 |
 |
Since the previous analysis, ten new polls have been released. Additionally, I fixed the Vermont poll that had Sec. Hillary Clinton’s and Donald Trump’s numbers reversed. As it happens a more current poll for Vermont was released.
Only a couple of the new polls were still in the field this week, but many of them were in the field last week, so lets call this the Post-RNC, Pre-DNC benchmark.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,843 times and Trump wins 2,157 times (including the 223 ties). Clinton received (on average) 312 to Trump’s 226 electoral votes. The results suggest that, in an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.8% probability of winning and Trump would have a 2.2% probability of winning.
Little has changed from the previous analysis. The most noticeable is Florida, which has decreased from a 56% chance for Clinton to a 37% chance. This reflects two older polls “aging out” and one new poll added. Trump leads in two of the three current polls. Here is the polling history, which makes Trump’s lead seem plausible:
The other noticeable change is New Hampshire’s shift from blue to red. An older ARG poll “aged out” and a new NH Journal poll has been added. The NH Journal poll has a surprisingly large +9.4% for Trump. The state has been close, but perhaps something about Trump has strongly resonated with NH voters. The polling history suggests this new poll is an outlier–Trump has not led in any of the previous 26 polls in NH, and suddenly he is up by nearly double digits.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):
- 302 electoral votes with a 2.65% probability
- 313 electoral votes with a 2.57% probability
- 312 electoral votes with a 2.56% probability
- 301 electoral votes with a 2.52% probability
- 318 electoral votes with a 2.47% probability
- 300 electoral votes with a 2.17% probability
- 308 electoral votes with a 2.16% probability
- 295 electoral votes with a 2.13% probability
- 324 electoral votes with a 1.99% probability
- 307 electoral votes with a 1.93% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Clinton wins 97.8%, Trump wins 2.2%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 312.3 (22.5)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 225.7 (22.5)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 312 (271, 357)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 226 (181, 267)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Clinton | 106 | |||
| Strong Clinton | 155 | 261 | ||
| Leans Clinton | 40 | 40 | 301 | |
| Weak Clinton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 301 |
| Weak Trump | 12 | 12 | 12 | 237 |
| Leans Trump | 51 | 51 | 225 | |
| Strong Trump | 108 | 174 | ||
| Safe Trump | 66 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 1 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Clinton | Trump | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 8 | Votes | polls | Votes | Clinton | Trump | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1 | 3690 | 36.7 | 63.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 1* | 435 | 37.5 | 62.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AZ | 11 | 3* | 1772 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 48.9 | 51.1 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 623 | 43.3 | 56.7 | 0.9 | 99.1 | ||
| CA | 55 | 1 | 803 | 60.5 | 39.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 6 | 3601 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 99.7 | 0.3 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1* | 1024 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 92.9 | 7.1 | ||
| DE | 3 | 1 | 529 | 56.7 | 43.3 | 98.5 | 1.5 | ||
| DC | 3 | 1* | 1131 | 76.5 | 23.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| FL | 29 | 3 | 2116 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 37.2 | 62.8 | ||
| GA | 16 | 1 | 450 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 36.7 | 63.3 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 801 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 1 | 402 | 34.3 | 65.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IL | 20 | 2 | 1654 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 1* | 1779 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| IA | 6 | 5 | 3286 | 48.1 | 51.9 | 6.9 | 93.1 | ||
| KS | 6 | 2 | 848 | 41.2 | 58.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1* | 1825 | 41.4 | 58.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1* | 1285 | 39.4 | 60.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| ME | 2 | 1* | 366 | 54.6 | 45.4 | 90.0 | 9.9 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 1* | 201 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 96.7 | 3.3 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 1* | 162 | 49.4 | 50.6 | 44.9 | 55.1 | ||
| MD | 10 | 2* | 2657 | 65.2 | 34.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 2* | 2086 | 62.1 | 37.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 4 | 3310 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 99.7 | 0.3 | ||
| MN | 10 | 1* | 1139 | 56.1 | 43.9 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| MS | 6 | 2* | 1783 | 42.3 | 57.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MO | 10 | 3 | 2928 | 45.2 | 54.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MT | 3 | 1* | 1153 | 44.1 | 55.9 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1* | 1093 | 42.5 | 57.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE2 | 1 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE3 | 1 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NV | 6 | 2 | 958 | 49.0 | 51.0 | 32.5 | 67.6 | ||
| NH | 4 | 2 | 1356 | 45.9 | 54.1 | 1.8 | 98.2 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 2* | 568 | 60.4 | 39.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1* | 774 | 51.8 | 48.2 | 75.6 | 24.4 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1 | 861 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| NC | 15 | 2 | 1558 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 91.0 | 9.0 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1* | 1226 | 44.6 | 55.4 | 0.5 | 99.5 | ||
| OH | 18 | 5 | 3817 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 71.4 | 28.6 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1* | 873 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1 | 580 | 52.1 | 47.9 | 75.9 | 24.1 | ||
| PA | 20 | 3 | 1886 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 92.2 | 7.8 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1* | 886 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| SC | 9 | 1* | 1380 | 44.2 | 55.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| SD | 3 | 1* | 657 | 40.9 | 59.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| TN | 11 | 1* | 2191 | 40.5 | 59.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| TX | 38 | 1* | 852 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 2.3 | 97.7 | ||
| UT | 6 | 3* | 2090 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 5.8 | 94.2 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1 | 356 | 69.7 | 30.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 3 | 1723 | 52.5 | 47.5 | 93.8 | 6.2 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1* | 584 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 99.0 | 1.0 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 1187 | 33.4 | 66.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| WI | 10 | 1 | 536 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 78.4 | 21.6 | ||
| WY | 3 | 1* | 690 | 29.6 | 70.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
