held in June.
Here is the polling history in the race to date:
Although the race has tightened up considerably since last fall, the graph suggests that McKenna still maintains a narrow, but real, edge in the race.
Gee, the only real change since last fall is (a) McKenna lost his challenge to the Affordable Care Act; and (b) Inslee came out with a statewide ad.
I don’t think the first point made a ripple, those that already knew about McKenna’s position on the ACA were going to vote for or against him anyway, the ACA just provided additional push for them. So I’m thinking that Inslee’s TV add has had a major impact on name-recognition. It was a great “introductory” ad.
Now if Inslee hammers down on McKenna for trying to overturn the ACA, he can probably pick up some more points among the average Western Washington voter who still thinks McKenna is a “centerist”.
Inslee didn’t have very good name recognition and started getting his campaign offices around the state opened and stuffed with volunteers later than he should have. I’d give it a few more weeks before sweating over this one. But, this is the race we could could lose.
Here is where you can watch labor unions against McKenna, especially those who work for that labor thug Trumka!
Wait for it…
Yes, McKenna was out there front and center protecting Washingtonians against a hidden tax mandate. Now we know it’s a REAL tax (SCOTUS opinion) on all Washingtonians. Now we know WA State won’t be hit with the commerce clause. And… now WA State has flexibility on using Medicare $$$ in the future against the ACA. Lastly, Boeing may exceed Cadillac health care plan limits in the future with new machinist contracts. Yep, McKenna tried to stop it and the average middle class person reaped the “benefit”.
McKenna says he disagrees with the Boy Scouts re-affirmation of it’s policies against gays as scouts and leaders. McKenna is an Eagle Scout and is on the council of the Chief Seattle Council. Okay, fair enough.
But some conservatives in Eastern Washington are having a cow, saying that Republican voters should drop their support of McKenna for the governor’s race. They say that his position allows the Boy Scouts to return child molesters into their organization – which mis-characterizes the situation completely.
I’m a former Boy Scout, and Eagle Scout. I understand how difficult it is for the organization to change, but will have to do so eventually. But it’s policy against gays haven’t protected it against child molesters in the past, so there’s no reason to think it will do so in the future. And to characterize McKenna’s position as allowing gays to “return” to scouting is a complete mis-characterization of the situation.
I don’t want McKenna to be governor, but I can’t help but feel a little sorry for him. He’s trying despereately to stake out a “moderate” position, and these Tea Party hacks keep nipping at him, insisting on ideological purity to whatever happens to appeal to them at the moment.
I wonder if McKenna is going to dare claiming that he operated his office with effeciency in the next debate? The easy rejoinder is to point out how much money was wasted in his futile attempt to use the challenge to the ACA, in what was in effect a futile attempt to appease any potential Tea Party opposition to his run for Governor.
What was the non-response rate? A sample was drawn. Of those who responded, 42% McKenna, 41% Inslee, 17% other/don’t know. I would guess 900% non-response (a 10% response rate). That would mean 4% McKenna, 4% Inslee, 2% other /don’t know. Are the other 90% like the 42/41/17 split? Why did they choose (or not choose) not to respond? Non-response bias?