by Darryl, 10/22/2012, 9:30 PM

Strategies 360 has released a new poll that covers, among other things, the Washington state gubernatorial race between former Congressman Jay Inslee (D) and state AG Rob Mckenna (R). The poll of 500 likely voters (4.4% MOE) was taken from the 17th to the 20th of October.

The poll is tied up at 46% when leaners are included. (Without leaners, Inslee leads McKenna 43% to 40%, but my policy is to work with the numbers that include leaners.)

Obviously, at 50% each there is little point at running a Monte Carlo analysis. But, we now have four polls covering this race over the past several weeks:

Start End Sample % %
Poll date date size MOE Inslee McKenna
Strategies 360 17-Oct 20-Oct 500 4.4 46.0 46.0
PPP 15-Oct 16-Oct 574 48.0 42.0
SurveyUSA 12-Oct 14-Oct 543 4.3 47.0 44.0
Washington Poll 01-Oct 16-Oct 644 3.9 47.1 46.3

So, it would be worth analyzing all four of these polls together. The pooled polls gives a sample of 2,801 of which 2,558 go for one or the other candidates. Inslee gets 1,323 (47.2%) of the “votes” and McKenna gets 1,235 (44.1%).

The Monte Carlo analysis of 1,000,000 simulated elections using the pooled data gives Inslee wins 890,208 times and McKenna wins 107,592 times. If the election was held now, we would expect Inslee to win with a 89.2% probability and McKenna with a 10.8% probability. Here is the distribution of election outcomes:

FIVEOCTPolls

Clearly, what we have had all October is a very close race, but one in which Inslee has maintained a small edge. It looks to me like the race has tightened up a bit since September, as frequently happens in the final weeks of an election:

GenericCongress22Sep12-22Oct12Washington

The poll had a number of other interesting results for other races as well:

  • Obama 51%, Romney 35%
  • Initiative 1240 (Charter schools): 51% support, 34% oppose
  • Initiative 502 (marijuana): 54% support, 38% oppose
  • Referendum 74 (Uphold same-sex marriage law): 55% approve, 38% reject

The poll also asked people’s opinion on some topics. In looking for strategies to raise revenue to meet the Supreme Court’s ruling to better fund public education, 54% supported and 41% opposed an income tax on people making more that $200K. For capital gains tax on investment income, 47% supported the idea and 44% opposed. What people really hated was increases in state property tax, sales tax or B&O tax. Most people (59% support, 36% oppose) support an increase in state funding for higher education.

All in all, this survey makes Washington state look solid blue—except for that squeaker of a gubernatorial race.

13 Responses to “Poll Analysis: Inslee and McKenna tied up”

1. Tea for everyone spews:

So how is the polling on initiatve 1185 doing? It has passed with flying colors every other time it has been run!

2. Darryl spews:

Tea for everyone,

Thanks for the on-topic question!

I-1185 was not assessed by the Strategies 360 poll.

But the Washington Poll (link in the table) did assess the initiative. It found 53.6% for, and 31.2% against.

3. Roger Rabbit spews:

“54% supported and 41% opposed an income tax on people making more that $200K”

Interesting, considering that not very long ago an initiative to this effect was clobbered in the voting booths.

4. rhp6033 spews:

I’m not surprised that the governor’s race is tightening a bit, considering the considerable mud-slinging adds that McKenna and the Republican Governor’s Association have been throwing on TV and in our mailboxes. It’s gotten to the point that I sort our mail at the garbage can, any political mail (from either party) goes straight into the garbage can, and never makes it into the house.

5. Serial conservative spews:

@ 4

I’m not surprised that the governor’s race is tightening a bit, considering the considerable mud-slinging adds that McKenna and the Republican Governor’s Association have been throwing on TV and in our mailboxes.

You seem to think that gubernatorial elections have not had a history of close result in this state.

2004 was a squeaker.

In 2008, Team Gregoire, right up until the end, expected a very, very close result, and was surprised by the length of Obama’s coattails.

Those coattails do not exist this year.

My feeling is that a close election (I think Inslee pulls it out unless Obama totally collapses in the final two weeks) is the norm in our current political arena unless one of the candidates is a Craswell-type.

Oh. Inslee and Co. have been throwing up plenty of ads themselves.

6. rhp6033 spews:

# 5: You seem to think that gubernatorial elections have not had a history of close result in this state.

I don’t know what gave you that impression. That’s not what I said. I’ve been seeing the flood of political ads for the past two weeks, I was wondering if they were going to have any effect in the polls.

And if I ever see another TV add which as people talking at a restaurant table, I may forego eating at restaurants again. It’s just another of the “peer pressure” tactics, which I find abhorant.

7. Resident Troll spews:

@4 – The political fliers that you consider garbage was business for the print companies that made them and revenue generate from the postage to mail them to you. Jobs, jobs, jobs!

8. Jerry spews:

Can one of you Democrats please explain why in the world the Washington Democrat Party would take $50,000 from a hater like JZ Knight?

9. Darryl spews:

Bob,

“Those coattails do not exist this year.”

Oh? Obama was +17 in 2008. The Strategies 360 gives O+16. Even if WA only ends up at O+12, it is pretty hard to argue that Obama won’t provide a tangible, positive down ballot environment for Democrats.

Your statement is either uninformed, or a very amateurish attempt at propaganda.

10. Jerry spews:

Why is the Washington State Democrat Party taking money from nutjob JZ Knight?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zMn8wOfrSM&feature=youtube_gdata_player

She is a very disgusting whatever.

11. Piltdown Man spews:

LMFAO @ JZ Knight….

Nuts attract nuts…..

12. Piltdown Man spews:

Ramtha in the house!

13. YLB spews:

Can one of you right wing whackjobs please explain why in the world the Republicans would take million upon millions of dollars from haters like Sheldon Adelson and the Koch Brothers – dealers of vice and destruction of the environment?