HorsesAss.Org

Hey… I finally posted again over at Huffington. Hmm… wonder what was on my mind today?

Betcha this is a picture we see over and over again in campaign literature come November. Democratic campaign literature that is.

“Everything I know tells me we need to change course… I am going to defeat Dave Reichert because he will never stop George Bush. But together, we will.”
— Darcy Burner, Westlake Center rally, 6/16/2006

Are you a Safeco shareholder? Are you pissed off by the $17 million golden parachute Safeco gave Mike McGavick after he announced his resignation? If you’re both, send me an email.

President Bush is coming to Seattle today to raise a stunning $800,000 for Rep. Dave Reichert, and I urge all of you to join a rally 11:30 AM at Westlake Center (400 Pine St., Seattle) to send a message to Bush that his failed policies and his rubber-stamp Congress are not welcome in Washington State!

Democratic challenger Darcy Burner will be there to fire up the crowd, along with a host of other local elected officials. Please show your support.

Sen. Maria Cantwell gave a 15-minute address on the floor of the US Senate yesterday, which the Seattle P-I describes as “largely a restatement of her earlier positions.” That’s mostly true, though I’m guessing most of her critics on the angry left would prefer a pithy statement of values, rather than the wordy policy speech she gave.

I urge you to read the full text of Sen. Cantwell’s speech for yourself, but the P-I article did include some very savvy expert analysis:

Much of the critical conversation about Cantwell’s Iraq stance has been conducted on the Internet. The creator of a prominent political blog in Washington state, David Goldstein, said he doubts Cantwell’s comments Wednesday would change many minds.

“Many on the left in Washington state have latched on to Senator Cantwell as the local symbol of this war, and I’m not sure if anything could dissuade them of that notion,” Goldstein, who runs the blog HorsesAss.org (www.horsesass.org), said in an e-mail.

“Instead, what we get are reasonable speeches like this in which she lays out a very pragmatic, if emotionally unsatisfying, approach,” Goldstein wrote. “While she does not explicitly say so, I read this speech as setting a goal of being ready to substantially withdraw within 18 months, and considering the security concerns, again, that seems rather pragmatic and even optimistic. But again, that won’t come anywhere near satisfying those who are demanding an immediate withdrawal.”

Man… that Goldstein guy really knows what he’s talking about.

Now before anybody jumps down my throat I want to reiterate that I do not believe we should have invaded Iraq, and I do not mean to be dismissive towards those who call for an “immediate” withdrawal. There is a legitimate debate to be had as to whether our military presence in Iraq causes more problems than it solves, and whether our objectives (assuming we have any) are desirable or achievable.

But to those who attack Sen. Cantwell for being pro-war or for having no plan to withdraw, I have to say that this simply is not true. Sen. Cantwell is clearly not for immediate withdrawal; she’s for making the best of a very bad situation by attempting to stabilize the Iraqi government, build its security forces, and internationalize the intervention so as to permit the US to largely reduce its military presence over the course of the next year and a half or so.

Whether this is possible or not, I do not know, but it is grounds for a reasonable debate. Unfortunately, the sense that I get from some people in my own party — people I largely agree with on many issues — is that they do not want a debate. They want Sen. Cantwell to apologize for her vote, to aggressively criticize the Bush administration, and to call for an immediate withdrawal. I understand this, but well… life is full of disappointments.

Anyway, I urge Sen. Cantwell’s critics to hold their fire for a moment, read her speech, and then come back and tell me what exactly is so unreasonable or immoral about her approach to what is a very difficult problem. (I mean, apart from her failure to criticize the Bush administration for its stunning dishonesty and incompetence, which would have been satisfying, but not particularly productive.)

Hey… why’d they feed Slog the scoop? Oh, never mind, for the point is Darcy Burner has some poll numbers and it doesn’t look so good for Dave Reichert.

Reichert’s job performance rating stands at a paltry 39 percent, while his reelect numbers have wobbled down to 33 percent. And he does even worse with independents.

And if you Reichert supporters want to comfort yourselves by dismissing this as the distortion of a Democratic pollster, have at it, but you won’t be in very good company. A few weeks ago a local GOP insider confided that he’d be surprised if Reichert’s reelects were much above the mid-thirties, and Burner’s poll merely confirms his intuition.

One thing you’ll notice missing from the polling information posted on Slog is the result of a direct head-to-head. I suspect that would likely show Reichert with a lead, but it’s too early in the campaign for such a comparison to be meaningful. Burner has dramatically raised her name ID from 18 percent to 46 percent without the benefit of any paid media, but that’s still too low to get a solid read on where she stands with voters compared to Reichert.

So all in all this is good news for Burner, if not surprising. Reichert is vulnerable and Burner is surging. The 8th Congressional District is in play.

Is the “mainstream” media ignoring Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s expose on vote fraud and suppression in Ohio? Well, as far as local political writers go, you can’t get much more mainstream than the Seattle P-I’s Joel Connelly. (And I mean that in a good way, Joel.)

When President Bush touches down in Seattle tomorrow to headline a high-donor fundraiser for Rep. Dave Reichert, it will mark a historic first for both the President and his uber-political advisor Karl Rove: Democratic challenger Darcy Burner now has the honor of being the first “Netroots endorsed” candidate to be targeted with a presidential visit.

Don’t underestimate the significance of this event. Rove is nothing if not clever (well… maybe “evil”,) and he knows a political danger when he sees it. In the past the Netroots have focused on supporting progressive underdogs, campaigns where our financial and media resources could have the most relative impact. But Burner is different. Burner has the opportunity to give the Netroots our biggest victory to date. Burner is in a strong position to win.

But no candidate can be expected to compete in a media intensive market like the 8th CD while being dramatically outspent by their opponent, and Bush’s visit tomorrow is intended to be a financial sledgehammer that Rove can use to smash the Burner campaign and the Netroots strategy. We can’t let that happen.

Burner just posted a “diary” to Daily Kos, and I urge all my readers with active DKos accounts to go there and recommend it NOW. We need to get her struggle out in front of the national Netroots so that they can respond immediately with their support.

I also urge all of you to go and read Burner’s diary on Daily Kos, for no other news article or post or piece of campaign literature I have seen so clearly lays out the candidates, the issues and what is at stake for our region and our nation in this election.

President Bush’s visit tomorrow will pump a startling half million dollars $800,000 or more into Reichert’s coffers, and is clear confirmation that both Rove and Bush believe that the silver-haired, leaden-tongued first term congressman is a loyal Bush Republican. We cannot allow Reichert to be coddled by the White House and the GOP House leadership on the one hand, and to claim independence on the other. We cannot allow this enormous influx of presidential money to come without a political cost.

If you have any plans to give to the Burner campaign at any time this year, now is the time to do it. And if you can afford to max out your contributions, now is the time to max out. Burner has set a modest goal of raising $75,000 in response to President Bush’s visit… but I’d like to see us blow past this target. So please, give directly to Darcy Burner today. Or if you prefer, you can give to Burner via my Act Blue page, and we’ll add the Netroots contributions into her total.

We can take back Congress. But we need your help.

The Republican House leadership has worked hard to help Rep. Dave Reichert craft an image as an independent moderate… an image he needs to maintain if he’s to have a hope of winning reelection in Washington’s moderate, independent-leaning 8th Congressional District. Indeed, Reichert publicly admitted as much:

“Back in Washington, there are lots of games played. […] Sometimes the leadership comes to me and says, “Dave, we want you to vote a certain way.” Now, they know I can do that over here, that I have to do that over here. In other districts, that’s not a problem, but here I have to be able to be very flexible in where I place my votes. […] That’s where I need to be in a fifty-fifty district.”

The fact is Reichert has never cast a single vote against the White House or the House leadership when it really mattered, and now Karl Rove is rewarding him for his loyalty by sending President Bush on a rare visit to campaign for a House Republican in his home district. On Friday, the President will appear at high-donor fundraiser in Medina, where he expects to raise over half a million dollars on behalf of Reichert. And if the media does its job explaining the context of this visit, it should come at a political price.

Make no mistake: President Bush is making an extraordinary effort on behalf of the 8th CD’s freshman congressman because he knows that Reichert is a reliable vote. And Reichert is welcoming Bush into his district because he is a staunch supporter of the President and his policies.

As November approaches, the Republicans will attempt to localize the election by trying to make it a race between the silver-haired sheriff and an unknown, untested newcomer. But voters need to understand that this race in this district is about whether we want to leave our nation’s future in the hands of President Bush and the GOP leadership, unchecked and unbalanced. A couple weeks ago Democratic pollster Celinda Lake told a local audience that the Democrats cannot take back the House without winning WA-08.

If you had any doubt that Reichert is little more than just one more rubber stamp in our Republican controlled rubber stamp Congress, President Bush’s visit Friday should put it to rest. Reichert is as loyal a Republican as they come.

President Bush’s visit also makes one other important statement about this race: that it is incredibly tight and that Republicans are incredibly worried. Few GOP candidates are willing to appear with such an unpopular President, but well… Reichert desperately needs the money. Darcy Burner shocked both the GOP and the Democratic establishment by outraising the incumbent in the first quarter, and Reichert needs a huge second quarter to reassure his base. The President’s visit will do that for him.

Rather than despair, Democrats are turning lemons into lemonade. The Burner campaign is asking you to give as much as you can in the days before and after Bush’s visit, to help offset Reichert’s presidential-visit cash advantage. The campaign has set an ambitious $75,000 goal, and I urge you to contribute directly. The campaign has set up a special donation page where you can track the progress.

I also urge you to share your voice. A rally will be held Friday at Westlake Center, starting at 11:15 AM. President Bush’s very public embrace of Reichert is big news, and we want to give the media every reason to cover it.

Tonight is Newsradio 710 KIRO’s annual “Battle of the Talk Show Hosts“, broadcast live from the Everett Events Center from 7 pm to 9 pm. Dave Ross, Ron Reagan, Dori Monson, Ron & Don and New York Vinnie will be slugging it out in a rhetorical steel cage match.

Afterwards I’ll be in the studio from 9 pm to 1 am providing post-game coverage with Frank Shiers and Bob Van Dyne. At least that’s what I’ve been told I’ll be doing. Or perhaps this is all just some bizarre talk radio hazing ritual?

Anyway, tune in to 710 KIRO tonight from 9 pm to 1 am and find out for yourself.

Seattle Times publisher Frank Blethen announced today that the paper will change its name to the Death Tax Repeal Times so as to better reflect the interests of its core audience — which judging from the content of its op/ed pages pretty much consists of Frank Blethen.

Of course I’m kidding. (About the name change.) But seriously… doesn’t Frank get even the teeniest bit embarrassed using his paper to so shamelessly and relentlessly shill for this issue? Today his op/ed pages actually hit the issue twice, with both an unsigned editorial and a guest column from high-priced lobbyist Jennifer Dunn.

I dunno, I just think we should expect better from a news organization that aspires to be our city and state’s paper of record.

(That said, the Times also has a great editorial on Dean Logan. Credit where credit is due… though it would have been nice if the paper had displayed this kind of moral support and blunt reporting while Logan was still in the job.)

UPDATE:
In the comment thread, N in Seattle points to the editorial cartoon today by Devericks, which equates the estate tax with grave-robbing. “Quite the trifecta for old Frank.”

Did the world change last weekend when 1200 bloggers converged on Las Vegas and yours truly invaded the local airwaves? N and Ellen just returned from Yearly Kos and joined the panel to talk about an amazing weekend that will surely be looked back on as a seminal event in the development of the netroots. Or so they say.

Joining me, N and Ellen in self-congratulatory lovefest were Mollie, Will, Carl, and Nick. Topics of discussion included Yearly Kos and the incredible convergence of bloggers, politicians and the press, my new weekly gig on 710-KIRO (Sundays, 7-10PM), President Bush’s upcoming visit to Seattle to raise money for struggling sycophant Dave Reichert, Peter Goldmark and his soon to be hot race in WA-05, Carl Ballard’s "three county strategy," house warming presents for Dean Logan, and of course… Tim Eyman’s many failures.

The show is 55:55, and is available here as a 36.1 MB MP3. Please visit PodcastingLiberally.com for complete archives and RSS feeds.

[Recorded live at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Special thanks to Confab creators Gavin and Richard for producing the show.]

The Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight (and every Tuesday), 8PM at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Come join us for some good beer and even better conversation.

If you happen to be a liberal drinker on the other side of the mountains, the Tri-Cities chapter of DL also meets Tuesday nights, 7 PM, Atomic Ale, 1015 Lee Blvd., in Richland. Go ask Jimmy for more details.

Meanwhile the Tacoma chapter of DL meets tomorrow night (and every Wednesday,) 8 PM at Meconi’s Pub, 709 Pacific Ave. They’ll be launching their “Guest Drinker” series with Rep. Dawn Morrell (D-Puyallup).

King County Superior Court Judge Mary Robert’s has tossed out Tim Eyman’s 2001 property tax initiative, I-747, ruling it unconstitutionally deceptive.

I-747 had been Timmy’s most wide-reaching victory, generally limiting increases in state and local property tax revenues to one percent a year… well below the rate of inflation. The fiscal impact has been catastrophic, particularly for rural taxing districts, with many now on the verge of insolvency.

Prior to 2000, local property increases were generally capped at six percent. In November of that year voter’s passed Eyman’s I-722, which amongst other things lowered that cap to two percent a year. I-722 was immediately challenged, and on November 30, 2000, the Thurston County Superior Court ordered a preliminary injunction barring implementation and enforcement.

In a concise, six-page decision, Judge Robert’s explains what happened next:

On January 11, 2001, after I-722’s implementation was halted, I-747 was filed with the secretary of state. By its language, I-747 sought to amend I-722, by decreasing the cap on property taxes from two percent to one percent, unless the voters approved a higher cap.

Amendatory legislation such as I-747 is subject to article II, section 37 of the state constitution, which requires that,

No act shall ever be revised or amended by mere reference to its title, but the act revised or the section amended shall be set forth at full length.

Wash. Const. art. 2,

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Apparently, prosecutors have told Karl Rove that he’s unlikely to be indicted. I suppose that could mean that he’s innocent of actually breaking a law. Or it could just mean that he’s a very, very good liar.