As I briefly mentioned earlier today, we got a new Rasmussen Poll in the race between Sen. Patty Murray (D) and Dino Rossi (R). The poll shows Murray leading Rossi 51% to 46%. The poll surveyed 750 likely voters on the 14th of September.
With this new poll, we have now had seven polls taken (and released to the public) over the past month:
| Start | End | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | date | date | Size | MOE | D | R | Diff |
| Rasmussen | 14-Sep | 14-Sep | 750 | 4.0 | 51 | 46 | D+5.0 |
| CNN Time OR | 10-Sep | 14-Sep | 906 | 3.0 | 53 | 44 | D+9.0 |
| Elway | 09-Sep | 12-Sep | 500 | 4.5 | 50 | 41 | D+9.0 |
| Rasmussen | 31-Aug | 31-Aug | 750 | 4.0 | 46 | 48 | R+2.0 |
| DSCC | 28-Aug | 31-Aug | 968 | — | 50 | 45 | D+5.0 |
| SurveyUSA | 18-Aug | 19-Aug | 618 | 4.0 | 45 | 52 | R+7.0 |
| Rasmussen | 18-Aug | 18-Aug | 750 | 4.0 | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
In what follows, I’ll ignore the DSCC poll. Not that I have any reason to doubt the poll. Rather, the poll was specifically released because the results favored Murray, thus clearly violating a statistical assumption used for the analysis.
Murray leads in four of the remaining six polls. As usual, I’ll begin with a Monte Carlo simulation analysis of the most recent poll (FAQ). Taking just the new Rasmussen polls there were 728 respondents who went for Murray or Rossi. Following a million simulated elections, Murray tallies 835,577 wins to Rossi’s 158,253 wins.
The evidence offered by this most recent poll suggests that Murray would have an 84.1% chance of beating Rossi if an election had occurred two days ago. Here is the distribution of outcomes from the simulated elections:
With three polls released over three days, we might as well combine all of ’em. Of the total of 2,156 individuals sampled, 2,061 go for Rossi or Murray. Murray gets 51.6% and Rossi gets 44.0% of the “votes.” The simulation analysis gives Murray 994,327 wins to Rossi’s 5,404 wins.
Thus, these three polls offer evidence that Murray would have a 99.5% chance of beating Rossi in an election held over that past week.
Rossi does a little better if we combine the last month of polls (all but the DSCC poll in the table). Now we end up with a sample of 4,274 respondents, of which 4056 are for Murray or Rossi. The raw percentages are 49.0% Murray and 45.9% Rossi. The Monte Carlo analysis gives Murray 933,103 wins to Rossi’s 65,250 wins.
If the past month of polling is representative of Washington state voters, the evidence suggests that Murray would win an election held now with a 93.5% probability.
Going back a month or two things did not look nearly so rosy for Murray. This is clear from a graph of the polling in this race:
See that dip that occurs over the summer? When the early September Rasmussen poll came out showing Rossi leading Murray 48% to 46%, I offered a theory:
There is another reason I am not (yet) too concerned. August 31 is still in the “dog days of summer” around here. In my many years of following polling in Washington state, I’ve learned that Washingtonians become very negative in the summer, only to perk right back up in the fall. I can’t really explain it…I’ve just observed it in approval numbers. Murray probably gets the worst of if from the summer malaise. That is, Murray doesn’t really have to worry about close results like these for another month….
I’m such a pessimist…it only took a couple of weeks.
(Cross posted at Hominid Views.)
Heh.. Nice news from Scotty R.
Keep Dino perennial..
I’m sending my ballot in the day I get it!
wasn’t it robert gibbs that said polls are inaccurate and shouldn’t be paid attention to when it showed obama’s poll numbers in the gutter?
There’s a political infinity until November 2nd. But things sure have turned around a fair piece in a couple week’s time.
Another day, more debt, fewer jobs,
@4
Perhaps you missed the news that the deficit (debt) is LOWER? Sucks to have only one meme and even worse when it’s wrong.
Here it is from a bunch of sources…
http://www.reuters.com/article.....2220100413
http://www.xe.com/news/2010-04.....072565.htm
http://www.marketwatch.com/sto.....2010-08-19
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/.....venue.html
5:
Dude, what do you expect from a bunch of criminals leading zombies?
Didn’t 32 DUMMOCRAPTS write Odumba a letter not to exterminate any of the Bush tax cuts? Seems there is a civil war in DUMMOCRAPT circles! Yet the slobbering media repeats whatever Tim Caine and Robert Fibbs tells them to say.
5. The Debt is lower, really now, it’s 1,469 Trillion!
09/01/2010 13,426,803,373,412.02
09/02/2010 13,442,057,367,029.28
09/03/2010 13,435,343,171,187.87
09/07/2010 13,438,770,879,030.74
09/08/2010 13,435,355,520,330.43
09/09/2010 13,444,496,046,138.49
09/10/2010 13,441,762,397,157.23
09/13/2010 13,443,442,988,893.40
09/14/2010 13,440,225,498,627.42
09/15/2010 13,498,026,949,136.56
Please show me the freefall? And the current administration has been afraid to spend any more trillions before the election.
With a Budget deficit I might add that is now growing past 1.4 Trillion just this year
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
@4
Another day, more debt, fewer jobs
Which would mean that the Bush tax cuts for the super wealthy aren’t working as advertised, and that you are against extending those tax cuts beyond this year, right?
No it would mean that the 800 Billion Bailout, and Nafta, and government growth, not to mention the lies on the Healthcare bill savings are all BS.
It’s the Spending, Stupid
A chronic voter ‘concern’ has now exploded into a broad public movement.
http://online.wsj.com/article/.....on_LEADTop
@ 11
No it would mean that the 800 Billion Bailout, and Nafta, and government growth, not to mention the lies on the Healthcare bill savings are all BS.
So, you’re saying that none of those things are working, but, somehow, the Bush tax cuts are? Elaborate, please.
By the way, meet the folks who benefit from those tax cuts for the super wealthy. That’s right, the same folks who drove this economy off the cliff in the first place.
Murray will be linked to lockstep with unpopular ImamObaMao, Reid & Pelosi. She will have to answer for her actual VOTES! Murray needed sideshows from the past and lots of $$ on related commercials. In the end, voters will look at her failed ACTIONS and that Rossi would have VOTED differently.
Take a look at the unpopularity of the Democrat Party Leader…ImamObaMao.
Even his wife, MOOCH-elle, has dropped due to saying he HATES her job and has spent taxpayer money at an alarming rate on self-engrandizing vacations to Spain, Martha’s Vineyard etc.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Since you are quoting Rasmussen Senate Polls Darryl, how about this one today?
Friday, September 17, 2010
Murray will have to answer for BS like this!
Published in the leftist LA TIMES even.
L.A.: $111M in Stimulus Saved Just 55 Jobs
By William Lajeunesse
$2 MILLION per job. How effective.
Hmmm, so many lies and distortions, so little time to address them all completely….
“the 800 Billion Bailout…”
You mean the $1 trillion wall street bailout plan by Republican president George W. Bush???
“…and NAFTA…”
NAFTA went into effect in 1994, by the Clinton administration. And yet Clinton managed to leave Bush a balanced budget as of January 2001.
“…and government growth…”
Do we really have to get into a discussion on the growth of federal spending under the Bush administration?????
“…the lies on the Healthcare bill savings…”
You mean the act where almost all of it’s provisions have not yet gone into effect, and could have no impact on the federal budget/debt yet?
Cynical @ 15: Since you have spent the last six months celebrating (in advance) Rossi’s inevitable defeat of Murray in the Senate campaign, what can we expect from you when Rossi loses? Will you bow your head in shame, and depart from this forum?
All I can say is WA voters are the stupidest in the nation, up there with CA voters.
@18
Note, also, that the Republican solution, extending the Bush tax cuts for the super wealthy, was so effective that, when it was the only stimulus in effect, we lost several hundred thousand jobs a month.
One wonders if people like Cynical understand the concept of division involving negative numbers.
Pfftt.. 100 millions dollars doesn’t buy as many votes as it used to…
Time to scare up another tax cut!
What a fuck you are Cyniklown. Just a sore loser dumbass fuck.
It’s funny to watch Cynical spinning in here, spitting and snarling and slinging his cut-and-pastes madly in a effort to keep from confronting the fact that his angel Rasmussen shows Patty Murray up over Dino Rossi by 5 percentage points. I am sure that he is unable to admit it to himself.
Cynical has stooped to telling us now that Patty Murray WILL BE HELD TO ACCOUNT for how the city of Los Angeles spends its money.
Daddy Love–
Murray voted for the Bill and all it’s details.
Bottom-line.
And she is too stupid (dumbest Senator or 2nd Dumbest year after year) to understand part of her responsibility is to make certain that the authorized money is spent wisely…and to be held accountable for her vote when money is pissed away like this.
Patty Murray does the job for the State of Washington and the voters know it.
Dino Rossi is a sleazy craphead and the voters know that too.
Keep yakkin’ Cyniklown, you dumbass sore loser fuck, one by one your little princes and princesses will ensure a Democratic Conressional and Senatorial majority for a couple of decades.
Oh…and tell Prissy Christy and the Huckapoo to keep talking will ya. It’s sooooooo entertaining.
@ 27
Anyone who thinks that Patty Murray is dumber than James Inhofe is, himself, a complete idiot. Notice, for example, Cynical’s complete inability to justify the Republican “solution” to the current economic slump. Oh, he’ll tell us what congress will do, but he’ll completely founder when it comes to explaining precisely how his prescription will work.
Don Joe–
Do you really think raising taxes, making government bigger and pissing away $$ on a pretend stimulus package adding to the accelerating National Debt is the answer?
Most sane folks with a smidgeon of economic acumen know that doesn’t work.
Tea Partiers want smaller, less intrusive government. ImamObaMao and his lackeys want bigger and more intrusive.
@ 29
Do you really think raising taxes, making government bigger and pissing away $$ on a pretend stimulus package adding to the accelerating National Debt is the answer?
No. I think that you’ve just written a completely incoherent sentence, which pretty much describes Republican economic policies: completely incoherent.
Here’s Bruce Bartlett discussing the Bush tax cuts:
Bruce Bartlett, in case you are unaware, is the guy who, literally, wrote the book on Reaganomics.
ImamObaMao and his lackeys want bigger and more intrusive.
Well, that certainly explains why the current level of taxation is the lowest it’s been in 50 years, or why President Obama pushed for, and signed into law, the largest middle class tax cut in our nation’s history.
Oh, and if the spending in the ARRA was so “useless,” then why did so man Republicans take credit for it when those funds were spent back in their districts?
As you amply demonstrate, when the Tea Party folks talk about being “Taxed Enough Already,” they’re clearly talking about their brains and not their wallets.
If the libtards in King County elect Murray again. WA gets what it deserves. BTW those of you that say the Bush Tax cuts sdidn’t work well that is because you can’t cut taxes and increase spending like Obama did and expect good things to happen. FOr tax cuts to work you need to also stop spending. Alos to whowever said Clinton left a balanced budget, well that happened with a republican congress. Remember 1994 when the republicans took control of congress. Bill Clinton signed NAFTA the bill that allowed jobs to go overseas. Please wake up fellow washingtonians and vote out Murray.
Why won’t Murray accept debate invites? Because she will get crushed for her voting record that is why. http://www.redstate.com/bryanm.....-debating/
@32
It’s a standard and silly practice. The challenger challenges the incumbent to way more debates than he or she could possibly agree to and when the incumbent wont do it the challenger trumpets that the incumbent is afraid to run on their record. Both sides do it. It’s dumb.
@31
Last time around it was the “libtards” in:
Clallam, Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, Island, Jefferson, King, Kitsap, Mason, Pacific, Pierce, San Juan, Skagit, Skamania, Snohomish, Thurston, Wahkiakum, & Whatcom, counties that elected Patty Murray.
Murray only lost Spokane County, where George Nethercutt lived by 3%. :->
@32
You might try getting your news from an actual news source.
@31
Um… There are no seas between the US, Canada, & Mexico.
Bush cut taxes and increased spending.
@ 31
BTW those of you that say the Bush Tax cuts sdidn’t work well that is because you can’t cut taxes and increase spending like Obama did and expect good things to happen. FOr tax cuts to work you need to also stop spending.
You get half credit. Whether or not a tax cut “works” depends entirely on what you want the tax cut to accomplish.
Economically, a tax cut for the wealthy increases savings, which, in turn, increases investment, but that is only true if the government also cuts spending. If the government doesn’t cut spending, then the government will borrow an amount equal to the tax cut, which yields a net decrease in aggregate savings.
A tax cut for middle income people, however, is far more likely to increase consumption, which, in turn, causes aggregate income to increase. At that point, the effect of the increase in the government deficit is no different than the effect of you or I borrowing money to buy a house or a car.
Bill Clinton signed NAFTA the bill that allowed jobs to go overseas.
Again, you only get half credit. Bill Clinton did, indeed, sign NAFTA into law, but that’s not the primary cause for outsourcing. Rather, the primary incentive for outsourcing is the way current tax laws treat “unrepatriated earnings” of US corporations. NAFTA had nothing to do with those tax laws.
Please, if you’re going to toss around words like “libtard,” then it would behove you to be far better informed of some basic Economic facts.
Rossi or Murray – WTF diff does it make? They’re just from different wings of the Big Government Party.
If you REALLY want change, stop voting for Dems and Reps.