Update: As Richard Pope points out in the comment thread, the numbers in the post didn’t match the headline. The headline is correct. I screwed up typing Inslee’s number into a database, and the error spread from there. All fixed now.
A new poll is about to be released in the Washington gubernatorial race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) and state Attorney General Rob McKenna. The poll surveyed 532 registered voters and was conducted on behalf of KING 5 by Survey USA. KING 5‘s Robert Mak gives a brief overview of the results.
0f the 532 surveyed, 404 436 had an opinion: 170 202 (32 38%) supported Inslee and 234 (44%) supported McKenna. The undecided group made up 24.1 18%. I did my typical Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections at the observed percentages. Inslee “won” 11,474 136,028 times and McKenna “won” 987,293 856,218 times.
The results suggest that, if the election was held today, McKenna would win with a 98.9 86.3% probability. Note that since McKenna’s probability of winning is less than 95%, the lead is not considered “significant” by traditional statistical reasoning.
It is, of course, too early to panic over this poll, particularly with 24 18% undecided. Nevertheless, this poll puts McKenna in the lead. Last week a poll from Strategies 360, a Democratic consulting firm, showed a similar lead for McKenna, 46% to 39%. I generally ignore polls from partisan consultants or polls commissioned by campaigns, but the similarity in results is noteworthy. The previous “real” poll for this race was from Survey USA in late June and showed Inslee with a small, non-significant lead over McKenna, 47% to 44% (my analysis is here).
Mac points out for today’s poll:
McKenna’s early lead can be attributed in part to his strength in the Puget Sound area. In King, Pierce and Snohomish counties, he’s even with Inslee at 41% each, which is significant for a Republican candidate. As expected, McKenna picks up votes in more conservative eastern Washington with a 59%-25% advantage.
Inslee has, apparently, lost ground to McKenna on both fronts: in June he was up 49% to 42% in Seattle and McKenna was up 51% to 41% in eastern Washington.
This race is being touted as the hottest Governor’s race in the country, and the best G.O.P. gubernatorial pick-up opportunity in the nation. It’s certainly living up to the hype!
Well one thing we DO know today, and that is that this is NOT election day, and the campaign has not even begun yet. You’re mostly wasting our time here.
Please show us a poll taken a few weeks AFTER the visible campaign starts.
That’s not a good sign, but it’s so early that the campaigns haven’t really started yet. One of the things that has to happen and the earlier the better, is forcing the MSM to give up on their charade of calling McKenna a moderate.
re 2: Good luck on that one.
Driver,
“You’re mostly wasting our time here.”
Fuck you. We have high expectations for our readers here. Specifically, we presume readers who are uninterested in the early score for these races have the rudimentary intelligence necessary to to recognize and avert their precious gaze from such posts. An early clue is a title beginning something like “Poll Analysis…”
@3
Yeah, I know.
Maybe just maybe people see Jay Inslee as your standard DUMMOCRAPT politician. Maybe they see Inslee as another Barack ObamAA+ rubba stamp!
Maybe just maybe people have buyers remorse after erecting Queen Chrissy and seeing how she claimed there was no looming budget shortfall after Dino claimed one was coming and then hear Queen Chrissy’s spokesman claim “We have a resilient economy compared to the national economy.” Well I guess the WA State economy isn’t as resilient as she claims!
So is McKenna ahead of Inslee by 44% to 38%, or by 44% to 32%?
0f the 532 surveyed, 404 had an opinion: 170 (32%) supported Inslee and 234 (44%) supported McKenna. The undecided group made up 24.1%.
@6 “Maybe just maybe people see Jay Inslee as your standard DUMMOCRAPT politician.”
It’s far more likely the dummy is YOU.
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Richard,
The headline was right…. I screwed up entering the numbers into a database, causing errors to…ahem…propagate. Revised analyses shortly. Thanks for pointing out the inconsistency.
I don’t think this poll is much more complicated than the fact McKenna has higher name recognition among low information voters because the state AG tends to get more statewide press coverage than a congressman. Even in Inslee’s district how much reportage is there on what he does in D.C. 3,000 miles away?
So are you saying McKenna’s King, Pierce and Snohomish name recognition among DUMMOCRAPT blue areas is because they are low information voters? Do Tell!
Damn Roger DOPEY Rabbit, Puddy been saying that for years about those three WA blue counties! Glad you are getting oxygen to the brain today!
Puddy,
KIng, Snohomish, and PIerce Counties have low information voters as compared to what–Lewis, Stevens, and Okanogan? It is hard to imagine a more twisted partisan perspective than yours. Really, how do you figure out the logistics of a successful bathroom experience?
@12 That’s pretty close to what I’m saying, puddydope! To be more precise about it, the 40% of King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties who consistently vote Republican are no information voters, not low information voters. And you’re one of ’em.
@14
There are knuckledraggers everywhere. They must breed like rabbits (sorry, Rog).
You know, the Rapture ™ wouldn’t be such a bad thing, really.
@16 They’re not smart enough to breed. (Earthworms and bark beetles can do it, but they’re not that smart.) I’ve always believed they come into existence the same way virtual particles do.
Here proud leftist, read this again…
I understand Roger DOPEY Rabbit has issues, but didn’t think your brain was oxygen starved so early in life! For 18% to be undecided demonstrates how people are not thrilled about another DUMMOCRAPT who was a Barack ObamAA+ rubba stamp. We’re talking about the big blue zone dude.
Inslee ought to ask Darcy burner for advice on how to lose to a moderate republican. Tie your horse to the far left, and lose baby lose
@18 “moderate republican”
no such thing
Reichert exemplifies Republican incompetence — it took him 20 years to catch a prolific serial killer who was right under his nose.
@17 “how people are not thrilled about another DUMMOCRAPT”
Really? Try this one for size:
“A new KING 5 Poll finds Democrat Bob Ferguson leading Republican Reagan Dunn in the race for Washington’s Attorney General next year.
“The KING 5/SurveyUSA poll finds Ferguson at 39 percent, Dunn at 34 percent and a large 26 percent are undecided.”
http://www.king5.com/news/poli.....03548.html
Oh, and it appears the GOPers finally scraped up a patsy to oppose Cantwell, but they had to go all the way to Hong Kong to find one. Nobody in Washington would do it.
http://www.king5.com/news/poli.....08293.html
In addition to McKenna’s better name ID, he’s also been advertising quite a bit the last couple months (though, wisely, not on TV – too early), so I’m not surprised he’s up at this point. I’ve seen a lot less of Inslee. With so much money coming into the race, by Nov. 2012 we’ll be sick of both of them. And it will be very, very close.
Puddy @ 17
I’ll buy lunch if McKenna wins, you buy if Inslee does–winner gets to choose where. Deal?
re 22: He’s been doing ‘public service’ TV spots — like: “I’m against murder — always have been. Oh, and I’m Rob McKenna.’
As Roger points out before the ultimate low info voter spewed, Inslee isn’t really known outside of his district.
However, if he does adopt a similar hand wringing” light touch Democratic strategy, he might have a difficult time pulling ahead.
Stand up for what you believe in, put your cards on the table and tell people what you think has to happen to change things. And then act in a way consistent with your words.
Under $100? In Seattle?
DEAL!
I agree… He’s a Barack ObamAA+ yes man!
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I’m kind of hoping Inslee wins…to watch him try to wrestle with the massive deficit the Democrats have created in Olympia.
Inslee will be yet another Union pawn.
BTW,..did you here Donald Trump comment on what a moron Gary Locke is about Chinese relations?
Deboner @29,
What!!?? You want Inslee to win!!?? You don’t want a Koch Whore as our governor, like Wisconsin got with Scott Walker?
Man, do you remember that recording of little Scotty jumping on the phone when he thought it was his master on the other end? Now that was funny. He even admitted to potential criminal actions. What a governor, and we could have a governor just like him.
Deboner @29,
I’m not surprised that The Donald is your hero.
The Donald is such a clever guy. Buy some property. Do PR to pump up the “value” by lying. Make some promises you won’t keep. Sell the property for a gain. Then just walk away. Don’t worry about all the unhappy customers. Too bad The Donald isn’t protected from those pesky frivolous lawsuits.