Poll analyses: Rasmussen poll has Murray leading Rossi

As I briefly mentioned earlier today, we got a new Rasmussen Poll in the race between Sen. Patty Murray (D) and Dino Rossi (R). The poll shows Murray leading Rossi 51% to 46%. The poll surveyed 750 likely voters on the 14th of September.

With this new poll, we have now had seven polls taken (and released to the public) over the past month:

StartEnd%%%
PolldatedateSizeMOEDRDiff
Rasmussen14-Sep14-Sep7504.0 51 46D+5.0
CNN Time OR10-Sep14-Sep9063.0 53 44D+9.0
Elway09-Sep12-Sep5004.5 50 41D+9.0
Rasmussen31-Aug31-Aug7504.0 46 48R+2.0
DSCC28-Aug31-Aug968 50 45D+5.0
SurveyUSA18-Aug19-Aug6184.0 45 52R+7.0
Rasmussen18-Aug18-Aug7504.0 48 44D+4.0

In what follows, I’ll ignore the DSCC poll. Not that I have any reason to doubt the poll. Rather, the poll was specifically released because the results favored Murray, thus clearly violating a statistical assumption used for the analysis.

Murray leads in four of the remaining six polls. As usual, I’ll begin with a Monte Carlo simulation analysis of the most recent poll (FAQ). Taking just the new Rasmussen polls there were 728 respondents who went for Murray or Rossi. Following a million simulated elections, Murray tallies 835,577 wins to Rossi’s 158,253 wins.

The evidence offered by this most recent poll suggests that Murray would have an 84.1% chance of beating Rossi if an election had occurred two days ago. Here is the distribution of outcomes from the simulated elections:

16SeptRasmussen

With three polls released over three days, we might as well combine all of ‘em. Of the total of 2,156 individuals sampled, 2,061 go for Rossi or Murray. Murray gets 51.6% and Rossi gets 44.0% of the “votes.” The simulation analysis gives Murray 994,327 wins to Rossi’s 5,404 wins.

Thus, these three polls offer evidence that Murray would have a 99.5% chance of beating Rossi in an election held over that past week.

Rossi does a little better if we combine the last month of polls (all but the DSCC poll in the table). Now we end up with a sample of 4,274 respondents, of which 4056 are for Murray or Rossi. The raw percentages are 49.0% Murray and 45.9% Rossi. The Monte Carlo analysis gives Murray 933,103 wins to Rossi’s 65,250 wins.

If the past month of polling is representative of Washington state voters, the evidence suggests that Murray would win an election held now with a 93.5% probability.

Going back a month or two things did not look nearly so rosy for Murray. This is clear from a graph of the polling in this race:

Senate16Aug10-16Sep10Washington1

See that dip that occurs over the summer? When the early September Rasmussen poll came out showing Rossi leading Murray 48% to 46%, I offered a theory:

There is another reason I am not (yet) too concerned. August 31 is still in the “dog days of summer” around here. In my many years of following polling in Washington state, I’ve learned that Washingtonians become very negative in the summer, only to perk right back up in the fall. I can’t really explain it…I’ve just observed it in approval numbers. Murray probably gets the worst of if from the summer malaise. That is, Murray doesn’t really have to worry about close results like these for another month….

I’m such a pessimist…it only took a couple of weeks.

(Cross posted at Hominid Views.)

Comments

  1. 2

    manoftruth spews:

    wasn’t it robert gibbs that said polls are inaccurate and shouldn’t be paid attention to when it showed obama’s poll numbers in the gutter?

  2. 3

    slingshot spews:

    There’s a political infinity until November 2nd. But things sure have turned around a fair piece in a couple week’s time.

  3. 7

    Puddybud identifies zotz as another arschloch and as a dumb brick spews:

    Didn’t 32 DUMMOCRAPTS write Odumba a letter not to exterminate any of the Bush tax cuts? Seems there is a civil war in DUMMOCRAPT circles! Yet the slobbering media repeats whatever Tim Caine and Robert Fibbs tells them to say.

  4. 8

    ld spews:

    5. The Debt is lower, really now, it’s 1,469 Trillion!

    09/01/2010 13,426,803,373,412.02
    09/02/2010 13,442,057,367,029.28
    09/03/2010 13,435,343,171,187.87
    09/07/2010 13,438,770,879,030.74
    09/08/2010 13,435,355,520,330.43
    09/09/2010 13,444,496,046,138.49
    09/10/2010 13,441,762,397,157.23
    09/13/2010 13,443,442,988,893.40
    09/14/2010 13,440,225,498,627.42
    09/15/2010 13,498,026,949,136.56

    Please show me the freefall? And the current administration has been afraid to spend any more trillions before the election.

  5. 10

    Don Joe spews:

    @4

    Another day, more debt, fewer jobs

    Which would mean that the Bush tax cuts for the super wealthy aren’t working as advertised, and that you are against extending those tax cuts beyond this year, right?

  6. 11

    ld spews:

    No it would mean that the 800 Billion Bailout, and Nafta, and government growth, not to mention the lies on the Healthcare bill savings are all BS.

  7. 13

    Don Joe spews:

    @ 11

    No it would mean that the 800 Billion Bailout, and Nafta, and government growth, not to mention the lies on the Healthcare bill savings are all BS.

    So, you’re saying that none of those things are working, but, somehow, the Bush tax cuts are? Elaborate, please.

  8. 15

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Murray will be linked to lockstep with unpopular ImamObaMao, Reid & Pelosi. She will have to answer for her actual VOTES! Murray needed sideshows from the past and lots of $$ on related commercials. In the end, voters will look at her failed ACTIONS and that Rossi would have VOTED differently.
    Take a look at the unpopularity of the Democrat Party Leader…ImamObaMao.
    Even his wife, MOOCH-elle, has dropped due to saying he HATES her job and has spent taxpayer money at an alarming rate on self-engrandizing vacations to Spain, Martha’s Vineyard etc.

    Friday, September 17, 2010

    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 27% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-five percent (45%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -18.

    Last week, the president declared that “the policies that we have put in place have moved us in the right direction.” Most in the Political Class agree, but most Mainstream Voters do not.

  9. 16

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Since you are quoting Rasmussen Senate Polls Darryl, how about this one today?

    Friday, September 17, 2010

    After a decisive win in Tuesday’s Republican Primary, businessman Ron Johnson now holds a seven-point lead over incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold in Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race.

    The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Johnson picking up 51% support, while Feingold earns the vote from 44%.

  10. 17

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Murray will have to answer for BS like this!
    Published in the leftist LA TIMES even.

    L.A.: $111M in Stimulus Saved Just 55 Jobs
    By William Lajeunesse

    A stimulus project roadsign is posted on Sunset Blvd. in West Hollywood, Calif.
    More than a year after Congress approved $800 billion in stimulus funds, the Los Angeles city controller has released a 40-page report on how the city spent its share, and the results are not living up to expectations.

    “I’m disappointed that we’ve only created or retained 55 jobs after receiving $111 million,” said Wendy Greuel, the city’s controller. “With our local unemployment rate over 12 percent we need to do a better job cutting red tape and putting Angelenos back to work.”

    $2 MILLION per job. How effective.

  11. 18

    rhp6033 spews:

    11. ld spews:

    No it would mean that the 800 Billion Bailout, and Nafta, and government growth, not to mention the lies on the Healthcare bill savings are all BS.

    Hmmm, so many lies and distortions, so little time to address them all completely….

    “the 800 Billion Bailout…”

    You mean the $1 trillion wall street bailout plan by Republican president George W. Bush???

    “…and NAFTA…”

    NAFTA went into effect in 1994, by the Clinton administration. And yet Clinton managed to leave Bush a balanced budget as of January 2001.

    “…and government growth…”

    Do we really have to get into a discussion on the growth of federal spending under the Bush administration?????

    “…the lies on the Healthcare bill savings…”

    You mean the act where almost all of it’s provisions have not yet gone into effect, and could have no impact on the federal budget/debt yet?

  12. 19

    rhp6033 spews:

    Cynical @ 15: Since you have spent the last six months celebrating (in advance) Rossi’s inevitable defeat of Murray in the Senate campaign, what can we expect from you when Rossi loses? Will you bow your head in shame, and depart from this forum?

  13. 20

    Crusader spews:

    All I can say is WA voters are the stupidest in the nation, up there with CA voters.

  14. 21

    Don Joe spews:

    @18

    Note, also, that the Republican solution, extending the Bush tax cuts for the super wealthy, was so effective that, when it was the only stimulus in effect, we lost several hundred thousand jobs a month.

    One wonders if people like Cynical understand the concept of division involving negative numbers.

  15. 22

    spews:

    All I can say is WA voters are the stupidest in the nation, up there with CA voters.

    Pfftt.. 100 millions dollars doesn’t buy as many votes as it used to…

    Time to scare up another tax cut!

  16. 24

    Daddy Love spews:

    It’s funny to watch Cynical spinning in here, spitting and snarling and slinging his cut-and-pastes madly in a effort to keep from confronting the fact that his angel Rasmussen shows Patty Murray up over Dino Rossi by 5 percentage points. I am sure that he is unable to admit it to himself.

  17. 25

    Daddy Love spews:

    Cynical has stooped to telling us now that Patty Murray WILL BE HELD TO ACCOUNT for how the city of Los Angeles spends its money.

  18. 26

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Daddy Love–
    Murray voted for the Bill and all it’s details.
    Bottom-line.
    And she is too stupid (dumbest Senator or 2nd Dumbest year after year) to understand part of her responsibility is to make certain that the authorized money is spent wisely…and to be held accountable for her vote when money is pissed away like this.

  19. 27

    Rujax! spews:

    Patty Murray does the job for the State of Washington and the voters know it.

    Dino Rossi is a sleazy craphead and the voters know that too.

    Keep yakkin’ Cyniklown, you dumbass sore loser fuck, one by one your little princes and princesses will ensure a Democratic Conressional and Senatorial majority for a couple of decades.

    Oh…and tell Prissy Christy and the Huckapoo to keep talking will ya. It’s sooooooo entertaining.

  20. 28

    Don Joe spews:

    @ 27

    Anyone who thinks that Patty Murray is dumber than James Inhofe is, himself, a complete idiot. Notice, for example, Cynical’s complete inability to justify the Republican “solution” to the current economic slump. Oh, he’ll tell us what congress will do, but he’ll completely founder when it comes to explaining precisely how his prescription will work.

  21. 29

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Don Joe–
    Do you really think raising taxes, making government bigger and pissing away $$ on a pretend stimulus package adding to the accelerating National Debt is the answer?
    Most sane folks with a smidgeon of economic acumen know that doesn’t work.
    Tea Partiers want smaller, less intrusive government. ImamObaMao and his lackeys want bigger and more intrusive.

  22. 30

    Don Joe spews:

    @ 29

    Do you really think raising taxes, making government bigger and pissing away $$ on a pretend stimulus package adding to the accelerating National Debt is the answer?

    No. I think that you’ve just written a completely incoherent sentence, which pretty much describes Republican economic policies: completely incoherent.

    Here’s Bruce Bartlett discussing the Bush tax cuts:

    The truth is that there is virtually no evidence in support of the Bush tax cuts as an economic elixir. To the extent that they had any positive effect on growth, it was very, very modest. Their main effect was simply to reduce the government’s revenue, thereby increasing the budget deficit, which all Republicans claim to abhor.

    It’s worth remembering where the Bush tax cuts came from in the first place. In 1999, in the midst of one of the biggest economic booms in American history, then Texas Gov. Bush convened a group of Republican economists to draft a tax plan for him. Contrary to Ronald Reagan’s 1981 tax cut, which was a simple across-the-board marginal tax rate reduction, the Bush plan was a hodge-podge of tax gimmicks designed more to win the support of various voting blocs than stimulate growth.

    Bruce Bartlett, in case you are unaware, is the guy who, literally, wrote the book on Reaganomics.

    ImamObaMao and his lackeys want bigger and more intrusive.

    Well, that certainly explains why the current level of taxation is the lowest it’s been in 50 years, or why President Obama pushed for, and signed into law, the largest middle class tax cut in our nation’s history.

    Oh, and if the spending in the ARRA was so “useless,” then why did so man Republicans take credit for it when those funds were spent back in their districts?

    As you amply demonstrate, when the Tea Party folks talk about being “Taxed Enough Already,” they’re clearly talking about their brains and not their wallets.

  23. 31

    Matthew spews:

    If the libtards in King County elect Murray again. WA gets what it deserves. BTW those of you that say the Bush Tax cuts sdidn’t work well that is because you can’t cut taxes and increase spending like Obama did and expect good things to happen. FOr tax cuts to work you need to also stop spending. Alos to whowever said Clinton left a balanced budget, well that happened with a republican congress. Remember 1994 when the republicans took control of congress. Bill Clinton signed NAFTA the bill that allowed jobs to go overseas. Please wake up fellow washingtonians and vote out Murray.

  24. 33

    Michael spews:

    @32

    It’s a standard and silly practice. The challenger challenges the incumbent to way more debates than he or she could possibly agree to and when the incumbent wont do it the challenger trumpets that the incumbent is afraid to run on their record. Both sides do it. It’s dumb.

  25. 34

    Michael spews:

    @31

    If the libtards in King County elect Murray again

    Last time around it was the “libtards” in:
    Clallam, Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, Island, Jefferson, King, Kitsap, Mason, Pacific, Pierce, San Juan, Skagit, Skamania, Snohomish, Thurston, Wahkiakum, & Whatcom, counties that elected Patty Murray.

    Murray only lost Spokane County, where George Nethercutt lived by 3%. :->

  26. 36

    Michael spews:

    @31

    Clinton signed NAFTA the bill that allowed jobs to go overseas.

    Um… There are no seas between the US, Canada, & Mexico.

    BTW those of you that say the Bush Tax cuts sdidn’t work well that is because you can’t cut taxes and increase spending like Obama did

    Bush cut taxes and increased spending.

  27. 37

    Don Joe spews:

    @ 31

    BTW those of you that say the Bush Tax cuts sdidn’t work well that is because you can’t cut taxes and increase spending like Obama did and expect good things to happen. FOr tax cuts to work you need to also stop spending.

    You get half credit. Whether or not a tax cut “works” depends entirely on what you want the tax cut to accomplish.

    Economically, a tax cut for the wealthy increases savings, which, in turn, increases investment, but that is only true if the government also cuts spending. If the government doesn’t cut spending, then the government will borrow an amount equal to the tax cut, which yields a net decrease in aggregate savings.

    A tax cut for middle income people, however, is far more likely to increase consumption, which, in turn, causes aggregate income to increase. At that point, the effect of the increase in the government deficit is no different than the effect of you or I borrowing money to buy a house or a car.

    Bill Clinton signed NAFTA the bill that allowed jobs to go overseas.

    Again, you only get half credit. Bill Clinton did, indeed, sign NAFTA into law, but that’s not the primary cause for outsourcing. Rather, the primary incentive for outsourcing is the way current tax laws treat “unrepatriated earnings” of US corporations. NAFTA had nothing to do with those tax laws.

    Please, if you’re going to toss around words like “libtard,” then it would behove you to be far better informed of some basic Economic facts.

  28. 38

    Politically Incorrect spews:

    Rossi or Murray – WTF diff does it make? They’re just from different wings of the Big Government Party.

    If you REALLY want change, stop voting for Dems and Reps.