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Poll Analysis: Democrats make gains

by Darryl — Monday, 11/7/16, 11:23 pm


Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
39.2% probability
60.8% probability
Mean of 49 seats
Mean of 51 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Saturday’s analysis showed control of the Senate to likely remain in the hands of the Republicans. The Democrats had only a 12.1% probability of taking the Senate. I’ve added about 20 new polls since then. I’ve also shortened the “current poll” window to 10 days (if only to match the Presidential election).

Two days later, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 12,350 times, there were 26,823 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 60,827 times. In other words, Democrats have a 39.2% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 60.8% probability of controlling the Senate.

There has been a few interesting changes.

  • Florida: Democrat Patrick Murphy is trying to oust Sen. Marco Rubio (R). Rubio has held the lead in recent polls, but his margins have shrunk. Rubio’s chances have shrunk from near certainty to a 96% probability. This is still quite good, of course.
    senate07oct16-07nov16florida2

  • Missouri: Democrat Jason Kander is going after Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R) seat. We lose three old polls and gain two new ones for a total of 6 polls. Two are tied; Blunt leads by small margins in three polls. One poll has Kander up by +0.7%. This has shifted the Democrat’s chances from 6.6% to 42.9%.
    senate07oct16-07nov16missouri2

  • Nevada: We have 2 current NV polls in the open seat race between Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and Joe Heck (R). The most recent poll has Cortez Masto up +1%; the other poll has Heck up by +2%. So The Democrat’s chances have risen from 7% to 43%.

    senate07oct16-07nov16nevada1

  • New Hampshire: The state is just close, close, close. Of 7 current polls Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) leads by small margins in four, and Maggie Hassan (D) leads by small margins in three. The analysis suggests Hassan has a 33% chance of taking the seat.

    senate07oct16-07nov16new_hampshire2

  • North Carolina: This is another very close state. The four current polls give two to Sen. Richard Burr (R) and one to Deborah Ross (D); the last one is a tie. Consequently, Burr’s chances of keeping his seat has dropped from 85% to 72%.

    senate07oct16-07nov16north_carolina1

  • Wisconsin: This is the only significant gain for Republicans. Democrat Russ Feingold has been leading Sen. Ron Johnson (R) for the great majority of polls. The three “current” polls have Feingold up, but with smaller margins than the past (+1%, +2%, and +3%). Johnson’s chances have increased from 14% last Saturday to 22% now.

    senate07oct16-07nov16wisconsin1

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

  • 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 39.2%, Republicans control the Senate 60.8%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 49.2 ( 1.1)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 50.8 ( 1.1)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 49 (47, 51)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 51 (49, 53)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

  • Democratic seats w/no election: 35
  • Independent seats w/no election: one
  • Republican seats w/no election: 30
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: nine
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 21
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: three

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 43
Strong Democrat 4 47
Leans Democrat 1 1 48
Weak Democrat 0 0 0 48
Weak Republican 1 1 1 52
Leans Republican 4 4 51
Strong Republican 5 47
Safe Republican 42

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

# Sample % % Dem Rep
State @ polls size Dem Rep % wins % wins
AL 0 0 (0) (100)
AK 1& 320 23.4 76.6 0.0 100.0
AZ 6 4147 43.6 56.4 0.0 100.0
AR 1& 608 38.2 61.8 0.0 100.0
CA 1 552 63.4 36.6 100.0 0.0
CO 3 1681 54.3 45.7 99.3 0.7
CT 1& 872 61.7 38.3 100.0 0.0
FL 4 2739 47.6 52.4 3.7 96.3
GA 3 2008 44.1 55.9 0.0 100.0
HI 0 0 (100) (0)
ID 1& 823 29.5 70.5 0.0 100.0
IL 1 450 60.0 40.0 99.9 0.1
IN 2 884 48.3 51.7 23.6 76.4
IA 3 1804 37.1 62.9 0.0 100.0
KS 1 535 36.4 63.6 0.0 100.0
KY 1& 566 41.5 58.5 0.2 99.8
LA 1& 794 34.6 65.4 0.0 100.0
MD 1& 614 66.6 33.4 100.0 0.0
MO 6 4595 49.0 51.0 17.1 82.9
NV 2 1332 49.6 50.4 42.9 57.1
NH 7 4312 49.5 50.5 32.6 67.4
NY 1 567 72.8 27.2 100.0 0.0
NC 4 2777 49.2 50.8 28.2 71.8
ND 0 0 (0) (100)
OH 3 2342 38.6 61.4 0.0 100.0
OK 0 0 (0) (100)
OR 1& 558 62.7 37.3 100.0 0.0
PA 8 4945 52.4 47.6 99.3 0.7
SC 1& 941 38.4 61.6 0.0 100.0
SD 1& 534 39.3 60.7 0.1 99.9
UT 2 778 28.7 71.3 0.0 100.0
VT 1& 559 69.1 30.9 100.0 0.0
WA 1 641 56.8 43.2 99.2 0.8
WI 3 2778 51.0 49.0 78.1 21.9

@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

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Comments

  1. 1

    Distant Replay spews:

    Tuesday, 11/8/16 at 8:16 am

    A significant surge in Latino vote shaping up. As much as a 50% increase over 2012. That could prove decisive in Florida, Nevada and Colorado.
    #MissHousekeeping

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