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It’s sunrise in Iran, and whatever the coming day brings is likely to be both inspiring and ugly.

Monday’s march in Tehran is reported by ABC (via HuffPo) to have been five miles long. Another is scheduled for today, as well as a general strike, amidst numerous reports of dissension among some ruling hardline clerics and countless smaller protests. Some miscellany:

* The violence could have been, and may still become, much worse. And we know very little about what’s happening in cities and towns outside Tehran, 19 of whom were also set to have Monday demonstrations.

* Almost all of our knowledge is coming via Twitter. (#iranelection is the go-to feed.) Iranians are beating the censors — who’ve shut down cell phone operation as well as Internet access — by phoning out of the country to proxies who are tweeting for them. And you, yes, you, can help: go here to find out how to become a proxy.

* Lest you think this phenomenon is an accident, the Mousavi campaign has been promoting the slogan “One person = one broadcaster.” And the international connections thus made are themselves a major, unprecedented phenomenon likely to have important political and cultural consequences.

* American media on this has been just dreadful, when it’s cared at all. A lot of print media today had a tone similar to this appalling NYT “news analysis” that treated the election as a done deal and the protests as essentially irrelevant. (They don’t involve official spokespeople, you know.) To repeat: these protests are no longer about the elections. They’re about the legitimacy of the regime. It scarcely matters whether the reported election result was accurate or not; millions of Iranians don’t think so and have had enough. That’s what matters.

Meanwhile, I heard an ABC Radio “national newscast” this afternoon (on KOMO-AM, Seattle’s self-billed only all-news radio station) that, just before the end of the newscast, devoted one sentence and about five seconds to a story that is riveting the world concerning a country the U.S. has major foreign policy issues with. And CNN’s Larry King, always with his finger on the pulse, devoted his show tonight to….American Idol.

* The always-astute BooMan makes a useful point:

The 1979 revolution in Iran took over a year to unfold….each clash with protesters that resulted in fatalities led to new more impassioned protests as people gathered for funerals and memorials. It’s often said that the revolution advanced in 40-day stages, as forty days is the traditional period of mourning in Iran’s culture. Americans are not accustomed to such slow-motion revolution with massive (over month-long) pauses. Add to this, the new 24-hour news environment, and this feature of Iran’s political and religious tradition should solidly flummox most analysts….Even if things calm down and appear to settle out over the next few weeks, forty days from now you could see a seemingly spontaneous re-eruption of street protests….This attempt at revolution cannot be considered as over until we seem calm sustained for a very long time.

The poll has closed, and there were no surprises.

I listed all 12 state House incumbents from districts touching Seattle, Democrats all, and asked which was most deserving of a serious challenger. Of course Speaker Frank Chopp came out way ahead with 28% of the vote (though being deserving of a challenge and being even the teeniest-tiniest bit vulnerable to one are two different things).

But of more interest was the trio of Sharon Tomiko Santos, Mary Lou Dickerson and Phyllis Gutierrez Kenney, who finished well ahead of the rest of the pack in a near dead heat of 13% apiece. These are the three names I hear come up most often when the topic is raised amongst Seattle’s politiscenti, and these were the three names you voted for most. Again, no surprise there.

That said, a glance at the results does show an interesting pattern. Yeah, sure, after Chopp, the four highest vote-getters are women, with Rep. Eileen Cody scoring a distant fifth place behind our winning trio, but I don’t think gender is the major factor it at first appears. Rather, the five names at the top of the list also happen to be the Seattle incumbents who have served the longest in the House, accumulating an impressive 68 years of service between them, compared to only 27 years total for the other seven representatives.

	Votes	Pct.	Years
Frank Chopp	162	28%	15
Sharon Tomiko Santos	79	13%	11
Mary Lou Dickerson	75	13%	15
Phyllis Gutierrez Kenney	74	13%	12
Eileen Cody	44	8%	15
Jamie Pedersen	42	7%	3
Reuven Carlyle	39	7%	1
Scott White	19	3%	1
Eric Pettigrew	17	3%	7
Bob Hasegawa	14	2%	5
Zack Hudgins	11	2%	7
Sharon Nelson	10	2%	3

Perhaps Santos, Dickerson and Kenney’s position near the top of the list really is due to job performance. Or perhaps it merely reflects their years of incumbency, and a sense that Seattle Dems are growing impatient with legislators who after years of service have failed to deliver the progressive reforms we want and need.

But I’m not sure it matters.

Eliminating Chopp as an outlier, we’ll pit Santos, Dickerson and Kenney against each other in a general election of sorts later this week, to determine who is the best target for a serious challenge. But coming up first, we’ll do the same for the four Seattle state senators up for reelection in 2010.

UPDATE:
Apparently, the poll didn’t close quite when I thought it closed, and the numbers have changed a touch since I wrote this post, but not enough to change the general results.

President Obama strolled into the lion’s den today, giving a speech on health care reform to the American Medical Association, historically one of the most vocal and effective organizations opposing past reform efforts.

Despite the AMA’s stated opposition to Obama’s “public option” proposal, the President’s carefully worded speech drew frequent rounds of applause from the Republican-leaning audience. Indeed the only smattering of boos Obama reportedly received came when he restated his long-held opposition to caps on medical malpractice awards. Which raises an idea…

If the government is going to offer a public option for health insurance, perhaps one way to soften doctors’ opposition would be to also offer a public option for medical malpractice insurance to those doctors who choose to participate in the plan and accept the negotiated fees for services? Seems to me that such a system where the same entity is insuring both doctors and patients might balance the incentive to keep costs low with the incentive to avoid outcomes that could result in expensive lawsuits.

Just thinkin’ out loud…

It turns out, I’m not the only Democrat frustrated with the recent performance of the Democratic-controlled Washington State Legislature in general, and the relatively toothless Seattle delegation in particular. Indeed, similar frustration is being expressed by some Democratic legislators themselves:

Further complicating matters is Seattle’s legislative delegation, many of whom enjoy near elected-for-life status, who choose to focus on statewide policy issues as opposed to parochial matters.

“We have no united voice,” [State Sen. Ed] Murray said. “Whether it’s Spokane or Bremerton, or Vancouver, the council and the chamber of commerce come down united. We come down fighting amongst ourselves. That is not the way to get things accomplished.”

Huh. That kinda criticism sounds much more credible coming from a state senator than it does coming from a DFLB like me, doesn’t it? And it’s echoed by Rep. Deb Eddy, one of the few legislators who routinely dares to tread in the cesspool that is HA’s comment thread, who confirms that a lack of cohesiveness is not a problem of the Seattle delegation alone.

I absolutely agree that we fell short of the mark this year … the House’s overall work product was not particularly cohesive.

But Sen. Murray’s and Rep. Eddy’s blunt critique is nothing compared to Rep. Brendan Williams’ scathing comparison of Washington legislators to their more progressive and proactive colleagues across the border in Oregon:

As legislative political careerism trumps vision, Washington may only be able to follow its smaller southern neighbor’s lead. Even its emulation falls short, though.

[…] Unfortunately, it’s increasingly clear the far-right homebuilders’ lobby rules Washington in a feudalistic fashion that perhaps only has parallels in the most conservative southern states. Their most recent newsletter celebrates “excellent relations” on “both sides of the political aisle” as the key to stopping taxes, consumer and workers’ rights, and any significant environmental gains. So long as that control persists, I’ll have to keep coming down to Portland to see progress in action.

I doubt either Sen. Murray, Rep. Williams, or Rep. Eddy take much pleasure in criticizing their own colleagues; these are folks they have to work with after all, and under fairly cramped and intimate conditions. And I don’t particularly enjoy criticizing fellow Democrats either.

But it’s hard to look at what happened in Olympia this year, compared to the recent accomplishments of Oregon’s Democratic legislative majority, and conclude that our legislature as a whole is good enough, or that it did the best job it could given the dire circumstances. You know… unless you’re a Republican.

And if we’re not satisfied with the performance of the legislature as a whole, it’s time to start thinking about replacing some of its parts.

There are still a few hours left to vote in our poll on which Seattle representatives most deserve an intra-party challenge. It’s unscientific, sure, but it doesn’t have to be to make a point.

UPDATE:
Via email, Sen. Murray clarifies:

The issue I was referring to in PI this morning had nothing to do with the Seattle legislators or really with the Mayor. The consistent problem during my fourteen years in Olympia has been the inability of the council to speak with a single voice on projects they want form Olympia. I have worked with Rice, Schell, and Nickels, and again and again a group of council-members will attempt to undermine what ever the city position is. You just don’t see this sort of disunity from other cities in the state.

Okay, but I think it’s fair to say that the Seattle delegation has no united voice either.

Via Alternet comes this:

First, from an American media perspective, here was another great moment for folks to demand what they wanted to see covered on national news media. What a moment of media dissonance: As protests erupted — and in some cases, turned violent — in the streets of Tehran and elsewhere in Iran, major broadcast media in the U.S. had little to no news on the events at all. By using the hashtag1 #CNNfail to collect all of the dissatisfaction on Twitter, Americans were able to shift the focus of the conversation and eventually influence CNN’s decision makers to start covering stories by Sunday.

Okay, I’ll admit I haven’t really seen the point of Twitter until now. Those crazy kids and their desire to change things, both here and in Iran!

Good on them.

UPDATE from Geov (9:12 AM)

Translations from: http://twitter.com/alirezasha

“I just talked to my cousin in Azadi Sq., there are more than three million people there.”

Azadi Square is a famous main square in Tehran, a city of about ten million people. Make no mistake — these protests are a serious threat to the regime.

At 4 PM Monday Iran time (or, about when it gets light here), anti-regime marches have been called in 20 Iranian cities. This is to be followed by a general strike Tuesday. The main flow of information out of Iran right now is not coming through traditional media — and especially not U.S. media — but via Twitter. Check the #iranelection Twitter feed for continuous updates. Stateside, the blog of the National Iranian-American Council has also been a good source.

Expect hundreds of thousands, if not millions, in the streets Monday. And expect crackdowns. The regime is in a hard place. They can’t give quarter to the protesters, but they also don’t want to create martyrs; the escalation of protests since Friday is very similar to the arc that brought down the Shah in 1979. This is already no longer about a disputed election, but about the legitimacy of the rule of the mullahs.

It’s also worth noting that Iran’s 2005 general presidential election was similarly suspect. Ahmadinejad was expected to finish third out of the four leading candidates, but slipped into second under dubious conditions, and then won the runoff. Is it any wonder the fundamentalists thought they could get away with fraud again this time? (After all, it worked even better for fundamentalists in Ohio in 2004 than it did in Florida in 2000…)

And speaking of American neo-cons, spiritual cousins to Ahmadinejad’s patrons, how despicable is it that the emerging narrative on wingnut sites seems to be that this stolen election is wonderful news, because it ruins Obama’s overtures and makes it more likely that Israel or even the US will launch military attacks on Iran? Rather than support the people in the streets in dozens of Iranian cities, demanding freedom and democracy, our wingnut friends want first to abandon them to Revolutionary Guard thugs (whose acts of violent suppression they’re clearly rooting for), then to bomb them. These cretins sure know how to win friends and influence people.

As someone who grew up in Kansas (and we got the heck out of there as soon as we had the means to do so,) I would just like to say I’m sorry that some Kansans are so messed up and they’re really not all like this.

The protesters targeted Mount Zion Baptist Church in Seattle during the worship service, shouting and waving placards saying “You’re Going to Hell” and “God Hates Fags.”

Jonathan Phelps, one of the protest ringleaders, said Mount Zion and other churches are spreading lies.

“They’ve preached that lie from hell that God loves everybody – that you can live like the devil and have any hope of heaven at all,” Phelps said.

The Phelps clan is a real piece of work, that’s for sure. I realize it’s easy to dismiss “flyover country” but there are lots of good folks back in the Midwest who have to battle the crazy folk while still managing to deal with business. The fellow who taught us high school biology, for example, wound up as a leading force fighting the Discovery Institute’s attempts to impose their ideology on Kansas high school students.

Once up on a time Kansas was almost progressive, but it’s kind of gone to hell now politically, despite the gains by Democrats under Kathleen Sebelius.

It’s too bad because when Kansans aren’t buying into Discovery Institute creationism, they tend to have an admirable emphasis on education and child welfare. Think “Minnesota nice” with a southern Plains flair, all but obscured now on the national scene by hate and craziness.

Steve Clemons has some interesting posts about the unraveling situation in Iran. Brad DeLong has a collection of updates as well.

Last week’s contest was won by wes.in.wa. It was White’s Ferry near Leesburg, VA. And commenter ‘rhp6033’ gives us an interesting history tidbit related to this area north of DC.

Here’s this week’s contest. Good luck!

From today’s Seattle Times:

A man suspected of shooting his 4-year-old Rottweiler and abandoning it to die off a Forest Service road near North Bend has turned himself in.

[…] Intentionally shooting a dog and leaving it to suffer is a Class C felony, which carries a maximum penalty of five years in prison and a $10,000 fine.

Curiously, the Times fails to name the identity of the dog shooter, which just struck me as an odd editorial decision. I mean, what kind of an asshole would shoot a dog?

Oh.  Yeah.

– Nicholas Kristof takes on the drug war in the New York Times. Senator Jim Webb takes on the drug war on Capitol Hill.

– The ACLU has set up a centralized portal page for news and updates on the investigation into the Bush Administration’s torture policies.

– The Feds have frozen or seized the bank accounts of 27,000 online poker players.

– Dave Neiwert was on CNN to discuss the rising amount of far-right violence since Obama has taken office.

– Back in 2006, a SUNY New Paltz student named Justin Holmes was elected President of the Student Association. Holmes also happened to be a member of NORML and Students for Sensible Drug Policy. After his election, the University zealously tried to get Holmes expelled. They briefly succeeded before a judge reinstated his enrollment. Holmes now has a new blog set up (and an 85-minute documentary).

– Transform writes about how the U.S. successfully censored a WHO study on cocaine in the mid-90s

I’m certainly no expert on Iran, but it is kind of striking that if you want to find out anything about what is going on you have to seek sources other than U.S. based news outlets. This is obviously a very serious situation that impacts not only our foreign policy but thousands of immigrants from Iran now in the U.S. And there’s nothing on the cable tee-vee because it’s the weekend.

So much for the oft-repeated axiom that “at least television covers breaking news well.”

Anyhow, you can check out this BBC story if you wish.

The BBC’s John Simpson saw secret policemen being attacked and chased away by protesters, which he says is extremely rare.

Some of the protesters in Tehran wore Mr Mousavi’s campaign colour of green and chanted “Down with the dictator”, news agencies report.

Four police motorbikes were set on fire near the interior ministry, where votes had been counted, our correspondent says.

Yes, it’s a fluid situation and this doesn’t mean there is necessarily a revolution in the offing. But three decades after the “Islamic Revolution,” a hotly contested election and apparent public outrage over the results might warrant some satellite time.

Well, you would expect coverage if there are any American correspondents anywhere in position, which I don’t imagine there are. Your liberal media in inaction. I’m not saying they should risk their lives, but you’d expect some live coverage from somewhere in the region, maybe send Rick Santelli to the UAE or something.

Juan Cole is skeptical about the results of the Iranian election yesterday, pointing out what appear to be some rather glaring red flags. The big question that’s on a lot of people’s minds is the effect that Obama is having on this and other recent elections in the Middle East. I’ve been fairly pleased with Obama’s approach to the region so far. His speech in Cairo was well-timed and struck the right chords. But I also tend to agree with Josh that it’s wrong to give him all the credit for Hezbollah’s poor showing in the Lebanese elections earlier in the week.

That said, I disagree with this:

Let’s rewind with a little context: Contrary to all conventional wisdom (even conventional wisdom in Israel), Israel’s war on Hezbollah in 2006 was actually successful. It was not, as everyone reported, a sort of mini-Vietnam for the Israeli army. I’ve been arguing this for a while. And anticipating Hezbollah’s troubles.

Check it out: Israel routed Hezbollah out of Southern Lebanon.

I think this AP report provides better context for what happened there. While the author contends that Obama actually did weigh on the minds of Lebanese voters, concerns over Iranian influence were the main impetus behind the rejection of Hezbollah.

Lebanon is a nation used to being caught in the middle of larger battles, between Israel, the U.S., Syria and Iran. The Lebanese Civil War on the 80s splintered the country into a number of factions, many of which became specifically aligned with one or more of those outside powers. The recent trend in Lebanese politics has been to oppose whichever faction appears to be taking the hardest line within those larger conflicts and raising the temperature in Beirut. When that faction was Israel in 2006, Hezbollah gained in strength. Today, that faction appears to be Iran. And while I agree that Obama’s speech in Cairo didn’t necessarily directly inspire Lebanese voters to vote one way or another, the perception of change that Obama’s election has brought to how the U.S. will deal with the region most likely altered the perceptions of who many Lebanese see as a greater threat to their stability.

UPDATE: Gary Sick has an interesting post on what’s happening in Iran.

TPM links to a KOMO story at the P-I web site concerning the arrest of an Everett woman accused in a double homicide in Arizona. Turns out she’s described as a leader of the “Minutemen American Defense.” From KOMO via the P-I:

An outspoken anti-immigration activist from Everett has been arrested in Arizona in connection to a deadly home invasion robbery.

Shawna Forde, the executive director of the Minutemen American Defense, is one of three accused in the shooting deaths of 29-year-old Raul Flores and his daughter, 9-year-old Brisenia Flores, at their home in Arivaca, Ariz., a town 10 miles north of the Mexican border.

Two others – 34-year-old Jason Bush and 42-year-old Albert Gaxiola – were arrested. All three have been charged with two counts of first-degree murder, one count of first-degree burglary and one count of aggravated assault.

According to the Pima County Sheriff’s Office, two men and a woman posing as police officers forced their way into the Flores ‘ home in the middle of the night on May 30.

It is not known exactly what transpired next, but Raul Flores and his daughter were shot and killed. The girl’s mother was wounded and is recovering in a local hospital, deputies said.

The Everett Herald ran a piece about Forde in February after she made allegations that Mexican drug cartel figures were somehow connected to the shooting of her ex-husband, but it’s fair to say the article casts serious doubt on that contention. There’s also some interesting um, other stuff. From the Everett Herald on Feb. 22, 2009:

Exactly what Forde does on the border is unclear. She reports being interviewed about immigration issues by dozens of journalists; a handful of articles appear to have been published.

Her Web site features shaky videos, often focusing on the garbage left in the desert by people sneaking into the country. On one film clip, Forde claims to have found a place in the desert where human smugglers regularly rape women. On another, she suggests border agents have found bodies of drug smugglers whom she claims were duped by terrorists into carrying radioactive materials into the U.S., hidden inside loads of marijuana.

On the video, Forde says the smugglers’ bodies can’t be touched because “the radiation is so heavy (it) will kill you on contact.”

Forde is circumspect when questioned about how her group works with law enforcement agencies. In the interview at The Herald, she described presenting what she called “after-action reports” to a man she declined to identify, except to say he is a former employee of the Central Intelligence Agency.

Very sad. Obviously law abiding groups that want to change immigration laws cannot be held accountable for what appear to the heinous actions of a lunatic, but it’s also clear that the lunatics are acting out with increased frequency right now.

What’s also sad is that there are no easy answers. The First Amendment gives us all very broad freedoms, especially when it comes to political speech, meaning that all citizens need to evaluate the credibility of those who speak and the types of persons with whom they associate. Who would imagine that people who run around in the desert playing army would have mental issues?

The responsible thing to do right now is decry violence. The killings of a doctor, military recruiters, a museum guard and a nine year old child are reprehensible examples of deranged losers using politics as a cover for their inability to function in the world, and reasonable Americans are sickened by the current outbreak of violence.

It’s been pointed out that I’ve been imprecise in my use of the term “primary challenge.”

Of course, that’s old language, that doesn’t really fit Washington’s ridiculous top-two primary reality, especially not in districts like those here in Seattle, where one party or the other is impossibly uncompetitive.  Challenge a Seattle incumbent in the August primary and it’s really just an exhibition game, that at most suggests a likely outcome for the November general election.

So I guess what we’re really talking about here is an intraparty challenge, in which a Democratic incumbent is challenged by a fellow Democrat. Same idea, different words.

Speaking of which, the results of the House intraparty challenge elimination round poll have so far been unsurprising.  Of course, the overwhelming winner (loser?) thus far is Frank Chopp, though as speaker, he’s not exactly a ripe target for a serious challenge. But the next three highest vote getters are also the three names I’ve heard mentioned most often as being in need of an early retirement.

We’ll see if that holds up once all the votes are tallied.