SurveyUSA has released new poll results for the King County Executive race. The poll has Dow Constantine trailing Susan Hutchinson by 43.6% to 46.7%, with 9.7% still undecided:
Hutchison…leads 2:1 among Republicans, conservatives, and those who are not college graduates. Constantine…leads by more nearly 3:1 among liberals and by nearly 2:1 among Democrats.
The poll, taken from 1 September to 3 September, surveyed 557 likely King County voters, giving a ±4.2% margin of error. The difference between the two percentages is not statistically significant—that is, the result is a statistical tie.
Even so, we can explore a what would happen if the election was held today. A Monte Carlo analysis of a million simulated elections, using the observed preferences, and a population of 557 voters, gives Hutchinson 696,575 wins, and Constantine 292,554 wins. In other words, for an election held now, we would expect Hutchinson to have a 70.4% probability of winning. This graph shows the distribution of outcomes from the simulated elections:
Fresh on the heels of the primary, public opinion has two months to evolve until the November election. The process, so far, has mostly favored Hutchison, as she has the most name recognition, and was the only female in the contest. For many voters, Constantine is that guy who came out on top in the pack of guys. It will be interesting to see how the undecided 10% break, and what happens as Constantine gets better name and position recognition.
For now, consider this the score for the first few minutes of the first quarter of the game….
Democrats are going to be a thing of the past only to be read about by future generations in paperback about how not to run a government. I cant believe how fast Obama is going down the tubes. Hutchison will straighten out the incredible mess left behind by the other “magic negro”!
No small part of King COunty’s budget problems are due to the Bush Recession.
SurveyUSA’s earlier polling seriously overestimated Hutchison and underestimated Constantine. I suspect the same result will apply for the general election.
Chairman Dao is seriously beholden to Big Labor of King County. Chairman Dao believes the first principle of the Democrat Party is to serve government and municipal unions. The second principle is to hide the first principle from the voter and taxpayer.
Whereas Candidate Susie believes in hiding everything from the voters.
Whereas Suzie’s first principle is to serve the friends of BIAW and the second to talk about the weather on the campaign stump.
See comment 1.
See why we can’t stand the crowd you run with?
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Dow is fratboy, a fan of football, a guy who gave a standing ovation and uncritical, enthusiastic applause to former Hushy coach on 10/23/09, the date of the unveiling of Owens’ statue.
H. would be a big change; C. is a cog in the machine that’s been running the show too long.
Don’t fear change.
King County Government is a big complicated organization with multiple funding sources, many mandated services and critical responsibilities. Explain to me how someone with no experience at all is a good change. Bomus points if you opposed Darcy Burner because she lacked experience.
So 47% will be Hutchinson’s high water mark.
It will surely be all downhill from here as things progress.
14: “Bonus points if you opposed Darcy Burner because she lacked experience.”
Well-struck. And, of course, extra bonus points if you voted against Obama because he lacked experience.
Expose Hutchison as the vindictive, empty-headed wing-nut that she is and it’s over.
I’m certain this poll gave Steve Beren a chubby that would stretch from Seattle to Everett. He’ll be spending his entire Labor Day weekend in blissful denial.
@16:
Obama was experienced…State Legislature, Senator, etc…
Darcy Burner was very qualified. A Congressional seat is much different than the position of King County Exec. I wouldn’t have a problem with Susan running for Congress.
There are 535 members of Congress, and they serve two year terms. It was INTENDED to be a citizen run body, not a career position.
Senate is a different matter, as there are only two from each state, 100 total, and they serve for six years. A Senator should have legislative experience. It isn’t necessary for a Congressperson, and in my opinion, even desirable.
The King County Government is bigger than the Gov’t of Montana. It’s a big responsibility, and not a place for a neophyte who thinks all that is required is to be “spiritually ready”.
Obama was qualified to be president. Burner was qualified to be a member of Congress. Hutchison is qualified to be a member of Congress.
Susan Hutchison is not qualified, and clearly not prepared to be KCE.
19- I disagree that Hutch is qualified to be a member of congress. Anyone who thinks the earth is 6000 years old is unqualified to wipe their own ass.
A survey taken over three days (Sept 1-3) will have lots of non-response bias. Who didn’t this survey reach? Young people. People with no land lines. People out of the house at night. People with lives. The people the survey did reach? People who spend a lot of time at home watching TV. Those are the people with whom Hutchinson has “name recognition”.
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2010 You tards are toast! I can’t wait.
sarge @ 19
As you know, but it needs repeating, Hutchison was on the board of the Discovery Institute, a well funded “think tank” of flat earthers.
That disqualifies her from public service, and certainly from ever holding public office.
@ 24: Steve Buri is on the Newcastle City Council. I voted for him. I don’t regret that vote. He’s a good Councilor.
It’s going to be an up hill battle for Dow to be the “change” and “reform” candidate when Hutchison has successfully defined him as the status quo. Re: “Chairman Dao” — that name strikes to the heart of Dow’s major liability now: he can’t effectively campaign on his record at the council anymore.
As evidence of how much that’s already stuck, look at Dow’s framing himself as the “shared values candidate.” Progressive values: yes. Something the voters who will provide the margin of victory in this race care about? Simply laughable.
As for exposing Hutchison’s alleged “extreme views,” good luck. Those kinds of efforts may actually damage Dow, and not just because he’d be picking on an attractive female candidate. What’d going negative in the waning day of the mayoral race get Greg? Un-elected. Running to the left might have worked in the primary against other Dems, but it’s a different set of voters who will decide this race now.
Blabbing on about “shared progressive values” is a time suck. So is spending anymore time “exposing” Hutchison. Keep it up, and hand her the election.
lignoski @ 26
Constantine has a record. Voters know exactly what they’re getting.
Hutchison has no record, very questionable judgment (e.g. creationism, rafting while on sick leave), and her platform is pretty thin.
Constantine’s strategy of challenging her to answer questions of substance will show the voters that Hutchison is just a vanity candidate.