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Poll in the Washington state gubernatorial race

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Public Policy Polling has released polling results in the 2012 Washington state gubernatorial race. Their press release gets right to the point:

McKenna, Inslee basically tied for WA Gov.

[…]The most likely match up for Governor of Washington next year looks like it would be a barn burner, with Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna starting out with just a 40-38 lead over Democratic Congressman Jay Inslee. With 23% of Democrats and only 13% of Republicans undecided at this point that looks like a sheer toss up.

The main reason McKenna is ahead of Inslee at this point is slightly higher name recognition.

(The same poll finds Inslee beating Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA-08) handily, 42% to 36%.)

McKenna is the more recognized brand right now, with 60% of respondents having formed an opinion of him, whereas only 51% have formed an opinion on Inslee.

What I found interesting in the crosstabs is that, in a McKenna—Inslee match-up, groups likely to support Inslee have higher “uncertain” responses:

  • Liberals 31%, conservatives 28%
  • Women 25%, men 18%
  • Democrats 23%, Republicans 13%
  • 18-29 year olds 24%, about 13% for older voters

Thus it seems support for Inslee has the greater growth potential as name recognition improves.

Open Thread

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– “a refresher course in the difference between consensual sex and assault”

– RIP, Harmon Killebrew.

– “And holy crap I literally made none of that up.”

– I usually don’t do videos in open threads (I just forward to Darryl). But I don’t think you’ll want to wait until Friday night to see Dorothy Parvaz talk about her detention. Thank goodness she’s been released.

– Sounds like a scam.

– See you on the streets for Bike to Work Day, and I’ll probably go to the after party!

Blowing The Red

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With the weather finally turning nice and more people commuting by bike, I thought it would be a good time to discuss biking through the red lights. I do it occasionally, but under pretty specific circumstances. Some people, God love them, don’t blow through any reds, and some people seem to barely notice that there are conditions (let alone the red itself) that might warrant not going right now.

First off, if you don’t want to ever blow a red, that’s awesome. It can be dangerous. It can mess with pedestrians. Even if it is safe, it’s still illegal. In a city that doesn’t jay walk much, I can understand the urge to sit at those lights. Also, one of my favorite things about riding a bike in the city is the interactions you get with other bicyclists while waiting for the light to change. They’re usually short conversations that don’t get much beyond “where are you going?” but it’s still fun to talk to like minded people for a minute or two, and you’ll miss a lot of it if you go through the light.

That said, I blow red lights occasionally. I also jay walk in much the same way: be safe and don’t be an asshole. So the main question is not when do circumstances warrant it, but when don’t they: Don’t ever go through a red if there’s traffic.* Assume they can’t see you. Even if they can see you, they quite reasonably aren’t expecting you to blow the light when they have the right of way. But even if you can reasonably guess how fast the next car is coming, and that you can make it, don’t blow the light. If traffic is coming in that circumstance, there’s still a good chance that you’ll force them to hit the breaks or slow down by taking their foot off the gas. If they have the right of way, they shouldn’t have to do that. Bicyclists demand that cars share the road; we ought to extend the same kindness to drivers.

Even when there aren’t cars around, you still have an obligation to be safe and not an asshole to pedestrians and other bicyclists. If there’s a reasonable chance you might hit them, just stay put until everyone is clear. If the pedestrian at the curb is looking like she might cross, but you’re not sure, stay put. Hell, get off your bike, so they know you aren’t going until they’re done.

After that, I say go for it.

[Read more…]

Buyer’s Remorse

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Who could have guessed that sending far-right Republican ideologues to Congress would backfire for the people who need government programs like Medicare:

Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) came face to face with this growing movement at a town hall in Vancouver, Washington last night. Dozens of protesters encamped outside the meeting, waving signs like “Save Medicare: Tax the Rich.” When she tried to defend her vote on the GOP budget that would effectively privatize Medicare, “a chorus of boos and catcalls and shouts of ‘liar’ erupted in the auditorium.” The congresswoman was repeatedly called out by what the local press called a “rough crowd.”

It amazes me that there are people out there who voted for Herrera Beutler, but are now surprised that she’s voting to take away Medicare. What the hell did you expect? What part of Republican governance for the past 30 years hasn’t been clear? Modern Republicans don’t think government should provide safety nets to you any more. That means no Medicare, no Social Security. It means if you didn’t make enough money over your life – or if you’re one of those unlucky souls who gets a long-term illness that costs lots of money to treat – you need to look in the mirror and ask yourself why you didn’t have a good enough stock portfolio.

Cantwell v. the mighty pool of the Washington state’s G.O.P. (party)

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I know…I shouldn’t pick on the pathetic. But I will anyway.

Two weeks ago, after an Elway poll came out with mixed news for Sen. Maria Cantwell, I did a preliminary assessment of Cantwell’s vulnerability to a Republican challenger. I didn’t find the minor weaknesses uncovered by the Elway poll overly concerning. The poll didn’t do head-to-head match-ups for a general election, but it did find 46% would vote to keep Cantwell in office, and 36% would vote to replace her—a result almost identical that at this point in the 2006 election cycle.  

My non-concern also reflected evidence from a much richer series of data from Survey USA’s regular tracking polls. They show Cantwell’s recent approval bouncing erratically from about 40% to 55%, with the most recent one at 49%.

Now Public Policy Polling has released a new poll that sheds more light on Cantwell’s lack of vulnerability. The poll finds her with 50% approval and 36 disapproval:

Cantwell is pretty universally well liked within her own party, at 80/7 with Democrats. She’s also on narrowly positive ground with independents at 44/40 and has a 17% approval rating with Republicans, which is a decent amount of crossover support (we generally found Patty Murray with a single digit approval with GOP voters over the course of last year’s campaign.)

The Republican who comes closest to Cantwell is an old favorite- Dino Rossi, who trails 53-40. Susan Hutchison and Dave Reichert do next best, both trailing by a 49-35 margin. Clint Didier trails 51-35 and Cathy McMorris Rodgers has the largest deficit at 50-31. Cantwell wins independent voters by 5-12 points in all of the match ups and picks up 8-9% of the Republican vote while only losing 2-5% of the Democratic vote.

Wow…a 17% approval with Republicans!

The head-to-head match-ups suggest that none of the Republican challengers can do any better against Cantwell than Mike McGavick’s dismal 39.9% result in 2006.

The bottom line:

Cantwell’s reasonably popular and the GOP doesn’t have anyone good to run against her.

This pretty much validates my statement from two weeks ago, “given the absence of a strong opponent on the horizon, I am simply unwilling to fret over a single Elway Poll….”

This new poll illuminates the state of the state Republicans: their candidate pool is nothing short of pathetic. There are almost no Republicans with any statewide appeal. Attorney General McKenna is about it, and he’s looking for opportunities elsewhere.

Signature Gathering Map for I-1149 is Online!

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Last year during the I-1068 signature gathering effort (the legalization initiative that fell about 50,000 signatures short of the required amount to make the ballot), I encountered a number of people in the comment threads here and elsewhere who were at a loss as to how they could help. With that in mind, and with my extra free time over the past two months, I’ve helped Sensible Washington put together a new online resource for folks to help get I-1149 on the ballot this year. You can visit the page here or just click the screenshot below.

This page allows you find businesses that have I-1149 petitions on site. It allows you to locate the Sensible Washington coordinator closest to you in order to obtain petitions or turn yours in. And it has a compilation of festivals, sporting events, concerts, and other events between now and July 4th weekend where you can stand with a clipboard and help us get this initiative on the ballot in November. Get involved, and let’s get it done this year in Washington!

Thanks For the Veto

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I’ve been critical of Gregoire for various things. And Lee has bee a lot more critical than me especially after the misguided veto of the medical marijuana bill. But unlike Lee, I’d have no problem voting for her again (although I hope she doesn’t run, and if she does, I’ll gladly support someone else in a primary). There are real and important ways that she’s better than Rossi would have been. For one thing, she doesn’t seem to hate teachers like The Seattle Times’ Ed Board.

They spend a whole lot of time not engaging with Gregoire’s stated reasons for opposing the measure (in short, we’re in the middle of revising the way we evaluate teachers because how we currently evaluate them doesn’t work). There’s a little dancing around that, but even then it’s pretty minimal.

It would be great to have the 82,000-strong union on the right side but not at a cost that would be borne by students betting their educational futures on the success of reforms. Requiring districts to take performance into account during layoffs represents a significant game changer. Layoffs are disruptive; robbing classrooms of good teachers is even more harmful.

Lynne (or whoever, but it’s Lynne Varner), just because you saw Waiting For Superman doesn’t mean that teachers are wrong. They’re the ones pushing for smaller class sizes and better teacher pay while your ed board keeps demanding tax cut after tax cut that has the effect of larger class sizes and worse pay. Teachers and their unions are the ones pushing for higher quality K-12 education in Washington.

I’d bet if you wanted, it wouldn’t be too tough to get the teachers on board with these sorts of reforms as part of a grand bargain: If you pushed for 25 student maximum classes and teacher pay in the six figures (for example) along with smarter evaluations of this kind, I bet you could get the teachers unions to support it. Instead you insist on something less meaningful (and quite possibly arbitrary). And your ed board insists on the things that have made gutting education inevitable.

Most teachers are good instructional leaders not threatened by accountability. Uncertainty about the shift is outweighed by the fairness and legitimacy promised from new teacher evaluations coming down the legislative pike. Some districts, including Seattle Public Schools, have adopted better evaluations.

The newer evaluations are still untested and in most cases not even through the legislature yet. Let’s impose them!

The only employees left to fear performance-based layoffs are those who aren’t performing. That’s not who the governor should be protecting.

Or teachers who think perhaps the system won’t work as advertised. Maybe, just maybe, teachers think that the same legislature that’s been slashing education budgets doesn’t have the best interests of children we’re trying to educate at heart.

Open Thread

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– I know I’m just a filthy hippie blogger or whatever. Sure HA has accused people of fucking pigs. But at least none of us have given an elected official the TMZ treatment. As the kids say, time for a blogger ethics panel.

– Nixon is Fixin’

– Another reason why Seattle should fish or cut bait on White Center annexation. I hope they keep both libraries open (h/t Ivan on Facebook).

– Vulnerable User Bill signed!

– Hexapod Haiku! (h/t)

De Lurk Day

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The comment threads are dominated by just a few people. Some are great, some are trolls. Some are somewhere in between. But there are a lot of people who don’t comment. So, here on a lazy Saturday is a chance for those of you who don’t comment or don’t comment much to say “hi.” Or don’t: who in their right mind would want to interact with some of the commenters. Comments from regulars will be deleted.

Cannabis Freedom March

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A very late notice here, but I’m scheduled to be speaking sometime between noon and 1pm today at the Cannabis Freedom March in Volunteer Park. After the march, I’m supposed to be on a panel in Westlake Park with Alison Holcomb and Douglas Hiatt speaking about cannabis laws. If I’m sitting in between them, I’ll be wearing a full suit of armor to protect myself.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Maddow: John Ensign OUT, Tom Coburn NEXT.

Stephen goes all flaggy on Donald Trump (via Slog).

Sam Seder: Teabaggers willing to trade debt limit for closeting gays.

Young Turks: Gov. Mitch Daniels de-funds Planned Parenthood.

Thom: Wisconsin Wingnuts rush to pass agenda.

Maddow: Republican social issues.

Pap w/Andy Kroll: Who is pushing the G.O.P. anti-labor agenda?

Obama Bin Gotten:

Thom interviews Gov. Jesse Ventura on various conspiracies.

Cenk debunks Rep. Boehner’s bullshit.

RapperGate:

Sam Seder: Conservatives vote their conscience ignorance.

Mike Huckabee “fixes” American History (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Torture Chronicles:

Thom on Florida’s latest War on Democracy.

SCTV: Skype gets Binged.

Newt the Kook:

Sam Seder: Congressional Wingdings back way off on destroying Medicare.

Ed and Pap: Boehner’s debt fight shows GOP’s greed.

Lawrence O’Donnell: The tragedy of Alaska’s Sarah Palin; The ‘Drilla From Wasilla’ is a hopeless ‘disasta’.

Delaware Gov signs civil unions bill into law.

Fracking:

Sam Seder: FCC Comish Baker hired by Comcast/NBCU after voting for Comcast/NBCU merger.

ONN Live: Congress debates new sex-based American dream.

Thom: Pima County Dems move to secede from Arizona.

Immigrants for sale (via OneGoodMove).

White House: West Wing Week.

Maddow: “Big Brother’s” War on Women in South Dakota.

Romney Runs…From His Own Record:

Maddow: Unemployment and how Florida GOP Gov. Rick Scott takes ‘Big Government’ to new heights.

Cenk: C-Street, The Family & Coburn’s Ensign cover-up.

If Atlas Shrugged trailer was honest (h/t Carl Ballard).

The Paul Family Circus:

Young Turks: Megan McCain’s PSA makes Glenn Beck vomit.

Maddow: “Family values” ex-Senator Rick Santorum covered for John Ensign.

Thom: Should the Koch brothers be making hiring decision for university professors?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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