HorsesAss.Org

Worst since 1994.

The mood of uncertainty was evident in a local report this week showing that only 318 new and pre-owned houses sold in Clark County in November. That’s down 37.3 percent from the 507 home sales in the same month last year. November’s total was the lowest for that month since 1994, according to “benchmarks,” a tracking service of Vancouver’s Riley & Marks appraisal firm.

“Uncertainty” is probably the key word, as the article explores somewhat. How bad are job losses ultimately going to be? Will interest rates be set at 4.5%? Who knows?

A couple weeks back, in writing about our incredibly stupid special election for King County Elections Director, I urged Jason Osgood to drop out of the race in favor of a more viable candidate if the alternative would mean throwing the election to a partisan, career politician.  Well, yesterday, Jason did exactly that, throwing his support behind current Elections Director Sherril Huff.

Jason Osgood, a previously declared candidate, announced Tuesday he was dropping out of the race and throwing his support to Huff, whom he called “the most experienced and best-qualified candidate.”

I doubt you will ever meet anybody more passionate about election reform than Jason, and he deserves a ton of credit for such a gracious and responsible move.

FYI, I will be moderating the King County Democrats candidate forum on Monday, December 15th, 7-9 PM, at the Renton Carpenters Hall, 231 Burnett Avenue North in Renton.  All candidates who file by Friday’s deadline will be invited to participate, and I urge them all to do so with confidence that I will be tough but fair.

Bad kitty.

Earlier this week, over at Slog, Erica dismantled Jim Vesely’s proposal that bikers pay a $25 bike license fee for bike lanes and trails. Vesely’s idea might make some sense if accommodating biking didn’t also benefit car owners, and more important, if bikers didn’t have to simultaneously pay taxes and levies to fund roads that are largely dedicated to cars.

As Erica correctly points out, car owners do benefit from bikes and bikers are helping subsidize car owners:

Every year, the US government spends more than $100 billion to subsidize driving above and beyond driver expenditures on gas taxes, vehicle purchases, and license plates. 

Add on other shared costs related to cars—pollution, land use costs—and it’s hard to ignore that everyone, including those who don’t own cars, are subsidizing cars.

In turn, bikers shouldn’t be the only taxpayers to fund bike lanes. 

I’m revisiting Vesely’s ignorant editorial a few days late because it’s hard to ignore another example that’s come up this week where the public—bikers included—are going to be paying for car owners: The Feds are about to commit $15 billion to bail out GM, Chrysler, and Ford. 

I’m not saying bikers should be exempt from saving the auto industry, but as the kids say, I’m just sayin.

The Downtown Seattle Association, along with a who’s who of the city’s most prominent retail and residential real estate developers, has sent a letter to various state and local officials, all but laughing at the economic viability of “Option E,” state House Speaker Frank Chopp’s preferred alternative to replacing the Alaska Way Viaduct.

“This alternative relies on an economic premise that we believe is fundamentally flawed — that there is a market for nearly a mile of new retail development under the highway structure.”

No shit, Sherlock.

Chopp’s plan would call for a mile long, triple decker structure with a retail mall on the ground level and a four-lane sorta elevated tunnel above, capped with a pedestrian park.  The “genius” of Chopp’s plan is that above the basic cost of building the freeway, rents and development rights would pay for the park, the retail construction and other promised amenities.  Talk about a great deal.

Well, not so much, according to the folks who actually do this kinda stuff for a living, the very developers  Chopp is counting on to make Suicide Park Mall a reality.  Amongst the problems envisioned is the lack of demand for 600,000 square feet of new retail space, particularly at this location… you know, with all that “noise, lack of parking, and stigma of being under a freeway.”  One developer commented that the project would be too risky in a boom economy, let alone our current economic bust.

The developers also cited “engineering uncertainties” that make the project “unfeasible from a yield to cost perspective” (translation: impossible to make a profit), including the challenge of placing below-grade foundations within the highway right of way and the waterfront’s “well documented geotechnical conditions,” as well as the need to physically isolate the retail construction from the highway in order to minimize noise and vibration.

“Failure to accomplish this isolation would render the space below unacceptable for commercial occupancy.”

Given these and other inherent risks, the developers make it clear that the estimated rental income simply doesn’t offer a reasonable return on investment.

“It is our firm conviction that this scenario does not offer the commercially attractive or viable opportunities that are essential for funding the amenities that are suggested.  We strongly believe this scenario should be dropped from further analysis and consideration.”

And that’s not just some dumb blogger or activist (or mayor) talking; that’s the opinion of the chief officers of eight of the region’s most prominent developers.  Chopp can argue with the developers if he wants, but considering his project is entirely predicated on their investment, it’s the firmness of their conviction that counts, not its accuracy.

I know that given the political necessity of securing the Speaker’s cooperation whatever alternative is ultimately selected, everybody is afraid to criticize Option E as the utterly ridiculous “impractical and unachievable” fantasy it truly is, but criticizing Chopp and criticizing Chopp’s plan are not the same thing.

Chopp has done an admirable job building and maintaining a large Democratic majority in the House (using it, well, we’ll see how the coming session goes), and with a few notable exceptions he’s proven himself an effective and progressive (if sometimes too pragmatic) Speaker.  But Option E… it’s kinda crazy… economically, architecturally and politically… and it’s time somebody Chopp trusts tells him so.  All this polite beating around the bush… you’re not doing Frank any favors.

So now that the people with money have given everybody a little political cover, it is time for some prominent elected officials—including members of Chopp’s own caucus—to thank the Speaker for his creativity, but offer a very firm “no thank you” to a mile long mall that simply isn’t viable.  Otherwise, we’ll all just continue to fritter away time, money… and Speaker Chopp’s credibility.

Join us at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally for an evening of politics under the influence. We start at 8:00 pm at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Some of us will show up even earlier to dine.

Tonight’s special guest will be the newly elected Commissioner of Public Lands, Peter Goldmark. Stop by and chat with a genuine rancher, scientist, environmentalist, firefighter, and politician—a modern-day renaissance man.

Not in Seattle? Check out the Drinking Liberally web site for dates and times of a chapter near you.

Remember, you read it on HA first:

The Washington Association of Realtors is in trouble again with state campaign watchdogs — and this time Dino Rossi and state Attorney General Rob McKenna are implicated.

The Public Disclosure Commission (PDC) staff filed a complaint last week alleging the Realtors group illegally coordinated campaign spending with unsuccessful GOP gubernatorial candidate Rossi and McKenna, a Republican incumbent who won re-election last month.

The complaint also says the Realtors group did not properly report expenditures on brochures during the last three weeks of this year’s race for governor.

Almost $1 million in campaign spending is at issue in the complaint.

It took a few days, but both the Seattle Times and the Olympian report today on this latest Republican campaign finance scandal, and it looks like it’s making it onto the AP as well.  But so far they seem to have glossed over the real news here, the apparent complicity of Attorney General Rob McKenna.

If McKenna is as savvy a politician as we all think he is, he’d be wise to call for an independent prosecutor before others do.

It’s good to see that during these tough economic times, we have our priorities straight when it comes to funding higher education:

Though he has yet to sign a contract, Steve Sarkisian has a “memorandum of understanding” with Washington.

Annual guaranteed compensation:

Year	Salary
2009	$1,750,000
2010	$1,875,000
2011	$2,000,000
2012	$2,100,000
2013	$2,300,000

Incentive compensation: He will reach incentives if the Huskies play in a bowl game ($150,000), win the Pac-10 ($350,000), play in a BCS bowl or win the national title. He also can make up to $250,000 a year if the team meets certain academic standards.

Other compensation: includes standard UW employee benefits; the use of two vehicles, moving expenses; club membership.

I’m just sayin’….

We’ve all learned to be rightly skeptical of Bush Justice Department prosecutions of Democratic officials, but US Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald doesn’t exactly have a reputation as a partisan hack, so it’s hard to dismiss this morning’s indictment and arrest of Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich as mere politics as usual.

Assuming the allegations against Blagojevich are supported by the facts, I say good riddance.  Same goes for recently defeated Rep. William “Money in My Freezer” Jefferson (D-LA), who if he really loved his party and his nation would have resigned from Congress long ago, rather than bringing disgrace on the institution, and handing his seat over to an unknown Republican through sheer hubris.

Institutional and individual corruption, and the perceived tolerance of it, was at the heart of the Democrats’ historic defeat in 1994, and the Republican sequel in 2006, and my party would do well to learn a lesson from history.  Our numbers may be lessened by the fall of the likes of Blagojevich and Jefferson, but we are stronger without them, and we should resist the natural urge to defend our own when our own have violated the public trust.

Of course, not every allegation is substantiated, and not every scandal or ethical lapse is a criminal (or even a fireable) offense, so the line between corruption and mere bad judgment is not always clear.  But if the Democrats want to govern, and govern effectively, we should be prepared to err on the side of ethics over loyalty.

Ill. governor and aid arrested. From TPM:

Beleaguered Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich was taken into custody by law enforcement authorities at his home this morning, reports the Tribune Company, sourcing a US Attorney’s office spokesman. The governor’s chief of staff, John Harris, was also arrested.

Hours earlier, the Chicago Tribune reported that the federal probe of pay-to-play politics in the Blagojevich administration had expanded to include the question whether the process of filling Barack Obama’s US Senate seat — for which the governor is responsible — had become tainted.

Quite the turn of events. Don’t know much if anything about Illinois politics or Blagojevich. Obviously these are very serious allegations.

Then again, it’s not as if the Bush Justice Department has ever been accused of targeting a Democratic governor for political reasons.

I guess we’ll just have to see how this sorts out.

UPDATE 9:15 AM–Here’s one quick take by Josh Marshall on the charges against llinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D):

A few of you have written in to ask whether this is a case of Siegelman redux — that is, something akin to the case of former Gov. Don Siegelman of Alabama, a Democratic governor sandbagged by Republican partisans in the US Attorney’s office.

Short answer: Don’t bet on it.

Needless to say, I haven’t had any real chance to evaluate the specific charges themselves. But I would be extremely cautious about jumping to such conclusions. Patrick Fitzgerald, the US Attorney in Chicago, put the previous Illinois governor away too. That was Republican George Ryan. Fitzgerald was also the special prosecutor who investigated the Plame Leak case.

I remember a few years ago I was having lunch with a prominent Democratic consultant who told me that Fitzgerald was “naive” about how politics worked — relative to his work in Chicago. I just listened and waited to move on to another subject. What is true is that Fitzgerald takes a pretty stringent view of political corruption. But that’s not such a bad thing.

Goldy has also stated sentiments along the same lines. I think that’s a fair analysis at this point, and as the story unfolds, it’s becoming clear that those familiar with Illinois politics are not exactly surprised. I’ve read the word “idiot” associated with Blagojevich about ten times in the last twenty minutes.

Allegedly criminal oligarch arrested:

But when the lawyer, Marc S. Dreier, stepped off a flight from Canada on Sunday night, federal authorities in New York arrested him in a $100 million fraud scheme, portraying his recent undertakings as more high-stakes grifting than high-end lawyering.

In brazen and carefully choreographed scams here and in Canada, Mr. Dreier, who in 1996 founded a 250-lawyer firm that bears his name, is said to have tried to take advantage of the current financial crisis by selling phony debt to hungry hedge funds looking for deals.

It’s quite the story if you click through, worthy of its own tee-vee drama if you ask me. Much more interesting than starlets exposing themselves.

There is bleating going on by the right about how we need efficiency in government. And you know, we do need efficiency in government. But we also need efficiency and accountability in the private sector. If someone can sell over $100 million in utterly fake and worthless notes to hedge funds, there’s not much accountability there. Basically Wall Street became home to a type of organized crime. Instead of burying bodies they buried the entire economy.

Time to dust off those RICO statutes and get even busier.

Oligarchs win, workers lose.

Tribune’s board was advised by a group of bankers from Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, which walked off with $35.8 million and $37 million, respectively. But those banks played both sides of the deal: they also lent Mr. Zell the money to buy the company. For that, they shared an additional $47 million pot of fees with several other banks, according to Thomson Reuters. And then there was Morgan Stanley, which wrote a “fairness opinion” blessing the deal, for which it was paid a $7.5 million fee (plus an additional $2.5 million advisory fee).

On top of that, a firm called the Valuation Research Corporation wrote a “solvency opinion” suggesting that Tribune could meet its debt covenants. Thomson Reuters, which tracks fees, estimates V.R.C. was paid $1 million for that opinion. V.R.C. was so enamored with its role that it put out a press release.

Unbelievable. Obviously no sector is immune from shoddy practices and insane financial contortions.

My crystal ball is at the state capitol protesting atheism by showing “It’s a Wonderful Life” on a loop, but some wags are predicting there is going to be a major US city without a daily newspaper in the near future.

Before anyone breaks out the champagne, they might want to consider all those people in suits and pantsuits who walk around city halls and state capitols hatching all sorts of schemes under less scrutiny now than they deserve. The idea of a major US city being “watch dogged” mostly by local television reporters should send shivers down the spine of any citizen. Not every crooked mayor is going to be carrying a puppy around.

Speaking of Sen. Margarita Prentice, D-Renton, why isn’t there a stink about the apparent purging of state Sen. Craig Pridemore, D-Vancouver, from Ways and Means?

Something smells there. We are facing the mother of all budget crises, and the Democrats in the Senate waste a guy whose professional expertise is budget analysis, seemingly to appease a senior member who felt threatened. Not a smart move.

Heads up… newly elected Commissioner of Public Lands Peter Goldmark will be stopping by the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally tomorrow night, where we can all bask a bit in the afterglow of his sweet victory.  So come on by to chat with Peter and toast a new administration that won’t be in the pockets of the mining and timber industries.

Abject silliness:

In 2012, for example, cyclists and pedestrians will have trails 14-feet wide in SoDo near the stadiums. Any Highway 520 floating bridge schematic includes a lane for cyclists. How about if they help pay their share? If Interstate 90 and Highway 520 bridges are tolled, it’s only logical to expect cyclists to pay a modest toll, too, for access to a great path across the water and spectacular views.

Jon touched on this, and just as I thought it would, the discussion of this issue devolved into an argument on the merits of bicycling and on area cyclist’s adherence to certain traffic laws. Yawn.

What’s more interesting about this issue making a major – major! – daily newspaper’s opinion page is how totally out of touch the writer seems to be about the basics of how we pay for these bicycle improvements. I’ll let this comment from the Times’ column do the explaining:

I saw this ‘enlightening’ article after riding my bicycle with my partner from the condo that we own and passed the car that we also own, to a local coffee shop, where we bought coffees and something to eat. But wait – we own a home and a car and bought prepared food and yet, according to Vesely we are not, “true members of the world of transportation, rather than free riders on the tax rolls?”

I guess all this time we, as cyclists, have been paying taxes that we shouldn’t have? Can I get a refund then?